balmainforever
Dibs
- Sep 4, 2003
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AFL 2023 - AFL Round 1
- Thread starter balmainforever
- Start date
- Tagged users None
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kicked 2.1 in 69% game time against the suns.
and 3 in the intraclub
im on him for 2/3 for $5.50/$19 on b365
$100/1 if u think he can kick 4
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Are we giving Phillipou a chance of snagging a few on debut?
2+ 4.25 PB
3+ 13 PB
4+ 41 PB and SB
2+ 4.25 PB
3+ 13 PB
4+ 41 PB and SB
Lettsss gooooo! Good betting games today.
GWS vs Adelaide
2.5u - Both teams to score 74+ points - $1.89 - 365 (Posted Early)
2.5u - Laird under 32.5 disposals - $1.80 - Ladbrokes
Has been stated during the week by Kingsley that they are going to put extra work into Liard today. This may very well come in the form of a tag or a team effort. Massive total, so happy to take the under given the situation.
2.5u - Josh Kelly over 27.5 disposals - $1.87 - Ladbrokes
Looks to be playing as an inside mid this year. When given that opportunity he comfortably posts strong numbers. Had 76% CBAs in the practice match for 36 disposals. When given more than 60% CBAs in 2022 he went 5/6 and 30+ in 4/6. Should be licking his lips against a young Crows midfield that gave up plenty last year.
Hawthorn vs Essendon
3u - Andrew McGrath 20+ disposals - $1.85 - TAB
Former number 1 pick so loads of talent. Has shown the ability to go 20+ with 11/18 in 2022 and 12/14 in 2021. Has moved into a half back role this year but that should suit him as the Essendon backline tend to play with it amongst themselves. Had 25 in the pre season hit out.
1.5u - Mackenzie 20+ disposals - $2.50 - TAB
Should get plenty of opportunity in this Hawthorn midfield. In preseason he had the second most CBAs behind Newcombe and ended with 24 disposals. Averaged over 24 disposals per game in the NAB League and Under 18 State Championships.
2u - Perkins 15+ disposals - $2.15 - SB/Ladbrokes/TopSport
0.5u - Perkins 20+ disposals - $7.50 - Pointsbet/Betr
Essendon look intent on building Perkins into a midfielder. In the preseason he went to 47% of CBAs for 17 disposals. Had a similar stint of a 4 game stretch that he saw an increase in midfield minutes last year that resulted in 3/4 games of 15+. The Hawks gave up the third most disposals in 2022 and with a weak midfield their should be plenty of opportunity.
2u - Amon under 24.5 disposals - $1.87 - 365
This one just feels a bit too high given the circumstances of his new side. Last year the Power had an average of 30 extra disposals per game and a far stronger midfield. I view the Hawks midfield as the weakest in the league which doesn't help Amon who will be playing on the outside and relying on inside grunt. He managed 23 in preseason where disposals are usually easier to come by, should be tough in the real thing.
2.5u - Sicily 8+ marks - $1.95 - TAB
0.5u - Sicily 10+ marks - $3.25 - TAB
Averaged 8.64 marks per game last year and 10 marks in preseason. Is ultra effective by foot and now that he is the skipper he'll demand the footy in his hand. Last year the Bombers gave up the second most marks in the comp and on a nice dry day today and a bombers side without Wright he'll look to take advantage of this.
St Kilda vs Fremantle
2.5u - Fremantle -2.5 - $1.90 - BlueBet (Posted Early)
3u - St Kilda under 73.5 points - $1.83 - Ladbrokes (Posted Early)
2.5u - Brayshaw 30+ disposals = NO (under 29.5) - $1.87 - 365
In disposal specials at the bottom of the page. Ross Lyon likes to use a tagger as seen in preseason and Brayshaw is that obvious tag choice. Expecting him to cop one today and find it difficult to do his thing. Went under this in 14/24 last year.
3u - Marshall 100+ fantasy points - $1.60 - Pointsbet
1.5u - Marshall 110+ fantasy points - $2.10 - Pointsbet
0.5u - Marshall 120+ fantasy points - $3.10 - Pointsbet
Marshall averaged 107 in the four games Ryder missed to finish 2021 and 114 when attending 60% or more CBAs in 2022. With Ryder retiring and Ratten, the coach who preferred to use Marshall as a backup ruck, no longer there, he should have a strong showing. If we look more specifically at those games he went 100+ in 10/13, 110+ in 7/13. Many of these coming from lower CBA% than the 90+% I expect to see him get today.
GWS vs Adelaide
2.5u - Both teams to score 74+ points - $1.89 - 365 (Posted Early)
2.5u - Laird under 32.5 disposals - $1.80 - Ladbrokes
Has been stated during the week by Kingsley that they are going to put extra work into Liard today. This may very well come in the form of a tag or a team effort. Massive total, so happy to take the under given the situation.
2.5u - Josh Kelly over 27.5 disposals - $1.87 - Ladbrokes
Looks to be playing as an inside mid this year. When given that opportunity he comfortably posts strong numbers. Had 76% CBAs in the practice match for 36 disposals. When given more than 60% CBAs in 2022 he went 5/6 and 30+ in 4/6. Should be licking his lips against a young Crows midfield that gave up plenty last year.
Hawthorn vs Essendon
3u - Andrew McGrath 20+ disposals - $1.85 - TAB
Former number 1 pick so loads of talent. Has shown the ability to go 20+ with 11/18 in 2022 and 12/14 in 2021. Has moved into a half back role this year but that should suit him as the Essendon backline tend to play with it amongst themselves. Had 25 in the pre season hit out.
1.5u - Mackenzie 20+ disposals - $2.50 - TAB
Should get plenty of opportunity in this Hawthorn midfield. In preseason he had the second most CBAs behind Newcombe and ended with 24 disposals. Averaged over 24 disposals per game in the NAB League and Under 18 State Championships.
2u - Perkins 15+ disposals - $2.15 - SB/Ladbrokes/TopSport
0.5u - Perkins 20+ disposals - $7.50 - Pointsbet/Betr
Essendon look intent on building Perkins into a midfielder. In the preseason he went to 47% of CBAs for 17 disposals. Had a similar stint of a 4 game stretch that he saw an increase in midfield minutes last year that resulted in 3/4 games of 15+. The Hawks gave up the third most disposals in 2022 and with a weak midfield their should be plenty of opportunity.
2u - Amon under 24.5 disposals - $1.87 - 365
This one just feels a bit too high given the circumstances of his new side. Last year the Power had an average of 30 extra disposals per game and a far stronger midfield. I view the Hawks midfield as the weakest in the league which doesn't help Amon who will be playing on the outside and relying on inside grunt. He managed 23 in preseason where disposals are usually easier to come by, should be tough in the real thing.
2.5u - Sicily 8+ marks - $1.95 - TAB
0.5u - Sicily 10+ marks - $3.25 - TAB
Averaged 8.64 marks per game last year and 10 marks in preseason. Is ultra effective by foot and now that he is the skipper he'll demand the footy in his hand. Last year the Bombers gave up the second most marks in the comp and on a nice dry day today and a bombers side without Wright he'll look to take advantage of this.
St Kilda vs Fremantle
2.5u - Fremantle -2.5 - $1.90 - BlueBet (Posted Early)
3u - St Kilda under 73.5 points - $1.83 - Ladbrokes (Posted Early)
2.5u - Brayshaw 30+ disposals = NO (under 29.5) - $1.87 - 365
In disposal specials at the bottom of the page. Ross Lyon likes to use a tagger as seen in preseason and Brayshaw is that obvious tag choice. Expecting him to cop one today and find it difficult to do his thing. Went under this in 14/24 last year.
3u - Marshall 100+ fantasy points - $1.60 - Pointsbet
1.5u - Marshall 110+ fantasy points - $2.10 - Pointsbet
0.5u - Marshall 120+ fantasy points - $3.10 - Pointsbet
Marshall averaged 107 in the four games Ryder missed to finish 2021 and 114 when attending 60% or more CBAs in 2022. With Ryder retiring and Ratten, the coach who preferred to use Marshall as a backup ruck, no longer there, he should have a strong showing. If we look more specifically at those games he went 100+ in 10/13, 110+ in 7/13. Many of these coming from lower CBA% than the 90+% I expect to see him get today.
D
Del125763
Guest
AFL Sunday Round 1 Multi
Adelaide to beat Greater Western Sydney
Jacob Koschitzke 2+ Goals v Essendon
Saints to beat Freo
Odds: $12.89
Totals Multi
GWS V Adelaide Over 176.5 pts
St.Kilda v Freo Over 168.5 pts
Hawthorn v Essendon Over 178.5 pts
Odds: $13.45
AFL Lotto for today
Rankine 3+ Goals
Jacob Koschitzke 3+ Goals
@ $30
Also riding this multi involving Crows today:
Adelaide to beat Greater Western Sydney
Jacob Koschitzke 2+ Goals v Essendon
Saints to beat Freo
Odds: $12.89
Totals Multi
GWS V Adelaide Over 176.5 pts
St.Kilda v Freo Over 168.5 pts
Hawthorn v Essendon Over 178.5 pts
Odds: $13.45
AFL Lotto for today
Rankine 3+ Goals
Jacob Koschitzke 3+ Goals
@ $30
Also riding this multi involving Crows today:
i also dont mind this one
Michael Frederick
kicked 3.1 last time he played saints. He has had a bit of an injury concern and missed the praccy games, think he had a strained quad?
anyway i dont rate saints at all, so I better have a go at this
2+ $4
3+ $11
@b365
Michael Frederick
kicked 3.1 last time he played saints. He has had a bit of an injury concern and missed the praccy games, think he had a strained quad?
anyway i dont rate saints at all, so I better have a go at this
2+ $4
3+ $11
@b365
He's 18 for 3
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
Toby Train 3,4,5+
Callaghan 1,2+
Peatling 1,2,3+
Pedlar 1,2,3+
Dawson 1,2+
Callaghan 1,2+
Peatling 1,2,3+
Pedlar 1,2,3+
Dawson 1,2+
Its not the coach
Cancelled
- Apr 16, 2019
- 1,289
- 890
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
- Banned
- #869
Fogarty 2+
Rankine 2+
Rachelle ATG
Hinge 20+ @11.75 SB
Rankine 2+
Rachelle ATG
Hinge 20+ @11.75 SB
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the gws website says hes a key defender for them..
Long Shot Louie
Senior List
- Aug 23, 2022
- 283
- 1,035
- AFL Club
- Richmond
DOUGAL DAY
I can't remember who I bet on or with which bookie.
2.5u - Rankine 10+ disposals & AGS - $1.80 - 365
Did this in 12/18 games last year and in 7/8 post-bye. Had 12 and 1.0 in pre season and will get a nice blend of midfield and forward throughout the year. Should be a high scoring game. Will be looking to average closer to 15 and 2.0 by seasons end so pretty happy with this spot.
Did this in 12/18 games last year and in 7/8 post-bye. Had 12 and 1.0 in pre season and will get a nice blend of midfield and forward throughout the year. Should be a high scoring game. Will be looking to average closer to 15 and 2.0 by seasons end so pretty happy with this spot.
fpm84
Premium Gold
Toby 2+
Fog 2+
Riccardi 2+
Rankine 2+
Peatling AGS
McAdam AGS
@40.49.
Come on goal fest
Fog 2+
Riccardi 2+
Rankine 2+
Peatling AGS
McAdam AGS
@40.49.
Come on goal fest
