AFL 2019 - AFL Round 7

Who Covers the Line This Week?


  • Total voters
    28
  • Poll closed .

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mouncey2franklin

Premiership Player
Jun 16, 2018
3,438
4,797
AFL Club
North Melbourne
I wanted to see just how many lines actually got covered, so using the data in the opening post for every rounds thread I got these results. The outcome of close lines was by consensus. e.g if the margin was 10, and more than half the listed bookmakers had -10.5 or over, then it did not cover.



2019 so far looks a bit different...



So far in 2019, 15 matches have had a line of 19.75 or more. 14 of those 15 failed to cover the line. This week 5 games have lines of 19.75 or more.

Lines covered by margin this year:
0.25 - 9.75: 7 of 17
9.75 - 19.75: 11 of 22
19.75 - 29.75: 1 of 9 (Adel v. GC)
29.75 - 39.75: 0 of 6
Thanks for taking the time to put this together and share it with us. Much appreciated.

If I am understanding it correctly, what this all means is that if you back the underdog at the line, you're probably going to win.

Of course past outcomes don't equal future outcomes etc, but this seems to be the trend so far this season.
 

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JuniorWatch

Club Legend
Jun 13, 2016
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Is De Goey to kick a goal in the first quarter for $3 at Lads a good promo?
Edit: he's named in the middle and the pies have dumped a mid in Varcoe and brought in a fwd in Elliot so maybe a possession overs bet might be the way to go for JDG.
 
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chrisdon16

Premiership Player
Mar 20, 2013
3,306
2,178
Launceston, TAS
AFL Club
Essendon
Was lingering around here the back end of last season and remember that you were killing it. Curious to hear your point of view for this game as it seems different to mine?
Before Carlton's outs, had them winning it by 22. But talking straight footy, at the moment North are probably the worst team in the comp based on form (along with the dees). Whilst Carlton are actually playing pretty good, their confidence is rising. At the moment it's a toss of the coin game with Carlton's outs. Can't see North winning it by 3+ goals. Only 2 weeks ago the blues smashed the dogs by 44 and were very impressive last week.

The outs are being slightly overrated. McGovern will hurt the structure a bit up forward, he's a presence but he was very quiet in the Dogs game and they still belted them. Kreuzer is the big out, could be the difference between a win and a loss. It's going to be a fascinating contest.
 

maskmcgee

Club Legend
Feb 25, 2017
2,982
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The Windy Apple
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Essendon
Thanks for taking the time to put this together and share it with us. Much appreciated.

If I am understanding it correctly, what this all means is that if you back the underdog at the line, you're probably going to win.

Of course past outcomes don't equal future outcomes etc, but this seems to be the trend so far this season.
You can interpret it in several ways. You can assume that this is a trend that will continue throughout the season. You could interpret it that that 2018's 49.49% of lines being covered was no accident, and they set these lines intentionally to reach pretty much 50% win, 50% lose. I would think that we will see the bookies adjust their lines by making them smaller, to get more lines covered and to restore the 50% balance, which would mean that taking overs in either the short term or for the rest of the season could be more profitable. I mean if every team was covering their lines comfortably, you would expect them to make the lines larger, wouldn't you?
 

NonPhixion

Shevchenko's Bullet
Mar 27, 2018
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Is De Goey to kick a goal in the first quarter for $3 at Lads a good promo?
Edit: he's named in the middle and the pies have dumped a mid in Varcoe and brought in a fwd in Elliot so maybe a possession overs bet might be the way to go for JDG.
De Goey has kicked a goal in the first qtr 4/6 times so far. I would say the promo is decent value. Varcoe has been playing half-fwd, so Elliot coming in is a like for like swap. He’s been named to start in the middle a few times. I dare say that even if he does, he will spend a good time forward in the 1st. Cox is out so I highly doubt they will play him predominantly mid.

Early plays so far:
WHE 2+ @3.10 & 3+ @9 b365
Mitch Lewis 2+ @6.50 Sb
Gresham 2+ @5 Sb
Josh Kelly O28.5 @1.94 Sb
Tomlinson 20+ @2.20 Sb
 

Robo87

Club Legend
Aug 3, 2014
1,145
934
Adelaide
AFL Club
Adelaide
0.5u Ben Long 2g+ @6.5 SB (ave 1.25g/game)
0.2u Ben Long 3g+ @19 b365
come on the baker's sausage rolls again:
1u Baker 2g+ @4.20 sb
0.5u Baker 3g+ @9.50 b365
1u Taranto ags @2 lads
0.4u Taranto 2g+@7 b365
0.1u Taranto 3g+@23 b365
- tailing Non's WHE, M lewis goals above with 1u for 2g+ and 0.3 for 3g+
0.2u M Lewis 3g+@20 sb
 

targett

Club Legend
Aug 31, 2008
1,306
963
Gold Coast
AFL Club
Collingwood
I wanted to see just how many lines actually got covered, so using the data in the opening post for every rounds thread I got these results. The outcome of close lines was by consensus. e.g if the margin was 10, and more than half the listed bookmakers had -10.5 or over, then it did not cover.



2019 so far looks a bit different...



So far in 2019, 15 matches have had a line of 19.75 or more. 14 of those 15 failed to cover the line. This week 5 games have lines of 19.75 or more.

Lines covered by margin this year:
0.25 - 9.75: 7 of 17
9.75 - 19.75: 11 of 22
19.75 - 29.75: 1 of 9 (Adel v. GC)
29.75 - 39.75: 0 of 6
Im assuming this is opening soft lines from the low limit bookies.The line can move a fair bit from open to the closing most efficient point of the market... and a time the big investors get involved.Closing lines from the big players topsport,pinnacle,BF would make for interesting perusal. None the less thanks for the time taken to post.
 

Mazza1234678

Brownlow Medallist
Dec 2, 2017
18,364
8,311
AFL Club
Collingwood
What’s people’s thoughts on this swans v lions game?

I can see it is gonna piss down in Brissy on Saturday, does this bring the swans back into it? Or are they just that sh*t Brissy still win at home?

Haven’t watched much of either team
 

targett

Club Legend
Aug 31, 2008
1,306
963
Gold Coast
AFL Club
Collingwood
What’s people’s thoughts on this swans v lions game?

I can see it is gonna piss down in Brissy on Saturday, does this bring the swans back into it? Or are they just that **** Brissy still win at home?

Haven’t watched much of either team
Sydney is ranked quarter by quarter
16th Q1
10th Q2
15th Q3
14th Q4

Winning only 9/24 qtrs
 

Ohh Ok

THE BEAST
Jul 31, 2018
666
729
AFL Club
Adelaide
3u Treloar Under 112.5 fantasy $1.88 (PB)
2.5u Grundy Under 112.5 Fantasy $1.88 (BE)

Port have been very restrictive when it comes to opposition mids this year. Only Cripps (114), Neal (135), Gaff (114) have cleared this margin this season. Additionally there are rumours of Treloar undergoing scans on his shoulder this week and was in possible doubt for selection, and although he has been deemed fit to play this could mean some more time spent forward or even see him become more reluctant to tackle which would see him score less points.

No ruckman has scored over 100 vs port this year and after the number Port did on Gawn it will be interesting to see if they take a similar approach against Grundy tonight.
 
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targett

Club Legend
Aug 31, 2008
1,306
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Gold Coast
AFL Club
Collingwood
W-L and score percentages since start of 2017

SYD & McVeigh 24-11 - 124.7% when McVeigh in the side
SYD & McVeigh 6-12 - 89.4% when McVeigh misses
 

Maveric

All Australian
Aug 15, 2009
701
923
AFL Club
Richmond
W-L and score percentages since start of 2017

SYD & McVeigh 24-11 - 124.7% when McVeigh in the side
SYD & McVeigh 6-12 - 89.4% when McVeigh misses
Does look compelling, but I'm going to put that in the fluke category. McVeigh would be worth 1-2 points absolute max in line betting at this stage of his career.

That being said I reckon Sydney will fall to 6-13 without him
 

RooTed

Senior List
Oct 25, 2017
194
96
AFL Club
North Melbourne
At Marvel tonight I've already taken 1u Pies-Port TGS o166.5 but have been looking at these for a couple of days and now adding them. I like Port.

1u Port Adelaide o70.5 $1.75 at BE
.5u Port Adelaide o80.5 $2.56 at BE

GL
 
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JuniorWatch

Club Legend
Jun 13, 2016
1,222
1,682
AFL Club
Essendon
At Marvel tonight I've already taken 1u Pies-Port TGS o166.5 but have been looking at these for a couple of days and now adding them. I like Port.

1u Port Adelaide o70.5 $1.75 at BE
.5u Port Adelaide o80.5 $2.56 at BE

GL
Interesting.
Port haven't scored below 80 this season.
But the Pies haven't conceded more than 80 all season either.

Also if you like the Treloar shoulder/playing forward theory...
Under 31.5poss, 2+ goals = $13.75 @ SB
 

the_big_sav

Premiership Player
May 29, 2003
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770
Melbourne
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North Melbourne
Other Teams
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5u coll u39/hawks u39/bris -16/rich u39/gws -16 system 3

2.5u coll 20-39/hawks 1-24/bris -25/rich 1-24/wc -60 system 2

2.5u coll u39/wc -40/gws -25/bris -16/rich u39 system 3

2.4u coll u39/ rich u39/ bris -24/ gws -24/wc -40 system 3

*at tab
 
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HTPunter

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 27, 2014
5,379
6,403
AFL Club
North Melbourne
0.25U Hoskin-Elliott FGS, boosted at Lads to $17.

Deep forward. Not sure if he starts on the ground but I think with no Cox his overhead marking means he'll be used where possible.

0.15U Tom Phillips FGS @ $34

Kicked the first goal twice last year in the H&A season, and the Pies first 3 times.

De Goey has kicked 5.5 in first quarters this year so I don't mind the $3 on offer from Lads. These specials in my experience are a bit of a trap (do they have some knowledge about expected midfield time etc) but I had a good week last week so don't mind putting 1U on it.

0.5U Callum Brown AGS @ $2.1. 3.5 in 4 games this year, missed an absolute sitter last week but he does get opportunities.
 
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