AFL 2022 AFL Round 7

[GROTTO]

hahah I love him

All good, lol.


I still love BloodRet avatar the best, I think he would definitely be Harold Bishop every time a campianger missed a set shot or hasnt scored a goal yet.

 

[Crock Hunter]

Got spot, Do you think someone like Baker could play more up the ground with Cotchin out? He's paying $4.10 for 20+,

Definitely a chance for sure

 

[Its not the coach]

Stuff it why not
Hopefully Baker20+d 4.10 SB plays more around the ball now Cotchins out.
Also hopfully Harmes2+g 4.10 plays all game in the forward 50 arc now Viney back and Pickett out.

Multi @16.81

 

[LicoriceAllsorts]

Agree with everything said re Cazaly.

Last 5 games at Cazaly’s Stadium…
126, 118, 114, 80, 113

Weather looking dubious also.

View attachment 1385216

St Kilda vs Port is typically low scoring too.
Last 5…
135, 132, 117, 208, 136

Totals currently…
Neds 161.5
PB 159.5
TS 157.5
TAB 156.5

Sportsbet the place to go appears to be the one who hasn’t adjusted their opening total yet
162.5

View attachment 1385212

Also taking bites of
U150.5 $2.70
U145.5 $3.45
U140.5 $4.30
U135.5 $5.60

EDIT: soon as I post SB total appears to be coming in.

Along this line...

PA/STK was already the lowest scoring game of the week (by a big margin) as picked by my model (that's without taking into account the conditions/location).

Two high possession teams, I could see it being a very contested back and forth game in the middle:

U161.5/J. Steele 25+ disp/O. Wines 25+ disp/B. Crouch 20+ disp/T. Boak 20+ disp/C. Rozee 20+ disp
@$3.59
1U

Steele 25+ in 5/6 this year and 15 of last 17
Wines 25+ in last 28 full games he's played
Crouch 20+ in 21 of last 22
Boak 20+ in last 38 games
Rozee hit 20 last 2 weeks whilst he's been moved into the centre a bit more

 

[jikost]

Tigers could also throw Collier-Dawkins into the midfield... He's $13 for 25+ if anyone's game.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Tigers could also throw Collier-Dawkins into the midfield... He's $13 for 25+ if anyone's game.

This is the one that I’ve had a crack at. 20,25+.

 

[The_Steadier]

PA/STK was already the lowest scoring game of the week (by a big margin) as picked by my model (that's without taking into account the conditions/location).

Ladbrokes/neds have a market for this fyi- it's paying 6 to be the lowest scoring game (equal 3rd fav).

I think the $15 on offer for my saints to be the lowest scoring team of the round is the value bet though

 

[FadingTheFave]

Lions board reckon Ah Chee is a good chance to play FWD after spending some time there when Lohmann got injured…

1+ $2.90
2+ $15
3+ $101
4+ $750 (all B365)

 

[LicoriceAllsorts]

Thoughts on Libba 25+ @$2.30? (TAB)

had 50+% centre bounce attendance 2 weeks in a row and hit it both weeks (25, 33)

Also paying $6 for 30+

 

[Del125763]

Ladbrokes/neds have a market for this fyi- it's paying 6 to be the lowest scoring game (equal 3rd fav).

I think the $15 on offer for my saints to be the lowest scoring team of the round is the value bet though

im taking a bit of that.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Lions board reckon Ah Chee is a good chance to play FWD after spending some time there when Lohmann got injured…

1+ $2.90
2+ $15
3+ $101
4+ $750 (all B365)

The ultimate train as he will play FWD

 

[Del125763]

How many of those games were in 2020 with shortened quarters though?

Average scores of the games at Cazalys in 2020 (adjusted by 20% to normal playing time) is 127.5 pts per game

Ive chucked those averages of the games in 2020 along with all historical games at Cazalys and the averages from 13 matches dating back to 2011 work out to be 140 pts per game.

There isnt that much data to go from, I have never been to Cairns before either. (although it seems like a lovely part of the world)

 

[Atavistic]

Lions board reckon Ah Chee is a good chance to play FWD after spending some time there when Lohmann got injured…

1+ $2.90
2+ $15
3+ $101
4+ $750 (all B365)

They let me bet 53 cents at 750-1.

 

[FadingTheFave]

They let me bet 53 cents at 750-1.

Same. I think they were badly burnt by Ziebell as since then the traders haven’t been as generous

 

[Crock Hunter]

SHAI BOLTON

15

Shai Bolton

Age

27

Ht

176cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.3

3star

K

6.9

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

2.8

3star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.4

4star

D

12.7

3star

K

9.2

4star

HB

3.5

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.7

4star

CL

1.8

4star

D

9.2

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

4.6

4star

M

2.0

3star

T

2.6

4star

CL

0.0

1star

**** UP - $10 for 25+ at Bet365! GO

 

[Its not the coach]

They let me bet 53 cents at 750-1.

I got $10 on for 3 @100, then it was 82c @750 for 4, Then I put on $1 at a time for 3 @60 til my $20 was gone haha

 

[Del125763]

I cant see Ah Chee listed on the goalscorer markets at SB, am I missing something or have Sportsbet taken him off their markets?

 

[Atavistic]

I cant see Ah Chee listed on the goalscorer markets at SB, am I missing something or have Sportsbet taken him off their markets?

They don't seem to throw many defenders in the goal markets. I don't even rate Ah Chee and will be shocked if he kicks three or four.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

They don't seem to throw many defenders in the goal markets. I don't even rate Ah Chee and will be shocked if he kicks three or four.

I’d be looking at the smalls. We have a decent matchup for Daniher…but Lloyd and Cunningham are in hopeless form

 

[Its not the coach]

They don't seem to throw many defenders in the goal markets. I don't even rate Ah Chee and will be shocked if he kicks three or four.

I'd be shocked if he got 1, Brisbane have plenty of forwards capable of getting goals, I was surprised to see his heat map glowing in the forward half last week though, And he did have some score involvements.

 

[jikost]

They don't seem to throw many defenders in the goal markets.

You're right they don't, and in hindsight I'm not sure why Ziebell was even listed a few weeks ago??? Bet they're regretting that one.

Keep an eye on Greg Clark for disposals when the teams are announced tomorrow. Mature-aged draftee who will debut for the Eagles Friday night and has been posting big numbers in the WAFL

 

[GROTTO]

They don't seem to throw many defenders in the goal markets. I don't even rate Ah Chee and will be shocked if he kicks three or four.

Fun Facts with Grotto.

AhChee has played 90 matches and kicked 36 goals.

Kicked a goal at least 24 times.

Kicked 2 goals at least 8 times.

Kicked 3 goals once.

Kicked 5 goals once.

 

[freo_leo29]

You're right they don't, and in hindsight I'm not sure why Ziebell was even listed a few weeks ago??? Bet they're regretting that one.

Keep an eye on Greg Clark for disposals when the teams are announced tomorrow. Mature-aged draftee who will debut for the Eagles Friday night and has been posting big numbers in the WAFL

Hasn't been getting massive numbers this year, was injured and since coming back has 18 and 25

averaged 27 in the wafl last year


He is more of a fantasy/DT pick, tackles quite a bit

 

[mouncey2franklin]

SHAI BOLTON **** UP - $10 for 25+ at Bet365! GO

Something he has hit once in his last 20 matches?

Six times in his 73-match career?

And not even once this year?

What do you think would be fair (non '**** up') odds for this market?

 

[jikost]

Hasn't been getting massive numbers this year, was injured and since coming back has 18 and 25

averaged 27 in the wafl last year


He is more of a fantasy/DT pick, tackles quite a bit

Alright, Clark fantasy overs it is!