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AFL 2020 - AFL Round 16 (no aftertiming allowed)

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squeaky1000 said:
I like the thinking and it's probably value but I just don't think I can bring myself to bet on Kennedy, he is so far from AFL standard its not even funny. Hope he goes well for you though
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fair enough i thought he was alright. 15 shouldn't be too hard for him vs the crows you'd think. i probably like perryman way more but no place has him in any of the disposal markets.
 
OhhDeledio said:
whitfield o23.5 @ 1.87 lads. 9/13 not including KO game.
adam kennedy 15+ @ 2.08 lads. 2/3 not including round 1 injury.

crows on average give up the 3rd most uncontested possesions in the comp which will suit both players. whitfield is whitfield, and kennedy has been the giants main wingman since his return. went through the games and he has started on the wing 46 times out of the 66 center bounce resets in there last 3 games. should be good for 15 at least.
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Where did you get the wing stats from, is it on afl statspro?

Mcgovern Goals > Mccartin $2.60 lads (Mccartin back last week)
 
bato said:
Is anyone taking Adelaide ML?
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I can't believe most in this thread are being sucked into GWS yet again. They were awful against Carlton with 2 goals at 3/4 time and somehow managed to fall over the line. To me the Freo win is a bit of an outlier as they have failed to score 50 points in 3 of their last 4 games. Their midfield has also taken a hit losing Kelly, Perryman and Williams drive off HB.

Adelaide have been awful this year but I think coming off a confidence boosting win, having an extra 2 days break and playing at home, they are good value.
 

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FadingTheFave said:
I can't believe most in this thread are being sucked into GWS yet again. They were awful against Carlton with 2 goals at 3/4 time and somehow managed to fall over the line. To me the Freo win is a bit of an outlier as they have failed to score 50 points in 3 of their last 4 games. Their midfield has also taken a hit losing Kelly, Perryman and Williams drive off HB.

Adelaide have been awful this year but I think coming off a confidence boosting win, having an extra 2 days break and playing at home, they are good value.
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Giants with their 3rd game in 9 days, traveling from Perth to Gold Coast now to Adelaide and with major outs too.

Should be an interesting game.
 
rwandandream said:
sucks that we no longer have Beteasy. Looks like Pointsbet are offering quite a heap of prop markets though, probably the next best thing.

Has anyone tried betting on their spreads? Some of the stuff like stat multipliers look really cool (Kicks * Handballs * Goals)
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yep ive bet on their spreads. Haven't had too much of a winning run on the AFL spreads but some of the bets are what I consider to be almost risk-free. eg Back 4 goals or more in the 1st half for some teams.
 
OhhDeledio said:
fair enough i thought he was alright. 15 shouldn't be too hard for him vs the crows you'd think. i probably like perryman way more but no place has him in any of the disposal markets.
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He can find a bit of footy its more so ball in hand he is way out of his depth. Decent enough bet though probably, Perryman not playing thats why you can't find him
 
FadingTheFave said:
I can't believe most in this thread are being sucked into GWS yet again. They were awful against Carlton with 2 goals at 3/4 time and somehow managed to fall over the line. To me the Freo win is a bit of an outlier as they have failed to score 50 points in 3 of their last 4 games. Their midfield has also taken a hit losing Kelly, Perryman and Williams drive off HB.

Adelaide have been awful this year but I think coming off a confidence boosting win, having an extra 2 days break and playing at home, they are good value.
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Agree, GWS for three quarters last game played some of the worst football I've seen this year, and thats saying something. Yes we know they are capable of far better when they're on but there's no guarantees we will see them anywhere near their best this season given what they've been dishing up.
Crows are obviously horrible but they have started to show a couple more positive signs in recent weeks and I'd expect them to be competitive enough at least for a fair part of the game. Don't really see how you could bet on either team with any level of confidence.
 
The outs for GWS are quite big: Daniels, Perryman, Mumford, Zac Williams . Feel like they are slightly weakened in defence without the run of Zac Williams and will be weaker in the ruck department.

Not sold that Adelaide can run out matches well in 2nd half. The 2nd halves have been their achilles heal this season.
 
NYRB said:
The outs for GWS are quite big: Daniels, Perryman, Mumford, Zac Williams . Feel like they are slightly weakened in defence without the run of Zac Williams and will be weaker in the ruck department.

Not sold that Adelaide can run out matches well in 2nd half. The 2nd halves have been their achilles heal this season.
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If Greene plays you win. I’ve just gone that way this year- no Toby no hope
 
The thing with Adelaide is that their mistakes come from positive footy. GWS lock themselves in their backline and refuse to play attacking footy. Value bet IMO.
 
Riccardi 2
Cameron 2
Fogarty 2
Walker
@20

Reid
McGovern
Wicks
Blakey
Parker
@35

20 bonus
McGovern 2
Reid 2
@11.25

And just about my favourite tonight, ive gone a couple of units on Hayden McLean AGS @2.15 lads. Will be playing essentially full forward with Sinclair in the ruck for the most part. Kicked one last week too.
 

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If Adelaide win, it helps their draft prospects, because they have the Giants' first rounder this year.

My point being that they definitely have something to play for.

GWS have played some of the trashiest football this season of any team, and the AFL have given them a nightmare schedule leading into this one.

They're missing star players, and none of the four ins this week are anything special, while Williams out is a big blow.

I'm sensing a good old fashioned boilover in this one.
 
mouncey2franklin said:
If Adelaide win, it helps their draft prospects, because they have the Giants' first rounder this year.

My point being that they definitely have something to play for.
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I may be in the minority here, but Clubs dont play for draft positions in these situations.

Sure maybe if Pick 1 was on the line, but I dont believe the Crows are motivated by GWS falling down the ladder.

GWS being flakey, 3rd game in 9 days, traveling all over Australia in that time and with their injuries would be the primary reasons IMO.

Crows should cover the +19.5 earlier line.
 

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Adelaide - $100 on Over 52.5 points at $1.91

The crows look a different side with Matt Crouch now applying mid field pressure and Brad Crouch back playing well. Sloane being there has added confidence to a few of their younger players as well. GWS have cost me a lot of money this year and I'll be staying away from them today.
 
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Crows beat the Giants last year at Adelaide Oval. Have a good record against them 5-1 at Adelaide Oval.

I think Adelaide is a good bet to win the 1st or 2nd quarter if not both.
 

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AFL 2020 - AFL Round 16 (no aftertiming allowed)

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