AFL 2023 - AFL Round 10 (Sir Doug Nicholls Round - part 1)

[balmainforever]

 

[Jugada]

Port should be favourites vs Melbourne at home

Dees away from the G this year have been pretty dreadful. They were getting walloped by Brisbane til the lights went out, got touched up by the Bombers at Adelaide and fell in vs Gold Coast. Few uninspiring wins lately against the Hawks, Suns, North, Eagles and Tigs making it look like they are going better than they actually are

 

[NonPhixion]

Port should be favourites vs Melbourne at home

Dees away from the G this year have been pretty dreadful. They were getting walloped by Brisbane til the lights went out, got touched up by the Bombers at Adelaide and fell in vs Gold Coast. Few uninspiring wins lately against the Hawks, Suns, North, Eagles and Tigs making it look like they are going better than they actually are

agree with you, only concern i have is if Dixon doesn't play they will be relying heavily on Finlayson and i rekon May will be able to shut him out. They are going to need some goals from their mids.

 

[Suncraze]

Richmond -7.5 $1.90 MAX

 

[Teagueeee15]

Port should be favourites vs Melbourne at home

Dees away from the G this year have been pretty dreadful. They were getting walloped by Brisbane til the lights went out, got touched up by the Bombers at Adelaide and fell in vs Gold Coast. Few uninspiring wins lately against the Hawks, Suns, North, Eagles and Tigs making it look like they are going better than they actually are

I will wait for teams to be names, but Melbourne being favourites is fair IMO. Melbourne have a big edge in the ruck with Gawn/Grundy up against the combo of Teakle/Finlayson. Draper and Phillips worked these 2 over big time two weeks ago, so I can imagine the same thing happening again. If Dixon doesn’t get up, then it might have to be Teakle doing 80% of the ruck work, with Finlayson playing out of the square.

 

[Suncraze]

2.5u Swans -37.5 $1.90 Lads

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

2.5u Swans -37.5 $1.90 Lads

You don’t think an interim coach will have the opposite effect?

They weren’t exactly flying with Clarko and Sydney aren’t setting the world on fire

14th v 16th

 

[Suncraze]

You don’t think an interim coach will have the opposite effect?

They weren’t exactly flying with Clarko and Sydney aren’t setting the world on fire

14th v 16th

Yeah it's a big Chol play but just feel Sydney will want to bounce back and North are an easy kill. I think the lines moves out as well so getting on early

 

[pendlebury_10]

2.5u Swans -37.5 $1.90 Lads

I'm heading the other way with a new coach in the seat.

5u North +39.5 $1.90 TAB
1u North H2H $6 SB

North have been awful of late but the Swans in reality have only won one more game for the year and are now decimated by injury.

 

[Derby_77]

Weekly try and cash in on whoever is playing the Eagles SGM. Boosted to 18.67 on Lads

Will Day 100+ AFL fantasy score, Conor Nash

11

Conor Nash

Age

27

Ht

198cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.7

2star

K

3.9

2star

HB

4.8

3star

M

2.0

2star

T

3.1

5star

CL

0.3

2star

No current season stats available

D

8.4

3star

K

4.2

2star

HB

4.2

4star

M

2.4

3star

T

4.0

5star

CL

0.2

2star

+80 AFL fantasy score, Tim Kelly

11

Tim Kelly

Age

31

Ht

184cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.6

5star

K

13.5

5star

HB

10.1

5star

M

3.4

3star

T

4.0

5star

CL

4.9

5star

D

19.9

5star

K

12.3

5star

HB

7.6

4star

M

3.1

3star

T

4.7

5star

CL

3.6

4star

D

21.6

5star

K

10.4

4star

HB

11.2

5star

M

2.8

3star

T

3.8

5star

CL

3.8

5star

90+ AFL fantasy score. Mitch Lewis 4+ Goals.

Kelly has cleared that score every game since round 1, Nash 4 out of last 5 and getting mid time, Day should dominate again the eagles mids and at least one opposition forward seems to kick a bag against the eagles each week.

 

[Suncraze]

I'm heading the other way with a new coach in the seat.

5u North +39.5 $1.90 TAB
1u North H2H $6 SB

North have been awful of late but the Swans in reality have only won one more game for the year and are now decimated by injury.

May the best man win Pendles

 

[pendlebury_10]

May the best man win Pendles

Thats what it's all about Suncraze, you've been hot lately so it's probably foolish of me to oppose you Best of luck.

 

[mookieb]

5u WCE +25.5 $1.90
1u WCE ML $3.80
Both Lads

What's the reasoning here?

WC been atrocious and continuing to lose players (Hurn, Culley, Darling + maybe Jones / SPS). Got pounded at home now doing a big road trip. I just don't think they have the players to be competitive and my clearly rated worst team.

Hawks obviously aren't travelling well but in games they're having a crack they have come very close to beating Crows and GWS.

I'm on Hawks but it was -15.5 at the time.

 

[mookieb]

Port should be favourites vs Melbourne at home

Dees away from the G this year have been pretty dreadful. They were getting walloped by Brisbane til the lights went out, got touched up by the Bombers at Adelaide and fell in vs Gold Coast. Few uninspiring wins lately against the Hawks, Suns, North, Eagles and Tigs making it look like they are going better than they actually are

Talent wise (full strength) Melb is a tier above Port imo. Port with no Dixon, Marshall and Rioli are running with a pretty poor forward line and they'll be destroyed in the ruck and their midfield isn't the same quality regardless.

Port are playing pretty well at the minute though but if they can beat the Demons with half their forward line out while getting killed in the ruck then they can have my money...

 

[Bucking Bronco]

Melbourne lost to Essendon (an interstate team itself) at a neutral venue in Adelaide, with Melbourne having to travel in back-to-back weeks from Perth to Adelaide, where as Essendon did not.

Kind of a stretch to say they lost because of a homeground advantage?

Outside of that they are 2-1 interstate this year, and won all 7 interstate games last year, with all 8 of their losses occurring in Melbourne.

Seems like cherry picking stats if that's the main sell to your argument as to why Port should be favoured to win.

 

[Jugada]

Melbourne lost to Essendon (an interstate team itself) at a neutral venue in Adelaide, with Melbourne having to travel in back-to-back weeks from Perth to Adelaide, where as Essendon did not.

Kind of a stretch to say they lost because of a homeground advantage?

Outside of that they are 2-1 interstate this year, and won all 7 interstate games last year, with all 8 of their losses occurring in Melbourne.

Seems like cherry picking stats if that's the main sell to your argument as to why Port should be favoured to win.

The fact they lost in Adelaide to a Melbourne team is even more damning to their travel ability. Choosing to leave that match out is the definition of cherry picking stats

 

[Suncraze]

What's the reasoning here?

WC been atrocious and continuing to lose players (Hurn, Culley, Darling + maybe Jones / SPS). Got pounded at home now doing a big road trip. I just don't think they have the players to be competitive and my clearly rated worst team.

Hawks obviously aren't travelling well but in games they're having a crack they have come very close to beating Crows and GWS.

I'm on Hawks but it was -15.5 at the time.

Hawks shouldn't be 25.5 points favourites against anyone, period. CJ misses and they are clearly tanking. I expected the line to shorten which it has (21.5 currently) and depending on where it starts I may look to middle. Just thought the line was a little too high, even against WCE. I could be wrong though

 

[Bucking Bronco]

The fact they lost in Adelaide to a Melbourne team is even more damning to their travel ability. Choosing to leave that match out is the definition of cherry picking stats

Why, you can't say that the loss occurred due to a homeground advantage/ pressure from crowd.

You think because they stayed in a hotel before the game and lost there is a correlation between that and them losing games?

 

[Jugada]

I will wait for teams to be names, but Melbourne being favourites is fair IMO. Melbourne have a big edge in the ruck with Gawn/Grundy up against the combo of Teakle/Finlayson. Draper and Phillips worked these 2 over big time two weeks ago, so I can imagine the same thing happening again. If Dixon doesn’t get up, then it might have to be Teakle doing 80% of the ruck work, with Finlayson playing out of the square.

Lycett will be back to ruck

 

[Jugada]

Why, you can't say that the loss occurred due to a homeground advantage/ pressure from crowd.

You think because they stayed in a hotel before the game and lost there is a correlation between that and them losing games?

There is a correlation with them playing worse away from the MCG. Away matches have more to them than oppo fans screaming for the other team

 

[Jugada]

The fact that the opposition didn’t have things to suit either doesn’t take away from the Dees poor effort on the road. If anything it is an even worse away performance

 

[Long Shot Louie]

Hugh Mcluggage odds on B365 look good.
Atg@$3
2+@$15
3+@$81

Kicked 0.3 last week.
3x3+ in 2022

 

[Bucking Bronco]

They had to travel from Victoria to Perth, back to Victoria, then to Adelaide (3 trips) in the space of 6 days, compared Essendon who played at home then came over to Adelaide (1 trip). That is more salient than anything.

Also, Melbourne were 7-0 interstate and 9-8 in Melbourne last year.

Anyway, good luck, I just don't see the argument is all.

 

[gillon]

Hugh Mcluggage odds on B365 look good.
Atg@$3
2+@$15
3+@$81

Kicked 0.3 last week.
3x3+ in 2022

1.6 this year and 85.105 over his career.

I will waste my money on him again this week

 

[Mags98]

Hugh Mcluggage odds on B365 look good.
Atg@$3
2+@$15
3+@$81

Kicked 0.3 last week.
3x3+ in 2022

backing at 3