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AFL 2021 AFL Finals Week 1

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Prochard123 said:
10 times in 300 games is roughly 3.33% chance.

Judging on that statistic, Boak for 3 goals should be priced at roughly $30.30? Perhaps $30 - $50 since he's been playing more midfield in last couple of years.
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Just briefly going over his record, there was plenty of times he has scored 2+ and with shots on goal for the third.
 

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there hasn't been much talk of possessions in any of the games, anyone got any good tips? anyone from Sydney to really take a spike with Mills out or it'll just be by committee? guessing the markets adjusted anyway, how do we think Duncan goes etc, who gets the tag tonight from Oconner ?? boak like previously or a switch to wines, be very good outcome if you pick correctly ...but has Oconner been locking down as heavily as when he was getting scalps early season???
 
demon_fanatic said:
there hasn't been much talk of possessions in any of the games, anyone got any good tips? anyone from Sydney to really take a spike with Mills out or it'll just be by committee? guessing the markets adjusted anyway, how do we think Duncan goes etc, who gets the tag tonight from Oconner ?? boak like previously or a switch to wines, be very good outcome if you pick correctly ...but has Oconner been locking down as heavily as when he was getting scalps early season???
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Im on the Unders with Duncan.

Thinking about unders on Menegola as well

Stats also say Robbie Gray goes under but he is such a big game player so risky.
 
3.5u - Dangerfield over 24.5 disposals - $1.87 - 365
Expect to see full throttle Paddy tonight with big minutes through the midfield. Has been hovering around the sub 80% for TOG all season but now that we’re into the real stuff that should push into the mid to high 80%. Had 23 at 3qtr time last week and went on to have 0 in the final quarter where a case can be made that he was managed to be right for the final series.

3u - Either team under 24.5 (tri-bet) - $1.72 - Ladbrokes
Too close to call this one, both teams coming into this at close to full strength. Expected to be cold and dewy conditions tonight which should bring the scoring down. Both teams have shown throughout the year that they aren’t afraid to turn the game into a slower defensive grind which we could well see in a finals pressure scenario.

2.5u - Wines more disposals than Guthrie - $1.75 - PointsBet
In disposal match up A. Guthrie has had the luxury of being fit all season whilst Geelong have struggled to get all their A grade midfielders on the park at the same time. Tonight Geelong play a full strength midfield which has seen Guthrie relegated to the bench and will possibly see a reduction in minutes or change in role. Wines on the other hand will see absolutely no change in role as he is the Power’s number one midfielder. Potential to receive extra attention, but enough stacking up against Guthrie to make this a play.

2u - Miers AGS - $1.82 - TopSport
39/58 (67%) in his career, 10/12 (83%) for the year. A live wire up forward and will absolutely jump at the chance for a goal with so much attention being paid to all the other big names inside the forward line.

2u - Rozee AGS - $1.71 - TopSport
1u - Rozee 2+ goals - $4.10 - TopSport
0.5u - Rozee 3+ goals - $13 - TopSport
Has big game player written all over him. Kicked goals in each of his finals appearances last year and 5 on Geelong earlier in the year. Geelong will miss having Stewart in the backline tonight and their tall and slow backline will have their struggles dealing with the likes of Rozee and co.
 
Ohh Ok said:
2u - Rozee AGS - $1.71 - TopSport
1u - Rozee 2+ goals - $4.10 - TopSport
0.5u - Rozee 3+ goals - $13 - TopSport
Has big game player written all over him. Kicked goals in each of his finals appearances last year and 5 on Geelong earlier in the year. Geelong will miss having Stewart in the backline tonight and their tall and slow backline will have their struggles dealing with the likes of Rozee and co.
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might also like rozee more goals than duncan @ 2.24 on TS
 

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The current line for Dangerfield Disposals

PointsBet:

Under 25.5 Disposals $1.95 v $1.80 Over 25.5 Disposals

Sportsbet:

Under 26.5 Disposals $1.85 v $1.92 Over 26.5 Disposals
 
2u - Amon under 23.5 disposals - $1.91 - Ladbrokes
Had a wing role all to himself for most of the year which shot him into the 40 man all-Australian squad. Now that the likes of Duursma, Butters, and Rozee are all fit and firing he’ll be expected to share this role a bit. Up against a tough and restrictive Geelong side that will be willing to apply defensive pressure makes the under a play.

2u - Taranto under 24.5 disposals - $1.85 - TopSport
2u - Taranto AGS - $1.90 - TAB
1u - Taranto 2+ goals - $5 - SB
With Green now added into the lineup he looks a lock to spend even more time in the forward line. Has shown his class around goals with 16 scoring shots in his last 5 games.
 

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Ohh Ok said:
2u - Taranto under 24.5 disposals - $1.85 - TopSport
2u - Taranto AGS - $1.90 - TAB
1u - Taranto 2+ goals - $5 - SB
With Green now added into the lineup he looks a lock to spend even more time in the forward line. Has shown his class around goals with 16 scoring shots in his last 5 games.
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Yep i like this combination of things falling into place to help Taranto. Will definitely be tailing those.

Also a bite on 3g+ just because I regretted not getting on 3g when he hit it a few weeks ago..
0.5u SGM 2g+3g+ @23 sb

dontlimitme said:
Rozee 2+/Taranto 2+/mcstay 2+ @ 45 (TS)
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Onboard too. 0.5u
0.5u gray 2+/Taranto 2+/mcstay 2+ @ 42.63 sb
0.3u Boak 2+/Taranto 2+/mcstay 2+ @ 96 sb
 

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AFL 2021 AFL Finals Week 1

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