AFL 2020 - AFL Round 18 (no aftertiming allowed)

[ShaunWDT]

Brisbane v Carlton Bets
O McInerney AGS $2.75 TAB
Cameron AGS, McKay AGS & Martin AGS $3.67 NEDS

McInerney is a ripper bet, likely plays half a game forward with Martin fit.

 

[Bazza97]

Brisbane v Carlton Bets
O McInerney AGS $2.75 TAB
Cameron AGS, McKay AGS & Martin AGS $3.67 NEDS

Also used my bonus bet on the Cameron AGS, McKay AGS & Martin AGS Multi but with McInerney AGS in there as well Lads $9.48

 

[andwhenitcomes]

Something small on Dylan Clarke AGS @ 3.50 (Topsport), hit in 3/7 playing mostly forward this year

 

[tangolikelama]

Melb h2h
Ridley 15+
Viney 15+
Laverde AGS

@5.45

McInerney AGS
Lions h2h
McCluggage 15+
Curnow 15+

@4.75

Caddy 2+ @8.50

 

[RooTed]

Like Bombers to win today or at least beat the 12+ line. Dees are flaky and don't deserve to make finals. Wooshas last game too. GL

On SM-G960F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Red Dog Styles]

Like Himmelberg (the good one from Crows) to kick a few snags today.

1+ 1.50 TAB

Or

Tex / Himmelberg 3+ 2.60 TAB

On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[FrankGrimes]

Like Bombers to win today or at least beat the 12+ line. Dees are flaky and don't deserve to make finals. Wooshas last game too. GL

On SM-G960F using BigFooty.com mobile app

Dee's need to win to have a chance to make finals, Essendon are crap at the moment, If Dee's cant win this they will never win again.

 

[Mazza1234678]

Dee's need to win to have a chance to make finals, Essendon are crap at the moment, If Dee's cant win this they will never win again.

Dees v Essendon is the definition of a stay the **** away game

Wouldnt bet with free money

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Melbourne 40+ @$5 SB

Essendon have already left for Bali.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Petracca 2
Weideman 2
Spargo 2

SGM @ $46 SB

 

[RooTed]

Essendon were smashed by Port and Cats. Both premiership contenders and love to bully. Dees are neither of that.

Dee's need to win to have a chance to make finals, Essendon are crap at the moment, If Dee's cant win this they will never win again.

On SM-G960F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[md20]

C. Oliver Most Disposals Gr1 $4 (SB)

I know he has been down a bit by his standards and is up against the likes of Merrett, but I'm happy to take a gamble with anything over $3 for a player like him in this market.

On SM-G965F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[dazzler1974]

Petracca 2
Weideman 2
Spargo 2

SGM @ $46 SB

We'll be lucky to kick 6 goals total the way we are playing!

 

[Lewis#3]

We'll be lucky to kick 6 goals total the way we are playing!

You kicked the equal highest score of the round last week. Can see a few goals in this one Essendon have checked out weeks ago.

 

[Sketi]

I like mookieb 's bet of Melbourne last quarter line -3.5. If the Dees are winning they do some downhill skiing in the last quarter. If they are getting beaten they suddenly wake up in the last and try and save the game.

 

[mac23]

Nothing to see here, just another stinky final round prayer minus the unreliable AGS bets...keep scrolling.

15+ Ridley, Saad
20+ Oliver, Petracca, Merrett, Parish
15+ Keays
20+ Laird, M Crouch
15+ Rich, McCluggage, Cripps, Curnow, Murphy
20+ Lyons, Neale, Walsh
$84 SB Boost

 

[Del125763]

Did a bit of a comparison for day v night matches at Metricon Stadium in 2020.

This is what I came up with:





The median for day games (games starting before 4pm) is exactly the same as the median for night matches. The IQR in night matches is larger- which is understandable as well. 50% of matches in totals in day matches land between 21 and 39.25 points, so i reckon if you can get around $2.00 that's value. Sports have this market for Points in the 1st QTR:


I'd want at least $3.75+ to land between 21-30 pts or 31-40 points.

Also of note, the average for day games is higher than the average for night games.

I have the projected total for Dees v Bombers landing between 114-128 points. But I don't know which Dees will turn up. Demons just need to win to give themselves a chance. A 10 goal win is just as useful as a 1 goal win, so beware of betting on margins on the Dees.

 

[NonPhixion]

Stringer 2+ $3.40
3+ $9.50 SB

 

[Bazza97]

We can definitely lose this, so I've gone Essendon SU $2.70 Unibet

 

[wally99]

Last round of the year, chasing value today, hopefully some goals

Laverde AGS
Stewart AGS
Spargo AGS
Hunt AGS
Pickett AGS
Weideman 2+
Package 2+
Tippa 2+

@ $2501 Sportsbet

 

[GROTTO]

I really need to look at opening my own book.

 

[BloodRet]

Daniher 4
Weideman 2
Brown 2
@103

Stringer
Laverde
Smith
Pickett
Brown
Weidemen
@32.25

Weidemen 2
Spargo 2
ANB
Brown
Fritsch
@38

Daniher 5
Weideman 3
@171

Laverde 3,4 @23,101

 

[Robo87]

Stringer 2+ $3.40
3+ $9.50 SB

stringer 2 and 3 is @3.50 and @11 on lads

 

[GROTTO]

Daniher 4
Weideman 2
Brown 2
@103

Stringer
Laverde
Smith
Pickett
Brown
Weidemen
@32.25

Weidemen 2
Spargo 2
ANB
Brown
Fritsch
@38

Daniher 5
Weideman 3
@171

Laverde 3,4 @23,101

I see you have gone for the Hail Mary approach to punting.

 

[andwhenitcomes]

Bit on Christian Petracca over 22.5 disposals 2 1.88 (Topsport), hit in 11/16 and looks like he's warming up with the mids