AFL 2022 AFL Round 14

[balmainforever]

POSTING OF BETS AND RESULTS AFTER THE FACT WILL NOT BE TOLERATED ANYMORE!!
ANYONE WHO DOES IT WILL BE GIVEN A HOLIDAY.

CONSIDER THIS EVERYONE'S FINAL WARNING!!!!!!

 

[fpm84]

View attachment 1427588

Quoting my own post to say this same bet is only paying $189 on PB.

 

[jikost]

degen $2501 for the day

 

[jikost]

Luke Jackson

9

Luke Jackson

Age

24

Ht

199cm

Wt

102kg

Pos.

F/R

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.3

2star

K

3.3

1star

HB

5.0

4star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.0

3star

G

0.3

3star

D

8.3

2star

K

3.3

1star

HB

5.0

3star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.0

2star

G

0.3

3star

D

8.3

3star

K

3.3

2star

HB

5.0

4star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.0

3star

G

0.3

3star

20+ @ $3.4 365 - No Gawn so will ruck solo on Thursday night. He's never played a match without Max before, but given how mobile he is around the contest I think he'll relish the opportunity.

 

[GROTTO]

Absolute speculation here and no evidence to back this up.

Rankine is in a contract year and his potential next employer ie South Aussie teams, in the next two weeks, Crows than Port.

2 big games from him in the next two weeks, would add massive $$$ to his contract as he could leverage this with any offer from the Suns.

Motivation and being up for a game is a big key with these campaigners going for goals. Food for thought.

 

[srobbo]

To be fair Essendon in the early 2000's when they were a super power team, played a pretty fast track bully style of footy. End- to-end football. Most of the times the ball was in the Bombers pocket.

The Essendon of 1999-2001 was a once in a generation side. Its clear that their coaching style is rubbing off on the players and they have a free licence to attack. Highly suggest if you didnt watch much of the Bombers in 2000, to get a few videos and watch them in that season. Pretty amazing side that one. I think they had the most dominant season , since ive been alive anyway.

Probably gotta make most of what attacking talent they have given playing the slow-go mode hasnt worked for them in the past.

Didn’t miss a game in 2000 & such was the confidence as a supporter, you knew most games was essentially over by qtr time if not HT, so explosive were we from the start.

Truth is the second we choked away 99 & a probable flag, we were hellbent on not even entertaining losing a game. There was however a collective relief when we dropped the famous dogs game in Rd 21 as it renewed our hunger again to destroy North, Carl, Dees en route to flag.

Phenomenal year as a supporter.

 

[burge13]

Absolute speculation here and no evidence to back this up.

Rankine is in a contract year and his potential next employer ie South Aussie teams, in the next two weeks, Crows than Port.

2 big games from him in the next two weeks, would add massive $$$ to his contract as he could leverage this with any offer from the Suns.

Motivation and being up for a game is a big key with these campaigners going for goals. Food for thought.

Christ i hope we dont spend much getting/paying him

 

[Robo87]

Following the Rankine and Rachele trains

im also on board here- goals 2-5
everyone needs some R & R!

 

[Man of leisure]

I mean I am a bit of a percentage guy but playing around further tonight with the calculator, fair to say that there is no algorithm or formula who SB determine their odds.

take this for example

Casboult to Score 3+ Goals = $3.40
Keays 3+ Goals = $34, Hately 3+ Goals= $34, Soligo 3+ Goals= $34, Dawson 3+ Goals= $34, McHenry 3+ Goals= $34, Laird 3+ Goals = $34


if you put a SGM involving goals:
Casboult 3+, Keays 3+ : 191
Casboult 3+, Hately 3+ : 181
Casboult 3+, Soligo 3+ : 83
Casboult 3+, Dawson 3+ : 171
Casboult 3+, McHenry 3+ : 84
Casboult 3+, Laird 3+ : 301

I guess maybe in answering my own question, they probably have a cap on 3+ Goals, but there is a pecking order with their 2+ Goals markets, which is why McHenry and Soligo are shorter. That never hit me until now.

Looking at that further and yes I am being picky with my odds but you would want at least 100/1 on The Casboult/Soligo combo and Casboult/McHenry combo listed there.

Don’t know why this isn’t going through as text

 

[GROTTO]

im also on board here- goals 2-5
everyone needs some R & R!

Tried to get some R and R for 4+ for both at $701

SB wont let me get anything on it. They know.

 

[fpm84]

SB wont let me get anything on it. They know.

View attachment 1427623

This worked 30 mins ago, looks like they’ve changed it.

 

[Del125763]

Didn’t miss a game in 2000 & such was the confidence as a supporter, you knew most games was essentially over by qtr time if not HT, so explosive were we from the start.

Truth is the second we choked away 99 & probable flag, we were hellbent on not even entertaining losing a game. There was however a collective relief when we dropped the famous dogs game in Rd 21 as it renewed our hunger again to destroy North, Carl, Dees en route to flag.

Phenomenal year as a supporter.

As a neutral supporter, every team in the comp that year wanted Essendon to lose. They were that good. They went 62-12 in 99-2001. I think the Hawks 2013-2015 also deserve special mention (61-15). It would be a pretty good contest if those two sides played, im not sure who would win. I dont rate rate Richmonds premierships from 2017-2020 as highly or their dominance in that period of time despite winning 3 premierships in 4 years. The mystery was how that Ess team didnt win more than 1 premiership in that era (they had a 4-5 year window ). It takes a pretty special team to go through a season at most 3-4 games a season.

But yeah Solomon, Hird and Mark McVeigh style of play has been rubbing off on this GWS team. Not sure how their game style will come up against the better defensive setups like a: Freo, Geelong or Melbourne.

Players like: Lloyd, Hird, Dustin Fletcher, Bewick, Mark Johnson, Long, Misiti in the same team were like poetry together.

I dont usually bet outrights on coaches but if McVeigh is coaching like he did, I think he gets the job from here.




I think a team like GWS, someone mentioned that the AFL wouldn't be too willing to take a risk on someone like Hird especially being a start-up franchise and wanting to keep their clean image.

McVeigh seems like the right fit for that club , being from NSW and living in Sydney for a fair while now.

 

[Del125763]

Ill just tune into the game by following the app on my phone today- got some stuff to do on R Studio for my company this week.

But in terms of points do we fancy the Under or Over today?

Under 162.5 pts $1.90 v $1.90 Over 162.5 pts

 

[Ohh Ok]

Yesterday was a bit of a roller coaster day. Can’t believe swans didn’t come back and cover the second half line or win the game.

Went 5/5 on the Dogs/GWS game which helped things.

3u - Rachele 10+ disposals & AGS - $1.90 - 365
1u - Rachele 2+ goals - $3.90 - SB
0.5u - Rachele 3+ goals - $12.50 - SB
The 10+ and AGS has happened in 7/10 games for the young gun and after an extended rest he’ll be ready to come back in and hit the rest of the season hard. Has kicked 2+ goals in 3/10 games so far making $4 value. In his ten games, 7/10 he has hit the scoreboard at least twice which highlights his ability to get shots away.

3u - Miller over 29.5 disposals - $1.80 - TopSport
The crows have been letting opponent’s main accumulator rack up high disposal counts, that person for the Suns is Miller. Last year he went over this in 17/21 this year he’s only gone over in 6/12 so far. Touk has had some tough runs this year, but should be ready to go for a big back end of the year after freshening up during bye week.


3u - Walker 2+ goals - $1.75 - SB
1u - Walker 3+ goals - $3.50 - SB
1u - Walker 4+ goals - $8 - SB
Have to hit the value in Tex here. Is 6/8 for 2+, 4/8 for 3+ and 2/8 for 4+ goals. Last year he went 13/17 for 2+, 9/17 for 3+ and 5/17 for 4+. Had 6.3 when he line up against the Suns. Expecting the big fella to be feeling great after the week off.

 

[mac23]

Tex 3+
Rankine 2+
Rachele 2+
$68 SB

 

[TheCandyMan]

Tex $5.75 most goals is value

O'Brien 20+ $4.20, Berry 20+ $3.70 worth a dart

All sb

On Pixel 6 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[NonPhixion]

bit of sunday fun
Fog 2+
Rachele AGS
Anderson 80+ Fantasy
$10.92 PB

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Anyone else hate having only 1 game on Sunday? If they want Thursday surely push one from Saturday

 

[X_box_X]

Anyone else hate having only 1 game on Sunday? If they want Thursday surely push one from Saturday

You know what shits me? It's not even televised on free to air in Victoria.

 

[X_box_X]

Norwood v Port Adelaide


Matt Panos most goals at $6 w Topsport


Good value here. Panos is a well credentialed goal kicker who was on the Western Bulldogs list in 2012. This is only his second SANFL game of the season, which is why I believe we're getting an attractive price. He kicked four goals in his previous match.

The two players priced shorter than him (Dylan Williams and Ben Jarvis) aren't in great goal kicking form. Jarvis was held goalless last week and has only kicked two goals in his past four matches. Williams has been held goalless in his previous two matches and today he has a tough assignment against Jack Heard who is a rock down back for the Redlegs.

 

[Selim]

im fully onboard for the Rachele and Fogarty trains here lads

Fog 2,3,4,5 @3.84, 12, 42, 151

Rachele 2,3,4,5 @4.49, 14.77, 53.45, 235

Holman 2,3 @6, 19

Rankine 5+ @37

 

[LukeParkerno1]

You know what shits me? It's not even televised on free to air in Victoria.

Lol that’s just really silly

 

[Selim]

15 dollar bonus bet
Rankine 2+
Ainsworth 2+
McAdam 2+
@10.50

Rowe 1+
Ellis 1+
Miller 1+
McHenry 1+
Keays 1+
@70

 

[lids2richo]

Tex 3+
Rankine 2+
Rachele 2+
$68 SB

Only paying $24.50 now lol.

Does anyone else use the 1 leg fails money back for a free hit at first goal scorer (long shot goal scorer into 2 very short legs) and then use the bonus bet on a multi that I would've done anyway? Or am I being silly doing that? A few weeks ago I fluked 5/9

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Only paying $24.50 now lol.

Does anyone else use the 1 leg fails money back for a free hit at first goal scorer (long shot goal scorer into 2 very short legs) and then use the bonus bet on a multi that I would've done anyway? Or am I being silly doing that? A few weeks ago I fluked 5/9

If it’s a bonus I always have a roughie in there

 

[Ohh Ok]

Decent $101 shot
Gold Coast/Miller 30+/Laird 25+/Keays 25+/Anderson 20+/Rankine 2+/Rachele2+/Tex 3+