Analysis 2021 draft thread

[briztoon]

If someone is playing exclusively as a half back in junior footy, it raises questions for me. Those questions might have acceptable answers but it at least raises the possibility that they are played in that role to mask a deficiency which might get exposed at senior level. A good proportion of the best HBFs at AFL level seemed to have played at least a bit of midfield in the junior ranks.

It seems like there are a few players around our selections this year who made their names as a half back. Then, because of injury or lockdown, they haven't really had a chance to go into the midfield to show something different. It will be interesting to see how that's rated.

Both Sinn and Chesser played wing and halfback at U16 level.

They never got the chance to show if they could play through the midfield.

Wilmot has played mostly halfback. He isn’t as good a kick as Sinn or Chesser, but he’s a significantly better defender.

I’ve said it before, he’s an upgrade on Answerth.

And I question Answerth’s long term prospects if we’re adding Wilmot and a Chesser or Sinn.

 

[POBT]

Both Sinn and Chesser played wing and halfback at U16 level.

They never got the chance to show if they could play through the midfield.

Yeah, that was my point.

 

[Rioli2Rioli]

Hey folks, I come in peace. Do you believe you guys would trade 18 to us for 22 or 23 + future R3 (tied to Carlton)? Gives you guys a good pick to help match for Ashcroft next year and only sliding 4-5 spots this year. It has been mentioned on our board as a possible option.

Maybe i can beat that offer
Richmonds pick #26 + F2 for #18
Would be suitable for the Lions if Bazzo was a target

 

[bungalow_bill]

Lions would be interested in moving up the draft but not down.

 

[jackess]

Lions would be interested in moving up the draft but not down.

I can see us trading back 18.

Would love to trade 14 and 18 for something like 10 and 26

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

Hey folks, I come in peace. Do you believe you guys would trade 18 to us for 22 or 23 + future R3 (tied to Carlton)? Gives you guys a good pick to help match for Ashcroft next year and only sliding 4-5 spots this year. It has been mentioned on our board as a possible option.

I wouldn’t be opposed to the idea of trading back to pocket some points for next year. However if there’s a player on the board that Geelong believes warrants paying a decent premium, every chance we’re thinking similarly, and we should be in a position to prioritize quality over additional points.

Interested to see if we can make a move before Monday 5pm deadline, with picks 41 and 60. Am I right thinking that if we don’t move one on, we will lose one ? I know 60 hold little value, but even if we get a future 4th might get some points for next year.

 

[briztoon]

I can see us trading back 18.

Would love to trade 14 and 18 for something like 10 and 26

Yeah, I could see us trading back if we target a need.

But the club keeps saying we’re taking 14 & 18 to the draft.

 

[briztoon]

I wouldn’t be opposed to the idea of trading back to pocket some points for next year. However if there’s a player on the board that Geelong believes warrants paying a decent premium, every chance we’re thinking similarly, and we should be in a position to prioritize quality over additional points.

Interested to see if we can make a move before Monday 5pm deadline, with picks 41 and 60. Am I right thinking that if we don’t move one on, we will lose one ? I know 60 hold little value, but even if we get a future 4th might get some points for next year.

Yes, we would lose 60.

Hard to see a team that still needs points now.

 

[bungalow_bill]

I can see us trading back 18.

Would love to trade 14 and 18 for something like 10 and 26

Would be okay with that as we're also improving our first pick

 

[mpal6]

Maybe i can beat that offer
Richmonds pick #26 + F2 for #18
Would be suitable for the Lions if Bazzo was a target

Yep, I'd do that deal. I think getting mid 20s pick back while adding a future 2nd would be a good result for us. But its a 8 pick slide so I hope we trade for North's future 2nd that you're holding.

 

[a mayes ing]

The other thing that might be considered by the club is that it if decide to trade out Neale back to WA, once his contract finishes with us in 2023, to help maybe improve our Best 22 midfield structure, but also free up the salary cap to keep our young stars for the long-term or recruit another big player to the club.

Now I'm not saying he isn't valuable to us right now cause lets be honest, he is our star player for us without a doubt and with him in the team makes us better off for it, BUT at the same time, if Neale does want to move back to WA in the future and it is affecting his or the team's performance, I wouldn't be overall disappointed if we did let him go at the expense of team glory and would be more disappointed IMO if we lose players in our midfield structure such as McCluggage, Berry, Bailey, Robertson, Rayner, etc in the future, with the tight salary cap we currently have atm.

I think looking at the future and more so the next 5-10 years at the club, if we can play our cards right with our salary cap and etc with our current group of players (plus some of our future F/S & academy players as well), our midfield structure would look pretty darn excellent compared to the rest of the league and tbh would be better then the current one we have now tbh:

2027 Best 22 Brisbane Lions Midfield Structure
Centre: H.McCluggage, J.Berry, Z.Bailey
Followers: O.McInerney, W.Ashcroft (2023+), D.Robertson
Midfield Rotation Players: K.Coleman, N.Cockatoo, C.Rayner, H.Sharp, B.Starcevich, L.Ashcroft (2025+), J.Fletcher (2023+), etc.

What's L.Ashcroft like?

 

[briztoon]

What's L.Ashcroft like?

Tiger Woods.

 

[briztoon]

Yeah, that was my point.

I guess the other thing that hasn’t been mentioned is, at both state and club level, Sinn and Chesser have played on teams stacked with quality inside mids, so being fast and good kicks, they’ve been put in roles that suit their skills and athletic attributes.

Just at Sandringham they have the two Saints nga boys and Callaghan playing inside mid.

Then at Vic Metro, you add Daicos and Goater as inside mids as well.

 

[mattsmob]

I guess the other thing that hasn’t been mentioned is, at both state and club level, Sinn and Chesser have played on teams stacked with quality inside mids, so being fast and good kicks, they’ve been put in roles that suit their skills and athletic attributes.

Just at Sandringham they have the two Saints nga boys and Callaghan playing inside mid.

Then at Vic Metro, you add Daicos and Goater as inside mids as well.

Both have also had injury issues so 'protecting' them in outside roles could come into it.
Personally have more confidence in Sinn becoming a centre bounce midfielder, feel like Chesser will always be on a wing or flank.

 

[briztoon]

Both have also had injury issues so 'protecting' them in outside roles could come into it.

I won’t pretend I’m across either players injuries this year, but I’d be surprised if they played while injured, or were played outside after coming back from injury to shield them.

I see it as far more likely they were playing their roles in very strong teams.

Looking at an article today, both have been in State rep side since they were U12’s.

 

[mattsmob]

I won’t pretend I’m across either players injuries this year, but I’d be surprised if they played while injured, or were played outside after coming back from injury to shield them.

I see it as far more likely they were playing their roles in very strong teams.

Looking at an article today, both have been in State rep side since they were U12’s.

Neither am I but didn't Callaghan start on the outside this season before Sinn's injury then went inside a few rounds in?

 

[Rioli2Rioli]

Yep, I'd do that deal. I think getting mid 20s pick back while adding a future 2nd would be a good result for us. But its a 8 pick slide so I hope we trade for North's future 2nd that you're holding.

Norths future 2nd would be untouchable imo This trade leaves us with only 2 picks in 2022 and Richmond would want 2 quality picks going into that draft
and i think pick #20 & $26 would be way to much a price to pay for a 8 spot upgrade

 

[mattsmob]

and i think pick #20 & $26 would be way to much a price to pay for a 8 spot upgrade

Depends who's still available, could be worth it. Also wouldn't be 20 and 26 for an 8 pick upgrade, would just pick 20 for an 8 pick upgrade, might still be slightly overs but not too far off imo.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

We need a KPD that can ready to play now though, not some skinny 18 year old draftee like JVR who will need to develop in the reserves for 3-4 years at a minimum before being able to perform at the AFL level. Someone like Dean (20), Alleer (20), Schlensog (21) or even Haynes (24) can provide that KPD role for us in the short-term future for the club at the VFL level and would be also a suitable injury replacement in our AFL side, if injuries do arise in the D50 for us in the future.

Yes, at pick 41. If you read a few posts up the page, you'll find I've advocated drafting a mature KPD with that pick. But I have faith in our club's talent evaluation, so if they decide JVR is the best choice at 18, then I won't disapprove of it.

Also, who is Haynes? Do you mean Jack Hayes from Woodville-West Torrens?

 

[Cubs2Lions]

Yes, at pick 41. If you read a few posts up the page, you'll find I've advocated drafting a mature KPD with that pick. But I have faith in our club's talent evaluation, so if they decide JVR is the best choice at 18, then I won't disapprove of it.

Also, who is Haynes? Do you mean Jack Hayes from Woodville-West Torrens?

Yeah Hayes sorry, auto-correction on my phone decided to mess with me.

The problem with getting an 18 year old though as that KPP for us is that he doesn't develop enough to warrant a future due to the lack of development at the reserves level from getting smashed every game, similar to what happened with Brock Smith down back for us (Joyce different story with injuries/personal events and was extremely unluckly to be delisted). I rather we select an experienced, young overage VFL/SANFL/WAFL KPP who can play serviceable footy in our D50 at the lower-level so we don't get smashed by 15 goals numerous times so that VFL side can develop properly and wouldn't be the worst replacement in the AFL side, if injuries occur, with our Pick 41. Like you said though, if our club thinks he is the best choice player talent-wise and fits our needs at Pick 18 (20-21), I wouldn't be that fussed depending on who we selected at Pick 14 (16).

The 18 mature-age guns your club could steal at the 2021 AFL draft

Bargain buys: The 18 mature-age stars your club could steal at the AFL draft

www.foxsports.com.au

Jack Hayes (Woodville-West Torrens – SANFL)

Age: 24

Position: Utility (192cm, 91kg)

Perhaps he can be ignored no longer. With 123 goals from 93 games, Hayes has been a SANFL star for years. This year, he finished with a highly unusual – yet mightily impressive – set of statistics. The 192cm utility averaged just under 20 disposals, 2.4 clearances, 2.1 intercept marks, 7.1 score involvements and 1.1 goals. In Round 14 against West Adelaide, Hayes booted 2.4 from 29 disposals and a lazy 20 marks (seven intercept marks). He then produced one of his best games for the season in the Eagles’ grand final triumph, booting 1.2 from 26 disposals, nine marks and seven clearances to win the Jack Oatey medal for best in ground. A rare key forward, key defender, midfielder set of numbers that no doubt would’ve caught recruiters’ eyes.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Yeah Hayes sorry, auto-correction on my phone decided to mess with me.

The problem with getting an 18 year old though as that KPP for us is that he doesn't develop enough to warrant a future, similar to what happened with Brock Smith down back for us (Joyce different story was extremely unluckly to be delisted). I rather we select an experienced but young (mind you) VFL/SANFL/WAFL KPP who can play serviceable at the lower-level and wouldn't be the worst replacement in the AFL side, if injuries occur.

The 18 mature-age guns your club could steal at the 2021 AFL draft

Bargain buys: The 18 mature-age stars your club could steal at the AFL draft

www.foxsports.com.au

Jack Hayes (Woodville-West Torrens – SANFL)

Age: 24

Position: Utility (192cm, 91kg)

Perhaps he can be ignored no longer. With 123 goals from 93 games, Hayes has been a SANFL star for years. This year, he finished with a highly unusual – yet mightily impressive – set of statistics. The 192cm utility averaged just under 20 disposals, 2.4 clearances, 2.1 intercept marks, 7.1 score involvements and 1.1 goals. In Round 14 against West Adelaide, Hayes booted 2.4 from 29 disposals and a lazy 20 marks (seven intercept marks). He then produced one of his best games for the season in the Eagles’ grand final triumph, booting 1.2 from 26 disposals, nine marks and seven clearances to win the Jack Oatey medal for best in ground. A rare key forward, key defender, midfielder set of numbers that no doubt would’ve caught recruiters’ eyes.

I wanted Hayes in the mid-season draft. His leadership qualities are great too, as he was captain of the SANFL rep team. As per the description though, I think he's best used as a genuine utility though, since he can operate all over the ground but may not have the ideal size to be a KPD at AFL level. It depends what the club wants I suppose.

 

[Cubs2Lions]

I wanted Hayes in the mid-season draft. His leadership qualities are great too, as he was captain of the SANFL rep team. As per the description though, I think he's best used as a genuine utility rather than primarily as a backup tall defence, since he does well everywhere. It depends what the club wants I suppose.

He would have been the perfect player to select in our AFL side heading into the finals as well

 

[mattsmob]

The problem with getting an 18 year old though as that KPP for us is that he doesn't develop enough to warrant a future due to the lack of development at the reserves level from getting smashed every game, similar to what happened with Brock Smith down back for us (Joyce different story with injuries/personal events and was extremely unluckly to be delisted).

I think B. Smith being forced to play above his height was a bigger hurdle than being smashed each week although it's not ideal, was consistently having to match up on guys significantly taller and heavier than him. I think in the right situation an 18 year old KPP can come into the AFL to cover injuries, just using Bazzo as an example because he would be my preference but if he was brought in to match up on 3rd talls or the least dangerous forward I believe he could do a job. As long as they're not brought in and thrown onto a Hawkins or McKay I think they should be serviceable enough.

 

[briztoon]

Hey PMBangers i have copied and pasted your post to our board, as I wanted to post it in it’s entirety, instead of quoting the post.

View attachment 1279700View attachment 1279701
The Basics

Campbell Chesser	Darcy Wilmot
186 cm	183 cm
83 kg	75 kg
Sandringham Dragons (Murray Bushrangers if he didn't board)	Northern Knights
VIC Country	VIC Metro
Midfielder - Balanced/ Rebounding Defender	General Defender - Well Rounded
NAB League Games: 3 (one injury effected game)	NAB League Games: 7
Avg. Disposals: 18.3	Avg. Disposals: 15.1
Avg. Marks: 3	Avg. Marks: 2.7
Avg. Tackles: 1.7	Avg. Tackles: 2.3

The Yearly Rundown
It was a tail of two different seasons for the pair, for Chesser he started well in his opening outing against the Oakleigh Chargers playing predominantly on the wing in the exciting win for the Dragons, looking every bit a top end pick as he was spoken up to be. His next game against the Knights was a good one as well but came at a cost of injuring his meniscus and requiring surgery. He was expected to miss 4 weeks but due to complications in rehab he wouldn't return until the Dragons played against Tasmania, and then the week after for VIC Country v Metro Challenge match.
Wilmot has enjoyed a strong season where he has propelled himself up rankings as arguably the best 'exclusive' defender in the pool, playing a key part in the Northern Knights successful season prior to the season ending shortly and making the VIC Metro squad. While Wilmot hasn't had any 'standout' games, it's been his consistency in his application and defensive work that's really impressed more than anything else

Strengths
Looking at what Chesser has over Wilmot in terms of strengths and it's a pretty flattering list; ball use, speed, composure and versatility all lean in Chesser's favour here, as one of the better users when he's up and about in the draft class, it was his piercing kicking from half back as a 16-year-old that first brought his name up as one to watch for this year, when mixed with his speed that's been developed well in his athletics work, his composure in traffic and his versatility to play further up the field, it's a dangerous package no matter how you look at it. You could argue that production should be a strength in Chesser's favour here, but with the comparison mainly looking at the two as defenders I don't think it matters all that much, especially when Chesser was mostly a midfielder this year.

For Wilmot, you're looking at a defensive specialist that needs to work a little on his rebound game, some of his strengths over Chesser for me include; two way running, tackling, defensive craft, durability. Simply put, Wilmot is a real 'defenders defender' with his accountability and defensive focus in the back half, it's rare you'll ever see an opponent beat Darcy because he wasn't working hard enough or had a lapse in his defending, he's truly the definition of 'making them earn their goals.'

Their similar traits isn't a long list, and I think that's why there's such a difference in opinion on who people would rather at their club, but for a basic list I've gone with;
- Footy IQ
- Work Rate
- Leadership

AFL Player Comparison
This is a fairly difficult one, my first thought with Chesser is someone like Mitch Duncan, because I see him as a midfielder long term. I preface this by saying I didn't watch a lot of AFL footy this year, but I can see a bit of Christian Salem in how he goes about it from the backline. With Wilmot it's hard for a like for like, I think he's a bit of Brayden Maynard with better foot skills though.

Comparing the pair
This one is actually a lot more cut and dry than I expected, I'm really high on both of these guys and after rewatching Chesser footage for this he's jumped back up in my rankings, I back him in to make it despite the interrupted year, but I'm also high on Wilmot and think he's one of the safest bets to be an AFL level player for 200+ games in the pool. Johnny Bananas asked about them both as half backs however, and for that I have to go with Darcy Wilmot as a more accountable option, but I think with two late teens picks and a need for both general defenders and outside class, both players would fit Brisbane well

 

[M Malice]

I'm going with Chesser over Wilmot because he's a bigger body and we all know us Lions fanatics love our big bodied types.......