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AFL 2022 AFL Round 13

Line Winners?

  • Richmond -14.5

    Votes: 4 40.0%
  • Port Adelaide +14.5

    Votes: 4 40.0%
  • Essendon +18.5

    Votes: 4 40.0%
  • Carlton -18.5

    Votes: 3 30.0%
  • Fremantle -33.5

    Votes: 3 30.0%
  • Hawthorn +33.5

    Votes: 4 40.0%
  • Brisbane -16.5

    Votes: 2 20.0%
  • St Kilda +16.5

    Votes: 4 40.0%
  • North Melbourne +36.5

    Votes: 2 20.0%
  • G-Western Sydney -36.5

    Votes: 4 40.0%
  • Collingwood +20.5

    Votes: 4 40.0%
  • Melbourne -20.5

    Votes: 2 20.0%

  • Total voters
    10
  • Poll closed .

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Tonight is the night Sam Draper announces himself.

3+ $82, 4+ $476 (sb)

Didn't get much of it last game but managed several possessions inside 50.

Philips in the side means Draper spends more time fwd, cba dropped from ~80% average to below 50% last two games.

(This is probably a terrible bet, I'm still on tilt from Hugo's crash and burn last night, wtf bro)
Tailed 2-4 🤝

McKay 3
J Martin 3
@19.50
 
The only train I think worth getting on is Jake Stringer - big game player... Has been resting in the green field feasting on top grade grass waiting to be brought back in...
 
any thoughts on these tonight??
byo- Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay to combine for 6+ goals @1.99 sb
byo- Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay to combine for 7+ goals @2.90 sb
byo- Peter Wright and Jake Stringer to combine for 5+ goals sb @3.10 sb
byo- Peter Wright and Jake Stringer to combine for 6+ goals sb @5.50 sb
byo- Peter Wright and Jake Stringer to combine for 7+ goals sb @10.50 sb

To be honest - they all look terrible to me at those odds
 
McKay/Curnow 6+ $2
McKay/Curnow 7+ $2.90
McKay/Curnow 1+ PQ $2.90

McKay 4
Curnow 4
Cripps 2
$28

Tailing Carlton 3+ per quarter @ $5
Adding Carlton 2+ per quarter @ $1.82

All SB.
 

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3.5u - Merrett under 30.5 disposals - $1.89 - SB
Merrett has played 8 games this season. He averaged 35.5 in his first 4 games, in his last 4 he has only averaged 25.5. This aligns with a slight positional tweak, less midfield minutes and also a tactical tweak, more direct ball movement. Bet stacks up well against the Blues who are the second most restrictive side in the comp for disposals. The blues have only had 7 midfielders go over this total against them this year so with a few things stacking against Merrett I’m not sold on his chances of being the 8th.

2.5u - Carlton 1st Qtr Win, Carlton Win 1st Half - $1.93 - Ladbrokes
Carlton are ranked 8th for 1st qtrs and 3rd for second quarters. Essendon ranked 18th and 17th for the first two quarters. Carlton should be boosted by Mackay and Marchbank both rejoining the side, big morale boosters. Expecting them to come out the gates hard at this one.

3u - Redman under 21.5 disposals - $1.94 - SB
Has gone under in 7/10 this year and went under in 16/22 last year. Blues are high pressure forward team and make it tough for opposition defenders. Two of Redman’s overs have come from when Ridley has been away and he has taken on the main kick in role and been much more of a distributer. Ridley back tonight, so that role disappears.
 
Walsh 30+
Merrett 30+
Parish 35+
Stringer 2+
Wright 2+
McKay 3+
Curnow 3+

$50 SB
 

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3.5u - Merrett under 30.5 disposals - $1.89 - SB
Merrett has played 8 games this season. He averaged 35.5 in his first 4 games, in his last 4 he has only averaged 25.5. This aligns with a slight positional tweak, less midfield minutes and also a tactical tweak, more direct ball movement. Bet stacks up well against the Blues who are the second most restrictive side in the comp for disposals. The blues have only had 7 midfielders go over this total against them this year so with a few things stacking against Merrett I’m not sold on his chances of being the 8th.

2.5u - Carlton 1st Qtr Win, Carlton Win 1st Half - $1.93 - Ladbrokes
Carlton are ranked 8th for 1st qtrs and 3rd for second quarters. Essendon ranked 18th and 17th for the first two quarters. Carlton should be boosted by Mackay and Marchbank both rejoining the side, big morale boosters. Expecting them to come out the gates hard at this one.

3u - Redman under 21.5 disposals - $1.94 - SB
Has gone under in 7/10 this year and went under in 16/22 last year. Blues are high pressure forward team and make it tough for opposition defenders. Two of Redman’s overs have come from when Ridley has been away and he has taken on the main kick in role and been much more of a distributer. Ridley back tonight, so that role disappears.
Went Merrett U29.5/Carl -2.5 @$3.10 on b365

Also got

CARL/S. Walsh 25+ disp/G. Hewett 20+ disp/J. Ridley 20+ disp @$3.40 neds
 
Same gamer
Stringer 2+
Perkins AT
Owies AT
Durdin AT
Martin 20
Fisher 15
Newnes 15 @18.50SB odds should be better but **** it
 
3u - Redman under 21.5 disposals - $1.94 - SB
Has gone under in 7/10 this year and went under in 16/22 last year. Blues are high pressure forward team and make it tough for opposition defenders. Two of Redman’s overs have come from when Ridley has been away and he has taken on the main kick in role and been much more of a distributer. Ridley back tonight, so that role disappears.

Party pooper :(

Screenshot_20220610-195507_Chrome.jpg

I invested my life savings and everything!!
 

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