Analysis 2019 List Management Discussion

[Soapy V]

I like your optimism but clearly it is very hard, the last 2 years end of season trading have shown it. We have chased players and missed out. That said I hadn't considered free agency end of this season which is a free hit for us to get another mature player and the time is very right.

We've also landed a lot of players and picks. This year will be solely focussed on mature players. All good

 

[AB_Blue]

They have been as have Fisher Cuningham etc. It's all part of the rebuild.

Get the mature support and they can be rotated through and work on things in the reserves. When we can do that we are in a great position.

Yes i agree totally

But why couldn’t be see that last year?

Besides Shiel who else could we of targeted ?


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[Soapy V]

Yes i agree totally

But why couldn’t be see that last year?

Besides Shiel who else could we of targeted ?


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I'm sure we targeted others but can't do it all at once. It's frustrating given our current performances but it will turn around. I have NO DOUBT we will bring in what we need this off season

 

[murphster]

Yep. Don't need to be Guns but that would be better. IMO we have the elite players coming through.
We can get a number of very good players via trades/FA and also through the draft

I'd be going after Ellis & Cuningham with everything I had.
Touk Miller, Papely or Martin would be great
Is North going to rebuild? If so I'd go after Cunington. Perfect for us
Names like Jong Lester or Townsend as examples would be available fairly cheap. Big bodies who will do a job.
Jye Bolton or similar through the draft or rookies
We will also have the money and 2 possible first round picks to entice other clubs

I also believe we will bring in the right mature players over the next 2-3 seasons. Get 4-6 this year and we are in a good spot.

We don't need anymore youth. They just need help

Your right Soap I know it and anyone else with a brain knows it, but can we hold off the Sack Bolton crowd for long enough to achieve what we know is possible and probable. That’s my concern.

 

[gbatman]

100%. Put it down on paper and we have the young talent. What we need now is the hard mature bodies to help get them through.

We desperately need ball winners.

Names like you mentioned in Crisp, Greenwood didn't cost that much. Up to SOS & Co to get them. A gun would be awesome but getting the others will be just as important. We really don't need that much and hopefully we can get some quality late in the draft as well

Two really good mature mids would lift us a long long way.

Our list is young and there are a few we are banking on being good who aren't looking likely and so be it, that always happens.

You look at Hawthorn's drafting history Xavier Ellis (pick 3), Beau Dowler (pick 6), Mitch Thorp (Pick 6) one was ok the other two were busts. Didn't stop them from becoming a great side with sustainable success. They very much rebuilt their core through the draft. Admittedly it was done in the 16 team comp with priority picks and no free agency so they had more going for them but still, they used a hell of a lot of early picks, half were genuine stars, some were just good solid players and some were busts and they still got there.

We start bringing in some genuine quality over the next few seasons. Add some tough and strong ball winners to this side and the rest learn to feed off them and that is when the ship will turn.

My worry is that we get into next season's draft/trade/free agency period and can't get the mature ager players or make poor decisions and go for fringe players who aren't that good. My worry is that we can't get what we need.

Spent a lot of time watching the top sides over the last few years bringing in top ready made young players from other clubs and waiting until we can get to that stage where we can do the same and hoping that we can.

I'm sure money won't be the issue, it's when the other top clubs come knocking as well and the real good players want success and go to them.

One thing we can't afford to do is get caught up in the whole youth thing now and not chase good players because we have early draft picks with potential. If we get really lucky next season and guys like Dow, Setterfield, Kennedy etc can't get a game because of that then great.

We also need to get to a point where we are able to start trading out players as well, not to mention we have a few guys who are best 22 who are well in their 30's and replacing them must be a part of our rebuilding plans.

 

[Soapy V]

Your right Soap I know it and anyone else with a brain knows it, but can we hold off the Sack Bolton crowd for long enough to achieve what we know is possible and probable. That’s my concern.

I have faith in MLG and the direction. For all the outside noise they haven’t deviated. Internally it’s a very impressive group and I trust them.

The outside stuff is purely noise

 

[F_therest]

I have faith in MLG and the direction. For all the outside noise they haven’t deviated. Internally it’s a very impressive group and I trust them.

The outside stuff is purely noise

I wouldn't be surprised if we have put feelers out though...in a way doing a bit of ground work on a contingency plan IF we have to part ways with Bolton.

The club is backing Bolton right now, but if we win 0-2 games for the rest of the season and get smashed in a few of them, we could definitely part ways for 2020. As Judd said on FC last week, the club has a plan and see Bolts as the long-term coach of the club, but we can't guarantee his position...used an off the cuff example of if we got smashed by 100 points every game then obviously they'd have to reconsider.

It is undeniable the club expected us to be doing far better than we are this year, according to the plan. From the live trade we did and what we've said in the media...Judd also said on FC he expected we'd have a better W/L record at this stage of the season, as i'm sure we all did.

 

[murphster]

I have faith in MLG and the direction. For all the outside noise they haven’t deviated. Internally it’s a very impressive group and I trust them.

The outside stuff is purely noise

It’s not so much MLG and co soap that worries me it’s people like Bruce Mathieson and his pokies money that tend to exert pressure, if I knew those types where on board I’d be happy, but I don’t and that concerns me, I just wish Pratt was still alive then I would feel comfortable.

 

[gbatman]

Cunnington would be great, not sure he is in the right age bracket if we are going to spend quality picks though. Maybe just. He's certainly the right type but you would thing a rebuilding team would not want to let a player like that go. In saying that getting good players has a snowball effect when it comes to getting more good players. You get a Cunnington who is 27 years old and that might help attract other good players the following seasons. Especially as that player helps you win more games.

Would firstly be targeting younger more premium inside mids. Fiorini, Taranto guys like that. One thing Collingwood did that's really worked for them is target guys who are young and big ball winners and have strong bodies without being slow.

What we need is a free hit, we need it badly. Either a real early priority pick (which we can hopefully use to trade) or a really good free agent.

 

[AB_Blue]

I'm sure we targeted others but can't do it all at once. It's frustrating given our current performances but it will turn around. I have NO DOUBT we will bring in what we need this off season

Make or break for [emoji722] this one. If he can get a 25 year old A grade mid......marvellous


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[murphster]

Cunnington would be great, not sure he is in the right age bracket if we are going to spend quality picks though. Maybe just. He's certainly the right type but you would thing a rebuilding team would not want to let a player like that go. In saying that getting good players has a snowball effect when it comes to getting more good players. You get a Cunnington who is 27 years old and that might help attract other good players the following seasons. Especially as that player helps you win more games.

Would firstly be targeting younger more premium inside mids. Fiorini, Taranto guys like that. One thing Collingwood did that's really worked for them is target guys who are young and big ball winners and have strong bodies without being slow.

What we need is a free hit, we need it badly. Either a real early priority pick (which we can hopefully use to trade) or a really good free agent.

Mate with all the carry on about us only winning 4 games in 40 or whatever it is if we don’t get a priority pick no one ever will again.

 

[rog1995]

We have a first round this year and a 3rd rounder plus later picks
Then we also have next years picks
I think we will go heavily will all up for grabs

Trade next years first as well?? Gee you'd want to land a gun to be trading any future first rounders. Ideally via free agency. Can we convince Cognililo and Ellis?

 

[gbatman]

I've done the figures for what we are doing. It's a 7 year rebuild with 5 years of pain. We are in our fourth year. If we get to the 6th year and there's no good results then we can give someone else a go, at least we should have a young foundation with players coming through.

The players need to be able to play and do basic footy things like win the ball and compete physically and demonstrate good skills before the coach can be judged.

The list manager needs to have enough time to bring in the required amount of good players to have a good list before they can be judged.

So far we've still got some ways to go before getting there.

It's an easy equation. You need to be able to bring in 25-30 good players and most of them need to be in their prime age (22-30) for your list to be good.

I had us winning 5 games this season give or take a couple, it's turned out a lot of the other bottom sides have improved a little and we have lost a few real close games. We might still win around 5 games. Lost to port by 16, Swans by 19, Gold Coast by 2, Hawthorn by 5, Collingwood by 19, Saints by 13 and we beat the bulldogs easily so we've been close. Essendon, Bulldogs, Fremantle, Melbourne, Sydney, Gold Coast and St kilda still ahead of us we might still get there. If we achieve this then I think this has meant we have met our quota for improvement. only have to win 4 and get our average losing margin to around 25 to double our improvement on last season and to me this would be a good result.

People who think the coach is the problem are effectively saying that we should have been able to bring in 25-30 good players aged mostly between 22-30 years old in 4 years. That or they don't know what they are talking about. It seems like mindless ranting to me. We simply haven't had enough time to put that list together and have it in the right age bracket. It's just how it is, the AFL have made changes the last few years which has extended the time frame it takes to do what we are doing.

I would be worried if we had a list of players who were 22-30 or older and the team sucked which is what Ratten and Malthouse had. I think when we get to this point in another 2-3 years time that our list will be fine and we will be winning plenty of games.

We're at a point now where we can start to recruit players who will have an immediate impact, it's just a matter of whether we can actually get these players to Carlton. If we can them our improvement will be rapid but if not then we will be very sluggish and this is my concerne.

Yes Brad Scott as a senior assistant would be great. He's probably like many coaches, he's an alright coach but just at a club that's failed to build him a list.

I don’t think we have to worry about losing the kids. They are in a dream environment where they are probably getting paid more than they would anywhere else, you are nearly guaranteed AFL games and you are at a big Melbourne club. They have time on their hands so winning isn’t as big of a priority as it is to older players.
Bolton certainly hasn’t lost this group yet though which is why he will most likely keep his job.
On successful clubs not changing personal I’m not sure about. hawthorn have lost nearly every assistant coach they have had. Geelong and Sydney changed coaches seamlessly. Even if Bolton stays on next you would imagine he and SOS are the only two blokes we haven’t changed over the last 4 years. Like getting Russell last year, change can sometimes be just what is needed.

Changing the engine when you have flat tyres and a broken tailshaft is pointless. That's what we would be doing. I've seen people make changes before because there's a problem and can't figure out what the problem is or they do know what the problem is but are unwilling to address it. If the change doesn't address the problem then the change is pointless and at best only brings temporary joy. Pass on that. We need to focus on what is wrong and what we need to do.

Sydney and Geelong situation was more a succession plan, not one made out of failure. I think it proved that any old coach can win a flag at the right club with the right people and players there. Something we clearly don't have yet.

The success of teams such as Hawthorn, Geelong and Sydney stems from years and years of good list management and recruiting and the new environment the AFL has created which allows the better clubs better access to the better players. Something again we have not had time to build.

 

[gbatman]

Mate with all the carry on about us only winning 4 games in 40 or whatever it is if we don’t get a priority pick no one ever will again.

It could be the ace in our deck of cards.

I still think we will end up winning just a few too many games this season but it would be the boost we need if we went to the draft/trade period with Adelaide's first, our future first and a first round priority pick.

There's no talk of it but you are 100% right. If we win under 5 games and don't get one then it's truly gone. Especially for Carlton.

The top sides run the system, if we got one Jeff Kennett and Eddie McGuire would be at Gills door the next morning to reverse it. They have a system that keeps them up the top and they don't want newcomers.

Free agents, forced trades (because of free agency) and players getting to chose where they go for the top clubs. Scraps for the rest.

Let the top clubs force other clubs into trading their best players and using free agency to get players for stuff all but heavens forbid handing out a priority draft pick to a club down the bottom...

The AFL is a disgrace.

 

[Kruezing]

We can’t ever get a priority pick ... Whately won’t agree to it ... we traded away pick one ... we have potentiallly the best list of all time ... blah blah blah ... but the real reason is because we are irrelevant ... completely and utterly ... unfortunately ...

 

[thylacine60]

you're just getting this when?

 

[Soapy V]

Swans picked another Ruckman. Chance to grab one of theirs?

 

[Vamos Juddamente]

Not saying we push someone out, Soap - but it's naive to think that none of these young guys will be tempted by a big money offer from a club that can also offer a chance at playing in a few more wins every year.

I understand you're mail is that the group is tight, and everyone's bought in, but things change and all it takes is a strong offer and maybe someone decides they've had enough. If that happens, better for it to be at a time when we can control the deal and benefit as much as possible.

Charlie, Pick 14 and future pick out.
Whitfield, Dunkley and Papley in.

It would hurt seeing Charlie in another jumper, but if it helps land two high quality midfielders who can rack up the ball, we're so far ahead it's not funny.

Ok so Charlie decides we are going nowhere and bails out yet at the same time Whitfield decides to join.....

 

[Bokan]

Swans picked another Ruckman. Chance to grab one of theirs?

1 Darcy Cameron would be lovely

On CPH1877 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Gavstar]

Swans picked another Ruckman. Chance to grab one of theirs?

I’m suspicious they could have drafted him for his trade value at the end of the year.

 

[bigblueboy]

Good to see Palmer and Anderson remain at Northern. Will help the VFL remain competitive.

 

[KingCripps]

If I see anymore trade Charlie's I am going to go insane. Play Charlie in the guts and put Kerr in the goal square with MM and Harry as the other key forwards.

Trade Crows pick for Cunnington - immediately makes us better. Trade next year's first for another top range mid.

Demand a priority pick in the first round from the AFL. Demand it.

This should create three new mids for next year - Charlie, Cunnington and X. Plus whichever mid we pick with pick 1 (or worst case settle for a pick before the finalists). Side immediately looks better.

 

[Soapy V]

Next years midfield will make a massive difference

Cripps

Further development and a Russell pre season into Dow SPS Fisher Cuningham Walsh Stocker Kennedy Gibbons O’Brien Setterfield Lang will make a massive difference even if only a few percent each

Now add a 23-24 old in DeLuca

Then add the likes of Cuningham Jong Ellis and maybe a Cunnington or Menegola and it’s more than competitive.

 

[murphster]

I've done the figures for what we are doing. It's a 7 year rebuild with 5 years of pain. We are in our fourth year. If we get to the 6th year and there's no good results then we can give someone else a go, at least we should have a young foundation with players coming through.

The players need to be able to play and do basic footy things like win the ball and compete physically and demonstrate good skills before the coach can be judged.

The list manager needs to have enough time to bring in the required amount of good players to have a good list before they can be judged.

So far we've still got some ways to go before getting there.

It's an easy equation. You need to be able to bring in 25-30 good players and most of them need to be in their prime age (22-30) for your list to be good.

I had us winning 5 games this season give or take a couple, it's turned out a lot of the other bottom sides have improved a little and we have lost a few real close games. We might still win around 5 games. Lost to port by 16, Swans by 19, Gold Coast by 2, Hawthorn by 5, Collingwood by 19, Saints by 13 and we beat the bulldogs easily so we've been close. Essendon, Bulldogs, Fremantle, Melbourne, Sydney, Gold Coast and St kilda still ahead of us we might still get there. If we achieve this then I think this has meant we have met our quota for improvement. only have to win 4 and get our average losing margin to around 25 to double our improvement on last season and to me this would be a good result.

People who think the coach is the problem are effectively saying that we should have been able to bring in 25-30 good players aged mostly between 22-30 years old in 4 years. That or they don't know what they are talking about. It seems like mindless ranting to me. We simply haven't had enough time to put that list together and have it in the right age bracket. It's just how it is, the AFL have made changes the last few years which has extended the time frame it takes to do what we are doing.

I would be worried if we had a list of players who were 22-30 or older and the team sucked which is what Ratten and Malthouse had. I think when we get to this point in another 2-3 years time that our list will be fine and we will be winning plenty of games.

We're at a point now where we can start to recruit players who will have an immediate impact, it's just a matter of whether we can actually get these players to Carlton. If we can them our improvement will be rapid but if not then we will be very sluggish and this is my concerne.

Yes Brad Scott as a senior assistant would be great. He's probably like many coaches, he's an alright coach but just at a club that's failed to build him a list.



Changing the engine when you have flat tyres and a broken tailshaft is pointless. That's what we would be doing. I've seen people make changes before because there's a problem and can't figure out what the problem is or they do know what the problem is but are unwilling to address it. If the change doesn't address the problem then the change is pointless and at best only brings temporary joy. Pass on that. We need to focus on what is wrong and what we need to do.

Sydney and Geelong situation was more a succession plan, not one made out of failure. I think it proved that any old coach can win a flag at the right club with the right people and players there. Something we clearly don't have yet.

The success of teams such as Hawthorn, Geelong and Sydney stems from years and years of good list management and recruiting and the new environment the AFL has created which allows the better clubs better access to the better players. Something again we have not had time to build.

Spot on gbatman our thinking aligns perfectly on time frame and the rest. Just been looking at Cunningtons numbers on the afl site he is 2nd or 3rd to Cripps in Clearances, Contested possessions, Possesions, Centre Clearances and Stoppage Clearances the only area he is down is in tackles. They are Ranked 8&9 in the AFL.
Carey just said on talking footy no player should be off the table at North, he is 27 so I think our pick in the first round from Adelaide and maybe something else should get it done.
Imagine Cripps and Cunnington on the inside feeding out to the speedsters on the outside wowee that would make a massive difference to our team and our win/loss rate, those 2 at centre clearances late in games forget about losing the close ones the oppo would never get the ball.

The club needs to get on the front foot and go hard at Cunnington now until the end of the year.

 

[Mr_Plow]

Next years midfield will make a massive difference

Cripps

Further development and a Russell pre season into Dow SPS Fisher Cuningham Walsh Stocker Kennedy Gibbons O’Brien Setterfield Lang will make a massive difference even if only a few percent each

Now add a 23-24 old in DeLuca

Then add the likes of Cuningham Jong Ellis and maybe a Cunnington or Menegola and it’s more than competitive.

To be fair, we've said similar for the last few years but we still continue to get smashed through the middle.

I'll wait for it to happen before looking too far ahead. There's every chance multiple players aren't able to do pre-seasons and we are back at square 1.