List Mgmt. 2019 Draft Prospects

[Mofra]

Curious as to people's opinions about Luke Jackson vs Tim English. I think it may have been in one of the Callum Twomey videos that Luke Jackson is referenced as "going to be the best ruckman going around in a few years time" (I'm paraphrasing there just a bit). I thought our Timmy was going to be that player. Thoughts?

I think English will be better based simply on his disposal (elite) and he's started to use his height advantage to take marks around the ground.
Either way we're comparing a pick 18 who has exposed form at AFL level to an untested pick 3 who is the same height as Stef Martin, and shorter than any other no 1 ruck option in the competition.

Jackson may grow, but even Grundy is 2 inches taller as it stands (and again, was a pick in the teens).

 

[LittleG]

Curious as to people's opinions about Luke Jackson vs Tim English. I think it may have been in one of the Callum Twomey videos that Luke Jackson is referenced as "going to be the best ruckman going around in a few years time" (I'm paraphrasing there just a bit). I thought our Timmy was going to be that player. Thoughts?

Jackson is more aggressive and imposes himself physically more than English. He will be a better round the ground ruckman during ruck contests. On the other hand, Timmy is a better handball, kick, endurance and height. Timmy is much better outside the contest, Jackson better inside the contest.

 

[LoveDamoBarrett]

I don't know how he tested, but he certainly plays quick, real quick. He was starting a bit behind most draftees but had some really impressive moments at VFL level. Just has 'something' that looks like it would translate well to AFL level. Still has work to do but that high forward/wing role would suit him as he'd really add outside speed to our side.

what is that something? very excited about him now!

 

[LoveDamoBarrett]

Robertson is an interesting one. Ranges on so many people's boards because of his strong contested game/poor disposal think he is very similar to dunkley in that way

Dunkley is a gun. Robertson maybe more of a Luke Dunstan type.

 

[Virgin Dog]

Robertson is an interesting one. Ranges on so many people's boards because of his strong contested game/poor disposal think he is very similar to dunkley in that way

One thing I'm still struggling to understand is how Robertson slid "because of his disposal" yet Serong goes at 8 despite being probably the worst kick of anyone taken in the first round. Robertson won the Larke medal, and is one of the best leaders from the draft class.

 

[TBOW]

Curious as to people's opinions about Luke Jackson vs Tim English. I think it may have been in one of the Callum Twomey videos that Luke Jackson is referenced as "going to be the best ruckman going around in a few years time" (I'm paraphrasing there just a bit). I thought our Timmy was going to be that player. Thoughts?

I get the feeling Melbourne are hoping that Jackson will be that tall forward relief ruck to play alongside Gawn.
A bit strange given his lack of exposure to forward craft but I guess clubs often draft on potential rather than production.
I remember Twomey saying at some point in regards to Jackson and Melbourne, that people he had spoken to believed he could be their best key forward starting from next year - which struck me as odd at the time.

 

[weltschmerz]

Using pick 3 on potential for a different position seems weird.

 

[LittleG]

I get the feeling Melbourne are hoping that Jackson will be that tall forward relief ruck to play alongside Gawn.
A bit strange given his lack of exposure to forward craft but I guess clubs often draft on potential rather than production.
I remember Twomey saying at some point in regards to Jackson and Melbourne, that people he had spoken to believed he could be their best key forward starting from next year - which struck me as odd at the time.

That statement about Jackson being their best kpf is an indictment about Melbournes kpf. Jackson has barely played there. Dees play a KPD and a third tall as kpf, so I guess it’s not surprising he may be the best one from round 1.
I thought Jackson would make a great developmental KPD, as his traits fit a KPD better. Less need for the mental development of route concepts and leading patterns a kpf must learn. Dees obviously don’t think he needs that mental side of the game to fit in their game plan.

 

[Yojimbo]

Using pick 3 on potential for a different position seems weird.

Simon Goodwin did an interview where he said he was looking forward to seeing Luke Jackson at the feet of
Max Gawn, he is only 4 cm taller than Patrick Cripps and much more mobile and agile so you never say no,
but it was still weird. I wonder who is going to tell Oliver, Viney, Brayshaw and Harmes of their demotion.

 

[Mojorisin]

One thing I'm still struggling to understand is how Robertson slid "because of his disposal" yet Serong goes at 8 despite being probably the worst kick of anyone taken in the first round. Robertson won the Larke medal, and is one of the best leaders from the draft class.

I expected serong to slide further

 

[weltschmerz]

I expected serong to slide further

I think they wanted to team up two mates in Serong and Young, for retention reasons.

 

[TBOW]

I think they wanted to team up two mates in Serong and Young, for retention reasons.

It's funny that people are so concerned about drafting for list needs - I'd be much more concerned about drafting for retention.

I see it as a massive positive that a high quality player in a position of need was available in the draft in the range of our first pick.
Draft for the now now. Draft for the future next year.

 

[weltschmerz]

I see it as a massive positive that a high quality player in a position of need was available in the draft in the range of our first pick.

And from what I’ve seen, really excited to be with us, not just to be on an AFL list. Also really positive.

 

[Yojimbo]

List Exposure (NAB/TAC) Players % Of Total List: (Ladder Format)

Carlton: 71.11 %
North Melbourne: 63.64 %
St Kilda: 60.00 %
Essendon: 60.00 %
Western Bulldogs: 60.00 %
Collingwood: 57.78 %
Richmond: 47.73 %
Adelaide: 46.51 %
Melbourne: 45.45 %
Sydney: 44.44 %
Hawthorn: 44.19 %
Geelong: 43.48 %
Port Adelaide: 42.22 %
Brisbane: 39.13 %
GWS Giants: 37.77 %
Gold Coast: 32.00 %
West Coast: 27.91 %
Fremantle: 26.67 %

The numbers are skewed a little by annoying players who nominate their local clubs or schools and colleges,
but only very slightly. As far as WAFL, SANFL, VFL, NEAFL and academy zones numbers as well as recruiting
dominant go to zones well you will just have to wait for the next episode or buy the book.

 

[Yojimbo]

List Exposure (WAFL) Players % Of Total List: (Ladder Format)

West Coast: 55.81 %
Fremantle: 44.44 %
Richmond: 18.18 %
Brisbane: 17.39 %
St Kilda: 13.33 %
Western Bulldogs: 11.11 %
Sydney: 11.11 %
GWS Giants: 11.11 %
Geelong: 10.87 %
Hawthorn: 9.30 %
Port Adelaide: 8.89 %
Carlton: 8.89 %
Gold Coast: 8.00 %
North Melbourne: 6.82 %
Collingwood: 6.67 %
Adelaide: 4.65 %
Melbourne: 4.55 %
Essendon: 4.44 %

Makes sense for the West Australian clubs to focus on local talent to lessen the go home factor, but it also
extends to their trading focusing on a extremely high percentage of former West Australians. Location
location does not just apply to real estate so it seems.

 

[weltschmerz]

Fun little watch. Would have been funny if they'd gotten Weightman in there too.

(Apparently the girls in the shop voted Lachie Ash the best looking of the top 10 draft picks.)

 

[Yojimbo]

List Exposure (SANFL) Players % Of Total List: (Ladder Format)

Port Adelaide: 37.78 %
Adelaide: 30.23 %
Sydney: 17.78 %
Geelong: 17.39 %
Gold Coast: 16.00 %
Hawthorn: 13.95 %
Collingwood: 13.33 %
Essendon: 13.33 %
Fremantle: 13.33 %
Melbourne: 11.36 %
Brisbane: 10.87 %
Richmond: 9.09 %
North Melbourne: 9.09 %
GWS Giants: 8.89 %
Western Bulldogs: 8.89 %
West Coast: 6.98 %
St Kilda: 4.44 %
Carlton: 0.00 %

Once again the local teams atop the ladder which is no surprise really, but it must be hard for junior players
in the smaller states who don't play championships or are in the AFL academy system to have eyes on them
so to speak. Of the last twenty number one picks in the draft only Bryce Gibbs and Adam Cooney are from
South Australia and David Swallow is the sole West Australian.

 

[Mofra]

I remember Twomey saying at some point in regards to Jackson and Melbourne, that people he had spoken to believed he could be their best key forward starting from next year - which struck me as odd at the time.

Very weird - KPF at AFL level is a different beast. A lot of KPFs at junior level struggle with zones/seasoned KPDs making life hard for them.

 

[Yojimbo]

2019 Draft (Through the looking glass) 65 players taken in the National Draft:

TAC/NAB Cup: 35/65 = 53.85 %
WAFL: 14/65 = 21.54 %
SANFL: 10/65 = 15.38 %
VFL: 1/65 = 1.54 %
Northern Academies: 4/65 = 6.15 % ( 2 x Richmond)
Scotch OC: 1/65 = 1.54 %

 

[dogwatch]

2019 Draft (Through the looking glass) 65 players taken in the National Draft:

TAC/NAB Cup: 35/65 = 53.85 %
WAFL: 14/65 = 21.54 %
SANFL: 10/65 = 15.38 %
VFL: 1/65 = 1.54 %
Northern Academies: 4/65 = 6.15 % ( 2 x Richmond)
Scotch OC: 1/65 = 1.54 %

Were there any other NGA players drafted, or was it just the Northern Academies (two of which didn't get matched)?

 

[weltschmerz]

Were there any other NGA players drafted, or was it just the Northern Academies (two of which didn't get matched)?

Liam Henry, Biggy Nyuon (though he wasn't matched). Isaiah Butters, Leno Thomas, and Harrison Pepper were rookied.

 

[dogwatch]

Liam Henry, Biggy Nyuon (though he wasn't matched). Isaiah Butters, Leno Thomas, and Harrison Pepper were rookied.

Which academies were each of those from? And are they in addition to the four that Yo-jim-bo mentioned?

 

[weltschmerz]

Which academies were each of those from? And are they in addition to the four that Yo-jim-bo mentioned?

Henry, Butters, Thomas: Fremantle
Nyuon: St Kilda
Pepper: Hawthorn

 

[Yojimbo]

Were there any other NGA players drafted, or was it just the Northern Academies (two of which didn't get matched)?

Sorry dog-watch, but Liam Henry was WAFL from Claremont and Bigoa Nyuon was Dandy Stingrays and
classified as TAC/NAB even both were NGA in the National Draft. My point was more based on the %
chances of being drafted and is part of a much larger study. As usual posting little glimpses does not
give the full picture, but take it from me it's fascinating and very revealing for some of the more random
players drafted, let us say that clubs like going back to the well if they trust the system.

 

[dogwatch]

Thanks guys. My interest is in the NGA numbers because that's going to be where the next big AFL utensil-up controversy will take place. Next year's NGA numbers will be even bigger I think, especially as they may include some first-rounders.