Strategy 2022 Planning Thread

[Seymour Skinner]

 

[Soggy2112]

Not at 600k. I'd rather pick one of the safer SP mids if I'm spending 600+.

Has been susceptible to a tag so I’m sure he’ll have an off game that will bump his price down if he does prove to be an Uber premium.

 

[A Bit Dusty]

Never had him since his rookie year. Averaged what 107 this year, junks it up beautifully Zerrett style when I watch Freo. Still improving.

Not for you?

He would be an awkward price about $580k and he butchers the ball a fair bit. Jelly will be the same price but I wouldn't get either at the start.

My starting mids will be Macrae,Steel,Oliver,Miller,Neale and maybe Cogs M6

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

Has been susceptible to a tag so I’m sure he’ll have an off game that will bump his price down if he does prove to be an Uber premium.

Yeah this is a good point, same reason I'll probably not start Walsh or Oliver. They have a stinker or two in them so you can get them cheaper.

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

He would be an awkward price about $580k and he butchers the ball a fair bit. Jelly will be the same price but I wouldn't get either at the start.

My starting mids will be Macrae,Steel,Oliver,Miller,Neale and maybe Cogs M6

Is this going to be like Fiorini where you talk them down then start him?

 

[A Bit Dusty]

Is this going to be like Fiorini where you talk them down then start him?

 

[gutsroy]

I don't subscribe to the theory that midpricers are either keepers or they are cash cows. I think it's too black and white in a game that is grey.

My thinking regarding midpricers is a mixed approach, I call it "Improvers".

It's all about thresholds for improvement, it's hard to explain but I'll try my best.

Say you've got a $200k second year player, no concerns over JS. Fin Macrae for example.


Let's say he takes that 40 avg to 60+
If a player does that, then it's likely they'll make $100-150k cash yeah.
But, 60 avg is the same as what you'd expect from a decent enough rookie, so why did you spend the extra cash to get the same results?
So then, a 200k player would have to average 70+ to be worth it yeah? Makes more cash and provides greater points.

But it's different at all starting prices.
Let's say Luke Jackson. Priced at a 70 average so around $400k give or take a bit.
For him, a jump of 20 puts him at a 90 average, that's good for the forward line and makes him a forward premo, but at that starting price he's not gonna make $150k and get to $550k.

I think just look at their points scored and not cash made, because you could be losing points elsewhere.

Fwiw:
Return on investment-wise, you're better off placing the bulk of your cash into fewer players.
That is very reliant on the premo giving you the expected output (and having enough viable rookies to fill the remaining spots). And if they're popular (Macrae, e.g.), if they do go low once or twice, you're failing in the pack, because most of the serious coaches - though not me, because I am an idiot - have them.
Another reason is that there will always a couple who cop a head knock in Q1 and shed 80k so that they end up being prime M7/M8 types etc., there's no huge advantage in trying to lock one in in the starting squad.
The midpricers give you more bang for your buck early on but unless they can maintain a pretty close to premo otput level (you'd want to be within 10 pts of M6 / D4 / F4 territory), they ultimately end up consuming a trade which lowers their actual output / return on your starting investment.
And the success rate on midpricers is actually pretty low %-wise. Will try and dig it out, looked at it once, but think it was 15% sort of country.
If you get that one bloke who just knocks it out of the park (kudos to the Cumming owners here), it really helps give you a leg-up, but you've got to have a better eye than I do to pull it off.
Grabbing Taranto this year was an example of how it often doesn't really work, he was just too far off the topliners and there were plenty of players (Spray, Jelly, etc.) who dropped down to 500k or below and who shit all over his SC ceiling, so locking in on him was ultimately bad and one to learn from (for me).

 

[Ingy]

Sam Walsh

18

Sam Walsh

Age

25

Ht

184cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

25.1

5star

K

13.5

5star

HB

11.6

5star

M

5.1

5star

T

3.2

5star

CL

3.4

5star

No current season stats available

D

26.2

5star

K

15.4

5star

HB

10.8

5star

M

6.0

5star

T

3.2

5star

CL

4.8

5star

finished 9th in SC in his third year.

If you don't start him next year you are a nuffie, IMHO.

 

[THECHIEFTON]

Sam Walsh finished 9th in SC in his third year.

If you don't start him next year you are a nuffie, IMHO.

He also showed he struggled with a tag. He's not going to get less tags next year.

 

[A Bit Dusty]

Sam Walsh finished 9th in SC in his third year.

If you don't start him next year you are a nuffie, IMHO.

These 4 Kents almost cost me $1500 in a cash league (I won by 5) they have been added to the never again list

 

[Ingy]

He also showed he struggled with a tag. He's not going to get less tags next year.

He is too good a runner to be susceptible to a tag once he's had it done to him a few times. And so many teams don't bother. Please yourselves, won't shock me at all if he's No. 1 at the end of next year

 

[Sydney Kicker]

Fwiw:
Return on investment-wise, you're better off placing the bulk of your cash into fewer players.
That is very reliant on the premo giving you the expected output (and having enough viable rookies to fill the remaining spots). And if they're popular (Macrae, e.g.), if they do go low once or twice, you're failing in the pack, because most of the serious coaches - though not me, because I am an idiot - have them.
Another reason is that there will always a couple who cop a head knock in Q1 and shed 80k so that they end up being prime M7/M8 types etc., there's no huge advantage in trying to lock one in in the starting squad.
The midpricers give you more bang for your buck early on but unless they can maintain a pretty close to premo otput level (you'd want to be within 10 pts of M6 / D4 / F4 territory), they ultimately end up consuming a trade which lowers their actual output / return on your starting investment.
And the success rate on midpricers is actually pretty low %-wise. Will try and dig it out, looked at it once, but think it was 15% sort of country.
If you get that one bloke who just knocks it out of the park (kudos to the Cumming owners here), it really helps give you a leg-up, but you've got to have a better eye than I do to pull it off.
Grabbing Taranto this year was an example of how it often doesn't really work, he was just too far off the topliners and there were plenty of players (Spray, Jelly, etc.) who dropped down to 500k or below and who sh*t all over his SC ceiling, so locking in on him was ultimately bad and one to learn from (for me).

Agree in general with Taranto. Was a f$%#ing anchor on my team all year.

The only trouble with this theory is the midpricer that you miss and most have that knocks it out of the park.

I know he had almost 100% ownership across the top teams late in the year, but I wonder how many of those that ultimately finished in the top 100 didn't start Ziebell or didn't trade him in before his first price rise. Not many I suspect. Owning him would have been a huge head start in the first few rounds.

 

[gutsroy]

Agree in general with Taranto. Was a f$%#ing anchor on my team all year.

The only trouble with this theory is the midpricer that you miss and most have that knocks it out of the park.

I know he had almost 100% ownership across the top teams late in the year, but I wonder how many of those that ultimately finished in the top 100 didn't start Ziebell or didn't trade him in before his first price rise. Not many I suspect. Owning him would have been a huge head start in the first few rounds.

Yeah, absolutely, there were similar patterns with Impey, off the top of my head.
But they were getting down to almost top-tier rookie starting prices, so they're in a slightly different category again, depending on how you break it down, in terms of the level of investment and how 'forgiving' the picks were(?)

 

[Soggy2112]

He is too good a runner to be susceptible to a tag once he's had it done to him a few times. And so many teams don't bother. Please yourselves, won't shock me at all if he's No. 1 at the end of next year

He had 7 sub 100 scores, 5 coming in the last 13 games, the highest of which was a 90.

Compared to:

Macrae: 1 (98)
Oliver: 5 (including a 94, 93 and a 98)
Steele: 3 (91, 99, 93)
Touk: 3 (including a 96, and nine after round 5)
Lyons: 3 (including a 98)
Titch: 5 (none from round 13 onwards)

I love Walsh but his consistency isn’t quite there yet compared to some others (in particular Lyons and Mitchell whose prices will be similar). I certainly think he’ll be top 8 or thereabouts but would rather take others to start and wait for his price to drop after a 70-80 score.

 

[THECHIEFTON]

He is too good a runner to be susceptible to a tag once he's had it done to him a few times. And so many teams don't bother. Please yourselves, won't shock me at all if he's No. 1 at the end of next year

Possibly. I'll probably start him because I think a lot of people will aswell.

You could start Macrae, Bont, Oliver, Touk and Neale for example instead.

 

[Blackhawk42]

Keen to see what price Scrimshaw starts at for a POD selection. Averaged 83 this season but 1 game he started as sub coming off a pre-season injury and scored 17, then had an injury affected 28. Real average was 91. 5 tons and 5 90's.

He'll be 23 and entering his prime. Averaged 74 last season, so jumped up quite significantly this year.

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

Keen to see what price Scrimshaw starts at for a POD selection. Averaged 83 this season but 1 game he started as sub coming off a pre-season injury and scored 17, then had an injury affected 28. Real average was 91. 5 tons and 5 90's.

He'll be 23 and entering his prime. Averaged 74 last season, so jumped up quite significantly this year.

On this years pricing he will be $445k.

The Hawks backline will be interesting, Sicily back, Day? Impey? DGB getting more game time. Is Scrimshaw even best 22? And if so what will his role be.

 

[Blackhawk42]

On this years pricing he will be $445k.

The Hawks backline will be interesting, Sicily back, Day? Impey? DGB getting more game time. Is Scrimshaw even best 22? And if so what will his role be.

100% is best 22. Will certainly be waiting to see where Sicily ends up playing next season, but I do have a suspicion that we'll trade Gunston and Sicily will move forward and take his role. One of Day, Jiath or Impey could push up to a wing.

His intercept marking and precision kicking is so valuable.

B. Hardwick Hartigan Forst
HB. Scrimshaw DGB Jiath
C. Day
HF. Sicily


IC: Impey

We may see something like that.

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

He had 7 sub 100 scores, 5 coming in the last 13 games, the highest of which was a 90.

Compared to:

Macrae: 1 (98)
Oliver: 5 (including a 94, 93 and a 98)
Steele: 3 (91, 99, 93)
Touk: 3 (including a 96, and nine after round 5)
Lyons: 3 (including a 98)
Titch: 5 (none from round 13 onwards)

I love Walsh but his consistency isn’t quite there yet compared to some others (in particular Lyons and Mitchell whose prices will be similar). I certainly think he’ll be top 8 or thereabouts but would rather take others to start and wait for his price to drop after a 70-80 score.

Like this, consistency is so important as it makes it hard for coaches who don't have a player to get them. I'll be aiming for 4 of those 6 players to start, and trying to trade the rest in.

There should be some nice variation in teams at the start. Those 6, Walsh Bont, Merrett, Petracca, Jelly. All perfectly valid choices. Laird averaged 117 so he's in the conversation too.

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

100% is best 22. Will certainly be waiting to see where Sicily ends up playing next season, but I do have a suspicion that we'll trade Gunston and Sicily will move forward and take his role. One of Day, Jiath or Impey could push up to a wing.

His intercept marking and precision kicking is so valuable.

B. Hardwick Hartigan Forst
HB. Scrimshaw DGB Jiath
C. Day
HF. Sicily


IC: Impey

We may see something like that.

Surely Sicily is better than Hartigan? Sicily has been tried and failed enough as a forward now you'd think.

 

[Blackhawk42]

Surely Sicily is better than Hartigan? Sicily has been tried and failed enough as a forward now you'd think.

Hartigan was very solid this year on the big forwards. Not expecting Sicily to start playing on Hawkins, Dixon, Kennedy, Walker etc.

Frost can from time to time but he's better playing on smalls.

Siss kicked 30 goals as a forward in 2016. It's more a myth that he can't play forward due to the impact it has on his Supercoach scoring (has kicked 58 in his career from 93 games). In the real world there is no reason why he couldn't become a 30+ goal a year forward again.

This is also only my own personal view. Not saying it's definitely happening.

 

[stevebbb]

Titch close to a lock for me. Must be feeling good about his body, started kicking goals and racking em up like crazy. Will go 125 next season imo

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

Titch close to a lock for me. Must be feeling good about his body, started kicking goals and racking em up like crazy. Will go 125 next season imo

Didn't he sack his GF mid-season? Will need to keep an eye on the socials in PS to make sure she doesn't re-appear and slow him down again.

 

[Cactus_]

Yeah this is a good point, same reason I'll probably not start Walsh or Oliver. They have a stinker or two in them so you can get them cheaper.

Is Oli really tag susceptible?

Edit: would have thought his contested ball makes him one of the less susceptible primos.

 

[Cactus_]

Titch close to a lock for me. Must be feeling good about his body, started kicking goals and racking em up like crazy. Will go 125 next season imo

Agree. As long as he has an uninterrupted preseason you’d think he was a close to must start next year.

 

[Cactus_]

Surely Sicily is better than Hartigan? Sicily has been tried and failed enough as a forward now you'd think.

Yes. But there’s going to be a new coach. So there is some built in role uncertainty. That needs to be priced in.