2023 Ladder Predictor

[Vdubs]

Like it or not, diminishing expectations for likely events isn't as effective a coping mechanism as you think it is.

A 2 goal win and 8 point loss against Port and Collingwood has us well prepared for this challenge.

Season completely alive and exciting.

Balance is important.
I have seen enough over the last 6 decades to KNOW that expecting wins is fraught with disappointment, and even just observing our team this year, we are not the scary proposition we were in 22, 21, 20. We've lost 2 at home, and I can't recall a winning 4q effort yet this year.
Saints will be 6 points up on us next week.
I know you want to portray this sense of excitement and optimism, but to some of us it is unfounded, and I know what we did last year, and what we've done for a decade, but this season IS different, results reveal this. While it could fall into place the way you describe and hope for, many things other than us winning our last ( challenging enough)2 games have to occur.
I think it's reasonable to not expect that, and to hope for it as much as you do.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

1 out of 2. Saints are killing them.
How do you see the last 2 games panning out?
I think next week could be a L, and our last home game, tough, but should be a W.

If i had to predict
Saints and port win today
We win our last 2
Saints lose to bris
Gws beat ess and lose to carl
Ess lose both games
Adel beat wce and not syd
Syd beat adel not melb
Carl win both
Wbd beat eagles not us

Which means
Carl 5th
Us 6th
Syd 7th
Wbd 8th (% sneaks them in)

If syd beat melb they will be 6th and us 7th but either way we make it.
If saints or giants win on road dogs miss.

 

[Vdubs]

Yes but now the dogs cant get to 50 points without going through us.

We can get to 50.

Based on winning next week- that will be a massive challenge, Apprentice come Master v the Master, and an away game where the pressure is on us, and we do not have great form against small forwards.
I think next week this time is the time to spruik our chances

 

[Mr Meow]

Balance is important.
I have seen enough over the last 6 decades to KNOW that expecting wins is fraught with disappointment, and even just observing our team this year, we are not the scary proposition we were in 22, 21, 20. We've lost 2 at home, and I can't recall a winning 4q effort yet this year.
Saints will be 6 points up on us next week.
I know you want to portray this sense of excitement and optimism, but to some of us it is unfounded, and I know what we did last year, and what we've done for a decade, but this season IS different, results reveal this. While it could fall into place the way you describe and hope for, many things other than us winning our last ( challenging enough)2 games have to occur.
I think it's reasonable to not expect that, and to hope for it as much as you do.

We weren't scary at all in 2020 and 2021. We had less injuries and won the lion share of the close ones. 2022 fair enough.

As far as expecting wins, I'll never understand the logic behind expecting unexpected events. It's obvious that upsets happen each and every week, but it's also obvious that both sides playing to 80% of their potential next week results in a Geelong win. All I'm doing is stating my belief that with the season on the line, our boys will fire.

Regarding the bolded, I don't believe that you give up on a side that has been competitive when the season is alive. Oddly this isn't a consensus view but I'm happy to stand by myself on that one. We have been very privileged to be at the very top end of the ladder for a long time, but I remember being excited 2000-2005 in the years we were thereabouts. Excitement isn't solely contained to being the premiership favourite for me, but you do you.

 

[Vdubs]

We weren't scary at all in 2020 and 2021. We had less injuries and won the lion share of the close ones. 2022 fair enough.

As far as expecting wins, I'll never understand the logic behind expecting unexpected events. It's obvious that upsets happen each and every week, but it's also obvious that both sides playing to 80% of their potential next week results in a Geelong win. All I'm doing is stating my belief that with the season on the line, our boys will fire.

Regarding the bolded, I don't believe that you give up on a side that has been competitive when the season is alive. Oddly this isn't a consensus view but I'm happy to stand by myself on that one. We have been very privileged to be at the very top end of the ladder for a long time, but I remember being excited 2000-2005 in the years we were thereabouts. Excitement isn't solely contained to being the premiership favourite for me, but you do you.

Totally agree with the bolded. I said at the start of this season I was well satiated after what we have been given, and I stand by that. I also think the chase is sometimes more enthralling than the catch (being on top) and when we bought our SC memberships, it was the year Ayres and Colbert left for Bomber and Benny. No imminent or recent success. So it is not all about being top dog for me, but reading many posts here, it's almost a fait accompli that we beat Saints and Bulldogs, and that I can disagree with.

 

[catempire]

Hey Vdubs. Tigers can’t make it. Told you ten weeks ago they no good!

 

[Vdubs]

Hey Vdubs. Tigers can’t make it. Told you ten weeks ago they no good!

Excellent. They could have helped us today, but no.
It does look as if they have tossed it in for the year.
Bizarre it be if we finish above Hawks and Tigers, but not in the 8.

 

[Mr Meow]

Beating St Kilda is no guarantee... They do play Marvel bloody well and play it regularly..

They are 0-3 there against top 4 teams. Our best is around that level. Play well and we win.

 

[Vdubs]

They are 0-3 there against top 4 teams. Our best is around that level. Play well and we win.

Sure, but the pressure is more on us. If Saints win, they stay in the 8, simple. And then we can not get in. That's what it amounts to. And Saints with King in form are a more difficult prospect at Marvel.

 

[Mr Meow]

Sure, but the pressure is more on us. If Saints win, they stay in the 8, simple. And then we can not get in. That's what it amounts to. And Saints with King in form are a more difficult prospect at Marvel.

it's an elimination final for both sides because they aren't beating Brisbane at the Gabba.

The side clinging onto a spot in the 8 certainly faces as much pressure.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Sure, but the pressure is more on us. If Saints win, they stay in the 8, simple. And then we can not get in. That's what it amounts to. And Saints with King in form are a more difficult prospect at Marvel.

The pressure is on them too.
They wont realistically beat bris so if they lose to us they are probably missing the 8. Its an elim final for both sides.

 

[Vdubs]

it's an elimination final for both sides because they aren't beating Brisbane at the Gabba.

The side clinging onto a spot in the 8 certainly faces as much pressure.

True that.
They are 6 points up on us, that is their advantage.
Catch us and beat us if you can.

 

[Vdubs]

The pressure is on them too.
They wont realistically beat bris so if they lose to us they are probably missing the 8. Its an elim final for both sides.

Yep, Lions will be keen to finish #2 at worst for that home final

 

[Vdubs]

One thing in our favour is that we beat Doggies at Marvel, who are probably a better team than Saints?

 

[catstorm]

As it stands right now I have used the AFL ladder predictor and if we win our last two we would be massively unlikely to miss out.

 

[00VicWard001]

I’d rather not make finals than just limp in. I can’t see us doing much damage this year anyway. Not saying we should just roll over but even the most one eyed supporter would have to admit it would take an epic run to go deep from here with current form and injuries.

Everyone is limping into this finals series. Anyone can win it from here.

 

[00VicWard001]

Like it or not, diminishing expectations for likely events isn't as effective a coping mechanism as you think it is.

Demolishing Richmond at Marvel is something the Bulldogs did as recently as a week ago and look how awful they were today. It's not a form indicator at all.

A 2 goal win and 8 point loss against Port and Collingwood has us well prepared for this challenge.

Season completely alive and exciting.

True, it is actually exciting!

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

Can we make it if we only win 1?

 

[Munich]

Can we make it if we only win 1?

Don't think so.

 

[catempire]

Can we make it if we only win 1?

Yes, although extremely unlikely:

• GWS and Essendon draw
• Swans d Crows
• Eagles d Bulldogs

 

[feelthecool]

I think this is good. See how much players want it. It's in their own hands. All year they been lacking a bit of Hart and desire.

 

[Goggin Our Best]

I think the best thing and exciting thing clearly is the Cats are still alive - Hawks beating WB was a great result for us - because it eliminates a variable - alah win the final 2 games and we have to finish above WB

I think it is exciting Geel are still alive - and after last years flag - right at this point we still have a free throw at the stumps

The key to that Stk game - seeing that they have got a Glass Jaw and they aernt much good - but dont let them get out to an early lead - and they did lead Carlton 8 goals to 5 at one point - Geel dont want to do that

Big 1st qtr from Geel and dictate the game

 

[Generalissimo]

Let's assume we win both our remaining games. We need to leapfrog three teams above us to make the finals.

*Bulldogs are 2 points ahead of us. If we beat them and St Kilda, we pass them even though they have a guaranteed 4 points next week against the dismal, putrid Eagles.

*GWS are two points ahead of us, as are Essendon, and they play each other next week. That means winning both our games sees us pass at least one of them. They play Carlton and Collingwood, respectively, in the final round so even the winner of GWS/Essendon is catchable.

* Sydney are four points ahead of us. If they lose to Adelaide over there or Melbourne at home, our better percentage should see us leapfrog them.

* Saints are 6 points clear of us. If we beat them next week and they lose to Brissie up there, we finish ahead of them.

* Carlton are 8 points clear of us, but we have better percentage. They probably won't lose to the Gold Coast and GWS though, but we should be hoping Essendon beats GWS next week and Gold Coast pulls off a miracle just on the off chance.


Win both our games, and two of the three teams we need to pass are locked in (Dogs, and the loser of Ess/GWS). Saints probably won't beat the Lions up there, and Sydney winning both of their remaining matches is 50/50 at best. The winner of Ess/GWS needs an upset victory in the last round to stay ahead of us. Carlton probably can't be caught.

Win our last two games and the likelihood of at least one result from other matches falling our way is pretty high.

JUST WIN FARKEN.

 

[Cataholic]

Let's assume we win both our remaining games. We need to leapfrog three teams above us to make the finals.

*Bulldogs are 2 points ahead of us. If we beat them and St Kilda, we pass them even though they have a guaranteed 4 points next week against the dismal, putrid Eagles.

*GWS are two points ahead of us, as are Essendon, and they play each other next week. That means winning both our games sees us pass at least one of them. They play Carlton and Collingwood, respectively, in the final round so even the winner of GWS/Essendon is catchable.

* Sydney are four points ahead of us. If they lose to Adelaide over there or Melbourne at home, our better percentage should see us leapfrog them.

* Saints are 6 points clear of us. If we beat them next week and they lose to Brissie up there, we finish ahead of them.

* Carlton are 8 points clear of us, but we have better percentage. They probably won't lose to the Gold Coast and GWS though, but we should be hoping Essendon beats GWS next week and Gold Coast pulls off a miracle just on the off chance.


Win both our games, and two of the three teams we need to pass are locked in (Dogs, and the loser of Ess/GWS). Saints probably won't beat the Lions up there, and Sydney winning both of their remaining matches is 50/50 at best. The winner of Ess/GWS needs an upset victory in the last round to stay ahead of us. Carlton probably can't be caught.

Win our last two games and the likelihood of at least one result from other matches falling our way is pretty high.

JUST WIN FARKEN.

Our task has been complicated by the probable loss of Stanley and Rohan........

 

[cats_09]

Grand final rematch anyone...