AFL 2020 Brownlow Medal

[Gazza Guru]

I’ve gone both jelly and Whitfield here. Small profit if either win and the risk is Greene winning.

Just on a high level summary - I have More confidence in jkellys ability to poll when he plays well he stands out and gets 2s and 3s.

A couple of Whitfields 1s and 2s could go elsewhere in my opinion only.

The blokes who did votes every game will have the best idea though

At GWS I have :

Whitfield 10.75 / 13
Kelly 6.75 / 9
Greene 5.75 / 7

Whitfield
R4 2
R5 1
R6 1
R7 and 8 small chance
R9 3
R10 1
R14 3
R16 1
R18 1

Kelly
R4 0 small chance
R5 1
R8 2
R9 2
R12 1
R13 1
R17 2

I don’t think that Whit is a lock but expect him to win the GWS votes.

In 2019 I had Whitfield 14 and he polled 12 so slightly off. Kelly 12 and he polled 11. Whitfield polled 16 in his breakout year in 2018 which adds confidence. Kelly polled massive in 2017 with 21 but only 10 in 2018.

 

[Gazza Guru]

Spot on with Butters influence. He and SPP were the 2 players willing us over the line in the last quarter. SPP with more pressure than anyone else and Butters being cleaner than everyone else.

I thought Wines was good early and then tailed off for the 2nd half when the game was to be won where as Rockliff and Mitchell had much bigger second half's when the game was tight.

That's from my memory though, I'd be keen to hear your thoughts re-watching the game.

Boak the clear 3 votes though.

In the Port vs Haw game I have Boak a very clear 3, Mitchell 2 and Butters 1. I didn’t even give Wines 0.5 so I don’t expect him to poll. I did give Rockliff 0.5 / 0 tho so had him next in line ahead of Wines.

 

[shepherdodin]

Spot on with Butters influence. He and SPP were the 2 players willing us over the line in the last quarter. SPP with more pressure than anyone else and Butters being cleaner than everyone else.

I thought Wines was good early and then tailed off for the 2nd half when the game was to be won where as Rockliff and Mitchell had much bigger second half's when the game was tight.

That's from my memory though, I'd be keen to hear your thoughts re-watching the game.

Boak the clear 3 votes though.

Okay the benefits from working from home means I can do what I want and catch up with work later. So I just watched this game again - Boak clear 3.

Was quite a close game - Port clearly the better team in the last quarter. But Mitchell and Worpel were best for the Hawks. Only think 1 Hawk polls and I think it will be Mitchell. Made lots of great tackles and was really busy in the contest, and influenced the game quite a bit. Particularly in the first half and the last term, was quiet in the third. I think he will get the 2.

The other poller will be one of Butters/SPP/Wines/Rockliff/Lycett/Worpel.

Butters made some huge smothers and the NIck Davis-like goal at the end was awesome. Great pressure early but was great in the last term. He might pinch it. SPP wasn't huge in the first 3 terms but was massive in the final quarter.

Wines was good in the first half, but was involved in lots of pressure moments in the second as well. Tackled really well. Went quiet for periods, particularly 3rd term.

Rockliff got a lot of the ball, was good inside, good pressure. I didn't notice him so much though, and I don't think he influenced the game as much as Mitchell did.

Lycett was quite influential, though there is a history of ruckman not doing so well - if that trend continues I don't think he'll poll this game.

Hard one.

If I had to choose after re-watching, I would agree with Gazza Guru and go:

3 Boak
2 Mitchell
1 Butters

Honestly a bit of a lottery. I don't think Rockliff gets the 2 though. Which makes me quite a bit more comfortable about both Mitchell pinching Hawthorn from Wingard and Wines getting 2nd for Port.

 

[Gazza Guru]

It’s interesting to hear the comment that Mitchell can pinch most votes at Haw from Wingard.
I have :
Mitchell 10 / 13
Wingard 2.75 / 5

Wingard breakdown since what he gets to being the important issue :

R1 3 - but not a certainty
R3 - 1
R4 - 1
R16 - small chance but 0

I can’t see for the life of me how he can get past a ceiling of about 6-7.

 

[shepherdodin]

It’s interesting to hear the comment that Mitchell can pinch most votes at Haw from Wingard.
I have :
Mitchell 10 / 13
Wingard 2.75 / 5

Wingard breakdown since what he gets to being the important issue :

R1 3 - but not a certainty
R3 - 1
R4 - 1
R16 - small chance but 0

I can’t see for the life of me how he can get past a ceiling of about 6-7.

This pleases me. A lot.

I have Wingard:
R1 - 3
R3 - 1
R4 - 3

That's your 7 ceiling. He was awful in the second half of the year. I had Titch on 10, but make that 11 now. I have Titch in lots of multis so happy days.

 

[Gazza Guru]

This pleases me. A lot.

I have Wingard:
R1 - 3
R3 - 1
R4 - 3

That's your 7 ceiling. He was awful in the second half of the year. I had Titch on 10, but make that 11 now. I have Titch in lots of multis so happy days.

Yes, I rate Titch one of the club locks but obv the short price not great so smart not to use in too many.
In the Round 4 game vs North I felt that the North guys can figure and found it a very hard game to vote.
I went :
Higgins 2 / 3
Goldy .5 / 1
Mitchell 0.5 / 1
Wingard 0.5 / 1
Worpel 0.5 / 0

I could not determine who gets the 2. I remember the game well and thought Higgins played a great game and was very silky with the ball in hand.

 

[Analysis Paralysis]

What does everyone think of the GWS vote count? Whitfield is into $1.90 on SB now and Jelly/Greene out to $4.00. I have it a lot closer than what the odds suggest.

Current GWS Team Votes:

Josh Kelly	9.40
Lachie Whitfield	8.80
Toby Greene	8.80

Would love to know what others think.

I have Kelly (10) and Greene (9) over Whitfield (6).

However, I have Greene getting all his votes in wins, whereas Kelly is 5/5 (votes in wins / votes in losses) and Whitfield is 2/4.

Whitfield is a no for me, and then toss a coin between Kelly and Greene.

 

[NYRB]

With regards to Nic Nat, umpires don't tend to pay him many votes . He has polled 12 votes over the last 6 years.

I had a look at the umpires who have decided Nic Nat's votes in games where has polled Since 2012 in the games where he has voted by the set of group of umpires:

(David Harris Margetts Dalgeish), (Margetts Chamberlain Bannister ), (Dalgeish Kamolins Ben Ryan), (Fisher Stephens Pannell), (Dalgleish Nicholls Meredith), (Rosebury Meredith Bannister), (Nicholls Mitchell Fila),( Dalgleish Fila McBurney ), (Margetts Rosebury Farmer)


The common link in those votes seem to be Dalgeish, Margetts and Nicholls in my opinion. Maybe Nic Nat has been nice to them/on good terms with them- which always helps? or they just catch the umpires eye a bit more?

Games where Nic Nat is expected to poll according to the Betfair Brownlow predictor: Rounds 5, 9 , 11, 12 ,13. TJM has him polling in rounds 13 and 17. Those 6 potential games where he could get votes, these are the following umpires:

Round 5 umps for Eagles game: Nicholls, Williamson, Dore
Round 9 umps for Eagles game: Dalgeish, Chamberlain, Power
Round 11 umps for Eagles game: Dalgeish, David Harris , Williamson
Round 12 umps for Eagles game: Margetts, Williamson, Johanson
Round 13 umps for Eagles game: Rosebury, Broadbent, Haussen
Round 17 umps for Eagles game: Gavine, Fleer, Hosking


The games with Nicholls, Dalgeish, Margetts , if past games are any indication- he may not need to woo or seek the required attention to get the votes.

 

[NYRB]

im on Sheed for top votes for WCE but after reading through the votes tally for Nic Nat and who gave him votes, starting to think Nicholls, Dalgeish, Margetts and to a lesser extent, Rosebury, will have some influence in the games he has played.

Like many posters on this thread here, Nic Nat is the X factor for the Eagles count this year. He could end up with a really low count or could be in the higher end. There is no middle ground with him.

Not sure if there is bias in umpiring, but Dalgleish is a Western Australian umpire. Rosebury has umpired alot of WAFL games. Magetts started his umpiring career in Western Australia. May have to keep that in mind when betting on games with Nic Nat and these umps.

 

[Sausage Legs]

Like many posters on this thread here, Nic Nat is the X factor for the Eagles count this year. He could end up with a really low count or could be in the higher end. There is no middle ground with him.

Why couldn't he get somewhere in the middle. Gets some, misses some. I reckon hell get 8 so that'll be about middle.

 

[jack 231]

With regards to Nic Nat, umpires don't tend to pay him many votes . He has polled 12 votes over the last 6 years.

I had a look at the umpires who have decided Nic Nat's votes in games where has polled Since 2012 in the games where he has voted by the set of group of umpires:

(David Harris Margetts Dalgeish), (Margetts Chamberlain Bannister ), (Dalgeish Kamolins Ben Ryan), (Fisher Stephens Pannell), (Dalgleish Nicholls Meredith), (Rosebury Meredith Bannister), (Nicholls Mitchell Fila),( Dalgleish Fila McBurney ), (Margetts Rosebury Farmer)


The common link in those votes seem to be Dalgeish, Margetts and Nicholls in my opinion. Maybe Nic Nat has been nice to them/on good terms with them- which always helps? or they just catch the umpires eye a bit more?

Games where Nic Nat is expected to poll according to the Betfair Brownlow predictor: Rounds 5, 9 , 11, 12 ,13. TJM has him polling in rounds 13 and 17. Those 6 potential games where he could get votes, these are the following umpires:

Round 5 umps for Eagles game: Nicholls, Williamson, Dore
Round 9 umps for Eagles game: Dalgeish, Chamberlain, Power
Round 11 umps for Eagles game: Dalgeish, David Harris , Williamson
Round 12 umps for Eagles game: Margetts, Williamson, Johanson
Round 13 umps for Eagles game: Rosebury, Broadbent, Haussen
Round 17 umps for Eagles game: Gavine, Fleer, Hosking


The games with Nicholls, Dalgeish, Margetts , if past games are any indication- he may not need to woo or seek the required attention to get the votes.

Thanks so much for this

 

[NYRB]

It would be fair to say Dalgleish grew up a Nic Nat supporter?

This is a bit of a coincidence but they both started their careers at the same time back in 2009.

 

[Gazza Guru]

With regards to Nic Nat, umpires don't tend to pay him many votes . He has polled 12 votes over the last 6 years.

I had a look at the umpires who have decided Nic Nat's votes in games where has polled Since 2012 in the games where he has voted by the set of group of umpires:

(David Harris Margetts Dalgeish), (Margetts Chamberlain Bannister ), (Dalgeish Kamolins Ben Ryan), (Fisher Stephens Pannell), (Dalgleish Nicholls Meredith), (Rosebury Meredith Bannister), (Nicholls Mitchell Fila),( Dalgleish Fila McBurney ), (Margetts Rosebury Farmer)


The common link in those votes seem to be Dalgeish, Margetts and Nicholls in my opinion. Maybe Nic Nat has been nice to them/on good terms with them- which always helps? or they just catch the umpires eye a bit more?

Games where Nic Nat is expected to poll according to the Betfair Brownlow predictor: Rounds 5, 9 , 11, 12 ,13. TJM has him polling in rounds 13 and 17. Those 6 potential games where he could get votes, these are the following umpires:

Round 5 umps for Eagles game: Nicholls, Williamson, Dore
Round 9 umps for Eagles game: Dalgeish, Chamberlain, Power
Round 11 umps for Eagles game: Dalgeish, David Harris , Williamson
Round 12 umps for Eagles game: Margetts, Williamson, Johanson
Round 13 umps for Eagles game: Rosebury, Broadbent, Haussen
Round 17 umps for Eagles game: Gavine, Fleer, Hosking


The games with Nicholls, Dalgeish, Margetts , if past games are any indication- he may not need to woo or seek the required attention to get the votes.

Very interesting research, well done !

I also have him polling in r3 and 15 plus an outside chance round 8.

Interesting that Margetts did r3 and Dalgeish r8.
R15 was Razor / Gavine / Mollison

 

[Gazza Guru]

Why couldn't he get somewhere in the middle. Gets some, misses some. I reckon hell get 8 so that'll be about middle.

I think that the point is that he is either “ on “ or he isn’t. He has played lots of similar games this year where if the umps reward him with votes that the trend will continue thru the count. Obviously if they are missing him then they may keep missing him.
Someone asked a while back who is the X factor like a Sidey / Brayshaw this year and I picked Nicnat as mine. I certainly don’t suggest he can run top 3 but I expect him to surpass the expectations of most.

 

[DeliciousBagel0]

Hi All,

Have pored over the comments in this forum and gotten team vote summaries of everyone that I've been able to find who's done comprehensive tallies. Each sheet represents a different commenter's votes, and I've also thrown in the Betfair tally. Am keen to add other tallies so anyone with one feel free to send through and I'll add it.

The final sheet I've gotten each person's tally, and then averaged the votes for individual players to find what the general consensus is. It's obviously somewhat flawed, as some people didn't include particular players in their counts, so I just ommitted those counts and they don't contribute to the averages. The worksheet is also pretty messy. If we get more people submitting tallies though, the larger our sample, the more accurate it should hopefully be. Will attach link below. It's also pretty messy but in the sheet labeled 'Aggregate', you basically can scroll to the right and you'll see most notable players. I didn't bother with Richmond as I don't want to touch that market.

 

[Young Gun #6]

I just looked at how many each of the top guys I have polling in each game for WC:

Gaff = 10 Games (albeit no clear 3 vote games)
Kelly = 4 Games (2 clear 3 vote games)
NicNat = 6 Games (1 clear 3 vote game)
Sheed =4 Games (1 clear 3 vote game).

I had Gaff 13.5
Nic Nat 11
T.Kelly 10.5

If in 4 of the games i have Gaff polling 1 or 0.5 he doesn't poll at all, he still is a very clear threat (only 0.5 behind Nic Nat) of winning that count imho.

 

[DeliciousBagel0]

Hi All,

Have pored over the comments in this forum and gotten team vote summaries of everyone that I've been able to find who's done comprehensive tallies. Each sheet represents a different commenter's votes, and I've also thrown in the Betfair tally. Am keen to add other tallies so anyone with one feel free to send through and I'll add it.

The final sheet I've gotten each person's tally, and then averaged the votes for individual players to find what the general consensus is. It's obviously somewhat flawed, as some people didn't include particular players in their counts, so I just ommitted those counts and they don't contribute to the averages. The worksheet is also pretty messy. If we get more people submitting tallies though, the larger our sample, the more accurate it should hopefully be. Will attach link below. It's also pretty messy but in the sheet labeled 'Aggregate', you basically can scroll to the right and you'll see most notable players. I didn't bother with Richmond as I don't want to touch that market.

I'll also make this a lot neater and input the player averages on the last sheet once I'm happy I've pretty much exhausted the tallies available

 

[adstar171]

So just to clarify, is Neale a lock for this year's Brownlow? Or is there any chance it could be like Swan- Judd situation...

 

[NYRB]

Dalgelish umpired games in 2020: Rd 1 WCE V Melb, Rd 8 WCE V Coll, Rd 9 WCE V Geel, Rd 11 WCE V Carlton. He only umpired 4 games, if I am reading things correctly:




Bit of a coincidence he got to do all the West Coast Eagles games.

 

[gothedons]

Didn't watch Carlton v Geelong this year, as I was watching the alternative game on at that time slot earlier in the year.

Rd 3: Carlton V Geelong

3 P Cripps
2 S Docherty
1 Casboult

Carlton were the big underdog in this game and Cripps played the perfect game on top of his 2 goals. He was the leading disposal gettor. Docherty deserves 2 here, he was 3rd leading disposal getter and had a game saving goal clearance late in the 4th quarter. The 1 vote could go to either: Duncan, Betts, Dangerfield or Casboult. Im leaning towards Casboult , he kicked 2 goals and had 5 pretty important contested mark (from my count) in dewy conditions. (9 marks all up). This 1 vote lost for Dangerfield could be pretty important for head to head bets and any other novelty bets for the rest of the count.

In the games where there is a strong underdog, and they overperform, usually the majority of the votes would side with the underdog. There is a strong chance Carlton could sweep the 6 votes in this match.

To get 3 votes from this game?
Cripps $1.10
Docherty $20
Dangerfield $25
Other Player $100

Whose got he 3 votes markets?

 

[NYRB]

Whose got he 3 votes markets?

I priced it up myself but Im pretty sure Sportsbet or some other bookie will have this market up a week or two before the count.

 

[Sausage Legs]

I'll also make this a lot neater and input the player averages on the last sheet once I'm happy I've pretty much exhausted the tallies available

This is good. I've always thought it'd be good to have the games up every week with a hidden poll for people to enter there predictions. Have to do it within the week so fresh and not stat based. Then it all adds itself up. I'm a bit of a computer nuffie tho.

 

[gothedons]

Most have already posted them but heres my team votes summary...

ADEL			BRIS			CARL			COLL			ESS			FREO			GEEL			GCS			GWS
R.Laird	10		L.Neale	28		S.Walsh	15		T.Adams	15		Z.Merrett	14		N.Fyfe	17		P.Dangerfield	16		M.Rowell	9		L.Whitfield	10
M.Crouch	7		J.Lyons	9		P.Cripps	8		S.Pendlebury	14		D.Shiel	8		A.Brayshaw	11		C.Guthrie	12		T.Miller	6		T.Greene	9
B.Smith	3		H.McCluggage	6		E.Curnow	6		J.De Goey	6		A.McGrath	7		L.Ryan	8		S.Menegola	11		H.Greenwood	5		J.Kelly	9
HAW			MELB			NORTH			PORT			RICH			ST K			SYD			WBD			WCE
T.Mitchell	8		C.Petracca	20		J.Anderson	8		T.Boak	22		D.Martin	15		J.Steele	20		L.Parker	16		M.Bontempelli	19		D.Sheed	10
C.Wingard	7		M.Gawn	14		J.Simpkin	7		O.Wines	12		T.Cotchin	6		Z.Jones	11		J.Kennedy	6		J.Macrae	15		N.Naitanui	9
J.Gunston	4		C.Oliver	14		T.Goldstein	5		T.Rockliff	11		S.Bolton	5		R.Marshall	8		I.Heeney	6		T.English	5		A.Gaff	9

 

[Analysis Paralysis]

So just to clarify, is Neale a lock for this year's Brownlow? Or is there any chance it could be like Swan- Judd situation...

DeliciousBagel0 has done a brilliant aggregating many polls, and they all have Neale winning by 5 or more votes. A lot has go against him to not win, but that is not to say it couldn't. One missed 3 by Neale and one gained 3 by a chaser, and its on.

 

[shepherdodin]

Hi All,

Have pored over the comments in this forum and gotten team vote summaries of everyone that I've been able to find who's done comprehensive tallies. Each sheet represents a different commenter's votes, and I've also thrown in the Betfair tally. Am keen to add other tallies so anyone with one feel free to send through and I'll add it.

The final sheet I've gotten each person's tally, and then averaged the votes for individual players to find what the general consensus is. It's obviously somewhat flawed, as some people didn't include particular players in their counts, so I just ommitted those counts and they don't contribute to the averages. The worksheet is also pretty messy. If we get more people submitting tallies though, the larger our sample, the more accurate it should hopefully be. Will attach link below. It's also pretty messy but in the sheet labeled 'Aggregate', you basically can scroll to the right and you'll see most notable players. I didn't bother with Richmond as I don't want to touch that market.

Great work! I have something similar I've been planning on posting - waiting for Gazza's count (now gothedons has his I'll add them as well). The different between this and mine is I have a weighted average (for example TJM votes count much more than mine, IMO).

This is what it looks like currently. The difference is the average votes of the next person. This helped me a lot inform my decisions, I didn't use it as an entire basis, because some teams have a variance, but it was a very helpful indicator. For example before I did this I put quite a bit of money on Jones, but now I'm not so sure it was that great a call.