AFL 2022 AFL Round 15

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POSTING OF BETS AND RESULTS AFTER THE FACT WILL NOT BE TOLERATED ANYMORE!!
ANYONE WHO DOES IT WILL BE GIVEN A HOLIDAY.

CONSIDER THIS EVERYONE'S FINAL WARNING!!!!!!

 

[BloodRet]

Bro what odds Stringer hits the post

1.01 bro

 

[freo_leo29]

where has billie rioli gone

 

[Selim]

cmon billie rioli you got another in you surely

 

[freo_leo29]

YES YOU FOSSIL

 

[Mazza1234678]

Essendon

the gift that keeps on giving

 

[dontlimitme]

Essendon

the gift that keeps on giving

 

[Selim]

Rioli 2+ Wright 2+ Jones 2+ Kennedy 2+ @21

only a 5 dolalr bet but still lowkey shocked it got up

 

[BloodRet]

bro if stringer slotted that i wouldve jumped through my roof

 

[BloodRet]

was open there too

 

[LukeParkerno1]

And Kelly ends on 19…

Good times

 

[Its not the coach]

was open there too

Yep that other campaigner only had to get it to him on the 50, Bad luck mate

 

[Selim]

shocking first half think im done for the week lads unless rioli goes off

well was looking grimm ended up walking away with like 2 hundy

 

[BloodRet]

Yep that other campaigner only had to get it to him on the 50, Bad luck mate

cant be mad at stringer, had a good game

 

[Its not the coach]

cant be mad at stringer, had a good game

Played a bit of midfield too

 

[HTPunter]

Lol yeah Sportsbet are clean as a whistle bro never fixed a bet in their existence. I know what you’re saying it’s a stretch they’d be fixing those multies but you can’t put anything past that mug organisation. 100% they’ve fixed bets in the AFL before. Would be very uncommon but has happened.

OK sure how are they going to fix a 10 leg multi, to avoid a 300k payout you reckon? Gotta pay those 10 players a portion of what 250k, to make it worthwhile profit wise, so each player is getting 25k each...just accept you made a foolish statement to begin with, don't double down.

 

[Its not the coach]

cant be mad at stringer, had a good game

Nailed his chances unlike another streak of shit I can think of earlier

 

[Jonsyd1]

Harrison Jones 2
Waterman
Cripps
Heppell 20
Redden 20
$10 lads

Harrison jones you ripper

 

[Del125763]

OK sure how are they going to fix a 10 leg multi, to avoid a 300k payout you reckon? Gotta pay those 10 players a portion of what 250k, to make it worthwhile profit wise, so each player is getting 25k each...just accept you made a foolish statement to begin with, don't double down.

It would be fair to say that the margins are too heavily in favour of the bookies if you add too many legs in a same game multi.

Ideally, 3-4 legs should be the play, and as a punter Im happy to accept around a 30-35% margin on Same Game Multis. But the margins I quoted earlier on that spreadsheet, are a lot more higher - which is worser for punters.

 

[Del125763]

I speak in relation to the Disposals markets rather than Goalscorer markets as well. Think there are some pretty juicy odds on SGM goalscorer markets and at the end of the day its just down to a kick here or a kick there that can get you through the line.

 

[Jugada]

Might need to recalibrate if you legit think a bookmaker that prints money by just existing in this country would risk it all by trying to fix a bet type that they are raking in money from every round. The margins are so huge they don't need to worry about paying out a couple million to punters just because Dusty Martin kicked his two snags

 

[Its not the coach]

Why would they pay 10 players? They just have to pay one that's what a fix is. Not like they gotta pay every player so all 10 legs fail! LOL

It happens bro. Not a lot but it would happen at least once a season where a player is in on something with a bookie. AFL is 99.9% pure though

Players fix their own shit

 

[Del125763]

Might need to recalibrate if you legit think a bookmaker that prints money by just existing in this country would risk it all by trying to fix a bet type that they are raking in money from every round. The margins are so huge they don't need to worry about paying out a couple million to punters just because Dusty Martin kicked his two snags

Playing with the Sportsbet disposals today made me realise that at times they undercut the winnings or reduce the multi odds for disposals. It can be a bit up and down in terms of what you get at times. With TopSports its consistent in that you know what you are getting putting your same game multis together.

This is PointsBet lines for Disposals tomorrow Carlton v Freo game. (Yes I was bored on a Friday night and had no social life so decided to do this )



As a punter we arent going to get 0% margins- which I can fully accept. Where it gets touchy is when you add that 5th leg in a SGM. Based on my calculations using this as an example the margins bump up to 42.77% margins.


So to break it down:
Straight up bet is 6-7% Margin (Head to Head)
2 Leg SGM Margins is roughly around 13.17%
3 Leg SGM Margins is roughly around 21.78%
4 Leg SGM Margins is roughly around 30.24%
5 Leg SGM Margins is roughly around 42.77%


Sportsbet calculator usually gives you a much more larger margin - god knows why that is but Im guessing they are trying to suck us in . And yes I admit I get sucked in by the big odds alot of the time. The danger I feel with putting too many 15+, 20+, 25+ , 30+ Disposals is Sportsbet could give you a hack price on 20+ Disposals and that could very well be the danger leg in a SGM. I dont usually play the disposals markets and it would be good if Sportsbet take a leaf out of what they do in the US with FanDuel, where you can bet the Unders on Three pointers shot for instance, or give all alternate lines for Disposals- not in increments of 5 disposals.

A bet such as this in my opinion, should be above $8.00 every day of the week:



but hey each to their own, multis I guess are supposed to be for a bit of fun, and not taken too seriously. having that 'Bet Return' option is a valuable thing I guess if you are doing a 3 Leg SGM or a 4 Leg SGM.

Just a bit of food for thought from my side.

 

[Del125763]

PointsBet Margin whilst playing with their calculator actually turns out to be worser off than the margin listed above



As you can see from below by playing with the spreadsheets, and PointsBet app, the margin of 22.79% > 21.78%. (Not by much) So im thinking if SB take extra gravy from their margin, it seriously undermines the winnings for the punter.

 

[BloodRet]

Might need to recalibrate if you legit think a bookmaker that prints money by just existing in this country would risk it all by trying to fix a bet type that they are raking in money from every round. The margins are so huge they don't need to worry about paying out a couple million to punters just because Dusty Martin kicked his two snags

I getcha you are absolutely right. I tongue in cheek frequently about sportsbet paying players after shanking it 15 out, when obviously its not the case its a legit shank it happens. But you think it hasn't ever happened in sport? Where a player does something differently because they've been told by a bookie acquaintance? I reckon there's 1 or 2 at most on a current AFL list who got a bit of dirt on em from some time in their career. Just my opinion

 

[Del125763]

I getcha you are absolutely right. I tongue and cheek frequently about sportsbet paying players after shanking it 15 out, when obviously its not the case its a legit shank it happens. But you think it hasn't ever happened in sport? Where a player does something differently because they've been told by a bookie acquaintance? I reckon there's 1 or 2 at most on a current AFL list who got a bit of dirt on em from some time in their career. Just my opinion

i kind of agree with this. Wouldnt be too hard to get a mate or family member to set up an account and ask them to doing something a bit dodgy. There is a price to everything in life as the saying goes- no matter how well paid the AFL players are.

In cricket they call it 'spot-fixing' eg batting slowly in certain overs, bowlers decides to bowl pure filth in certain overs etc It would be pretty tough to catch out.