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2023 Ladder Predictor
- Thread starter allrighty
- Start date
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Shoosh, Jimmy!
Nerd alert! But just thinking ahead and exactly how much harder our road is if we finish outside of the top 4 as opposed to 4th (anything higher seems a bit fanciful). Bolded are the "Bulldogs '16, GWS '19 and Bulldogs '21 type finals run to a GF outside of the top 4. Then, in italics the same version but if we'd jumped to 4th (so depending on where we were, 4th team would fall to 5th, 5th to 6th etc).
Squiggle simulations usually have us finishing 6th with the prospect of a finals run something like:
-St Kilda @ MCG
-Melbourne @ MCG
-Collingwood @ MCG
-Brisbane @ MCG
Whereas if we did sneak into 4th in this projection it would be:
-Collingwood @ MCG
-Win = Melbourne @ MCG and Brisbane or Collingwood @ MCG
-Lose = Port @ MCG, Brisbane @ Gabba and Collingwood @ MCG
Now that's just one version (5000 simulations). I tried two more and got the same ladder. 4th time lucky and some minor changes, Geelong are now 7th, with a finals run like:
-Bulldogs @ MCG
-Port @ AO
-Collingwood @ MCG
-Brisbane @ MCG
Sneaking into 4th for the above would mean:
-Collingwood @ MCG
-Win = Port @ MCG and Brisbane or Collingwood @ MCG
-Lose = Melbourne @ MCG, Brisbane @ Gabba, Collingwood @ MCG
One last time, Geelong are up to 5th! A run of:
-Essendon @ MCG
-Port @ AO
-Melbourne @ MCG
-Collingwood @ MCG
Sneaking into 4th instead would've made it
-Collingwood @ MCG
-Win, then Brisbane @ MCG and Collingwood or Melbourne @ MCG
-Lose, then Port @ MCG, Melbourne @ MCG and Collingwood @ MCG
What was the point of all this? Well, I think Geelong at their 2022 best could handle these consecutive finals. We may have a trip to Adelaide thrown in there to overcome, Richmond style in 2020. And we might have to knock over Collingwood in a PF rather than a GF, but get rewarded with a team like Brisbane in the GF. Are the examples where we finish 4th that much easier? Only really if we can knock off Collingwood in week 1. But even then I think there's a good chance we'd have to beat Collingwood a second time after first holding off a team like Brisbane, Port or Melbourne in a PF at the G. Lose and its almost certainly a PF at the Gabba or AO anyway before facing Collingwood in the GF.
Do I still want top 4? Of course. But it still seems bizarre to me just how much more difficult people grade a run from 5th or 6th this season. An out of form Geelong stumbles in both scenarios, Geelong at their best a good chance to overcome either.
Squiggle simulations usually have us finishing 6th with the prospect of a finals run something like:
-St Kilda @ MCG
-Melbourne @ MCG
-Collingwood @ MCG
-Brisbane @ MCG
Whereas if we did sneak into 4th in this projection it would be:
-Collingwood @ MCG
-Win = Melbourne @ MCG and Brisbane or Collingwood @ MCG
-Lose = Port @ MCG, Brisbane @ Gabba and Collingwood @ MCG
Now that's just one version (5000 simulations). I tried two more and got the same ladder. 4th time lucky and some minor changes, Geelong are now 7th, with a finals run like:
-Bulldogs @ MCG
-Port @ AO
-Collingwood @ MCG
-Brisbane @ MCG
Sneaking into 4th for the above would mean:
-Collingwood @ MCG
-Win = Port @ MCG and Brisbane or Collingwood @ MCG
-Lose = Melbourne @ MCG, Brisbane @ Gabba, Collingwood @ MCG
One last time, Geelong are up to 5th! A run of:
-Essendon @ MCG
-Port @ AO
-Melbourne @ MCG
-Collingwood @ MCG
Sneaking into 4th instead would've made it
-Collingwood @ MCG
-Win, then Brisbane @ MCG and Collingwood or Melbourne @ MCG
-Lose, then Port @ MCG, Melbourne @ MCG and Collingwood @ MCG
What was the point of all this? Well, I think Geelong at their 2022 best could handle these consecutive finals. We may have a trip to Adelaide thrown in there to overcome, Richmond style in 2020. And we might have to knock over Collingwood in a PF rather than a GF, but get rewarded with a team like Brisbane in the GF. Are the examples where we finish 4th that much easier? Only really if we can knock off Collingwood in week 1. But even then I think there's a good chance we'd have to beat Collingwood a second time after first holding off a team like Brisbane, Port or Melbourne in a PF at the G. Lose and its almost certainly a PF at the Gabba or AO anyway before facing Collingwood in the GF.
Do I still want top 4? Of course. But it still seems bizarre to me just how much more difficult people grade a run from 5th or 6th this season. An out of form Geelong stumbles in both scenarios, Geelong at their best a good chance to overcome either.
Vdubs
Hall of Famer
Top 8 is a realistic challenge after our next month.
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- Jun 11, 2013
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i re did my ladder prediction this morning. Assuming we lose to all of Dogs, Port and Demons. (I can't see us winning any of them until we get some serious personnel back) We basically need to not drop another game just to make the 8.
I am giving up on success this season. This will make it easier to enjoy the rest of the season having altered my expectations. I hope they don't just play the kids, when players start to come back.
I am giving up on success this season. This will make it easier to enjoy the rest of the season having altered my expectations. I hope they don't just play the kids, when players start to come back.
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- Sep 18, 2014
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The dream for B2B was there but that’s disappeared. I agree, premiership success is not happening this season so should just enjoy the year for what it is and hopefully some young blokes can continue to develop so we can see a glimpse of the future.
Injuries have just crucified us this season, can’t get a settled team on the park and the form of our experienced players is just way too flaky.
2022 was incredibly special, hardly any teams will top that, a 16 game winning streak to win the flag by 81pts.
Injuries have just crucified us this season, can’t get a settled team on the park and the form of our experienced players is just way too flaky.
2022 was incredibly special, hardly any teams will top that, a 16 game winning streak to win the flag by 81pts.
I dunno. Bulldogs couldn't beat Gold Coast and Melbourne couldn't beat Freo at the G. Port scraped by against Essendon at home the other week. We have a real tendency to overrate other teams when in reality only Collingwood look truly imperious.
Form rut of 3 weeks may end as it did earlier - Danger and Rohan back for Bulldogs would help.
Things look bad now but 4 other teams in the top 8 stumbled this week as well. We may be battling with teams like Freo and Adelaide for places in the 8 - but so will the Bulldogs and St Kilda. If yesterday was a GMHBA aberration and we have Dangerfield for the rest, we can retain a strong record there. It's really just pointless speculating on a season being over until it actually is. Still plenty to play for and a long, long way to go. As unlikely as it seems, putting a few wins together could get us up to 4th-6th.
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Bumpity bump.
Some tough games coming up but with Danger, Holmes and Duncan back we could surprise a few.
Find a way to put 4 more wins together (Port away, Melbourne home, Sydney away, NM home) and there's a very good chance we will jump Melbourne into 4th. Take 3 and the chase is very much alive. 2 and it's probably down to scrapping to qualify for an EF.
If I had to guess. I'd say the most likely outcome is:
The first group is obviously playing tough opposition where we will be moderate to heavy underdogs. The second group we should come in as marginal to moderate favourites. For the last group, we should be heavy favourites.
Given we have a good percentage the above would have us finish 7th with two more wins required to finish top 4 and two less to not make the finals. If we make top 4 with a healthy list we'd likely be the form team and might even be premiership favourites (still likely Collingwood though).
- 2 out of 3 losses against Port (A Oval), Brisbane (Gabba), and Collingwood (MCG).
- 3 out 5 wins against St Kilda (Marvel), Sydney (SCG), Melbourne (GMHBA), Port (GMHBA), Bulldogs (GMHBA)
- 3 out of 3 wins against North (GMHBA), Essendon (GMHBA), Freo (GMHBA)
The first group is obviously playing tough opposition where we will be moderate to heavy underdogs. The second group we should come in as marginal to moderate favourites. For the last group, we should be heavy favourites.
Given we have a good percentage the above would have us finish 7th with two more wins required to finish top 4 and two less to not make the finals. If we make top 4 with a healthy list we'd likely be the form team and might even be premiership favourites (still likely Collingwood though).
catempire
Premium Platinum
Playing the odds:
Gives us:
Interestingly, there’s not much to be gained from winning an extra game or two. There’s also possibly not much to lose by losing an extra game. This might explain why Scott seems so relaxed about things.
- Cats lose to Port (AO), Lions and Pies
- Cats win 8 others: 6 at home + Swans + Saints
- assume for simplicity all other games highest ranked team wins
Gives us:
Interestingly, there’s not much to be gained from winning an extra game or two. There’s also possibly not much to lose by losing an extra game. This might explain why Scott seems so relaxed about things.
I still think Melbourne have some stumbles left in them. If they lose next week Vs Collingwood and then Vs Geelong after their bye, the chase is on.
Melbourne def by Collingwood
Port def by Geelong
Geelong def Melbourne
Would level us on points with the Demons.
5 of our last 9 games at home.
I'd back us in from there.
The Port game looms large for us to build momentum.
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catempire
Premium Platinum
That’s only 1 result different from my predictor so would still have us a game and % behind Melbourne by season end. I also think Port is a long shot for us.
Yeah I think we just have differing opinions on how good Melbourne are, and how good we will be with a few more players back.
I think they're more likely to lose to St Kilda or Sydney away than we are full strength. Who knows as far as % by the end of the season.
IF we beat Port and Melbourne, I wouldn't be discounting our chances against Collingwood or Brisbane. Our best can still be as good as 2022s I reckon.
We'll see. Port were gettable in a few of their home games. If we lose that one then top 4 becomes tough.
catempire
Premium Platinum
Yep. I haven’t really attempted to guess who will stay strong and who will slide. If pushed I’d say the top 4 is locked and the bottom half of the eight is where the action will be. St Kilda, for example, could drop right away given recent form.
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catempire
Premium Platinum
Higher team on the ladder winning all games…
catempire
Premium Platinum
Higher team on the ladder wins all except Cats win all at GHMBA…
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catempire
Premium Platinum
Again I make the point it basically doesn’t matter how other teams above us fare.
Top 4 is gone so we are scrapping for a spot in the 8 and whether we finish 5th or 8th makes little difference to matchups.
First final will be an EF in Vic, if we make it.
Top 4 is gone so we are scrapping for a spot in the 8 and whether we finish 5th or 8th makes little difference to matchups.
First final will be an EF in Vic, if we make it.
Good point although any team that could conceivably drop out we would want to drop games - unless against the sides in 9th-12th. Ie Bulldogs, Essendon or St Kilda losing a few would potentially be helpful. But Adelaide, Gold Coast and now Richmond losing are probably bigger priorities.
catempire
Premium Platinum
No, that’s my point. Even if those above us lost a few we would still likely face an EF against a Vic team.
It is no longer realistic that we will face a home EF against, for example, Gold Coast, Freo or Adelaide.