AFL 2022 AFL Round 15

[balmainforever]

POSTING OF BETS AND RESULTS AFTER THE FACT WILL NOT BE TOLERATED ANYMORE!!
ANYONE WHO DOES IT WILL BE GIVEN A HOLIDAY.

CONSIDER THIS EVERYONE'S FINAL WARNING!!!!!!

 

[Del125763]

Serious question, does anyone in here rate BetDeluxe or am I just being a bit mental on a Friday arvo?

 

[Del125763]

Sportsbet Popular Same Game Multis with 404 and 400 punters on it



Here is the kiss of death for those punters if they want it after I gave it to Ziebell earlier in the year.

1st one- I reckon only 1 of : O'Meara , Bontempelli or Dunkley score a goal. But not all 3. Im guessing the reason why those punters are thinking Impey and Sicily can cover their disposals and they may as well. But Impey hasnt ever struck me as someone that is super fit and can run out a game. Both have been labelled in defence. I'd feel more confident about Sicily covering his line over Impey.

2nd one- Sicily looks a bit risky at those odds to clear his line and I think Rhylee West

14

Rhylee West

Age

25

Ht

183cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.3

3star

K

5.7

2star

HB

6.7

4star

M

2.5

3star

T

1.5

3star

G

0.5

3star

D

12.0

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

6.0

3star

M

2.7

3star

T

2.0

3star

G

0.3

3star

D

13.0

4star

K

5.6

3star

HB

7.4

5star

M

2.2

3star

T

1.4

4star

G

0.6

3star

obviously is not a shoe-in. West is probably a 50:50 chance of scoring a goal. (60:40 at best)

Do feel its the kind of game Dogs can get more of the ball with.

They Key stat why it may be an uncontested ball game in favour of the Dogs.:

In 2022 Net Uncontested Disposals per game:
Bulldogs +27.8 (Rank 4th) v Hawks -21.9 (Rank 15th)

In 2021 Net Uncontested Disposals per game:
Bulldogs +15.5 (Rank 4th) v Hawks +14.2 (Rank 5th)


Getting Sam Mitchell on side as the new coach has led to the Hawks ditching their slow, conservative chip/mark style from last year. Watching a few of the Hawks games this year, at times they have played a pretty attractive style compared to alot of other teams.

 

[Its not the coach]

Sportsbet Popular Same Game Multis with 404 and 400 punters on it

View attachment 1431199

Here is the kiss of death for those punters if they want it after I gave it to Ziebell earlier in the year.

1st one- I reckon only 1 of : O'Meara , Bontempelli or Dunkley score a goal. But not all 3.

2nd one- Sicily looks a bit risky at those odds to clear his line and I think Rhylee West obviously is not a shoe-in. West is probably a 50:50 chance of scoring a goal. (60:40 at best)

Do feel its the kind of game Dogs can get more of the ball with.

They Key stat why it may be an uncontested ball game in favour of the Dogs.:

In 2022 Net Uncontested Disposals per game:
Bulldogs +27.8 (Rank 4th) v Hawks -21.9 (Rank 15th)

In 2021 Net Uncontested Disposals per game:
Bulldogs +15.5 (Rank 4th) v Hawks +14.2 (Rank 5th)


Getting Sam Mitchell on side as the new coach has led to the Hawks ditching their slow, conservative chip/mark style from last year. Watching a few of the Hawks games this year, at times they have played a pretty attractive style compared to alot of other teams.

I done a popular same gamer last week, It's something I would never normally do. They are just a set up to fail thing from a bookie, Why would they set up bets if they thought they would win. If you like something put a multi together your self.

 

[Del125763]

Sportsbet Popular Same Game Multis with 404 and 400 punters on it

View attachment 1431199

Here is the kiss of death for those punters if they want it after I gave it to Ziebell earlier in the year.

1st one- I reckon only 1 of : O'Meara , Bontempelli or Dunkley score a goal. But not all 3. Im guessing the reason why those punters are thinking Impey and Sicily can cover their disposals and they may as well. But Impey hasnt ever struck me as someone that is super fit and can run out a game. Both have been labelled in defence. I'd feel more confident about Sicily covering his line over Impey.

2nd one- Sicily looks a bit risky at those odds to clear his line and I think Rhylee West obviously is not a shoe-in. West is probably a 50:50 chance of scoring a goal. (60:40 at best)

Do feel its the kind of game Dogs can get more of the ball with.

They Key stat why it may be an uncontested ball game in favour of the Dogs.:

In 2022 Net Uncontested Disposals per game:
Bulldogs +27.8 (Rank 4th) v Hawks -21.9 (Rank 15th)

In 2021 Net Uncontested Disposals per game:
Bulldogs +15.5 (Rank 4th) v Hawks +14.2 (Rank 5th)


Getting Sam Mitchell on side as the new coach has led to the Hawks ditching their slow, conservative chip/mark style from last year. Watching a few of the Hawks games this year, at times they have played a pretty attractive style compared to alot of other teams.

As soon as I posted that review, its been crunched into 90.00



Im telling you guys, that aint coming through. This is the reason why Sportsbet get rich.

 

[Del125763]

I done a popular same gamer last week, It's something I would never normally do. They are just a set up to fail thing from a bookie, Why would they set up bets if they thought they would win. If you like something put a multi together your self.

I do like what your doing with some of the bets Ive seen, where you do multis on separate games. I do think that gives you a better chance than a Same game Multi.

 

[patrickb29796]

Hellboy101 still around?

 

[Its not the coach]

I do like what your doing with some of the bets Ive seen, where you do multis on separate games. I do think that gives you a better chance than a Same game Multi.

Yes, I believe It gives you a better chance as your not relying on to many things in the same game time, Yet the odds are still multiplying into the next one

 

[BloodRet]

Sportsbet Popular Same Game Multis with 404 and 400 punters on it

View attachment 1431199

Here is the kiss of death for those punters if they want it after I gave it to Ziebell earlier in the year.

1st one- I reckon only 1 of : O'Meara , Bontempelli or Dunkley score a goal. But not all 3. Im guessing the reason why those punters are thinking Impey and Sicily can cover their disposals and they may as well. But Impey hasnt ever struck me as someone that is super fit and can run out a game. Both have been labelled in defence. I'd feel more confident about Sicily covering his line over Impey.

2nd one- Sicily looks a bit risky at those odds to clear his line and I think Rhylee West obviously is not a shoe-in. West is probably a 50:50 chance of scoring a goal. (60:40 at best)

Do feel its the kind of game Dogs can get more of the ball with.

They Key stat why it may be an uncontested ball game in favour of the Dogs.:

In 2022 Net Uncontested Disposals per game:
Bulldogs +27.8 (Rank 4th) v Hawks -21.9 (Rank 15th)

In 2021 Net Uncontested Disposals per game:
Bulldogs +15.5 (Rank 4th) v Hawks +14.2 (Rank 5th)


Getting Sam Mitchell on side as the new coach has led to the Hawks ditching their slow, conservative chip/mark style from last year. Watching a few of the Hawks games this year, at times they have played a pretty attractive style compared to alot of other teams.

There’s no way Sportsbet let those popular sgms get up when there’s 400 punters on it @101. Let’s say they have 5-10 on each, that’s 300k they have to pay out just from that multi. That’s when the brown envelopes come out I reckon.

 

[teamlenny]

Serious question, does anyone in here rate BetDeluxe or am I just being a bit mental on a Friday arvo?

Are slower to kick you out than most the other Betmaker skins but overall the product they offer is pretty ordinary for sport

 

[Its not the coach]

There’s no way Sportsbet let those popular sgms get up when there’s 400 punters on it @101. Let’s say they have 5-10 on each, that’s 300k they have to pay out just from that multi. That’s when the brown envelopes come out I reckon.

They know they are very rarely if ever going to get up

 

[Hellboy101]

Hellboy101 still around?

I am indeed. Haven't posted this year yet. Will post a few bets I placed earlier in the week.

 

[Del125763]

There’s no way Sportsbet let those popular sgms get up when there’s 400 punters on it @101. Let’s say they have 5-10 on each, that’s 300k they have to pay out just from that multi. That’s when the brown envelopes come out I reckon.

I have a background in accounting as well but its been a fair while since I've looked at Annual Financial reports and all but from what im seeing here:



I think their business is getting bigger and stronger. I mean from my side I see that their still making a profit (heavily) even after taking into account their tax and expenses. If Im right in reading that, in Australia over 1 million customers use Sportsbet on a monthly basis. (which I thought seemed a bit high on initial inspection). Thats roughly 1 in 26 people in Australia that uses it (Not factoring account the kids of this country)

I also know their daily limits are around $1 million payout per customer per day. I think SB will be fine in these payouts but they will obviously have a monitor on what they can take and liability per market at the same time.

 

[patrickb29796]

I am indeed. Haven't posted this year yet. Will post a few bets I placed earlier in the week.

Too easy, thanks mate

 

[ShaunWDT]

That Stringer bet does feel overs, hit 5/10 post bye last year when the mid opportunity came.

 

[teamlenny]

There’s no way Sportsbet let those popular sgms get up when there’s 400 punters on it @101. Let’s say they have 5-10 on each, that’s 300k they have to pay out just from that multi. That’s when the brown envelopes come out I reckon.

SGMs are 30-40% margin for them long term, its a money printer, they can handle it.

 

[anabac]

Personally think SB would be stoked if one of those popular SGM got up. Pretty much a mug-only market, so majority will put the winnings straight back through and it only encourages more gambling and turnover which is what it's all about. Also becomes a promotional tool on the socials etc. - look how many punters landed this crazy SGM!! = more people getting sucked in and more money for SB

 

[ShaunWDT]

Personally think SB would be stoked if one of those popular SGM got up. Pretty much a mug-only market, so majority will put the winnings straight back through and it only encourages more gambling and turnover which is what it's all about. Also becomes a promotional tool on the socials etc. - look how many punters landed this crazy SGM!! = more people getting sucked in and more money for SB

Same game multis are a mug market full stop, think of how many people put them on and hit 1 out of 10 every weekend, SB are happy to pay the ones that hit for all the money they reel in on losses on stupid bets.

 

[HTPunter]

There’s no way Sportsbet let those popular sgms get up when there’s 400 punters on it @101. Let’s say they have 5-10 on each, that’s 300k they have to pay out just from that multi. That’s when the brown envelopes come out I reckon.

More likely they have 10000 on it the next week putting 10 on because "it hit last week!". 300k is nothing for Sportsbet, they spent 139 mil on advertising in 2020. They aren't fixing a disposals multi at 106-1 Jesus christ

 

[Selim]

i will forever be on Jamarra til the day i die 2-5 @3.20, 9.25, 34, 118

 

[Del125763]

Same game multis are a mug market full stop, think of how many people put them on and hit 1 out of 10 every weekend, SB are happy to pay the ones that hit for all the money they reel in on losses on stupid bets.

I was playing around with the Same Game Multi calculator for these markets, it doesnt really work out to be that useful for these long legs. Ive just done a margin comparison for a 2 leg SGM, 3 leg SGM and 4 Leg SGM (and did do a 5 leg SGM). A 5 leg Same Game multi is around a 38% margin on my spreadsheet. The odds listed on the SGM Sportsbet calculator often for some reason gives you even further reduced odds on the Disposals anyway. (The TopSport Calculator doesnt reduce your accumulator as you add more legs) eg you cant get $3.42 at Sportsbet on Treloar Under 28.5 and Bontempelli Under 25.5 at 1.78 x 1.92 = 3.42. it will be often be a far more reduced price than that.





Anyway its something I seriously never thought about until now. What the margins are for those 4 Leg SGM, 5 Leg SGM, 6 Leg SGM so on.......And you would imagine the margins only 15+, 20+, 25+ Disposals would be worse, since there is no alternative under options for these prices. Goalscorer markets from time to time are short on certain players but i think you would only be able to spot those kind of things with experience.

The more legs you have , the higher the margins they are.

 

[ShaunWDT]

i will forever be on Jamarra til the day i die 2-5 @3.20, 9.25, 34, 118

I said I was done betting on him but probably gets the 3rd or 4th defender tonight, worth a small go.

 

[Del125763]

I was playing around with the Same Game Multi calculator for these markets, it doesnt really work out to be that useful for these long legs. Ive just done a margin comparison for a 2 leg SGM, 3 leg SGM and 4 Leg SGM (and did do a 5 leg SGM). A 5 leg Same Game multi is around a 38% margin on my spreadsheet. The odds listed on the SGM Sportsbet calculator often for some reason gives you even further reduced odds on the Disposals anyway. (The TopSport Calculator doesnt reduce your accumulator as you add more legs) eg you cant get $3.42 at Sportsbet on Treloar Under 28.5 and Bontempelli Under 25.5 at 1.78 x 1.92 = 3.42. it will be often be a far more reduced price than that.

View attachment 1431308



Anyway its something I seriously never thought about until now. What the margins are for those 4 Leg SGM, 5 Leg SGM, 6 Leg SGM so on.......And you would imagine the margins only 15+, 20+, 25+ Disposals would be worse, since there is no alternative under options for these prices. Goalscorer markets from time to time are short on certain players but i think you would only be able to spot those kind of things with experience.

The more legs you have , the higher the margins they are.

So yeah to further on the point

if you did a SGM on Sportsbets calculator

Under Treloar , Under Bont = $3.30
Under Treloar, Over Bont= $3.60
Over Treloar, Under Bont= $3.25
Over Treloar, Over Bont= $3.10


Thats what the sportsbet app allows you, which is a margin of 121.11%. (Which is higher than the spreadsheet calculated value of 112.70%). But Like i said before, TopSport wouldnt undercut the odds . Their algorithm simply multiplies all odds at all costs for the SGM.

 

[BloodRet]

More likely they have 10000 on it the next week putting 10 on because "it hit last week!". 300k is nothing for Sportsbet, they spent 139 mil on advertising in 2020. They aren't fixing a disposals multi at 106-1 Jesus christ

Lol yeah Sportsbet are clean as a whistle bro never fixed a bet in their existence. I know what you’re saying it’s a stretch they’d be fixing those multies but you can’t put anything past that mug organisation. 100% they’ve fixed bets in the AFL before. Would be very uncommon but has happened.

 

[Selim]

why are there 2 games on tonight?

 

[GROTTO]

why are there 2 games on tonight?

Because degenerates can multi multiple trains from 4 teams.