AFL 2022 AFL Round 2

[jikost]

James Rowbottom

8

James Rowbottom

Age

25

Ht

186cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.0

4star

K

8.1

3star

HB

5.9

4star

M

2.2

2star

T

4.3

5star

CL

2.0

4star

D

14.6

4star

K

9.0

4star

HB

5.6

3star

M

1.5

2star

T

3.4

4star

CL

2.5

4star

D

14.4

4star

K

7.8

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

3.6

5star

CL

1.2

4star

90+ fantasy points @ $2.85 lads - Cleared 90 in the practice match (93) and again in round 1 (99). Attended more CB's than any other Swan mid last week to go with 10 tackles. The forecast for tomorrow night isn't great and combined with the small ground, a contested slop is likely which should ensure another high tackle count for James which is ideal for racking up fantasy points.

 

[Selim]

feels like we are getting bags of 5 alot atm we gotta cash up on it while it last boys who is next? ahah

 

[Bucking Bronco]

15u outlay for 90u return.

If you pull the pin now you would probably finish the year as the post profitable AFL bettor in the world as far as units won

Even the famed Bet with Joel only makes his members 200 units over the course of a season!

 

[Atavistic]

This is a weird one. Laverde AGS is 1.36 at SB but 3.50 at B365. I personally doubt he plays forward as he hasn't done so for a year. But he's been named forward, so if he does play forward then 3.50 is good value. He's also 21 for 2 and 201 for 3 at B365.

But if he switches back, then probably Francis switches forward as he has trained with the forwards all preseason before getting injured. Francis is 2.25 AGS at B365 and not even listed at SB.

I don't know if I'm game enough to bet on Lav for goals, though. It could be one of those situations where you place the bet, then realise, too late, that he's playing in defence and it's a dud bet. It works in his favour that Baldwin has been dropped and Francis has kind of sucked as a forward but done well as a defender.

 

[The_Steadier]

Pretty sure The_Steadier had some wild multis with Curnow most goals and Macrae Most Disposals.
Can't be bothered digging too far back.
Wonder how he went

On SM-G965F using BigFooty.com mobile app

Yeah not tonight unfortunately.
I got those two legs, but missed on the 3rd big leg (with curnow most goals); being 1st, 2nd or 3rd goalkicker.






I hit the 1st, 2nd or 3rd goalkicker leg + macrare most possies in other multis, but those had owies for most goals.

Eg:





I'm only playing around with those with loose change this year as an experiment with the weird multiplier effect the SB algorithm applies on occasion, so not too fussed.

After 10 games in 2022 i'm encouraged with the results to date.
Outlay has been stuff all (~$50) and have been very close twice now to nailing a $500-1500 payout.

 

[Del125763]

PointsBet spreads for Swans v Geelong Stat Multiplier (Kicks x Handballs x Goals):





First thing first Heeney and Parker lines are too high. Yes they did get high scores last week in 432 and 490 respectively. For you guys that took the 3.50 on Franklin 2+ goals/10+ Disposals, i worked out he averages 11.63 disposals a game in his last 2 seasons. You probably need the Bud to kick 3 goals for that Overs to land.

My tips for this match using $1 stakes:

Heeney- UNDER 183
Parker - UNDER 170
Franklin- NO PLAY
Florent- OVER 56
Warner- NO PLAY
Gulden- OVER 38
Hayward- OVER 30
Rowbottom-OVER 29
Dangerfield- NO PLAY
Hawkins- NO PLAY
Duncan- NO PLAY
Cam Guthrie- NO PLAY
Tuohy - OVER 55
Parfitt- NO PLAY
Selwood-NO PLAY

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Aren't you up somthing like 450 units in 8 days? You couldn't come up with something half that profitable even on paper, yet alone actually working

Round 1 ended up + 350u (evidence)

Today another + 75u

Currently on about + 420u, only 10 matches into the season.

The thing is I have won lots in rounds one and two for the past few seasons.

After Rd 2 last year I was up around 600u (thank you Gulden you good thing, he was half of the gainz).

But what I have then done (in 2021 and 2020) is given most of it back to the bookies over the rest of the year.

Last year I went from roughly +600u in early April to +200u by the end of the calendar year.

That's across all sports, mind you. I always end up on AFL and down elsewhere.

I tend to consistently lose on soccer because I don't know shit about it.

With soccer I just punt for fun, it is something to watch at the bar on the big screen, etc.

With AFL, the first round (and to a lesser extent the second round) of the season is where the easy money is imho.

After that, the bookies' models (and algos and whatever tf they use) catch up, the value disappears.

Early season, we can use practice matches and off-season positional changes to find diamonds in the rough.

That only works for the first few matches and then after that the diamonds are way harder to find.

They still come around every now and then when rookies make debuts or guys come back from long injuries or whatever.

But nothing like Rounds 1 and 2. This is bonanza season.

This year I promised myself that if I made big money in rounds 1/2, I would cash it out.

No putting any more back in for the rest of the year. Wait until Rd 1 2023 and do it all over again.

I have already cashed out over 300u and whatever is left in the accounts is my 2022 play money.

So if I have a shocker in rds 3 or 4, don't be surprised if I disappear until next year

I just got a new apartment so the recent wins will help furnish this place real nice.

 

[freo_leo29]

By the way. Curnow paid out 84-1 with PB

wow I must have got on very late as he was $41 for 5

 

[freo_leo29]

Nathan Kreuger

AGS @.175 PB 2+ @ 5, 3+ 15 4+ 51 5+101 SB (or whatever the SB trick works out for)

Tall forward playing against Adelaides horrible key defenders
(Was a defender for Geelong so tread carefully, could spud it up, value though as crows should give up scores)

Brayden Cook

AGS @2.10 PB 2+ @7, 3+ @ 26, 4+ @51 5+ @101 SB (or whatever SB trick works out for)

Tallish forward who is in for Thilthorpe, liked him in his draft year but haven't seen much since, value though as Pies should give up scores

Luke Pedlar

AGS @2.20 PB, 2+ @8 3+ @34, 4+ @51, 5+ @101 SB (or whatever SB trick works out for)

Midfielder who will play forward in Soligos position from last week, will rotate mid and forward, not the most natural forward but kicked 4 goals in the SANFL praccy on the weekend, big wraps on him as midfielder at the crows, not so much as a forward but coming off 4 can't be ignored, riskiest one out of the three imo


Heres hoping for a goalfest, the 4+ and 5+ were all better odds than stated doing the SB trick

 

[freo_leo29]

This is a weird one. Laverde AGS is 1.36 at SB but 3.50 at B365. I personally doubt he plays forward as he hasn't done so for a year. But he's been named forward, so if he does play forward then 3.50 is good value. He's also 21 for 2 and 201 for 3 at B365.

But if he switches back, then probably Francis switches forward as he has trained with the forwards all preseason before getting injured. Francis is 2.25 AGS at B365 and not even listed at SB.

I don't know if I'm game enough to bet on Lav for goals, though. It could be one of those situations where you place the bet, then realise, too late, that he's playing in defence and it's a dud bet. It works in his favour that Baldwin has been dropped and Francis has kind of sucked as a forward but done well as a defender.

I really doubt Laverde plays forward but I've still got on him AGS @6 at Pointsbet

Crazy odds if he actually plays as the third tall, surely Francis lines up forward though

 

[Atavistic]

I really doubt Laverde plays forward but I've still got on him AGS @6 at Pointsbet

Crazy odds if he actually plays as the third tall, surely Francis lines up forward though

$6. Wow.

 

[freo_leo29]

$6. Wow.

EDIT: He is 21 for 2+ and 201 for 3+ on B365 but I can't bet there, really doubt he plays forward but those odds are tempting

 

[mouncey2franklin]

At least one of us is happy. I'm a bit salty with this one, Curnow just started kicking them out his arse while McKay did nothing after HT.

View attachment 1353596

 

[mouncey2franklin]

EDIT: He is 21 for 2+ and 201 for 3+ on B365 but I can't bet there, really doubt he plays forward but those odds are tempting

If I could bet with 365, I would be all over 2+ and 3+ at those odds.

A (potential) third tall forward at 201 for 3+ in Rd 2?

This is the stuff dreams are made of, my friend.

Sadly I can't use 365, so this is one train I cannot board.

 

[Atavistic]

What's up with B365? Do they just limit everyone who wins?

 

[freo_leo29]

What's up with B365? Do they just limit everyone who wins?

Most books do

I'm limited almost everywhere


There are of course some good books like Topsport but you don't get the good odds on exotics

 

[BloodRet]

What's up with B365? Do they just limit everyone who wins?

Yeah I just tried to get on and discovered I’m limited there too

All over that anytime at pointsbet unreal odds Francis was a bust forward last season so if Laverde plays there it’s the kind of value you couldn’t forgive yourself for if didn’t get on

 

[Atavistic]

I suspect Laverde might not even play. Apparently he picked up a knock against Geelong. He's been named forward pocket, but Tex Wanganeen is an emergency and I'm guessing he'll play.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Nathan Kreuger

AGS @.175 PB 2+ @ 5, 3+ 15 4+ 51 5+101 SB (or whatever the SB trick works out for)

Tall forward playing against Adelaides horrible key defenders
(Was a defender for Geelong so tread carefully, could spud it up, value though as crows should give up scores)

I like this tip.

His rookieme profile describes him as very agile and versatile, but not settled in one position.

He didn't have a single shot on goal in the AAMI match before getting injured.

A classic early-season smoky for goals. Could go **** up and kick 0.0. This is gambling.

On for 1u 2+ @ $5 (sb), 1u 3+ @ $15 (sb), 1u 4+ @ $51 (pb)*, 2u 5+ @ $235 (sb trick)

*Can get $60 for 4+ at sb with trick.

---

Also like Jamie Elliott for goals.

His last two matches vs the Crows have been days out.

2021 Rd 13 he kicked 6.0 | 2019 Rd 22 he kicked 5.2 (Didn't play them in 2020)

TAB offering $67 for 6+ whereas other books all seem to have way lower odds for that market.

1u 4+ @ $7, 1u 5+ @ $19, 1u 6+ @67 (all tab)

 

[BloodRet]

Big on Laverde ags then got savers on Francis ags, mihocek 3 Fogarty 3 @35 ts

Francis 2 krueger 2 gollant 2 @201

 

[BloodRet]

Gollant 3, 4 @22, 67 ts

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Jordan de Goey

Kicked 2.3 last week.

Might sound silly but if you look at his record in Rd 2 matches, there's something there:

2021: 4.3 (coming off 0.3) | 2020: 0.2 in infamous 36-36 draw | 2019: 5.1 (coming off 2.2)

Only a small sample size so take it with grain of salt, but may be an 'omen' of sorts.

No offense to Adelaide fans but that back six looks suspect to me.

Can they stop a de Goey train once it gets going?

1u each 3+ @ $4.75, 4+ @ $13, 5+ @ $41, 6+ @ $101 (all tab)

 

[Atavistic]

Jordan de Goey

Kicked 2.3 last week.

Might sound silly but if you look at his record in Rd 2 matches, there's something there:

2021: 4.3 (coming off 0.3) | 2020: 0.2 in infamous 36-36 draw | 2019: 5.1 (coming off 2.2)

Only a small sample size so take it with grain of salt, but may be an 'omen' of sorts.

No offense to Adelaide fans but that back six looks suspect to me.

Can they stop a de Goey train once it gets going?

1u each 3+ @ $4.75, 4+ @ $13, 5+ @ $41, 6+ @ $101 (all tab)

Can you do a train with De Goey's head on it pls? Just makes it feel more special.


Will tail 0.5U for 3-5.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

All three of the new kids in for Adelaide are potential money makers.

Gollant apparently had about 8 or 9 shots on goal in a recent practice match.

1u each 3+ @ $8.50, 4+ @ $26, 5+ @ $128 (all sb)

Pedlar's goalkicking is listed as one of his strengths on his rookieme profile.

1u each 2+ @ $8, 3+ @ $34, 4+ $151, 5+ @ $1801 (all sb)

Cook is described a wayward goalkicker who once kicked 5.5 in the U18s.

1u each 2+ @ $7, 3+ @ $26, 4+ @ $141, 5+ @ $851 (all sb)

I honestly don't see the ball spending much time in the Crows forward line, I think the Pies trounce them.

But the odds are too juicy for natural goalkickers playing first games.

Even with 11u spread across the three, only need one of the kids to have a bit of luck and it should cover.

 

[dontlimitme]

All three of the new kids in for Adelaide are potential money makers.

Gollant apparently had about 8 or 9 shots on goal in a recent practice match.

1u each 3+ @ $8.50, 4+ @ $26, 5+ @ $128 (all sb)

Pedlar's goalkicking is listed as one of his strengths on his rookieme profile.

1u each 2+ @ $8, 3+ @ $34, 4+ $151, 5+ @ $1801 (all sb)

Cook is described a wayward goalkicker who once kicked 5.5 in the U18s.

1u each 2+ @ $7, 3+ @ $26, 4+ @ $141, 5+ @ $851 (all sb)

I honestly don't see the ball spending much time in the Crows forward line, I think the Pies trounce them.

But the odds are too juicy for natural goalkickers playing first games.

Even with 11u spread across the three, only need one of the kids to have a bit of luck and it should cover.