AFL 2022 AFL Round 15

[balmainforever]

POSTING OF BETS AND RESULTS AFTER THE FACT WILL NOT BE TOLERATED ANYMORE!!
ANYONE WHO DOES IT WILL BE GIVEN A HOLIDAY.

CONSIDER THIS EVERYONE'S FINAL WARNING!!!!!!

 

[Del125763]

Melbourne would probably fancy their chances against Brisbane in a cagey affair rather than a shoot-out.

Its 1 v 2 and being a top of the table clash both teams will have an eye on the minor premiership.

Feel like this match could follow a similar pattern to Fremantle v Brisbane a few weeks back at Perth Stadium. Brisbane will fancy their chances in a higher scoring shoot out.

Id have the line at around 166.5 points - thats having a prediction without looking at the totals as of today. 1 slow quarter will see this line move downwards pretty quickly in-play.

 

[Atavistic]

Has there been any news saying he will? He is a full back in a team that has no other defenders. 600s seems unders on face value

Bit of late night madness from me.

 

[Aristotle Pickett the3rd]

Brisbane to win looks like good value to me this week. Melbourne are badly out of form and will miss Gawn.

(From betfair)​

AFL EXPERT TIPS | ROUND 15​

MELBOURNE VS BRISBANE LIONS​

​

The top two teams play each other in a possible Grand Final preview at the MCG. This is a genuine 8-point game that could have massive consequences on the top four.

Brisbane don’t have a great record at the MCG, but they have barely played there since becoming a consistent top four team. Melbourne’s best source of scoring is out of the stoppage, and without Max Gawn

11

Max Gawn

Age

33

Ht

209cm

Wt

110kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.1

4star

K

7.4

3star

HB

6.7

4star

CL

2.8

4star

HO

35.3

5star

D

18.5

4star

K

11.5

4star

HB

7.0

4star

CL

3.5

4star

HO

29.2

5star

D

8.4

3star

K

3.6

2star

HB

4.8

4star

CL

1.0

3star

HO

15.6

5star

, this is an area where the Lions can outwork them.

Giving the Lions a big chance with the head start at the line, in what should be a tightly contested game, with with the best defence against the best offence.

BETTING STRATEGY S​

BACK: Brisbane Lions +5.5 @ $1.87+

 

[Fizza]

Brisbane to win looks like good value to me this week. Melbourne are badly out of form and will miss Gawn.

(From betfair)​

AFL EXPERT TIPS | ROUND 15​

MELBOURNE VS BRISBANE LIONS​

​

The top two teams play each other in a possible Grand Final preview at the MCG. This is a genuine 8-point game that could have massive consequences on the top four.

Brisbane don’t have a great record at the MCG, but they have barely played there since becoming a consistent top four team. Melbourne’s best source of scoring is out of the stoppage, and without Max Gawn, this is an area where the Lions can outwork them.

Giving the Lions a big chance with the head start at the line, in what should be a tightly contested game, with with the best defence against the best offence.

BETTING STRATEGY S​

BACK: Brisbane Lions +5.5 @ $1.87+

Sportsbet have lions 6.5+ @ 1.90

 

[jikost]

Banfield 4+ @ $46 sb
Banfield 5+ @ $171

Has kicked 6 in the last 2 weeks and comes up against a makeshift Carlton backline on Sunday at Marvel Stadium. Taberner isn't playing so he definitely keeps his spot. 4+ is $9 on tab and $7.5 at 365 so nice price at sb for Bailey.

 

[BloodRet]

I'm a day trader and also crypto investor. Time is money. I am also a football analyst and semi professional punter so needed to lock this in by mid day today.
Cheers.

Post of the year

 

[Aristotle Pickett the3rd]

Brisbane to win looks like good value to me this week. Melbourne are badly out of form and will miss Gawn.

(From betfair)​

AFL EXPERT TIPS | ROUND 15​

MELBOURNE VS BRISBANE LIONS​

​

The top two teams play each other in a possible Grand Final preview at the MCG. This is a genuine 8-point game that could have massive consequences on the top four.

Brisbane don’t have a great record at the MCG, but they have barely played there since becoming a consistent top four team. Melbourne’s best source of scoring is out of the stoppage, and without Max Gawn, this is an area where the Lions can outwork them.

Giving the Lions a big chance with the head start at the line, in what should be a tightly contested game, with with the best defence against the best offence.

BETTING STRATEGY S​

BACK: Brisbane Lions +5.5 @ $1.87+

Betfair currently have Brisbane +6.5 @$1.98 and that will improve closer to the game.
Betfair almost always have better line and h2h markets as they only take 1% to 3% as opposed to 5% to 15%.

 

[GROTTO]

Post of the year

What else would you expect from Oraz.

 

[GROTTO]

POSTING OF BETS AND RESULTS AFTER THE FACT WILL NOT BE TOLERATED ANYMORE!!
ANYONE WHO DOES IT WILL BE GIVEN A HOLIDAY.

CONSIDER THIS EVERYONE'S FINAL WARNING!!!!!!

Bali ?

Jordan De Goey likes this post.

 

[FrankGrimes]

So why are the bulldogs 1.40 to beat hawthorn?
The bulldogs will need to win for finals prospects
at etihad as well

is there something i'm missing?

Put your entire account on it, always listen to random degenerate gamblers on a punting forum.

 

[Pacman82]

I am normally pretty good as a dees fan at tipping our games and was all over the pies last week... once again the lions here... 7.5 start its drifted a further 2 points with Zorko being out... yet they have an in form forward line something we don't have... I really don't get it... I guess the bookies are just waiting for a melbourne statement game.. maybe the bye does refresh us but I still think this should be coin flip odds..

I take a similar position. Last time they met McStay was subbed off in the first 5 mins too. Looking forward to this one!

 

[Selim]

i really dont Understand how Wedierman comes in a guy who barely kicks goals when he plays but he comes in and is @2 for 2 goals he should be 2.75 at minimum

 

[GROTTO]

i really dont Understand how Wedierman comes in a guy who barely kicks goals when he plays but he comes in and is @2 for 2 goals he should be 2.75 at minimum

Odds also a reflection of the Lions drifting out and Dees being shorter priced now.

 

[GROTTO]

De Goey......De Gone for the weekend.

Wont play.

 

[X_box_X]

I'm not sure if taking $1.50 is huge, huge value, but including Jackson for 15+ disposals w TAB in your multis could be an option. Those same outcomes are paying $1.25 and $1.24 w Sportsbet and Neds respectively.

Only averaging 14.8 disposals for the season, but obviously with Gawn out and Jackson assuming the mantle as the number one ruckman, you can probably add one more disposal per quarter onto that.

If that doesn't inspire you, perhaps you can take some comfort knowing he has cleared that total in four of his past five matches with Gawn in the side.

 

[X_box_X]

Melbourne v Brisbane
Total match points = Even at $1.91 w Moneyball

A lot of books have suspended this market including Topsport, TAB, Sportsbet and Pointsbet.

Facts are facts and you shouldn't look beyond them.

In 7 of Melbourne's past 8 matches, the total has landed on even.
In 8 of Brisbane's 13 matches this season, the total had landed on even.


My work here is done.


* It's likely Topsport, TAB, et al don't actually offer these odds and it's more likely I am totally taking the piss by suggesting this market has been suspended.



** Gamble responsibly.

 

[mozz23]

A few I’m on so far this week:

Durham 15+ $1.99 SB 6/11 should get space on Optus on the wing
Caldwell 20+ $2.20 lads 7/12 getting more mid minutes now
Redman 25+ $3.10 SB 4 of last 6

McStay 2/3 $4.25/$13 PB
Cleared 5/11 2/11

Anyone know anything about this tunstill bloke from Brisbane?

He is $3.75 ATG at lads as short as $1.70 elsewhere

 

[Pacman82]

BL 1-39
Cameron 3+
Bailey 2+
Neale 1+
@52.7 Ned's Boosted

Now becomes..

BL 1-39
Daniher 3+
Cameron 2+
McCarthy 2 +
Neale 1+
@70.8 Neds

 

[Karp3_dm]

I'm a day trader and also crypto investor. Time is money. I am also a football analyst and semi professional punter so needed to lock this in by mid day today.
Cheers.

 

[Ohh Ok]

2u - Collingwood under 1.5 negative media incidents - $1.90
Round 16 play. Have had a busy week this week so expecting players to be on their best behaviour next week. Slight risk involved due to recent form but think they switch it on.

3u - Rich 25+ disposals - $1.75 - TAB
8/13 this year, 17/24 last year, 2/2 against the Dees last year. Bet stats up pretty well statistically, with the Dees being a great side for his type to go over

2.5u - Lyons over 24.5 disposals - $2.26 - TopSport
Or $2.25 TAB. Keen to get on with no Zorko and Bailey. Has been spending chunks of games in the forward line which was evident last game, but after Zorko went off he lit up with a 14 disposal quarter. With the forward line back to full strength and some personnel missing from the midfield the stage is set for him.

3u - Coleman 15+ disposals - $1.60 - SB
Similar play to Rich with a 7/8 strike rate on this number for the season.

3u - Farrar 15+ disposals - $1.80 - TAB
Has cleared in 5/7 games this year. With no Budarick, Weller or Powell in the side this opens up opportunities for him to become more active with the ball. In his last two games he’s led the side for kick ins, this only strengthens without Weller and Powell around.

 

[TheCandyMan]

Now becomes..

BL 1-39
Daniher 3+
Cameron 2+
McCarthy 2 +
Neale 1+
@70.8 Neds

Can get it for $117 on PB boosted

On Pixel 6 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[dontlimitme]

2u - Collingwood under 1.5 negative media incidents - $1.90
Round 16 play. Have had a busy week this week so expecting players to be on their best behaviour next week. Slight risk involved due to recent form but think they switch it on.

TAILED

 

[NonPhixion]

TAILED

 

[balmainforever]

I'm a day trader and also crypto investor. Time is money. I am also a football analyst and semi professional punter so needed to lock this in by mid day today.
Cheers.

hi oraz bye oraz

 

[jikost]

James Jordan AGS/25+ @ $10.43 pb - Last 3 weeks 3/3 for a goal and 2/3 for 25+ and had 24 the game he didn't hit 25.