Analysis 2019 List Management Discussion

[murphster]

The list is starting to look in a lot better shape but I wouldn't be surprised if any of Lobbe, Cuningham, Pickett, Le Bois, Goddard, Bugg, Thomas, Simpson, Phillips, Kerr or Lang were delisted next year. Obviously they won't all go but I'm still expecting about 8 changes.

Cunningham was on the verge of becoming a great player in 17 if not for injuries would have had a better 18, no way in hell he gets delisted. Or Kerr for that matter.

 

[murphster]

It’s quick movement into the fwd line that puts pressure on defences. If they piss fart around with the ball going in it’ll come straight back out. The new 666 rule will benefit the teams that can get quality clearances to their fwds quickly.Foe example I think Collingwood will be dangerous in this area with Grundy so dominant and Sidebottom,Beams,Treloar and Pendlebury all superb center clearance players.

Yep and we have some of the best contested marking forwards in the competition waiting with baited breath for that quick clearance to give them a one on one. And one of the best clearance players ever teaching our youngsters as well as Kreuser who takes it out of the ruck probably more than any other ruckman and is now allowed to do it without penalty. 666 benefits us just as much if not more.

 

[katmanblue]

Garlett was a good pick up for us.....his shoulder was a mess a lot of 2018 and played with one arm
Showed plenty and we will see more of him in 2019 and beyond
has a good work ethic....good footballer

That last bit is great to hear

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[katmanblue]

I would love it to be Stocker!!

So say we all.



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[katmanblue]

It was 2 x 2nd rounders and Shane McAdam (that many pundits rated to be drafted in the 20’s), not exactly peanuts.

Especially considering McAdam was probably the exact type that we are crying out for.

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[katmanblue]

Under appreciated post even at four minutes old

Left a taste like chocolate and cheese in my mouth.

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[katmanblue]

Not so sure about that .
Fyfe is a footballer first , he stepped into the half fwd flank as a skinny kid in his first year and showed an amazing footy IQ early.
Add to that his amazing athletic ability and hard work ethic and you've got yourself the best player in the league 5 yrs down the track ..

So glad we picked Kane instead.

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[katmanblue]

Deal seems a bit McHeavy to me.

I am sick of being the butt of opposition supporter's jokes. For this, though, we'll undoubtedly be McRibbed

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[Soapy V]

May make for a harsh reality, but reckon somehow Bolton will be buoyed to hear this and even more so, to watch the proof in the pudding, come to be. - That is when our players finally get AFL fit.

This is a good thing and if Russell did say this (and I have no doubt to think he wouldn't have) he has now put down his mark of where he feels things should get to. Now he just has to do it and we can start to see the giys that really want to make it, be in the game for the full 4 quarters+

Yet the young players thought they were training hard. Amazing how a change in understanding, expectation and attitude can make what you're doing seem average. They now can't believe how hard they are training and it's great.

The timing of getting Russell will be a turning point. He is able to get these kids early and not in there 5-6th years. Unbelievably valuable. We will see benefits in 2019 but 2020 is when it will really take effect

 

[Doro]

Yet the young players thought they were training hard. Amazing how a change in understanding, expectation and attitude can make what you're doing seem average. They now can't believe how hard they are training and it's great.

The timing of getting Russell will be a turning point. He is able to get these kids early and not in there 5-6th years. Unbelievably valuable. We will see benefits in 2019 but 2020 is when it will really take effect

The movement/change has to be the one constant it seems. We had a massive amount in 2015 and then slowed in the last year. Liddle and Lloyd seem to be the impetus for the next phase. Bring it on imo.

 

[gbatman]

It might sound bad but it's good hearing that Andrew Russell found our young players terribly unfit. Gives a great scope for improvement and shows that we have a very important person who knows his stuff employed. I think lack of fitness has been showing. The jump from going to no high performance person to one of the best should be massive.

 

[Funk]

Humourise

I would be interested in his track record, rating McAdam, that high after not being drafted 5 odd years in a row, makes me curious

Tim Kelly?

 

[Funk]

May make for a harsh reality, but reckon somehow Bolton will be buoyed to hear this and even more so, to watch the proof in the pudding, come to be. - That is when our players finally get AFL fit.

This is a good thing and if Russell did say this (and I have no doubt to think he wouldn't have) he has now put down his mark of where he feels things should get to. Now he just has to do it and we can start to see the giys that really want to make it, be in the game for the full 4 quarters+

There seem to be plenty here thinking the sun shining out our young players arses could solar power an entire city.

There is a reason Carlton were so poor late in quarters and games last year. There will also be reasons why we suffered so many injuries. Lack of fitness is the obvious reason and youth alone does not cut it as an excuse. Posters need to take their rose tinted glasses off.

Clearly there are more than a few senior people at Carlton worried about some of our young players "commitment" to being the very best they can.

I'm seriously supportive of the direction the club is going - but I'm not blindly believing the plan is coming along perfectly.

 

[Metalcrusher]

There seem to be plenty here thinking the sun shining out our young players arses could solar power an entire city.

There is a reason Carlton were so poor late in quarters and games last year. There will also be reasons why we suffered so many injuries. Lack of fitness is the obvious reason and youth alone does not cut it as an excuse. Posters need to take their rose tinted glasses off.

Clearly there are more than a few senior people at Carlton worried about some of our young players "commitment" to being the very best they can.

I'm seriously supportive of the direction the club is going - but I'm not blindly believing the plan is coming along perfectly.

No plan is perfect Funk …… just the senior leadership being committed enough to see it through.

 

[katmanblue]

Initially thought the same, but the reality is that Cuningham hasn't been able to get out on the ground to show what he's capable of where as players like Fisher, Dow and LOB hardly missed a game in their first seasons.

I'm still confident Cuningham will be a valuable player.

I agree with you about Cuningham's ability. Though at some point, probably fairly soon, that potential won't be outweigh his seeming inability to get healthy. Time will tell.

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[Catfish blue]

I agree with you about Cuningham's ability. Though at some point, probably fairly soon, that potential won't be outweigh his seeming inability to get healthy. Time will tell.

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One of the biggest disappointment for the Club. Cunners has just way too much talent to be wasted.

 

[Funk]

Agree. I have said it all along that if you finished 12th and up, you would take Rankin at 1. If Rankin fulfils his potential, his ceiling is higher than Walsh. Walsh is a safe bet that is almost a guaranteed gun.Rankine is highly probably to becoming a superstar FOR THE CROWS

 

[Mondyboy]

Murphy not as captain, I think, will revitalise his career. Pressure off, can focus on himself and doing the best in the role he’s given.


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[DIG]

Yeah if Murph gets a nice uninterrupted pre-season he could really be revitalised this year.

 

[The Smoking Gun]

I'm hoping 2019 will be the year our youth begins to leave their imprint on side and best 22 transitions from this:

B: Docherty, Jones, Plowman
HB: Marchbank, Weitering, Simpson
C: SPS, Cripps, E.Curnow
HF: Pickett, C.Curnow, Thomas
F: McGovern, McKay, Fasolo
R: Kreuzer, Kennedy, Murphy
IC: O'Brien, Dow, Walsh, SOSOS.
E: Polson, Cuningham, Newman​

To at the end of the season resembling something more like this:

B: Docherty, Weitering, Plowman
HB: Marchbank, Macreadie, Williamson
C: Walsh, Cripps, O'Brien
HF: Dow, C.Curnow, Fasolo
F: SPS, McKay, McGovern
R: Kreuzer, Kennedy, Fisher
IC: Setterfield, Murphy, Stocker, Simpson
E: E.Curnow, Jones, Garlett.​

While that second 22 isn't definitive by any means, I'd be concerned about our coaching, development and fitness programs as well as our vision going forwards if our side isn't approaching something resembling that. Injuries, form and naturally varying rates of development will also play their part, but that's to be expected.

Notes:

• Andrew Russell is the wild card in many ways. Looking forward to seeing if the physical and mental fitness programs he introduces accelerates the development of our youngsters. Will they also help to make the group more durable???
• Newman will be right in the hunt with Plowman and Williamson for a spot in the back six. I think he's a better quality of player than Lang, Smedts, etc.
• Would like to think Macreadie will be big enough and fit enough to edge Jones out at some point next season.
• The new 666 rule will require HBs to be mobile, intercept and have good endurance levels. A HB line of Macreadie, Marchbank & Williamson should be able to provide that. They're all quick, have good tanks and use the ball pretty well.
• Probably the first time I can remember not being concerned about the quality and quantity of our contested mids going forwards. One of the questions I do have is can we play all of Cripps, Setterfield & Kennedy in the same side??? None of them are particularly quick although it will be interesting to see how much better Kennedy moves with a full preseason under his belt and injury-free.
• Fasolo will be competing against Garlett, Cuningham and perhaps one of Setterfield or Kennedy for a spot. I have him in ahead of Pickett, Cuningham, Garlett and Lang due to his stronger scoreboard impact.
• It will be interesting to see if Bolton prefers TDK to Phillips or Lobbe should Kreuzer get injured. Might be a bit much of an ask in 2019, but wouldn't be surprised if that was the case in 2020.
• Couldn't find a spot for SOSOS. Was used all over the park at AFL & VFL levels last year trying to find a position for him. The acquisitions of Setterfield and Stocker have slammed the doors shut on an inside midfield role and he's not mobile enough to push Plowman, Marchbank or Williamson out of defence. Really needs to make it as 3rd tall forward.
• If I was going to pick one of Pickett, Cuningham, Garlett or Lang to make it then I'd choose Garlett. Of the four I think he has the most rounded game, a reasonable endurance base and the one being most likely to be able to accumulate while being able to impact both the game and the scoreboard. Needs to show he can get to the drop of the ball (front and square of contests), exert defensive pressure, create play and can find his own ball when required. Will need to work his arse off to get a game though.

Needs Going Forwards:

• Two Ruckmen. One already mature and ready to go, even it's a back-up for TDK and another young one for development. It maybe that we draft one to develop next year and have a crack at Grundy as a FA in 2020. I don't see Lobbe or Phillips as medium or longterm solutions and Kreuzer struggles to get off the ground these days.
• Midfielders. We need another 3-4 and two of those must have genuine speed. Murphy & Simmo are getting towards the end while none of Cuningham, Garlett, Lang or Polson are any guarantee to make it as midfielders at AFL level. I'd be looking for balanced or outside types with wheels who can find their own ball when required and aren't afraid of contact.
• Two small forwards with genuine speed and maybe some aerial prowess. Yes you can spend high picks on them such as Ainsworth and Rankine, but plenty of the best ones have been taken mid-draft or later. Betts, Walters, Zorko (was ignored for ****ing years, literally), Charlie Cameron, Fantasia & Puopolo just to name a few.
• Another small or medium running defender with genuine speed and excellent disposal by foot.
• Two genuine KPPs, one forward and one defender. I'm not talking about 193cm 3rd talls that people like to pretend are KPPs, but mobile players approaching 200cm+ who can take contested marks, make sound quick decisions and move the ball on.
• You'd still need 3 years to acquire all those players, but it shouldn't stop our march up the ladder. Nor will we be able to keep them all, but that's sort of the aim as far as I'm concerned. You want the list to self-generate. People carry on about GWS' TPP issues, but is it really that big of an issue having to trade some to them out??? If you think it is then just go and have a look at who they've drafted in 2016, 2017 and 2018.

Coaching & Admin

• Think the club would admit it made a mistake moving Neil Craig on without having a proper replacement lined up. I'm not sure whose decision that may have been, or how much say Bolton had in it, but it is good to see the club identify the problem and move to correct it. I think Russell will prove to be a valuable addition.
• As a follow on from the previous point, it's probably time to move Barker on. I don't just think it will be beneficial to the club, but also Barker himself if he really wants to become a senior coach. A year or two under Fagan or Longmire might just be the last tick he needs on his resume to achieve his aim.
• I liked the appointment of Brad Lloyd to replace Andrew McKay. Has extensive experience in List Management and some in Coaching so I think he'll bring new things to the Head of Football position that McKay couldn't.

 

[The Smoking Gun]

I've dragged it over to here TW as it's more List Management than unpopular opinions.

Lang, Cunningham, Garlett and maybe Pickett are looking like the busts imo. Which is a worry leading into Point 5 ie pace.
5. Yes we do.

These players, plus Polson, have very important years coming up. I'm not confident on any of them. Hopeful, but not confident.

I'm rapt with the core of our young list now. It is pretty complete now after adding Walsh. Now that our young core is in place, for the next 2 years we add speed, speed, speed imo.

I know you wanted to somehow add Smith this year, and i would have preferred RCD to Stocker. Both of us for added speed reasons largely. But i'm very happy with what we've assembled now as core and i know you are too.

Speed is the logical last component to add. That's the next 2 years trade/draft. Phase 3 if you like.

So here's the question to consider TW. Do you think they'll be busts because they're not good enough or they won't make it because our list now has better options available for selection??? Or is it combination of both???

For me:

• Pickett - Doesn't want it enough. Bust
• Polson - Better options now available to select from
• Lang - Probably not talented enough - Bust
• Cuningham - Better options now available to select from
• Garlett - There are other options available to select from that are just as good, if not better, that may want it more.

These were all players we were hoping would come on last season, and if fit, most would've made your best 22. Now we've added McGovern, Newman, Setterfield, Fasolo, Stocker, Walsh, etc, so Pickett, Polson, Lang, Cuningham & Garlett get shuffled further back towards the rear of the deck. Is it a bad thing though??? Yeah a couple of them will be busts or not good enough, but I think it also says as much about the evolution of our list.

As the quality of the personnel on our playing list improves we raise the bar of expectation ever higher........but not just of the quality of the players on the field. For example, would you be happy if SOS continued to trade players of Smedts, Gorringe, Lang and Lamb quality or have your expectations changed where you now expect SOS to be trading in players of the McGovern, Newman and Setterfield calibre as a minimum standard now??? See how the bar of expectation has now been lifted???

The club is evolving as a whole and it can be challenging managing change on such a massive scale. Go too fast and it gets away from you, because you don't have resources in place to manage it properly. Go too slow and nothing gets achieved. When viewed in an evolutionary context, I think the club is heading in the right direction and is in pretty good hands.

 

[thylacine60]

Unless Rankine has attitude problems that will prevent him from fulfilling his potential or will fly the coop at the first opportunity then I agree with the spotty twerp.

I can begrudgingly concede that Carlton would value Walsh over the two best talls for different reasons but a player with Rankine's particular strengths doesn't come around too often and it's not as if he wouldn't be a perfect fit for our forward line. I would never have allowed Gold Coast to get so much silk through the door with its first three picks. The fact that we took another 'pure mid' with our surprise trade puts an extra spin on the situation and it makes me want to revisit our decision to overlook Stephenson and/or Fogarty last year. We roughly have one starting midfielder too many (even without including Murphy) and are deficient in quality small to medium forwards. It seems a bit of a tactical blunder by the club as it seems that we are cutting the edge off the potential talent we bring through the door.

I'm tipping the first game you watch Walsh play will instantly erase any thoughts of this post, paf........

 

[Monkey King]

Twomey also said in a recent podcast that "clubs are a lot harder to get information from now than the past"

Live trading = more smoke and shadows behind the window.

 

[Sector 7G]

I'm tipping the first game you watch Walsh play will instantly erase any thoughts of this post, paf........

I liked in the Carlton Show were it was mentioned that Doc went up to Bolts day one of training and said words to the effect of "We have got one here" with Walsh.

 

[TerryWallet]

I've dragged it over to here TW as it's more List Management than unpopular opinions.


So here's the question to consider TW. Do you think they'll be busts because they're not good enough or they won't make it because our list now has better options available for selection??? Or is it combination of both???

For me:

• Pickett - Doesn't want it enough. Bust
• Polson - Better options now available to select from
• Lang - Probably not talented enough - Bust
• Cuningham - Better options now available to select from
• Garlett - There are other options available to select from that are just as good, if not better, that may want it more.

These were all players we were hoping would come on last season, and if fit, most would've made your best 22. Now we've added McGovern, Newman, Setterfield, Fasolo, Stocker, Walsh, etc, so Pickett, Polson, Lang, Cuningham & Garlett get shuffled further back towards the rear of the deck. Is it a bad thing though??? Yeah a couple of them will be busts or not good enough, but I think it also says as much about the evolution of our list.

As the quality of the personnel on our playing list improves we raise the bar of expectation ever higher........but not just of the quality of the players on the field. For example, would you be happy if SOS continued to trade players of Smedts, Gorringe, Lang and Lamb quality or have your expectations changed where you now expect SOS to be trading in players of the McGovern, Newman and Setterfield calibre as a minimum standard now??? See how the bar of expectation has now been lifted???

The club is evolving as a whole and it can be challenging managing change on such a massive scale. Go too fast and it gets away from you, because you don't have resources in place to manage it properly. Go too slow and nothing gets achieved. When viewed in an evolutionary context, I think the club is heading in the right direction and is in pretty good hands.

I think you've covered it pretty well there on the macro and the micro.

On the micro, yeah individually i don't think any of "the pacey 5" are basically good enough going forward. It's one thing to get gigs in a terribly lacking team but when the competition for spots increases then the ones lacking will start dropping off. We have already seen the basic deckchairs nearly all drop off. Next we will see the ones lacking out of the hopefuls drop off.

Levi aside, no-one left on our list gives me conniptions, but there are still ones that lack the necessary imo. Cunners, Garlett, Lang and Pickett have all got some AFL pure ability but there are rather large holes in all 4's complete packages imo. I see many already in front of them and going further in front. I guess it is up to them to get something more out of themselves. Time is short for them because of the rest of the large pack who offer better imo.

Polson is a bit different where he basically has shown me nothing as an AFL player other than chasing hard. Ironically this may give him more hope than the more talented above quartet. I'm not quite sure whether Polson will be just a little sheepdog type and nowhere near good enough for a reasonable AFL side, or he comes on as a Puopolo type terrier thru hard work and endeavour. I think the former, but there's hope for the latter maybe.

It is our pacy guys that to me look the most in trouble. I'm ecstatic with our young KPP's and TDK, ecstatic with our young mids and ecstatic with Doc and Willo off HB. I just think we've got a bit of filling out to do with the list now after some fantastic foundation work. I reckon anyone we target in the next 2 years will have pace.

It goes without saying that i hope the players i haven't got a lot of hope for prove me wrong.