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AFL 2023 - AFL Round 6

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Bucking Bronco said:
Well, you're already on the right side with the line movement for all of them.

I'll tail $50 a pick, but I'm expecting it won't go too well.

Problem with tailing people is you only ever tail people who have been going really well (and overperforming), and hop on once they start reverting back to the mean.

The best people to tail are actually people who have been losing money but long-term go a bit better than break even, as they are more often than not, close to starting to bounce back.

Literally every tipping service I've ever followed just haemorrhaged money. One guy won like the first 3, then legit lost the next 25. Absolute madness. Lost a lot of coin on it over the years.

Anyway, good luck my man.
Click to expand...

Bolded part not actually true. Whether their previous short term results have been good, bad or somewhere in between it makes no difference to what's possibly coming up
 
maskmcgee said:
20+ Macrae Bont Libba T. Kelly Cumming I.Smith, M.Wood, Weller, Prestia, Rioli, McGrath, Shiel, T. Mitchell, J. Daicos, Pendelbury
25+ Coniglio, Taranto, B.Crouch, J.Sinclair, Serong, Sheezel
30+ N. Daicos, Parish

@$214.70

Got up 5 out of 5 rounds this season
Click to expand...

TAILED
 
Sturt 2+ 3+ 4+ @ pb

better odds at 365 but cant get


second game back in 2 years, natural forward, should improve this week, if DBJ can kick two on the dogs surely sturt can?
 
maskmcgee said:
20+ Macrae Bont Libba T. Kelly Cumming I.Smith, M.Wood, Weller, Prestia, Rioli, McGrath, Shiel, T. Mitchell, J. Daicos, Pendelbury
25+ Coniglio, Taranto, B.Crouch, J.Sinclair, Serong, Sheezel
30+ N. Daicos, Parish

@$214.70

Got up 5 out of 5 rounds this season
Click to expand...
Theres a 0% chance of this hitting







I'm on
 

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maskmcgee said:
What is this 'model'? And what use is it if it's lost money? I've seen there's lots of people on this board are making money hand over fist this season. I'm up over 60 times my original deposit for the season. What is this model supposed to do? Is it like squiggle, where many people swear by it being a god at tipping, when in reality it's average at best?
Click to expand...

You are far more likely to hear more from people who are winning than losing.

Take the Cadman play from last week. A lot of people on this board were on the Cadman train.

Some were even saying it was the Thilthorpe of 2023.

It didn't get past the first station (which was paying **** all) meaning a lot of people lost a lot of coin on that one.

That's just one example, there are many others.

It would be cool if next year there were some kind of system implemented for posters to openly and objectively track their winnings / losses across the season.

Maybe a separate thread (one for the whole year) only for posts detailing the bet, the bookie, and the unit(s), and YTD progress.

It could run in parallel with the weekly Rd threads, which could remain as they are, i.e. people posting anything, usually without reference to unit sizes, profits/losses, etc.

You would find far fewer posters in the objective tracking thread, and by the end of the season, there would only be a handful of genuine winners i.e. people ending the season up.

I'm not saying this to diss anybody or to rain on parades. Most of the long-termers on this board know what I am saying is true.

Selim is on a roll lately and if he is smart he will lock in some profits to ensure he ends 2023 up.

jikost keeps hitting clever bets and I would guess (and hope) he is also considerably up for the season.

dontlimitme has hit a few massive trains and these have hopefully more than paid for the trains which busted.

There's certainly a few other posters / lurkers who are up so far in 2023.

But to say "there's lots of people on this board are making money hand over fist this season" is at best a rosy and optimistic take.

You've seen a lot of people celebrating winning bets, but this does not mean they are all 'making money hand over fist'.

In fact most posters here still seem to be able to bet with bet365 and sportsbet, that should tell you all you need to know.
 
Bucking Bronco said:
No, don't worry.

How can you have a decent edge that dates back several seasons and only be betting $50? I'd be betting it like a cowboy lol.
Click to expand...
Tbh i would have gone live like a year ago if i listened to my mates, they reckon i should be charging people for the picks.

I'm way too careful with money, those unit sizes are big for me lol
 
mouncey2franklin said:
You are far more likely to hear more from people who are winning than losing.

Take the Cadman play from last week. A lot of people on this board were on the Cadman train.

Some were even saying it was the Thilthorpe of 2023.

It didn't get past the first station (which was paying **** all) meaning a lot of people lost a lot of coin on that one.

That's just one example, there are many others.

It would be cool if next year there were some kind of system implemented for posters to openly and objectively track their winnings / losses across the season.

Maybe a separate thread (one for the whole year) only for posts detailing the bet, the bookie, and the unit(s), and YTD progress.

It could run in parallel with the weekly Rd threads, which could remain as they are, i.e. people posting anything, usually without reference to unit sizes, profits/losses, etc.

You would find far fewer posters in the objective tracking thread, and by the end of the season, there would only be a handful of genuine winners i.e. people ending the season up.

I'm not saying this to diss anybody or to rain on parades. Most of the long-termers on this board know what I am saying is true.

Selim is on a roll lately and if he is smart he will lock in some profits to ensure he ends 2023 up.

jikost keeps hitting clever bets and I would guess (and hope) he is also considerably up for the season.

dontlimitme has hit a few massive trains and these have hopefully more than paid for the trains which busted.

There's certainly a few other posters / lurkers who are up so far in 2023.

But to say "there's lots of people on this board are making money hand over fist this season" is at best a rosy and optimistic take.

You've seen a lot of people celebrating winning bets, but this does not mean they are all 'making money hand over fist'.

In fact most posters here still seem to be able to bet with bet365 and sportsbet, that should tell you all you need to know.
Click to expand...

we're all adults and the information here is free and to be used at your own discretion, good on people who wanna track their wins and losses etc but **** bothering with all that.

i'm a degenerate.
 
[PLAYERCARD]Callan Ward[/PLAYERCARD] atg@$2.20 SB
[PLAYERCARD]Callan Ward[/PLAYERCARD] 2+@$7.50 SB
[PLAYERCARD]Callan Ward[/PLAYERCARD] 3+@$46 SB

Has scored at least one goal in 7 out of his last 8 matches and has had 11 shots on goal in his 5 games this year. Pushing forward a lot, runs straight lines towards the goals and loving having a ping at the moment.
 
dontlimitme said:
i'm a degenerate.
Click to expand...

Same here, brother.

I finished '20 down, '21 up, '22 up, and am down so far in '23.

One more goal to Hill in Rd 4, or one more goal to DBJ last week, and I would be well in the green.

But I punt for fun and somehow this season has still been a lot of fun, thanks mostly to my fellow degens on this board.

Long may it continue.
 
I still think we should have a custom "tailed" button on here

I follow a shit tonne of the trains and some hit and others don't but I don't have the time to sit down and write out everything i'm on, I just try to love/like react what I tail and then comment when it hits the first station so I can join in the fun


If we had a custom "Tailed" button it would be awesome
 
mouncey2franklin said:
You are far more likely to hear more from people who are winning than losing.

Take the Cadman play from last week. A lot of people on this board were on the Cadman train.

Some were even saying it was the Thilthorpe of 2023.

It didn't get past the first station (which was paying **** all) meaning a lot of people lost a lot of coin on that one.

That's just one example, there are many others.

It would be cool if next year there were some kind of system implemented for posters to openly and objectively track their winnings / losses across the season.

Maybe a separate thread (one for the whole year) only for posts detailing the bet, the bookie, and the unit(s), and YTD progress.

It could run in parallel with the weekly Rd threads, which could remain as they are, i.e. people posting anything, usually without reference to unit sizes, profits/losses, etc.

You would find far fewer posters in the objective tracking thread, and by the end of the season, there would only be a handful of genuine winners i.e. people ending the season up.

I'm not saying this to diss anybody or to rain on parades. Most of the long-termers on this board know what I am saying is true.

Selim is on a roll lately and if he is smart he will lock in some profits to ensure he ends 2023 up.

jikost keeps hitting clever bets and I would guess (and hope) he is also considerably up for the season.

dontlimitme has hit a few massive trains and these have hopefully more than paid for the trains which busted.

There's certainly a few other posters / lurkers who are up so far in 2023.

But to say "there's lots of people on this board are making money hand over fist this season" is at best a rosy and optimistic take.

You've seen a lot of people celebrating winning bets, but this does not mean they are all 'making money hand over fist'.

In fact most posters here still seem to be able to bet with bet365 and sportsbet, that should tell you all you need to know.
Click to expand...
I agree with everything you’ve said here except for the bolded. I refuse to believe that people who are clearly passionate degenerates and spend a lot of time thinking about gambling can not find a way around this. Especially if they are able to demonstrate to their friends and family that they do all right on the punt. One could probably be profitable without these books but it would be bloody difficult.
 
I'm so far back I've taken a break. I like reading the threads but Sunday past was the first gameday I have not had a bet.

I bet well well well within my limits, for comparatively tiny stakes compared to a lot of the people on here. It has never been about the money itself. What I found was it just got too negative and frustrating for me watching bets go down on teams IDGAF about, often narrowly. I can't really describe it - it's like losing twenty games of chess in a row or something when you figured you actually have a decent idea on how to play the game?

I really did wind myself up, lost all touch with what I was doing and figured it was best to get out of my own way until I can figure it out.

It's the bets you don't make that separate the winners from the losers. But probably not in the way many people think.
 

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freo_leo29 said:
Bont 25 and 1 @3.39 PB

Bont 25 and 2 @10 PB

Bont 30 and 1 @6.90 PB

Bont 30 and 2 @15.79 PB
Click to expand...
I like this bro. Was looking at Bont myself. To give you some further confidence for your bet, his recent matches in Perth since 2019 are as follows:

21 dips and 1.2 vs west coast 2022
30 dips and 2.1 vs Freo 2022
27 dips and 2.2 vs Freo 2021
29 dips and 3.1 vs west coast 2021
25 dips and 3.0 vs Melbourne 2021 GF
22 dips and 1.0 vs Freo 2019
27 dips and 1.3 vs west coast 2019

Those scoreboard chances in particular are nice asf, and usually gets the touches to go along with it.

2+ 5.50
3+ 17
4+ 67

I’ve gone in and single handedly dropped the odds while I’m at it (sorry)
 
BloodRet said:
I like this bro. Was looking at Bont myself. To give you some further confidence for your bet, his recent matches in Perth since 2019 are as follows:

21 dips and 1.2 vs west coast 2022
30 dips and 2.1 vs Freo 2022
27 dips and 2.2 vs Freo 2021
29 dips and 3.1 vs west coast 2021
25 dips and 3.0 vs Melbourne 2021 GF
22 dips and 1.0 vs Freo 2019
27 dips and 1.3 vs west coast 2019

Those scoreboard chances in particular are nice asf, and usually gets the touches to go along with it.

2+ 5.50
3+ 17
4+ 67

I’ve gone in and single handedly dropped the odds while I’m at it (sorry)
Click to expand...
I reckon I've been to the majority of those matches and every time I'd be saying that bont is ****ing tearing it up

Good to see the stats back it up
 
GotGameButNoName said:
I'm so far back I've taken a break. I like reading the threads but Sunday past was the first gameday I have not had a bet.

I bet well well well within my limits, for comparatively tiny stakes compared to a lot of the people on here. It has never been about the money itself. What I found was it just got too negative and frustrating for me watching bets go down on teams IDGAF about, often narrowly. I can't really describe it - it's like losing twenty games of chess in a row or something when you figured you actually have a decent idea on how to play the game?

I really did wind myself up, lost all touch with what I was doing and figured it was best to get out of my own way until I can figure it out.

It's the bets you don't make that separate the winners from the losers. But probably not in the way many people think.
Click to expand...

It is good to be able to recognise a problem and take a step back.

Ideally one would be able to reduce bet sizes well before the need to stop altogether, this is one of the key tenets on bankroll management.

So you might start the season with a bankroll of 100u, say you lose 10 or 20 in the first few rounds, you just reduce bet sizes so that even if your bad run continues, losses are reduced, your bankroll lasts long enough for the good times to return.

Of course the flipside of this is that if you start winning with lower bet sizes, it is easy to think, 'if I had have kept betting at the same amount, I would have won more, I shouldn't have reduced bet sizes'.

But that is the point of bankroll management: you start out with a plan and stick to it, even if at times it is frustrating.

Punting comes with swings and roundabouts, but it is overall meant to be enjoyable, and starting the season with a known amount which you are willing to lose, and can afford to lose, if things go pear-shaped, should mean you are never stressed about losses, because the worst case scenario is that you lose the starting bankroll* and have to wait until next season to try again.

*And it should take a long time to wipe out the starting bankroll because, as I said, ideally you would reduce bet sizes once you creep too far into the red.

Of course this is only one method of punting. There are others, which can yield greater returns and are more fun.

For example, the Full Degen method involves punting whatever you have laying around each week, not even tracking wins and losses, and celebrating the highs of trains reaching stations 5/6, and yelling at the TV when some fool at station 4 passes off a joe the goose which costs you hundreds or even thousands of dollars, struggling to sleep because you keep replaying that moment over and over again in your head, thinking 'if only he kicked that, I could have bought myself [insert whatever]'.

The main point is, when it stops being fun, it is important to be able to reassess. This stuff should not negatively affect the rest of your day to day life. It is no different to drugs in this sense. And it is ******* addictive which is why so many people get themselves into situations they shouldn't be in, and it is why I'm happy to see guys taking the books to the cleaners, because the books make most of their money from addicts imho.
 
GotGameButNoName said:
I'm so far back I've taken a break. I like reading the threads but Sunday past was the first gameday I have not had a bet.

I bet well well well within my limits, for comparatively tiny stakes compared to a lot of the people on here. It has never been about the money itself. What I found was it just got too negative and frustrating for me watching bets go down on teams IDGAF about, often narrowly. I can't really describe it - it's like losing twenty games of chess in a row or something when you figured you actually have a decent idea on how to play the game?

I really did wind myself up, lost all touch with what I was doing and figured it was best to get out of my own way until I can figure it out.

It's the bets you don't make that separate the winners from the losers. But probably not in the way many people think.
Click to expand...
My Brother, we live in a world of infinite possibilities and you do not have to do something that is making you feel like this. You have to ask yourself if the spirit of degeneracy really flows through you. Do you wake up in the morning thinking about which back pocket plodder will be switched forward this weekend? How many shitpot appartments you can sell in your day job? How many directionless young sloots you can root? Does your dick get hard when you heck the books?

Some of us were born like this and if you are not one of them it is not necessarily a bad thing. It probably means you are a functioning member of society, someone who is a role player in the very machine that facilitates our marvellous modern lives. In many ways, I envy you and your kind. Those who’s souls are not yet hardened to the sting of all worldly rejections on the eternal path to Degenerate nirvana. At a certain point you can only relate to those with the same affliction.
The Degenerates.
 
Long Shot Louie said:
You have to ask yourself if the spirit of degeneracy really flows through you.
Click to expand...
It does not, at least not in a sufficient quantity to bear mentioning in this company.

For me it's more about tangibly challenging my intuition and thinking towards the modern game, ideally culminating in finding some sort of temporary edge by identifying a trend or pattern of play the books find troublesome to price in. I guess at some level I recognize that it's nice to win but it's never going to be life altering money - the books will just cut you off and wouldn't over expose themselves anyway. It's a hobby or past time of sorts which is where our roads veer wildly it seems.

The constant losses I've hit recently have been like the universe calling me a dumb campaigner on the daily basically. Bizarrely it's become an affront to my ego. Freudian types - of which you do seem the type friend - might speculate that some deep seated inferiority complex is manifesting itself through a sequence of largely meaningless - in the material sense - sessions of gambling. Meaningless in a material sense, but substantive in that it preserves and codifies a mindset through a series of what would otherwise appear to be irrational behaviours.

I'm a little more generous than the Freudians. It's a pleasant way to pass the time if you can summon a strike rate in double digits - a feat so easy that even chance itself is on your side - but sadly this season it has proved beyond me. I tried to do the math the other day, something like thirty five straight losers, two thirds by one leg. A Charlie Dixon poster away the other day, a Darcy Fort miskicking clinic another, a Shai Bolton disaster class in there, a Cripps gets 19 when he needed 20 as well.

I realised on Sunday that my dismal strike rate had actually removed - for now - virtually all the aspects that make footy punting a pleasant past time. It was starting to affect my mood and I find my mood then can affect my outlook. My outlook affects my future.

I'll almost certainly be back losing dough at some stage - the small tinge of degeneracy I alluded to at the start of this reply. But Sunday past, the first game day of the season I've not bet, was really nice. Not least because it was the first Sunday since the season started I didn't finish behind.
 

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thinking i might jump on tex walker for a bag this week. He had 6 shots on goal last week, and both the last times hes been down to tassie hes kicked 3 and 6. Hawks let [PLAYERCARD]jesse hogan[/PLAYERCARD] have 6 shots at the big sticks, and adelaide are a better team than GWS.
3+ $3.05
4+ $6.50
5+ $16
6+ $41 sportsbet

also not bad odds for this bloke who kicked 3.1 a fortnight ago
Luke Pedlar
2+ $4.25
3+ $13
4+ $46 sportsbet
 
kicksome said:
thinking i might jump on tex walker for a bag this week. He had 6 shots on goal last week, and both the last times hes been down to tassie hes kicked 3 and 6. Hawks let jesse hogan have 6 shots at the big sticks, and adelaide are a better team than GWS.
3+ $3.05
4+ $6.50
5+ $16
6+ $41 sportsbet

also not bad odds for this bloke who kicked 3.1 a fortnight ago
Luke Pedlar
2+ $4.25
3+ $13
4+ $46 sportsbet
Click to expand...

Tailed the big Texan he’s bound to go off sooner rather than later and hawks a good matchup
 
GotGameButNoName said:
It was starting to affect my mood and I find my mood then can affect my outlook. My outlook affects my future.
Click to expand...
100% you’ve hit the nail on the head. There is a very real metaphysical reason why the mega minds at Billion dollar entities like Sportsbet are happy to run all these “you’ll lose all your money and heck your life” advertisement campaigns and that is that it subconsciously puts people in a negative mindset before they even begin.
Obviously you need to have the basic fundamentals downpat but after that it is really about having a positive and dynamic mental imagery.
An example of this is the many politicians(huge degens btw) who are people with no obviously outstanding abilities yet seem to get whatever they want at will, yet many very capable people are destroyed by their own limiting beliefs.
It is about mindset.
You have to keep a positive mental picture at all times. This sounds gay and woo, but it is the universal truth and the missing piece of the puzzle that will deliver the Degen Brotherhood to the holiest of holies, Where we will live, free of shame and surrounded by bountiful pleasures.
 

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