Remove this Banner Ad

Analysis 2021 Goals from Free Kicks

  • Thread starter Thread starter Do the Dew
  • Start date Start date
  • Tagged users Tagged users None

🥰 Love BigFooty? Join now for free.

Do the Dew

Do the Dew

Club Legend
Veteran
Joined
Feb 14, 2019
Posts
2,727
Reaction score
8,303
Location
Stuart Dew's Gut
AFL Club
Richmond
I originally posted this on the Tigers board, as it is one of the most coveted stats out there that is impossible to find unless you work for Champion Data. As a Tigers supporter, I got very annoyed by people saying that we get looked after by the umps, considering we have the worst free kick differential by a mile over the last 5 years. They'd counter and say "it's not how many you get, but where you get them". So I embraced the challenge, and have tabulated EVERY SINGLE GOAL from the 2021 season and counted how many came DIRECTLY from free kicks.

A goal directly from a free kick is one where:
  • A player gets a free kick, then kicks the goal
  • A player gets a free kick, teammate takes advantage and kicks the goal
I didn't count goals that came INDIRECTLY from frees, because they're much harder to work out. I.e. a player gets a free kick on the wing, chips it sideways to a teammate who kicks it forwards, ball is marked and a goal is then kicked. It's much too hard to work out how far back you need to go to determine if the free kick actually resulted in a goal.

Lastly, I didn't bother splitting up goals that came from either correct or dubious frees. The following list has them all lumped together. I didn't split them because the rules have a lot of grey areas and frees like the protected area ones or stand rule are technically there, but in my mind are very dubious.

After all that preamble, here are the current 2021 goals from free kicks including the first week of finals (Cody Weightman says hi).

1630454463178.png

We can see that in general, the higher up the ladder you finish, the more goals from frees you tend to get. This is fairly logical, as better teams tend to have more inside 50s and forward pressure, resulting in a higher chance of defenders giving free kicks away. The outlier to this is Carlton. They comfortably had the most goals from frees after the H&A season, and also had 24% of their goals this season coming from free kicks. That is a clear outlier compared to every other team.

On to my beloved Tigers. Despite not finishing near the bottom of the ladder, and being in finals contention with 1 round to go, we finished second last in differential. This summed up what I thought in that we don't get looked after by the umps, compared to some other teams.

So what do you think - happy/sad with your team? If you want to know the goals from frees for any given game, let me know and I can tell you (for record, the biggest differential in one game was Carlton vs Fremantle in Rd 3 - Carlton kicked 7 goals from frees to Freo's 1).
 
The scenario, or field area the free is awarded would be interesting.

This is contingent on the result of the free, ie it is kicked for a goal.


Frees from centre bounce, frees from stoppage, frees in home goal square, forward fifty etc etc.

Would be interesting to see what types of free kicks the teams that manage to obtain more free kicks consistently obtain. High tackle? Throw? marking contest arm chop? Deliberate? Who are the top free kicks clubs, over the last five years?

I'd take a guess the eagles are top for deliberate out of bounds...
 

Log in to remove this Banner Ad

Harry McKay would have gotten quite a few goals from free kicks, the handful of Carlton matches I watched defenders were desperate against him and would chop arms/drag him off the ball etc.
 
And_ROOS said:
Harry McKay would have gotten quite a few goals from free kicks, the handful of Carlton matches I watched defenders were desperate against him and would chop arms/drag him off the ball etc.
Click to expand...
Interesting comparison.
Frees for: Dixon 38, Daniher 29, Darling 29, Mckay 27, Franklin 24, Walker 20, Naughton 19, Ben King 18, Max King 17, Lynch 17, Kennedy 14, Riewoldt 12, Hawkins 12.

Big difference between 38 for Dixon and Riewoldt/Hawkiins 12.
McKay, high middle, but the really taller players tend to get a few more, besides Darling.
 
Great work Do the Dew

I am interested in the goals from free kick counts in the following 7 closest matches the Tigers played this season:

v Hawks(draw) free kick differential -2
V Port(2 pt loss) FKD -10
v Giants(4 pt win) FKD -7
v Eagles(4 pt loss) FKD -10
v Dockers(4 pt loss) FKD -8
v Suns(10 pt loss) FD -7
v Magpies(16 pt loss) FKD -8

These 7 matches accounted for -52 of our overall season -85 free kick differential. Just wondering how that translated into goals from free kicks in those matches….
 
Last edited:
Firstly, that would have taken ages so good work.

Secondly, it remains hard to assess as sometimes an infringement is ridiculously obvious and would have (or did) result in a goal anyway (hence the infringement) whilst others may be very soft "downfields", etc that significantly alter the general flow of play. Regardless, overall patterns are still good to see.

Next, as acknowledged, some teams may have a gamestyle that sees the ball locked in their forward 50 with intense forward pressure, etc that will result in far more free kicks being rightfully awarded.

Finally, it is unfortunate that umpires often have 'expected outcomes' from contests (as we all do). To clarify, good and star players are expected to win the ball in a one on one contest and are often more likely to be perceived as having been infringed (especially if by a 'lesser' defender). The problem is that for 'average' forwards, it takes a really, really obvious infringement to win a free as it is not expected that they will win the contest and so infringements are not as easily noticed/rewarded.

To use an example from my own club, Tim O'Brien is (rightfully) considered an average (or worse) forward (including by Hawthorn supporters). As someone capable for high leaping though, he is often infringed, usually by very obvious holding, sometimes laughably so. Yet he is rarely awarded a free kick because his inability to et the ball is partly attributable to him being average rather than the obvious infringements occurring. If the same were to happen to Harry McKay or whoever, I am sure the whistle would have been blown. I am sure this happens to other players from other clubs as well (and it is not exclusive to forwards either as star midfielders appear more likely to be awarded a free than an 'average' mid).
 
Guardian Hawk said:
Firstly, that would have taken ages so good work.

Secondly, it remains hard to assess as sometimes an infringement is ridiculously obvious and would have (or did) result in a goal anyway (hence the infringement) whilst others may be very soft "downfields", etc that significantly alter the general flow of play. Regardless, overall patterns are still good to see.

Next, as acknowledged, some teams may have a gamestyle that sees the ball locked in their forward 50 with intense forward pressure, etc that will result in far more free kicks being rightfully awarded.

Finally, it is unfortunate that umpires often have 'expected outcomes' from contests (as we all do). To clarify, good and star players are expected to win the ball in a one on one contest and are often more likely to be perceived as having been infringed (especially if by a 'lesser' defender). The problem is that for 'average' forwards, it takes a really, really obvious infringement to win a free as it is not expected that they will win the contest and so infringements are not as easily noticed/rewarded.

To use an example from my own club, Tim O'Brien is (rightfully) considered an average (or worse) forward (including by Hawthorn supporters). As someone capable for high leaping though, he is often infringed, usually by very obvious holding, sometimes laughably so. Yet he is rarely awarded a free kick because his inability to et the ball is partly attributable to him being average rather than the obvious infringements occurring. If the same were to happen to Harry McKay or whoever, I am sure the whistle would have been blown. I am sure this happens to other players from other clubs as well (and it is not exclusive to forwards either as star midfielders appear more likely to be awarded a free than an 'average' mid).
Click to expand...

O’Brien had 18 free kicks for this season, and 16 against. In his career in his 96 matches he has 97 frees for and 65 against.

Hawkins has 12 frees for and 33 against in 2021.

Riewoldt stands at 12-24 in 2021.

McKay 27-17.

Thinking of players who might play a similar role to O’Brien:

Darling 27-17

Bruce 14-26

Harrison Jones 7-6

Finlayson 14-11

Membrey 18-10

McStay 19-9

Georgiades 15-31

Mitch McGovern 7-0 😱

Do you think these figures are skewed towards players the umpires expect to win contests and away from players the umps don’t expect to win contests?
 
SONS OF THE UMPS!

Very interesting data. Not at all surprised to see Port so high up either.
 

Remove this Banner Ad

Do the Dew said:
I originally posted this on the Tigers board, as it is one of the most coveted stats out there that is impossible to find unless you work for Champion Data. As a Tigers supporter, I got very annoyed by people saying that we get looked after by the umps, considering we have the worst free kick differential by a mile over the last 5 years. They'd counter and say "it's not how many you get, but where you get them". So I embraced the challenge, and have tabulated EVERY SINGLE GOAL from the 2021 season and counted how many came DIRECTLY from free kicks.

A goal directly from a free kick is one where:
  • A player gets a free kick, then kicks the goal
  • A player gets a free kick, teammate takes advantage and kicks the goal
I didn't count goals that came INDIRECTLY from frees, because they're much harder to work out. I.e. a player gets a free kick on the wing, chips it sideways to a teammate who kicks it forwards, ball is marked and a goal is then kicked. It's much too hard to work out how far back you need to go to determine if the free kick actually resulted in a goal.

Lastly, I didn't bother splitting up goals that came from either correct or dubious frees. The following list has them all lumped together. I didn't split them because the rules have a lot of grey areas and frees like the protected area ones or stand rule are technically there, but in my mind are very dubious.

After all that preamble, here are the current 2021 goals from free kicks including the first week of finals (Cody Weightman says hi).

View attachment 1222991

We can see that in general, the higher up the ladder you finish, the more goals from frees you tend to get. This is fairly logical, as better teams tend to have more inside 50s and forward pressure, resulting in a higher chance of defenders giving free kicks away. The outlier to this is Carlton. They comfortably had the most goals from frees after the H&A season, and also had 24% of their goals this season coming from free kicks. That is a clear outlier compared to every other team.

On to my beloved Tigers. Despite not finishing near the bottom of the ladder, and being in finals contention with 1 round to go, we finished second last in differential. This summed up what I thought in that we don't get looked after by the umps, compared to some other teams.

So what do you think - happy/sad with your team? If you want to know the goals from frees for any given game, let me know and I can tell you (for record, the biggest differential in one game was Carlton vs Fremantle in Rd 3 - Carlton kicked 7 goals from frees to Freo's 1).
Click to expand...

Great stat !

Free kicks in the forward 50 are worth so much more than anywhere else around the ground. I wonder what the cut-off point would be for preferring forward and defensive free kicks - 3 in defensive 50 better than 1 in forward 50? 4 in defensive 50? More?

50 metre penalties is another. Umpires pay far more defensive 50 penalties than anywhere forward of centre. Are there actually more infringements, or are the umpires more cautious about giving 50m penalties which are going to lead to a score - and possibly a goal?
 
Good research but it doesn't tell us anything about alleged umpiring bias.

Carlton is an obvious outlier, I'll give you that. I don't think any of the others are though, Richmond included.

I wouldn't count the advantage goals as being directly from free kicks. I realise a lot of players stop on hearing the whistle and fans love to complain about it but the reality is that if the whistle is not blown the goal would have been kicked 90% of the time anyway.
 
Do the Dew said:
I originally posted this on the Tigers board, as it is one of the most coveted stats out there that is impossible to find unless you work for Champion Data. As a Tigers supporter, I got very annoyed by people saying that we get looked after by the umps, considering we have the worst free kick differential by a mile over the last 5 years. They'd counter and say "it's not how many you get, but where you get them". So I embraced the challenge, and have tabulated EVERY SINGLE GOAL from the 2021 season and counted how many came DIRECTLY from free kicks.

A goal directly from a free kick is one where:
  • A player gets a free kick, then kicks the goal
  • A player gets a free kick, teammate takes advantage and kicks the goal
I didn't count goals that came INDIRECTLY from frees, because they're much harder to work out. I.e. a player gets a free kick on the wing, chips it sideways to a teammate who kicks it forwards, ball is marked and a goal is then kicked. It's much too hard to work out how far back you need to go to determine if the free kick actually resulted in a goal.

Lastly, I didn't bother splitting up goals that came from either correct or dubious frees. The following list has them all lumped together. I didn't split them because the rules have a lot of grey areas and frees like the protected area ones or stand rule are technically there, but in my mind are very dubious.

After all that preamble, here are the current 2021 goals from free kicks including the first week of finals (Cody Weightman says hi).

View attachment 1222991

We can see that in general, the higher up the ladder you finish, the more goals from frees you tend to get. This is fairly logical, as better teams tend to have more inside 50s and forward pressure, resulting in a higher chance of defenders giving free kicks away. The outlier to this is Carlton. They comfortably had the most goals from frees after the H&A season, and also had 24% of their goals this season coming from free kicks. That is a clear outlier compared to every other team.

On to my beloved Tigers. Despite not finishing near the bottom of the ladder, and being in finals contention with 1 round to go, we finished second last in differential. This summed up what I thought in that we don't get looked after by the umps, compared to some other teams.

So what do you think - happy/sad with your team? If you want to know the goals from frees for any given game, let me know and I can tell you (for record, the biggest differential in one game was Carlton vs Fremantle in Rd 3 - Carlton kicked 7 goals from frees to Freo's 1).
Click to expand...

Are these stats misleading when you dont factor in kicking straight, would shots at goal be a better indicator of whatever conclusion you are demonstrating ?
 
Doesn’t this just tell us that the lower ranked sides spend less time with the ball in their F50 so are more likely to give more free kicks away in their defence due to the opposition having more possession in their F50?

I realise this has been stated, but I am questioning the relevance of this information.
 
Last edited:

🥰 Love BigFooty? Join now for free.

Grrr said:
Interesting comparison.
Frees for: Dixon 38, Daniher 29, Darling 29, Mckay 27, Franklin 24, Walker 20, Naughton 19, Ben King 18, Max King 17, Lynch 17, Kennedy 14, Riewoldt 12, Hawkins 12.

Big difference between 38 for Dixon and Riewoldt/Hawkiins 12.
McKay, high middle, but the really taller players tend to get a few more, besides Darling.
Click to expand...

Dixon 38? Do they give frees for puffing your chest out when you play the bottom 4?
 
Do the Dew said:
I originally posted this on the Tigers board, as it is one of the most coveted stats out there that is impossible to find unless you work for Champion Data. As a Tigers supporter, I got very annoyed by people saying that we get looked after by the umps, considering we have the worst free kick differential by a mile over the last 5 years. They'd counter and say "it's not how many you get, but where you get them". So I embraced the challenge, and have tabulated EVERY SINGLE GOAL from the 2021 season and counted how many came DIRECTLY from free kicks.

A goal directly from a free kick is one where:
  • A player gets a free kick, then kicks the goal
  • A player gets a free kick, teammate takes advantage and kicks the goal
I didn't count goals that came INDIRECTLY from frees, because they're much harder to work out. I.e. a player gets a free kick on the wing, chips it sideways to a teammate who kicks it forwards, ball is marked and a goal is then kicked. It's much too hard to work out how far back you need to go to determine if the free kick actually resulted in a goal.

Lastly, I didn't bother splitting up goals that came from either correct or dubious frees. The following list has them all lumped together. I didn't split them because the rules have a lot of grey areas and frees like the protected area ones or stand rule are technically there, but in my mind are very dubious.

After all that preamble, here are the current 2021 goals from free kicks including the first week of finals (Cody Weightman says hi).

View attachment 1222991

We can see that in general, the higher up the ladder you finish, the more goals from frees you tend to get. This is fairly logical, as better teams tend to have more inside 50s and forward pressure, resulting in a higher chance of defenders giving free kicks away. The outlier to this is Carlton. They comfortably had the most goals from frees after the H&A season, and also had 24% of their goals this season coming from free kicks. That is a clear outlier compared to every other team.

On to my beloved Tigers. Despite not finishing near the bottom of the ladder, and being in finals contention with 1 round to go, we finished second last in differential. This summed up what I thought in that we don't get looked after by the umps, compared to some other teams.

So what do you think - happy/sad with your team? If you want to know the goals from frees for any given game, let me know and I can tell you (for record, the biggest differential in one game was Carlton vs Fremantle in Rd 3 - Carlton kicked 7 goals from frees to Freo's 1).
Click to expand...
Not surprised at all by the figures
 

Remove this Banner Ad

Similar threads

GC2015
  • Poll Poll
Opinion Can Ben King kick 100 goals in a season?
Replies
15
Views
320
GC2015
GC2015
Chief
    • Haha
    • Like
    • Wow
Analysis Free Kick Differential 2026
2 3
Replies
54
Views
2K
Sentinel
Sentinel
joe444
Home crowd & free kicks - the stats
Replies
3
Views
706
Grumpyshades
Grumpyshades
1972championsofaust
    • Haha
THILTHORPE Goals
Replies
3
Views
556
Headless
Headless
PowerfulPies2023
    • Haha
    • Wow
  • Locked
Ranking the best Premiers from 2000 onwards
Replies
2
Views
240
Gralin
Gralin
PrancingPony
    • Like
Should poor performing teams be banished from prime time?
2
Replies
40
Views
859
FreddyTwoShoes
FreddyTwoShoes
RUNVS
    • Like
Goals not valued enough?
2
Replies
31
Views
2K
JHF1870
JHF1870

Remove this Banner Ad

🥰 Love BigFooty? Join now for free.

Back
Top Bottom