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AFL 2022 AFL Round 7
- Thread starter balmainforever
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Crock Hunter
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I posted my rationale earlier which everyone seemed to agree with at odds of $4.8? Why wouldn’t I be pumping up a weird mix up where his odds doubled to $10 and have now been corrected back to where they were? 6 times in his career, yeah - with a midfield consisting of Martin and Cotchin. What hope would we have at punting if we just used career averages.
2.5u - Bolton 20+ disposals - $2.25 - 365
Hate betting on this guy, but with Cotchin out and Dusty not returning it becomes a must bet. Has actually averaged the most CBAs per game at Richmond over the last three weeks. Cotchin out strengthens this spot for him.
Hate betting on this guy, but with Cotchin out and Dusty not returning it becomes a must bet. Has actually averaged the most CBAs per game at Richmond over the last three weeks. Cotchin out strengthens this spot for him.
- Jun 16, 2018
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I get where you're coming from, I'm just asking you, what do you think would be fair (non '**** up') odds for this market?
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Crock Hunter
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Around $3.5-$4 I would bet down to
The Brownlow Guru
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Even if Ah Chee plays forward he's what the 7th option? Behind Daniher, Bailey, McCarthy, McStay, Cameron and Rayner. Probably 8th option if you want to throw in Darcy Fort as well.
Lohmann saw 1 shot on goal in two weeks. Think we can find better looks than this.
Lohmann saw 1 shot on goal in two weeks. Think we can find better looks than this.
Its not the coach
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That's a start, Good to know he can kick a goal, Hopefully there's some sort of plan with him and his heat map glows in the forward 50 again this week and he gets the 2nd best goal haul of his career.
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Bit of GameStop about this forum now?
Have a fairly decent following on here now and any overpriced markets are smashed and odds get crunched within the minute. The posts here VERY easily have enough firepower to influence markets materially.
Have a fairly decent following on here now and any overpriced markets are smashed and odds get crunched within the minute. The posts here VERY easily have enough firepower to influence markets materially.
Its not the coach
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Ya never know even if he plays down back he might get 3 50 metre penalties from the back flank which would put him in the goal square in Sydney. Lol
In all honesty your right, I couldn't see the need for them using him forward unless it was to fill a gap through injury mid game.
On threads like this ya gotta be able to seperate the good from the shit. There's been some good tips posted today but I doubt that's one of them
D
Del125763
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They will early in the week.... on game day they wont move as much
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You can play 7/8th option, be in the right place at the right time and end up with a bag as you got less focus on you. If you’re getting 100 and 750 odds for 3, 4 you gotta take it. Ah Chee has played forward heaps in his career and with the heat maps of him playing forward once Lohmann went off, this definitely isn’t a shit tip.
andwhenitcomes
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Money's moving the markets, not postsBookies have their eyes on this thread like:
D
Del125763
Guest
Prop bets are mainly based on money and opinion.
If a particular post generates liquidity, the odds settors will move the market accordingly.
But what you said is right, the posts don't move the market.
- Jun 16, 2018
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I would have thought so too but there was some fella in the thread a couple weeks ago telling us we were dreaming.
There is no way a forum like this could be influencing the markets, he said.
I wonder where he is these days.
Its not the coach
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They post on this threadBookies have their eyes on this thread like:
The bookies didnt adjust the 2+ goals etc for the higher totals to start the year. They were prices for 15x totals as per late last year... reason so many here cleaned up...
odds looked much more correct this week.... wont be betting as many 2+ etc now they have caught up... no point giving them action at poor odds.
Stringer 2+ 1.68 3+ 3.90 4+ 9.25 5+ 23.0 (power fwd who seemed to be fwd more and less mid time given hes coming back from injury vs dogs who are leaking)
Curtis (followed the train here)
Zurharr 2+ 2.30 3+ 5.4 4+ 14.0 5+ 46 (looked like finding his form of last year... vs blues at dome)
Darling 2+ 1.82 3+ 3.7 4+ 8.75 5+23 (vs a weak richmond at home... should have had 3 vs port... was the deep fwd alot... another game under his belt)
Wingard 2+ 3.5 3+ 10.0 4+ 34.0 5+101 (played out the square alot on the weekend.. doesnt get midfield time anymore... should have had 3 vs swans...avg 2.x goals a game when he was a pure fwd at port)
odds looked much more correct this week.... wont be betting as many 2+ etc now they have caught up... no point giving them action at poor odds.
Stringer 2+ 1.68 3+ 3.90 4+ 9.25 5+ 23.0 (power fwd who seemed to be fwd more and less mid time given hes coming back from injury vs dogs who are leaking)
Curtis (followed the train here)
Zurharr 2+ 2.30 3+ 5.4 4+ 14.0 5+ 46 (looked like finding his form of last year... vs blues at dome)
Darling 2+ 1.82 3+ 3.7 4+ 8.75 5+23 (vs a weak richmond at home... should have had 3 vs port... was the deep fwd alot... another game under his belt)
Wingard 2+ 3.5 3+ 10.0 4+ 34.0 5+101 (played out the square alot on the weekend.. doesnt get midfield time anymore... should have had 3 vs swans...avg 2.x goals a game when he was a pure fwd at port)
D
Del125763
Guest
There might be some value in opposing Player Points and/or Goals if that is your guys thing.
TopSport offer 'Exact Goal ' markets. eg there might be some value on the leading forwards to have small tallies eg 0 goals or 1 goals this week
PointsBet offer the ability to back UNDERS in the Player Points. I have played these markets in the past.
TopSport offer 'Exact Goal ' markets. eg there might be some value on the leading forwards to have small tallies eg 0 goals or 1 goals this week
PointsBet offer the ability to back UNDERS in the Player Points. I have played these markets in the past.
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These markets move even quicker as none of them have a “no” or “unders” option early in the week which leaves the bookies open to massive exposure and doesn’t give them much of an option to balance their own book (partially their fault for not offering the other side of the market)
Sydney Brisbane 161.5 (pbet, topsport/b365) looks a shade low.. Saturdays rain very unlikely to leak into late sunday for the twilight kickoff... conditions should be near perfect... its up to 164.5 tab, 163.5 neds.... thoughts??? Yes Brisbane and Sydney will heavily gameplan and they won't both probably be able to just go end to end all game through the centre like they try to do vs poor sides but still plenty of attacking weapons and skill to see this sail over... I Feel a lot would have to go wrong for this bet not to have a great chance of clearing eg real poor kicking at goal or a total high pressure contest in the vein of Dogs/Adelaide.. even that game still got to 125 in probably the worst game skill/attacking wise all season with adelaide scoring 8.15...I feel 161.5 is just too low with the floor of this bet being 145-150 if everything went wrong but the Ceiling being 190 to 200
didnt he win the wafl version of norm smith too??solid.... ill def look for disposal markets as Richmond don't go huge on disposals either
which sites post fantasy lines on random players mainly???
Crownbet back in the day, rip to them
LOL neds have swans vs bris fav at 4.50 for lowest scoring match.. huh???? total is set at 163.5... ill def take some stk vs port at 6.00 given the weather, also do Neds still do the team vs team totals that you guys talked about early season eg Hawthorn to outscore Port or something like that?? I can't find it only found the highest/lowest scoring features
