Prediction 2023 Ladder Predictor

[macky99]

*See Geelong side for comparisons to age and top up players…

Tigers still better on the outside than us, run and delivery better…

We have a very strong mid field group now & expect further improvement in 23 with Acres & Hollands adding some outside run, Cerra will be a 20% better player in 23 so don't agree on that point, l don't see Richmond close to the team of 2-3 years ago.
They missed finals in 2021 and scraped in 2022, so based on their age list profile, l see other teams more of a threat than the Tigers.

Geelong & Melbourne are significantly ahead of Richmond.

 

[Benaly28]

Us Top 4.

That’s it.


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[JustaBattler]

We are talking 2023 ladder probabilities not 24/25 /26....

No way does Geelong destroy Richmond in grand final like they did to Sydney - who were (like Collingwood) massive flukey over achievers.

DO I think Richmond are flag certainties? NOPE
DO I think any team is a flag certainty ? NOPE

DO I think Carlton can match the 4 I nominated and beat them - we will see... a LOT has to go right and Carlton's game plan is heavily reliant on a midfield and KPF dominance- right as of '22- I see a lot of passenger type players at Carlton- too few up front that can win one on ones or kicks goals - this is what needs to be fixed to become a genuine contender - that and getting cover for Walsh and whoever else goes down - and please dont make me laugh talking about Dow as an AFL finals quality player...midfield depth is a worry as is ruck - having to play SOJ as a ruckman last year was just not right.

As the Club stated last year all year- "the list is far from complete" - big difference between falling into finals and being able to smash a top4 team - and that is the measure- when Carlton can beat a top4 team or any other genuine finalist by 5+ goals- THAT is when it is time to chest puff.

 

[thylacine60]

chest puff or sag with relief?.........I'll probably lean toward the latter............why do we do this again?

 

[Kruezing]

Good run with injuries means finals probably around 5 th to 8 th
Injuries like last season we’ll miss the 8 again …

 

[JustaBattler]

chest puff or sag with relief?.........I'll probably lean toward the latter............why do we do this again?

For me it will be chest puffing because as a supporter - I've never seen a Carlton flag win and I'm still getting over the knifing of Ratten - finally getting some belief back only because I know Vossy is a genuine hard nut.

 

[goreds]

We are talking 2023 ladder probabilities not 24/25 /26....

No way does Geelong destroy Richmond in grand final like they did to Sydney - who were (like Collingwood) massive flukey over achievers.

DO I think Richmond are flag certainties? NOPE
DO I think any team is a flag certainty ? NOPE

DO I think Carlton can match the 4 I nominated and beat them - we will see... a LOT has to go right and Carlton's game plan is heavily reliant on a midfield and KPF dominance- right as of '22- I see a lot of passenger type players at Carlton- too few up front that can win one on ones or kicks goals - this is what needs to be fixed to become a genuine contender - that and getting cover for Walsh and whoever else goes down - and please dont make me laugh talking about Dow as an AFL finals quality player...midfield depth is a worry as is ruck - having to play SOJ as a ruckman last year was just not right.

As the Club stated last year all year- "the list is far from complete" - big difference between falling into finals and being able to smash a top4 team - and that is the measure- when Carlton can beat a top4 team or any other genuine finalist by 5+ goals- THAT is when it is time to chest puff.

I have to ask.

Is it flukey or fitness or game plan??

Yes, the talent is not there but calling it flukey, I’m not so sure.

Being Sydney based, I can back up the fitness angle and the injury recovery angle but I would like your opinion.

 

[JustaBattler]

I have to ask.

Is it flukey or fitness or game plan??

Yes, the talent is not there but calling it flukey, I’m not so sure.

Being Sydney based, I can back up the fitness angle and the injury recovery angle but I would like your opinion.

All my view FWIW

Horse is as old fashioned as Vossy (meaning he doesn't suffer softies V Carlton which seemed to build a list around that as a key attribute for - decades) but has had the advantage of being a continuous coach well supported by a professional Club which knows what types of kids to draft and knows how to develop them afterwards underpinned by a home ground advantage and access to 'special' zones' after decades of COLA. I personally believe that Clubs situated in warmer/ milder winter climates will have less non collision type ( soft tissue and large muscle type ) injuries over time - but that is a non empirical POV unsupported by reference to any stats.

Sydney (IMO) outperformed last year to finish To4 ( Melbourne massively underperformed as did Richmond) - less 'flukey' than Collingwood observed H&A results - but credit to Collingwood they were able to win despite the injuries they copped - but I doubt that Collingwood will have such a run of close clutch wins again.

Re game plans - Sydney has evolved from 'kick it to Buddy' and is built around a hard running contested game - like all good teams are - but Sydney teams play half their matches on the SCG a very small ground (IMO another source advantage over the course of a year) - compared to the wider expanses of the MCG Sydney finds it harder to win.
Collingwood are straight cut and paste from Richmond's game plan - no surprises though - that is where the coach came from.

 

[DirtyLeeds]

1 Brisvagas
2 Baggers
3 Shockers
4 Dee's
5 Catters
6 Dawgs
7 Filth
8 Goldie

9 Tiggers (where they belong)
10 South
11 Aints
12 Power
13 *
14 Laides
15 Giants
16 Toasters
17 Dorks
18 Kanga's


Rare for previous year's finalists to be right up there, yes there have been a spate of back to back examples, but those teams were in the midst of their premiership window, Sydney and Geelong aren't those teams. Sydney were totally exposed in last year's GF and Geelong with all their "brilliant" albeit patchwork recruiting were building to that Premiership for five years. They'll drop, both, Bears will improve with Dunkley (begs the question what is going on at the Dawgs, second year in a row he wanted to move, * to Brissy!?!?!?). Dawgs and Filth have talent but not premiership material, Goldie will improve and surprise most teams with how well they play their home ground.

 

[I bleed Blue]

1. Carlton
2 to 18. Everyone who's not carlton

 

[thebluenewdeal]

Top 4
Brisbane
Geelong
Sydney
Melbourne

Next best
Fremantle
Richmond
Doggies
Collingwood

but they’re not all locks…
…the next crop
Blues
Port
Gold Coast
Adelaide

Bikini bottom
GWS
North
Saints
West Coast
Hawthorn


Oh, and *
Totally forgot about *

 

[SBYM]

chest puff or sag with relief?.........I'll probably lean toward the latter............why do we do this again?

I'm only in it so that one day I can tell some certain BF posters on the Main Board to GAGF.

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

Just don't see it with Richmond frankly.

Yes, they'll beat up some teams, no question. Not the better teams though.

Agree with another poster - Hopper negates the loss of Edwards. So no net gain.

Taranto, yep very good player but does he offset the decline in output from Cotchin (33 next year and already in clear decline), Martin (32 next year and also in clear decline) arguably the perennially injured Prestia (now 30) starting to slide?

Who are their match winners?

One KPF Lynch and undersized, getting on KPDs.....

 

[thylacine60]

no whistling through the gravestones for us......

"play em all, kill em all"........

with thanks to sam peckinpah
all rights reserved
no correspondence will be entered into
fees, terms, conditions apply

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Just don't see it with Richmond frankly.

Yes, they'll beat up some teams, no question. Not the better teams though.

Agree with another poster - Hopper negates the loss of Edwards. So no net gain.

Taranto, yep very good player but does he offset the decline in output from Cotchin (33 next year and already in clear decline), Martin (32 next year and also in clear decline) arguably the perennially injured Prestia (now 30) starting to slide?

Who are their match winners?

One KPF Lynch and undersized, getting on KPDs.....

Shai Bolton is an elite match winner and will be a top 20 player in the competition next year if he's not already.

Baker is a little gun. Vlaustin also very underrated. Short will move back to defence with the inclusion of Hopper and Taranto.

I think the keys for them are Martin, Riewoldt and Grimes. If they continue to decline at the same rate Richmond won't be a factor. If they play some good footy for extended periods they'll be right up there. Cotchin is too far gone though.

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

Shai Bolton is an elite match winner and will be a top 20 player in the competition next year if he's not already.

Baker is a little gun. Vlaustin also very underrated. Short will move back to defence with the inclusion of Hopper and Taranto.

I think the keys for them are Martin, Riewoldt and Grimes. If they continue to decline at the same rate Richmond won't be a factor. If they play some good footy for extended periods they'll be right up there. Cotchin is too far gone though.

Bolton's very (often very, very) good, but not an "elite match winner".

He neither kicks bags of goals nor turns games out of the midfield.

Yes, he does some very special things in the moment but.....

Baker, Vlaustin good solid players, yep. A grade, no.

And yes, I had overlooked Grimes seeming decline too....

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Bolton's very (often very, very) good, but not an "elite match winner".

He neither kicks bags of goals nor turns games out of the midfield.

Yes, he does some very special things in the moment but.....

Baker, Vlaustin good solid players, yep. A grade, no.

And yes, I had overlooked Grimes seeming decline too....

Wow. If we had a player like Bolton I'd pencil us in for the premiership. 41 goals with plenty of midfield minutes in 2022.

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

Wow. If we had a player like Bolton I'd pencil us in for the premiership. 41 goals with plenty of midfield minutes in 2022.

43 goals upon checking!

OK, his last 2 years have been very good. Plenty of I50s and goal assists too.... what we'd like to see from Martin.

Still don't think he's a match winner though and he does go missing...

EF vs Lions - 10 disposals, 2 goals, 0 tackles....

 

[dumb]

1st. i can't see how this side loses a game.

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

The Dogs - don't see them as a threat.

1. KPDs still an issue - they have Keath, Jones, Busslinger with Gardner and (arguably) Darcy as back ups.

Busslinger a lightweight kid, might be played a 3rd tall in his early years....but would get smashed as a true KPP right now.

Keath is a question mark against the uber tall Harry types or the agile Charlie types.

Jones? Can he get back to his best at 31+ and after a year out of the game - when he relies so heavily on his elite athleticism?

KPFs too a bit of an issue (but arguably a good issue).

Lobb and Naughton the two first choice forwards. Can JUH be played as a 3rd tall? Probably.

Where does that leave Darcy (and to a lesser degree Bruce)?

The midfield is their Achilles imo.

Some names for sure - quality types but no #6?

Bont, Macrae, Libba, Treloar and Smith - yep all good to elite, but the....? R Smith, Scott?

Libba is their extractor and he ain't getting bigger or younger!

An injury to this group and they're in real strife imo.

 

[Kismet]

Assuming a reasonable run with injuries, I'm tipping fourth. Acres was an important recruit, fixing a linkage issue and adding scoring power, and we didn't lose anyone of note Natural improvement in game plan cohesion should make a big difference; it should be remembered 2022 was Voss's first season so hopefully there's greater team unity.

It's hard to see downsides compared to last season.

 

[sregit]

Assuming a reasonable run with injuries, I'm tipping fourth. Acres was an important recruit, fixing a linkage issue and adding scoring power, and we didn't lose anyone of note Natural improvement in game plan cohesion should make a big difference; it should be remembered 2022 was Voss's first season so hopefully there's greater team unity.

It's hard to see downsides compared to last season.

Excuse an enemy supporter for chiming in here but Carlton has a list that is a walk up start for finals. To have missed last year is unbelievable. You may talk him up but Voss is a spud and the only real weakness I see in your setup. I expect the blues to end top 6 but if they don't I know where the fault will lie.

 

[macky99]

Excuse an enemy supporter for chiming in here but Carlton has a list that is a walk up start for finals. To have missed last year is unbelievable. You may talk him up but Voss is a spud and the only real weakness I see in your setup. I expect the blues to end top 6 but if they don't I know where the fault will lie.

Voss is a spud, it is probably worth putting some support on the table before rolling out such rubbish.

One of the best leaders of the modern era, wasn't successful in his initial stint as a coach, he was only early 30's with no experience.

Has a been very solid record as a Assistant coach & made a very strong impression last year, tough & hard and well respected across the entire club.

 

[BLUEALLTHRU]

Excuse an enemy supporter for chiming in here but Carlton has a list that is a walk up start for finals. To have missed last year is unbelievable. You may talk him up but Voss is a spud and the only real weakness I see in your setup. I expect the blues to end top 6 but if they don't I know where the fault will lie.

 

[carlton_99]

Excuse an enemy supporter for chiming in here but Carlton has a list that is a walk up start for finals. To have missed last year is unbelievable. You may talk him up but Voss is a spud and the only real weakness I see in your setup. I expect the blues to end top 6 but if they don't I know where the fault will lie.

I think you mean Voss is in "Spud"