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AFL 2020 - AFL Round 18 (no aftertiming allowed)

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West Coast thanking Sydney right now....


A draw would be a good result for Eagles, disaster for Geelong.
 

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Hopefully Paps nabs another one here but Syd are the 18th worst 4th qtr teams vs Geel who are 2nd.

Mate he should have kicked 4...he’s missed from 10m out

Mug is going to cost me
 
Beware of backing goals in the Freo v Bulldogs game. Freo know the Bulldogs are playing for Finals, and will try play the 'party pooper' role. Freo night games (after 6pm) are notoriously low scoring this season.

I have tabulated the Freo record playing night matches in 2020 and having followed them pretty much all season, I don't see them opening up in Cairns tonight. (The other 2 games have opened up with the Swans/Hawks/Gold Coast trying to whack some goals to please their fans)

I have also compared it against the rest of the competition for night scoring in QLD. With Freo not playing that much in QLD , due to being based almost half the season in the WA hub. I don't see this as a high scoring game. The line is set at 112.5 points and I am quite confident with the humidity at around 70%, and approaching over 80% by the end of the game, there will be a bit of dew about which will make the ball hard to handle.
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The average for Freo night games all season is 88.40, with the median at 82.50. Other games in QLD (not involving Freo), have had an average of 119.60 pts. Be confident this will be cagey and the Dogs will be made to fight for their goals. The difference in averages between Freo night games and the rest of the comp at night in QLD matches is almost 5 goals.
 
3u WB 1-39 @ $1.76 (365)
2.5u Hunter over 22.5 @ $1.85 (365)

No bullshit performance from the dogs, come in, get the job done and leave. Percentage not of concern. Freo a tough side to go 40+ against and conditions to suit.

Percentages for Hunter 6/8 on this one. With his misses coming in round 1 and last week. Line has been as high as 25.5 for him this season.
 
Have taken a bet on the Smarkets Betting Exchange for Under 113.5 pts between Freo v Bulldogs paying $1.88.

Sportsbet line is down to 111.5 pts as I speak. (gone down from 113.5 earlier in the day)
 

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Taberner out, so gone with Hogan AGS, Lobb AGS & Henry AGS $13.63 Lads
Taberner out is a bit of a blow for the Dockers. He has been their best forward this season.

Confident it will be a low scoring game, with opportunities for the small forwards to potentially top goalscorer.
 

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AFL 2020 - AFL Round 18 (no aftertiming allowed)

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