AFL 2022 AFL Round 15

[balmainforever]

POSTING OF BETS AND RESULTS AFTER THE FACT WILL NOT BE TOLERATED ANYMORE!!
ANYONE WHO DOES IT WILL BE GIVEN A HOLIDAY.

CONSIDER THIS EVERYONE'S FINAL WARNING!!!!!!

 

[balmainforever]

 

[GROTTO]

Tough round for the degenerates, but we keep punching.

 

[Atavistic]

2MP is 6+@6.50 at B365 but @34 at TAB.

 

[NonPhixion]

2MP is 6+@6.50 at B365 but @34 at TAB.

McGovern will be out, 34 is probably not bad odds.

 

[burge13]

Put a bit on Dogs -14.5 and wont be surprised if that hits 20.5 or more by bounce. Rarely play afl lines early in week so imagine thats why they let more than $1.28 on like you blokes would get?

 

[NonPhixion]

Put a bit on Dogs -14.5 and wont be surprised if that hits 20.5 or more by bounce. Rarely play afl lines early in week so imagine thats why they let more than $1.28 on like you blokes would get?

that game is doing some weird things this morning.
got out to 20.5 on TAB about an hour ago and then recently back into 16.5, not sure if TAB has got wind of something but its still 20.5 on Pointsbet

 

[jikost]

Tom Atkins

30

Tom Atkins

Age

28

Ht

180cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.5

3star

K

5.0

2star

HB

6.5

4star

M

1.4

2star

T

4.3

5star

MG

123.5

2star

D

6.5

1star

K

3.0

1star

HB

3.5

2star

M

0.8

1star

T

1.5

2star

MG

100.0

2star

D

11.6

3star

K

5.0

2star

HB

6.6

4star

M

2.0

3star

T

4.8

5star

MG

130.0

3star

20+ @ $2 tab - Had the highest CBA % of any Geelong mid on Saturday and finished with 24 disposals. Playing Richmond this week who always concede big disposal numbers.

25+ @ $6
30+ @ $31

 

[LicoriceAllsorts]

-14.5 well unders according to my model

Model is picking dogs by 33.6, and when picking 30+ with the line below 20, the favourite has covered 9/9 times this year and 79% over the last 3 years

 

[EFL Boy]

Few early ones that stuck out:

WC/ESS
Petruccelle - 4 games this season (2.2, 0.2, 1.0, 1.2)
1 $1.70
2+ $4.25 TAB

GEEL/RICH
Close - Goal in 9/13 this season inc. previous 4 games. 2+ shots on goal in 7/13.
1 $1.80
2+ $4.75 TAB

Menegola - First game back last week kicked 2.1
1 $2.50 TAB
2+ $5.50 B365

Edwards - Goals in 3 of last 4 games and shots on goal in all of them.
1 $2.25 B365
2+ $7 TAB

Vlaustin - Has cleared 20+ 7/8 this season.
20+ $1.70 TAB

NM/ADEL
Davies-Uniacke - Has cleared 25+ in 4 of his last 5 games.
25+ $2.40 TAB

PA/GC
Rozee - Goals in his previous 3 matches and shots on goal in his previous 5.
1 $2.05 TAB

 

[Atavistic]

I think Hately 25+@3.50 is okay. Got it the last three games.

 

[Man of leisure]

I think Hately 25+@3.50 is okay. Got it the last three games.

Tailed

2MP is 6+@6.50 at B365 but @34 at TAB.

Peter is only any chop under the dome. I think Darling@34 for 5 and 101 for 6 is more likely

 

[Man of leisure]

Any reason why text isn’t working either?

 

[jikost]

I think Hately 25+@3.50 is okay. Got it the last three games.

Yeah, Adelaide playing North this week too, so Crows mids should all rack them up.

I'm also taking Berry 25+ @ $10 given he hit 25 on the weekend.

 

[EFL Boy]

Hately 25+
Berry 25+
Davies-Uniacke 25+

$29 B365.

 

[X_box_X]

 

[X_box_X]

2MP is 6+@6.50 at B365 but @34 at TAB.

$251 w Moneyball

 

[Johanpetro]

$251 w Moneyball

Have they taken market down?

 

[X_box_X]

Have they taken market down?

Just keep monitoring it throughout the week. They had those odds a few weeks ago. They have a history of stuffing up his odds.

Here is a screenshot of his odds to kick a goal against the Bulldogs earlier in the year.

 

[Johanpetro]

Just keep monitoring it throughout the week. They had those odds a few weeks ago. They have a history of stuffing up his odds.

Here is a screenshot of his odds to kick a goal against the Bulldogs earlier in the year.

Geez I just downloaded the app and it is a deadset POS to use haha….

 

[BloodRet]

McCarthy

Bont 2

Kennedy 2

Curnow 2
Walters

Hawkins 2
Reiwoldt 2

Paps 2

Rachele 2

Greene 2
Elliot
@177 boosted neds

 

[The Brownlow Guru]

Rankine

2+ $2.90 (2u)
3+ $7.50 (0.5u)
4+ $21.00 (0.5u)

SB

Two weeks since the bye has gone 2.3 and 3.2. 11 score involvements and 14 inside 50's against Adelaide. Thought he was best on ground personally and possibly the best game of his career.

Faces a tougher opponent here in Port but strikes me as a confidence player and rolls into this matchup with a lot it.

 

[anabac]

Dogs, cats, swans at $4+ will do me

 

[Pacman82]

BL 1-39
Cameron 3+
Bailey 2+
Neale 1+
@52.7 Ned's Boosted

 

[Jonsyd1]

Daniher 2

Bont AGS
Sicily 20

J Cripps AGS
Heppell 20
Ridley 15

McAdam 2

Buddy 3
100 @ $18 lads

For the season
Daniher 7/7 (excluding game he got injured)
Bont 12/12
Sicily 13/13
J Cripps 7/9
Heppell 10/13 (averages well at Optus and against the Eagles)
Ridley 10/11
McAdam 6/9 (kicked 3 against North in both games last year)

Interesting stat, since 2019 Franklin has kicked a single goal in a game 9 times. The weeks after kicking a single goal he’s kicked: 3.3, 4.1, 5.4, 4.2, 4.2, 6.2, 4.0, 2.4, ??