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AFL 2022 AFL Round 23

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So Walters is very much not the player he was a couple years ago and has been lucky to not be dropped a couple times.

But with no tabs or lobb he is pretty much the only natural forward up there this week (logue and Meek will pass off whenever they can ). Has kicked a couple nice ones lately showing the touch that has deserted him for 2 years

AND it’s his 200th , got the family travelling with him.

3,4,5 @5.80,16,67 sb (5 has come in to 51 since last night )

Got on fyfe too who will get chances but could shank them all
 
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ASH for a hard tag on Brayshaw you guys think?? his unders could be very good.. unsure if he got tagged vs dogs and eagles but he's only gone 22 and 21 the past two weeks as it is... also gws do like to rack up the possessions often so could be less ball for Freo,

I like his disposals squared spread at under 767, some good upside there for it to go under around 529 if he gets say 23 (coming off 22 and 21 ) .. he'd have to not get tagged I feel to get to 300 which still only results in 900 and a slight loss if going minumum stakes off 0.50 cents.. Mcveigh will surely send Ash to him I feel
 
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Dan Houston has gone 110, 136 past two weeks in fantasy racking up 20 kicks and 23 kicks (can someone confirm if he is designated kick in or is it just more mid time?) his line sits at 89.5 1.70 pointsbet or a 92 spread, also Zak Butters is 92.5 and is coming off three great weeks of 103,116,114... hes always stressful to watch though an injury risk at every contest!!
 
TopSport price for Fyfe 2+ Goals drifted out a bit from team release last night. Went from $3 to $3.25. Maybe they know something is going on?

Sportsbet have him at $2.02 for 2+ Goals . Fyfes good hands and good aerial mark, means he will be involved in score involvements.

Griffin Logue from the games ive watched him this year, a bit like the Moore experiment with Collingwood (from last year), dont think has worked. He doesnt look a natural forward mover for me, despite plucking the odd mark here or there in the forward line. Taberner, Lobb, Jye Amiss, Frederick (who has been named in centre) , Fyfe, Meek are all ahead of him in the pecking order. One thing about the lineup listed by Freo last night, is it looks a bit short on paper. (Fyfe is the tallest in the forward line at 191 cm) They are going to have throw one of the big talls in there during the game against this Giants defence that 62 and 69 points in the last 2 weeks.

I think there is a bit of value in the Geelong v West Coast game. Darling at 2.19 for 2+ Goals for me screams value without: Kennedy, Rioli, Waterman and should be around the evens mark. You could also look at Ryan or Rioli but I dont think both will get multiple goals. I can see maybe 1 of them going off but not both.

Brisbane v Demons is also a game Im going to be a bit picky

Using a bit of my TopSport bonus:

Ill go for goals:

Darling 2+ , McStay 2+ , Fyfe 2+ @ $26 using the TopSport TopUp token (im happy to take anything even in the mid teens)

and if it lands on an odd number of goals combined
Darling 2+, McStay 3+ @ 19.71
Darling 3+, McStay 2+ @ 14.72
McStay 2+, Fyfe 3+ @ 29.60
McStay 3+, Fyfe 2+ @ 29.25
Darling 2+, Fyfe 3+ @ 20.26
Darling 3+, Fyfe 2+ @ 14.95

And doubles on triple goals
Darling 3+, McStay 3+ @ 41.40
Darling 3+, Fyfe 3+ @ 42.55
McStay 3+, Fyfe 3+ @ 83.25


Darling 3+ , McStay 3+ , Fyfe 3+ @ 382.95 TopSport


Feel like the lineup and position Mark McVeigh has lined up, im willing to give him a 3rd chance. I think there will be goals in this game. A bit of light drizzle may mean the Giants are forced to kick long and to a contest, rather than stat plod for AFL Fantasy points. (I genuinely believe McVeigh has some interest in AFL Fantasy or something)
 
NYRB said:
TopSport price for Fyfe 2+ Goals drifted out a bit from team release last night. Went from $3 to $3.25. Maybe they know something is going on?

Sportsbet have him at $2.02 for 2+ Goals . Fyfes good hands and good aerial mark, means he will be involved in score involvements.

Griffin Logue from the games ive watched him this year, a bit like the Moore experiment with Collingwood (from last year), dont think has worked. He doesnt look a natural forward mover for me, despite plucking the odd mark here or there in the forward line. Taberner, Lobb, Jye Amiss, Frederick (who has been named in centre) , Fyfe, Meek are all ahead of him in the pecking order. One thing about the lineup listed by Freo last night, is it looks a bit short on paper. (Fyfe is the tallest in the forward line at 191 cm) They are going to have throw one of the big talls in there during the game against this Giants defence that 62 and 69 points in the last 2 weeks.

I think there is a bit of value in the Geelong v West Coast game. Darling at 2.19 for 2+ Goals for me screams value without: Kennedy, Rioli, Waterman and should be around the evens mark. You could also look at Ryan or Rioli but I dont think both will get multiple goals. I can see maybe 1 of them going off but not both.

Brisbane v Demons is also a game Im going to be a bit picky

Using a bit of my TopSport bonus:

Ill go for goals:

Darling 2+ , McStay 2+ , Fyfe 2+ @ $26 using the TopSport TopUp token (im happy to take anything even in the mid teens)

and if it lands on an odd number of goals combined
Darling 2+, McStay 3+ @ 19.71
Darling 3+, McStay 2+ @ 14.72
McStay 2+, Fyfe 3+ @ 29.60
McStay 3+, Fyfe 2+ @ 29.25
Darling 2+, Fyfe 3+ @ 20.26
Darling 3+, Fyfe 2+ @ 14.95

And doubles on triple goals
Darling 3+, McStay 3+ @ 41.40
Darling 3+, Fyfe 3+ @ 42.55
McStay 3+, Fyfe 3+ @ 83.25


Darling 3+ , McStay 3+ , Fyfe 3+ @ 382.95 TopSport


Feel like the lineup and position Mark McVeigh has lined up, im willing to give him a 3rd chance. I think there will be goals in this game. A bit of light drizzle may mean the Giants are forced to kick long and to a contest, rather than stat plod for AFL Fantasy points. (I genuinely believe McVeigh has some interest in AFL Fantasy or something)
Click to expand...

TAILING THE TWO 3 LEGGERS FROM BIG FOOTYS RESIDENT STATISTICAL KING
 
2nd combination: Luke Jackson, Willie Rioli and the Crows to be competitive in the Showdown. Jackson has been named at full forward. And even though he doesnt strike me as a big bag goalscorer, he is usually good value for a goal or 2. Did kick 1 in the previous meeting in the two teams. Rioli is a speculative play for me and 3 times out of 14 this season he has covered 2+ Goals. Its a change of the guard for me in SA, and the Crows i think now are the better team, as evidenced in the last Showdown. Crows showed that the occasion wont get to them, in Josh Kennedys last games, and I think the focus for Port here will be on 'Gray goals' rather than team win.

Luke Jackson Anytime Goalscorer, Crows +19.5 handicap, Rioli 2+ Goals @ 20.86 (happy to take anything above $15)

also


Jackson 2+ Goals, Adelaide Win @ 24

Good luck everyone
 

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I have no idea why we are favourites.

That being said, Z. Bailey $3.40 for 2+ on SB.

Also having a go at Hipwood for a few.
2.1 earlier in the year against these guys coming off his knee reco.
Didn't play in the final against them last season.
1.4 against them in the H&A game last season.
And has looked threatening lately.
2.1, 4.3, 1.2, 2.0 in his last 4 games. Accuracy a bit of an issue.
All on SB:
3+ ($7)
4+ ($21)
5+ ($91)





On SM-S906E using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
demon_fanatic said:
you can get Robbie Gray 9 on the pointsbet spread which seems much better value than the fixed odds.. it is a definite low floor/high ceiling bet... surely he at least snags 1 which is only a $30 loss if he kicks 1.0 ... If he starts getting cheapies and kicks 3/4 it'll be a very tidy profit.. im hedging slightly by taking a $5 per point lower stake on Marshall and Georgides
Click to expand...
I've ****ed up big time.
I misunderstood this and thought that if Gray scored more than 9 points, that your stake would be multiplied by 50. Obviously that's not the case & x50 is the maximum it can be multiplied.
This would be fine as I've only chucked on $3.20 so max $30 loss.
Thing is I've given my mate false info and he's gone and chucked $10 in, max $90 loss.
I haven't told him about my realisation.
Is anyone able to tell me what Gray has to score for us both to get our money back?
Poor bastard thinks he's gonna get $500 if Gray kicks 2 goals and it's entirely my fault heck me 😂
 
Nicktheguy said:
Poor bastard thinks he's gonna get $500 if Gray kicks 2 goals and it's entirely my fault * me 😂
Click to expand...

laughing GIF
 
Nicktheguy said:
I've *ed up big time.
I misunderstood this and thought that if Gray scored more than 9 points, that your stake would be multiplied by 50. Obviously that's not the case & x50 is the maximum it can be multiplied.
This would be fine as I've only chucked on $3.20 so max $30 loss.
Thing is I've given my mate false info and he's gone and chucked $10 in, max $90 loss.
I haven't told him about my realisation.
Is anyone able to tell me what Gray has to score for us both to get our money back?
Poor bastard thinks he's gonna get $500 if Gray kicks 2 goals and it's entirely my fault * me 😂
Click to expand...
to break even on this bet. Gray needs to kick 1.3, if he kicks 2.0 you are effectively getting odds of $3 for that to occur, anything more is a real bonus.
I wouldn't sweat it too much, its a great bet because he kicks a goal in this match 95/100 IMO.
 

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Nicktheguy said:
I've *ed up big time.
I misunderstood this and thought that if Gray scored more than 9 points, that your stake would be multiplied by 50. Obviously that's not the case & x50 is the maximum it can be multiplied.
This would be fine as I've only chucked on $3.20 so max $30 loss.
Thing is I've given my mate false info and he's gone and chucked $10 in, max $90 loss.
I haven't told him about my realisation.
Is anyone able to tell me what Gray has to score for us both to get our money back?
Poor bastard thinks he's gonna get $500 if Gray kicks 2 goals and it's entirely my fault * me 😂
Click to expand...
$1 stake, means you win $3 , if Gray scores 12 points Exactly.

a $10 stake, means you win $30 , if Gray scores 12 points Exactly.

a $50 stake, means you win, (12-9)x $50 = $150, if Gray scores 12 points Exactly.

If Gray miraculously scores 60 points, your limited to winnings of $50, using a $1 staking system. (not $51)
 
NYRB said:
$1 stake, means you win $3 , if Gray scores 12 points Exactly.

a $10 stake, means you win $30 , if Gray scores 12 points Exactly.

a $50 stake, means you win, (12-9)x $50 = $150, if Gray scores 12 points Exactly.

If Gray miraculously scores 60 points, your limited to winnings of $50, using a $1 staking system. (not $51)
Click to expand...
Thanks mate, sorry I'm a little slow today.
If he scores 18 points what would my stake be multiplied by?
 
Nicktheguy said:
Thanks mate, sorry I'm a little slow today.
If he scores 18 points what would my stake be multiplied by?
Click to expand...
If he scores 18 pts , you win more


(18-9) x Your stake= Profit

in your mates case (18-9) x 10=$90

If Robbie Gray scores 0 points, your friend loses $90
 
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