AFL 2022 AFL Round 5

[ShaunWDT]

o'meara isnt good enough as a hard midfielder- totally wrong about him.

If the Hawks played O'Meara in midfield, they will get beat more often than not against the middle to top tier teams.

Reckon hes just about cooked to be honest.

 

[NYRB]

Reckon hes just about cooked to be honest.

He looks like an old man walking out there to be honest.

 

[NYRB]

MITCHELLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL for my multiplier!!!!

 

[NYRB]

another goal from Mitchell or O'Meara would be nice here

 

[Selim]

is breust the most selfish player in the game atm?

 

[LukeParkerno1]

is breust the most selfish player in the game atm?

Oi hail the goat there Papley!

 

[Selim]

stick Moore in the goal square please

 

[dontlimitme]

boy oh boy woweee

 

[NYRB]

get back onto the ground ballhog (Mitchell)

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Imagine getting pantsed in the ruck without a ruckman lol

 

[dontlimitme]

geeLOLng

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Course these duds cost me a perfect round

I blame Stengle

 

[NYRB]

AFL Stat Multiplier (Kicks x Handballs x Goals). Spreads courtesy of PointsBet:

View attachment 1376731


Tips using the $1 staking system for todays game:

Moore UNDER 76 (feel that the ball may not be in the Hawks forward line for much of this game)
Breust UNDER 65 ( can see him kicking 1 but not sure about 2+)
Gunston NO PLAY
Lewis NO PLAY
Tom Mitchell OVER 37 (based on Table averages thats a play for me)
Morrison NO PLAY
O'Meara OVER 26 (based on table average thats a play as well)
Koschitzke OVER 22 (a couple of goals should see him clear this line)
Dangerfield UNDER 114 (too high a line for a player named in centre)
Hawkins UNDER 98 (this is a game he may struggle to get 7 handballs + or 3+ Goals)
Cameron UNDER 84 (Frequency suggests he may struggle to get 5+ Handballs )
Duncan UNDER 63 (he spent 79% of the game in the defensive half last week. This line is also a tad too high for my liking)
Smith NO PLAY
Parfitt NO PLAY
Close NO PLAY
Stengle NO PLAY
Tuohy OVER 41 (conditions may suit him to get a goal or may get more opportunities to move forward)
Miers OVER 40 (can snag a couple at least today)
Guthrie OVER 37 (my dark horse to get a goal today. Racked up 43 disposals last year in the corresponding game- an early goal from here , Id be stress free for the rest of the match)
Holmes NO PLAY
Selwood OVER 25 (has a high ceiling if he can get a goal in these conditions)
Stanley NO PLAY

Net Result of the Stat Multiplier Tips:

Moore UNDER 76 (feel that the ball may not be in the Hawks forward line for much of this game) = -$284
Breust UNDER 65 ( can see him kicking 1 but not sure about 2+) =-$25
Gunston NO PLAY
Lewis NO PLAY
Tom Mitchell OVER 37 (based on Table averages thats a play for me) =+$229
Morrison NO PLAY
O'Meara OVER 26 (based on table average thats a play as well)=+$30
Koschitzke OVER 22 (a couple of goals should see him clear this line)=-$22
Dangerfield UNDER 114 (too high a line for a player named in centre)=+$42
Hawkins UNDER 98 (this is a game he may struggle to get 7 handballs + or 3+ Goals)=+$74
Cameron UNDER 84 (Frequency suggests he may struggle to get 5+ Handballs ) =-$15
Duncan UNDER 63 (he spent 79% of the game in the defensive half last week. This line is also a tad too high for my liking)=+$63
Smith NO PLAY
Parfitt NO PLAY
Close NO PLAY
Stengle NO PLAY
Tuohy OVER 41 (conditions may suit him to get a goal or may get more opportunities to move forward)=-$41
Miers OVER 40 (can snag a couple at least today)=-$40
Guthrie OVER 37 (my dark horse to get a goal today. Racked up 43 disposals last year in the corresponding game- an early goal from here , Id be stress free for the rest of the match)=-$37
Holmes NO PLAY
Selwood OVER 25 (has a high ceiling if he can get a goal in these conditions)=-$25
Stanley NO PLAY


Net Result of the tips= -$51


that late goal from Mitchell , turned a potential horrible night into limited damage for the night. And fair play to Dylan Moore, he can play. I dont watch Hawthorn much, especially this year but he has a bit of extra pace in that forward line.

 

[mac23]

Selwood loves the slop
20+ $2.40 SB (2/3)

Most possies Group B
$5 SB

Selwood avg 24
Stewart avg 22
Jiath avg 21
Parfitt avg 21
Impey avg 20
Morrison avg 19
Tuohy avg 18
Scrimshaw avg 16

Decent whack.

Selwood 25+

Lost group B to Stewart by a touch.

Stewart TOG 109 mins
Selwood TOG 88 mins

Pain.

 

[NYRB]

Tonight was also Dylan Moore

13

Dylan Moore

Age

24

Ht

177cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.9

3star

K

5.1

2star

HB

6.7

4star

M

4.4

4star

T

2.9

4star

G

0.3

3star

No current season stats available

D

12.2

3star

K

6.0

3star

HB

6.2

4star

M

5.4

5star

T

2.8

5star

G

0.4

3star

's highest Stat Multiplier score, 360 over the last 2 years, surpassing his previous best in 2021-22 score of 336.

So fair play to him and anyone that got on the OVER with him. I just didnt see it coming but I should have backed my instinct pre-game, saying that small forwards could do damage.

 

[GROTTO]

Whoever bet on Parfitt to score a goal in his 100th, was damn unlucky. If he goaled Cats probably would have won the game with momentum from it.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Last roll of the dice for round 5...

Haw vs Gee

Hawkins 1u each 4+ 5+ ($4.50, $9.50, sb)

Macdonald 0.5u each AGS 2+ 3+ ($2.70, $13, $67, pb)

Moore 0.5u each 2+ 3+ 4+ 5+ ($3.60, $10, $36, $161, sb)

Duncan 0.5u 3+ 4+ ($34, $226, sb)

Smith 0.5u each 3+ 4+ ($64, $326, sb)

Newcombe 1u AGS ($3.50, tab)

Moore 0.5u 1st goalscorer ($17, tab) (can get $18 on sb)

Moore 0.5u First Haw gs ($6.5, tab)

Parfitt 0.2u each 2+ 3+ 4+ ($10, $58, $701)

Multis

0.5u Newcombe 2+, Geel win ($23, tab)

0.4u Bruest Moore Hawkins Cameron 4+ each ($224, sb)

Total outlay: 11u

+14u

Could have been a lot more (another 80u) if Moore had kicked another goal after half time.

Or if Kozchitzke hadn't kicked the first goal (Moore kicked the second).

Still, a better return than the rest of the round.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Round 5 review

Bris vs Coll: -15u

North vs Foot: b/e

Coast vs Syd: -11u

Ade vs Rich -4u

Mel vs GWS -1u

St.K vs Gold Coast -2u

Ess vs Freo -11u

Carl vs Port -10u

Haw vs Gee +14u

Rd 5 net: -30u

---

YTD (evidence)

Round 1: +350u
Round 2: +65u
Round 3: +9u
Round 4: -4u
Round 5: -30u

YTD Net: +390u

There's a very clear trend here and it doesn't look good.

But there were a lot of bets this week that were one goal away from big pay days.

Moore being the most recent example. Kicks 4.1, no goals after half time.

One more goal from him and this round ends +50u. That's punting.

Will reduce outlays next round, might even skip some matches where there are no obvious value train tickets.

 

[Jugada]

YTD Net: +390u

Wouldn't be sending out distress signals just yet.

While I'm sure 99% of these markets are heavily in the bookmakers favour and probably not a profitable to be consistently hitting every single game I'll say the same thing I said last week that these are incredibly volatile markets with low % hit rates so even if you do think you have an edge over the bookies expect to see a graph with long runs of outs and high spikes when they do hit. A couple of downward weekends is nothing and have to trust the process over the course of a whole year if you think there is an edge.

If Rachele misses a shot or two in Round 1 and Moore kicks a second half goal here then the graph would look more stable without the bottom line changing a great deal

 

[TryAnHit]

Wouldn't be sending out distress signals just yet.

While I'm sure 99% of these markets are heavily in the bookmakers favour and probably not a profitable to be consistently hitting every single game I'll say the same thing I said last week that these are incredibly volatile markets with low % hit rates so even if you do think you have an edge over the bookies expect to see a graph with long runs of outs and high spikes when they do hit. A couple of downward weekends is nothing and have to trust the process over the course of a whole year if you think there is an edge.

If Rachele misses a shot or two in Round 1 and Moore kicks a second half goal here then the graph would look more stable without the bottom line changing a great deal

They are 100% super profitable if you select your spots and don't punch every game. Firing every game trains you will lose for sure. But picking 4-5 spots a week is very good