balmainforever
Dibs
- Sep 4, 2003
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AFL 2023 - AFL Round 6
- Thread starter balmainforever
- Start date
- Tagged users None
GROTTO
TheBrownDog
- Jul 5, 2013
- 66,745
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- ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
You know youre a degenerate when you log in at 430am to see if anything has been posted for Round 6. 
- Feb 25, 2013
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Last night I was sitting there with the Mrs watching some s**t on Netflix and I'm going through round 5 heat maps thinking about r6You know youre a degenerate when you log in at 430am to see if anything has been posted for Round 6.
- Sep 7, 2008
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The Saints seem wildly overs.
Feel like the odds should be reversed.
Feel like the odds should be reversed.
Lmao all I’ve been thinking about is next weeks bets and if I can even back up the results I just had, I still wanna buy that computer and I weirdly won the exact amount I need lol, but do I wanna risk buying it and what if next week my betting luck runs out?? I ain’t good with these decisionsYou know youre a degenerate when you log in at 430am to see if anything has been posted for Round 6.
- May 5, 2014
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Well, you're already on the right side with the line movement for all of them.
I'll tail $50 a pick, but I'm expecting it won't go too well.
Problem with tailing people is you only ever tail people who have been going really well (and overperforming), and hop on once they start reverting back to the mean.
The best people to tail are actually people who have been losing money but long-term go a bit better than break even, as they are more often than not, close to starting to bounce back.
Literally every tipping service I've ever followed just haemorrhaged money. One guy won like the first 3, then legit lost the next 25. Absolute madness. Lost a lot of coin on it over the years.
Anyway, good luck my man.
GROTTO
TheBrownDog
- Jul 5, 2013
- 66,745
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Buy the computer and reduce your bet size.Lmao all I’ve been thinking about is next weeks bets and if I can even back up the results I just had, I still wanna buy that computer and I weirdly won the exact amount I need lol, but do I wanna risk buying it and what if next week my betting luck runs out?? I ain’t good with these decisions
You will have something you need and that you will enjoy to show for your punting.
- Dec 9, 2018
- 422
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Like Will Gould as my smoky bet of the round. Had 9 disposals from 45% TOG coming on as sub last week. He's $3.75 for 15 and $15 for 20 (B365) which I'm dabbling on. He's always had big numbers in the VFL off half-back as well. Gamble responsibly!
thats what im thinking, and if i do strike out atleast i still got a new computer lmaoBuy the computer and reduce your bet size.
You will have something you need and that you will enjoy to show for your punting.
- Aug 16, 2009
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Early nomination for this week's DBJ at silly odds, Nick Hind. Came on as the sub and kicked 2, he's prime sub material but that makes this bet pretty low risk anyway since its just money back if he doesn't start. We don't really have a need for him off half back anymore given McGrath has settled back into his correct spot and he might get a run over Menzie/Davey this week as a forward, having played that role before at the Saints.
B365
AGS $5.50
2+ $51
3+ $401
B365
AGS $5.50
2+ $51
3+ $401
Max Gawn is almost certain to return for the ANZAC eve clash against Richmond, which will free Brodie Grundy up for the forward/second ruck role he played in the practice match (3 goals) and round 1 (2 scoring shots, 80% forward TOG)
AGS @ $2.40 365
2+ @ $8.5
3+ @ $34
AGS @ $2.40 365
2+ @ $8.5
3+ @ $34
- May 5, 2014
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- 1,502
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Crazy odds.Early nomination for this week's DBJ at silly odds, Nick Hind. Came on as the sub and kicked 2, he's prime sub material but that makes this bet pretty low risk anyway since its just money back if he doesn't start. We don't really have a need for him off half back anymore given McGrath has settled back into his correct spot and he might get a run over Menzie/Davey this week as a forward, having played that role before at the Saints.
B365
AGS $5.50
2+ $51
3+ $401
Unfortunately shortened to 3.10 & 15 within 5 mins of posting lol.
Congrats to whoever got it and crashed the odds.
Collingwood's makeshfit ruck of the week (I think it was Frampton yesterday) continues to leak disposals to whoever their opponent happens to be. Marshall 25 disposals yesterday after Big O and Nank both recorded season high numbers.
Draper 15+ @ $2.25 365
Draper 15+ @ $2.25 365
- Feb 25, 2013
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Fair, I'm also doing $50 units on this.
Also just a note, the Saints picks are half a unit on each.
Started the year really poorly, however last week came back a bit, went 7-2 SU. Haven't confirmed opening lines yet.
Usually takes a month to get going. I could go more in detail about how well it went the last 2 years but it's irrelevant, that being said I'm confident that it will be profitable the rest of the season and will end up positive, you've probably picked the perfect time to jump on.
- May 5, 2014
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- 1,502
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- Gold Coast
Yeah, I've been keeping an eye on your stuff and have been a bit intrigued by it. Saw you mention that you start slow every year so was an easy decision to hold off as I'm quite averse to tailing anyway. Was this thing profitable in 2020 too?
What is this 'model'? And what use is it if it's lost money? I've seen there's lots of people on this board are making money hand over fist this season. I'm up over 60 times my original deposit for the season. What is this model supposed to do? Is it like squiggle, where many people swear by it being a god at tipping, when in reality it's average at best?
- May 5, 2014
- 1,095
- 1,502
- AFL Club
- Gold Coast
It's one thing to be profitable over a 6 week period, it could be luck as much as anything as the sample size is not big enough to give any surety (this is what professional bettors will say). Anything that has long-term results of success, even if the success isn't anything too massive, is going to be seen as very desirable from an investing standpoint as the data almost ensures guaranteed profit, all things being equal.
Personally I find it hard to believe that people can be long-term profitable from just saying "I think it's Rankine's day today, on him for 3", and beat the books. It's hard to overstate how good the bookies are at pricing things in their favour long-term, although I do think the most inefficient market currently is goal scorers. Stuff like betting on a defender who's switching forward will continue to be something that has a lot of value and will be highly profitable going forward though.
I made over $100K in the first few months when I first started betting and thought it was an absolute cakewalk. There's always some people that just get lucky (although there is probably still some skill to get there) and just keep on winning for a bit, but unless there is a verifiable edge it will likely all catch up with you. Like it did with me, I lost it all in about a quarter of the time it took me to get there lol.
- Feb 25, 2013
- 51,222
- 58,286
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
Yeah it was but i only started mid season. I can dig up the numbers when I'm home later
Post a picture of the computer instead of trains
- May 5, 2014
- 1,095
- 1,502
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- Gold Coast
No, don't worry.
How can you have a decent edge that dates back several seasons and only be betting $50? I'd be betting it like a cowboy lol.
Because getting down is the hardest part. You can always bet 50$ early lines no problems. Start betting 500+ you can't bet anything till Thursday + when all the value is gone.
Afl is one of the easiest sports to have a big edge on betting early. Look how much the opening lines move or how wrong disposal / goals are early week.
20+ Macrae Bont Libba T. Kelly Cumming I.Smith, M.Wood, Weller, Prestia, Rioli, McGrath, Shiel, T. Mitchell, J. Daicos, Pendelbury
25+ Coniglio, Taranto, B.Crouch, J.Sinclair, Serong, Sheezel
30+ N. Daicos, Parish
@$214.70
Got up 5 out of 5 rounds this season
25+ Coniglio, Taranto, B.Crouch, J.Sinclair, Serong, Sheezel
30+ N. Daicos, Parish
@$214.70
Got up 5 out of 5 rounds this season
