AFL 2023 - AFL Round 6

[balmainforever]

 

[NonPhixion]

These threads really are the best part of the internet

 

[the_big_sav]

Players who have covered their disposal target 100% of the time, sorted by their average disposals. Odds via SB.

View attachment 1663790
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i wonder how many of these 100% i can turn into 83%

 

[GotGameButNoName]

that it is really about having a positive and dynamic mental imagery.

Intellectually I know this, but still can never hear it often enough. Too many people limit themselves before they even attempt to consciously do something. ("Nah, I'd never be able to cook/make/read/understand/etc that..."

The world is all too happy to set obstacles and limits to what we can achieve; it's madness to assist it in that process. The only person truly on your side, all the time is you after all.

That said I just finished one Harden assist short of a collect on the Nets-76ers game. So my (campaigner) luck is utterly transferable right now. I am genuinely laughing about it as I type though.

 

[Suncraze]

This thread has been detailed #Trains

 

[kicksome]

thought these odds are generous and I better get in before they change

David swallow

24

David Swallow

Age

33

Ht

186cm

Wt

87kg

Pos.

D/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.1

5star

K

11.7

4star

HB

9.4

5star

M

3.2

3star

T

4.4

5star

MG

307.5

4star

D

18.4

4star

K

11.1

4star

HB

7.3

4star

M

4.3

4star

T

4.6

5star

MG

283.9

4star

D

19.4

5star

K

10.0

4star

HB

9.4

5star

M

2.8

3star

T

5.0

5star

.
Played forward last week and kicked 3.1 - Cant see why they would not play him there this week? also playing north, who have been competitive but got smashed on the weekend, so they might be a bit demoralized. Travelling up to queensland to take on gold coast the last couple times has seen them lose but a combined total of 129. Swallow kicked 1.1 in both of these games playing midfield im guessing

AGS $2.40
2+ $8.50
3+ $34
4+ $250 @b365

 

[Ouchkabibbles]

thought these odds are generous and I better get in before they change

David swallow.
Played forward last week and kicked 3.1 - Cant see why they would not play him there this week? also playing north, who have been competitive but got smashed on the weekend, so they might be a bit demoralized. Travelling up to queensland to take on gold coast the last couple times has seen them lose but a combined total of 129. Swallow kicked 1.1 in both of these games playing midfield im guessing

AGS $2.40
2+ $8.50
3+ $34
4+ $250 @b365

Nice, tailed, got a whole 2cents on at 4+ here

 

[demon_fanatic]

adelaide hawks seems a bit low 171.5.... both move the ball direct and fast and I can't see Hawks going into a defensive mode with a young team. weather seems ok too.. also dont mind Bris vs Gws over 166.5.

 

[gordo2016]

I'll probably get a few ha ha's for this (never mind) but I reckon Rory Lobb

7

Rory Lobb

Age

33

Ht

207cm

Wt

106kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.0

3star

K

6.7

3star

HB

4.4

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.4

4star

MG

174.6

3star

D

11.3

3star

K

8.0

3star

HB

3.3

2star

M

4.6

4star

T

1.4

2star

MG

228.6

3star

D

7.0

2star

K

4.0

2star

HB

3.0

3star

M

2.6

3star

T

2.8

5star

MG

133.0

3star

will kick 5+ against Freo. Chuck in a couple from Weightman and 25+ for Bont @$161.

 

[based]

hed be lucky to kick 5 blades of grass

 

[Mags98]

I'll probably get a few ha ha's for this (never mind) but I reckon Rory Lobb will kick 5+ against Freo. Chuck in a couple from Weightman and 25+ for Bont @$161.

dont think he will handle the pressure well tbf, but if hes lining up against pearce anythings possible.

 

[maskmcgee]

Sportsbet's finally tanked the free bets promo it seems

 

[BloodRet]

I'll probably get a few ha ha's for this (never mind) but I reckon Rory Lobb will kick 5+ against Freo. Chuck in a couple from Weightman and 25+ for Bont @$161.

yeah would usually be a good bet in this situation, former side, left on bad terms, hostile reception. A lot of players would heat up. However Lobb doesn’t exactly have the heart of a lion. More of a peahearted squib who will probably fold like deck chairs and kick 0.3. Good luck tho I could be wrong

 

[GROTTO]

yeah would usually be a good bet in this situation, former side, left on bad terms, hostile reception. A lot of players would heat up. However Lobb doesn’t exactly have the heart of a lion. More of a peahearted squib who will probably fold like deck chairs and kick 0.3. Good luck tho I could be wrong

I have already predicted what you would do at the final siren if Lobb kicked 0.3 and you backed him.

 

[BloodRet]

Actually you know what. TAILED

It’s actually not a bad shout. But there’s no way I’m taking him outright, no confidence in him. I’ve taken $5 on him 3+ just incase, into Bont 25, SPP 2, himmelberg 2, Hawkins 4 @331

 

[targett]

One of the most common misconceptions in sports betting is that if a bet wins, it was a good bet. On the other hand, if a bet loses, the most obvious reaction is to think it was a bad bet. Often you'll hear Punters say "the right side is the winning side, the wrong side is the losing side." It's easy to see why people think this way. It sounds right in theory but the logic is flawed.
The truth is that wins and losses don't determine whether a bet was good or bad or right or wrong. A smart bet is determined before the game is even played based on hard data, where the value lies and most importantly, what number you bet the game at. The outcome is irrelevant.
Closing line value, also known as "CLV" for short, is a simple comparison of what number you bet a game at compared to what the line ended up closing at. If you got a better number than what the line closed at, that would be considered a smart bet because you beat the closing line. In other words, it means you beat the market and got better odds, or a better price, than the closing price. In turn, if you end up betting a team at a worse number than what the line closed at, that would be considered a bad bet because you read the game wrong etc , and the market beat you. Let's say you bet Carlton -9.5 against Essendon . But the line ends up reversing and closes off at -4.5 . Carlton go on to win the game by 15 points. Great, right? Not exactly. Yes you won your bet, but you got beat by the closing line. You paid more for Carlton than what they were really worth. And although it worked out for you on this particular occasion, over the long term losing points off the closing line will have a negative effect on your bankroll because you are overpaying and betting bad numbers.
This is why good punters determine the quality of their bets by comparing them to the closing line, not whether they win or lose. If you were to to bet Carlton -9.5 and the the lined closed at -15.5, that would be considered a smart bet because you beat the closing line. Even if Carlton fail to cover or lose the game outright, you still read the game correctly and bet the game at a better number than what it closed at. Over the long haul, if you keep beating the market that will lead to far more wins than losses.
I believe we all have our mythology , Degen or not .This is just something that has worked personally . GL BF Team

 

[Geead]

I think Adelaide will smash us, Hawks played Sunday, Crows on Thursday - I'm expecting us to drop off hard in at least 1Qtr due to fatigue

 

[targett]

Merrett Upheld

 

[kicksome]

I think Adelaide will smash us, Hawks played Sunday, Crows on Thursday - I'm expecting us to drop off hard in at least 1Qtr due to fatigue

I did think it was strange how much more of a break Adelaide gets. That's why I've bet on tex walker to kick 4, 5 and 6. Also pedlar for 2,3,4.
Trying to find out what other value I like

 

[jikost]

Merrett Upheld

I was thinking who might get his CB's, but they'll almost certainly just bring Ben Hobbs in as a like-for-like replacement. Hobbs is averaging 30+ disposals in the VFL this year playing pure mid, so one to keep an eye out for when the teams are announced.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I was thinking who might get his CB's, but they'll almost certainly just bring Ben Hobbs in as a like-for-like replacement. Hobbs is averaging 30+ disposals in the VFL this year playing pure mid, so one to keep an eye out for when the teams are announced.

Setterfield I’d be looking at for higher possessions

 

[Long Shot Louie]

One of the most common misconceptions in sports betting is that if a bet wins, it was a good bet. On the other hand, if a bet loses, the most obvious reaction is to think it was a bad bet. Often you'll hear Punters say "the right side is the winning side, the wrong side is the losing side." It's easy to see why people think this way. It sounds right in theory but the logic is flawed.
The truth is that wins and losses don't determine whether a bet was good or bad or right or wrong. A smart bet is determined before the game is even played based on hard data, where the value lies and most importantly, what number you bet the game at. The outcome is irrelevant.
Closing line value, also known as "CLV" for short, is a simple comparison of what number you bet a game at compared to what the line ended up closing at. If you got a better number than what the line closed at, that would be considered a smart bet because you beat the closing line. In other words, it means you beat the market and got better odds, or a better price, than the closing price. In turn, if you end up betting a team at a worse number than what the line closed at, that would be considered a bad bet because you read the game wrong etc , and the market beat you. Let's say you bet Carlton -9.5 against Essendon . But the line ends up reversing and closes off at -4.5 . Carlton go on to win the game by 15 points. Great, right? Not exactly. Yes you won your bet, but you got beat by the closing line. You paid more for Carlton than what they were really worth. And although it worked out for you on this particular occasion, over the long term losing points off the closing line will have a negative effect on your bankroll because you are overpaying and betting bad numbers.
This is why good punters determine the quality of their bets by comparing them to the closing line, not whether they win or lose. If you were to to bet Carlton -9.5 and the the lined closed at -15.5, that would be considered a smart bet because you beat the closing line. Even if Carlton fail to cover or lose the game outright, you still read the game correctly and bet the game at a better number than what it closed at. Over the long haul, if you keep beating the market that will lead to far more wins than losses.
I believe we all have our mythology , Degen or not .This is just something that has worked personally . GL BF Team

Very high value and informative post. Thanks for typing that out. I believe it applies to trains as well I.e you back a defender at $300 and his odds are crunched in before the game and he indeed plays forward then you have made a good bet regardless of whether he kicks goals or not. The way I like to think about it is if the game were to played on 300 hypothetical alternate planets then on how many of those planets would such a thing be likely to occur. If it’s on quite a few of those planets then you have yourself a good bet. I believe that >90% of the worlds population is incapable of understanding this concept.

 

[jikost]

Setterfield I’d be looking at for higher possessions

Problem with Setterfield is they often use him for a negative role, so he might just sit on De Goey or Daicos the whole match.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Problem with Setterfield is they often use him for a negative role, so he might just sit on De Goey or Daicos the whole match.

Maybe or he might ply that true inside role I’d take a chance the price is there imo

 

[Hava Alle]

Players who have covered their disposal target 100% of the time, sorted by their average disposals. Odds via SB.

View attachment 1663790
View attachment 1663793View attachment 1663794

You're doing God's work my friend.

 

[Hava Alle]

Sportsbet's finally tanked the free bets promo it seems

Free hit Friday night available now. I've already put mine on.