List Mgmt. 2023 List Management

[Arr0w]

Have been debating if I should offer lists for discussion or if it was a little disrespectful.

Absolutely concur with the first four. A bit rough on a couple, but the list now becomes about regeneration and sensible management. Plow has been a great servant in hard times. To me his only salvation is if both Gov and Marchy have another injury plagued season, and then we have Kemp and possibly Akuei to fill the role.

Cuners has had another injury pre season so signs are not good for his last chance. Even fit, he is not a lock anymore with our recent acquisitions. Love Marchy, but needs to be available for the majority of the season. Philp needs a massive season with injury issues and not establishing himself in the top team. Honey is also in that category, but I expect one of them to survive. Gov is a double edged sword, multi edged even. Injury, price tag and regular rumours of his wife wanting to go home. Even a quality season may not be enough to continue his tenure if he is not amenable to a pay drop.

While the TDK debate continues to play out, we cannot bank on keeping him. I like to think he wants to stay, but the Cats have some excellent carrots to dangle with their surf coast real estate connections.

I cannot see S.Durdin under pressure with just a rookie spot. Kempy not contracted beyond the year, but if his trajectory continues, he is as safe as houses, unless he chooses to leave for opportunity.

While I agree 7-9 will be under consideration, It would take an abominable season by all to be parted with. A detailed look at the contracted players on the list find very, very few in danger of delisting in the foreseeable future. We will retain a couple of the “at risk” players, if for no other purpose than to have someone left to delist the following season. Only a bit of creative accounting moving a couple of players to the rookie list and promoting rookies who will be “in the gun” in two seasons will alleviate this if we cut deeply at the end of 2023.

Many of our OOC players, are coming off decent contracts, that also includes Dow, so I believe we will have ample coin for re-signing players and enough to target a mid range FA/OOC

I suspect a portion of our OOCs, possibly oldish players, would also have game triggers, so even if they remain fit, may not gain another contract

The number of 7-9 changes might be the same, the names come end of year could be a surprise

 

[teddy-hopkins]

I think some tough calls will be made, which will also include injury prone types

Sure to cop some resistance to the following names, but unless they either improve and or stay on the park, they are most likely gone

On output: Dow, Fogarty, Plowman, E Curnow

Injury prone: Cuners, Marchbank or Gov, Philp

Then, possible trades for players that get surpassed

7-9 changes again

Agree with all of that except the last bit. No reason to delist 9 players unless we're saving cap space. I wouldn't be surprised if we delist as few as 4.

Philp, Ed, Fog, Plow top of the list - but a long way to go.

What a team we could be without injury prone players!!! Either Gov, Marchy, Cunners stay fit or we allocate that salary cap elsewhere.

 

[Arr0w]

Agree with all of that except the last bit. No reason to delist 9 players unless we're saving cap space. I wouldn't be surprised if we delist as few as 4.

Philp, Ed, Fog, Plow top of the list - but a long way to go.

What a team we could be without injury prone players!!! Either Gov, Marchy, Cunners stay fit or we allocate that salary cap elsewhere.

I think it will be within that range and they won't be all delistings

Yeap, Gov, Marchbank, Cuners, Martin, Williams, all fit and firing would be awesome

 

[teddy-hopkins]

[QUOTE="Arr0w, post: 77740205, member: 168273"] I think it will be within that range and they won't be all delistings Yeap, Gov, Marchbank, Cuners, Martin, Williams, all fit and firing would be awesome [/QUOTE]

Williams not really in the delisting debate- but yeah would be handy if that $800k chunk of our cap could cop one tackle without getting up limping in the season. I like Williams a lot. Such an important player.

But if they all can stay fit....
Could Doc be forced onto a wing this year?

Mega log jam back there with Marchy, Gov, Williams, Saad, Weit and Young all pretty much walk ups.

Add in Newy, Kemp, Boyd, Cowan to the mix. Not sure Doc would spend much time in the back line.

 

[BlueTongue]

[QUOTE="Arr0w, post: 77740205, member: 168273"] I think it will be within that range and they won't be all delistings Yeap, Gov, Marchbank, Cuners, Martin, Williams, all fit and firing would be awesome [/QUOTE]

Williams not really in the delisting debate- but yeah would be handy if that $800k chunk of our cap could cop one tackle without getting up limping in the season. I like Williams a lot. Such an important player.

But if they all can stay fit....
Could Doc be forced onto a wing this year?

Mega log jam back there with Marchy, Gov, Williams, Saad, Weit and Young all pretty much walk ups.

Add in Newy, Kemp, Boyd, Cowan to the mix. Not sure Doc would spend much time in the back line.

I’d like to see Doc out on the wing or as a relief on baller more, but what I think he does best down back is intercept and direct traffic.

Also Hoping Williams can play as a mid/fwd, because we could really use his bullet passes up fwd.

 

[haveago]

Our list is now cherry ripe and IMO we have finally unloaded all the players that were simply
not up to being a part of No.17.
Of course we have depth players that we hope will not be required as you must .


I want to thank players like Newnes , Williamson and Setterfield for their time with us but we have gone past them.

I think we are being very kind to Ed as well and this selection shows me the Club has a heart and is re paying past loyalty.

On paper and 2022 performances have proven that with some much overdue luck with injuries our list is as good or better than any .

Cant wait for 2023 to kick off and wishing Sam Walsh a full and uncomplicated recovery.

 

[The Bighouse]

Agree with all of that except the last bit. No reason to delist 9 players unless we're saving cap space. I wouldn't be surprised if we delist as few as 4.

Philp, Ed, Fog, Plow top of the list - but a long way to go.

What a team we could be without injury prone players!!! Either Gov, Marchy, Cunners stay fit or we allocate that salary cap elsewhere.

Not out of the realms with the uncontracted players (18), and their injury history for a lot of them. We did have 8 off the list last season but that includes LJ, 6 in '21 and 10 in '20 & '19. In saying that, the club is/was looking at stability but sometimes changes need to be made for demographics or positional.

JSOS, Dow, Motlop, Fogarty, McGovern, TDK, Docherty, Kemp, Plowman, Marchbank, Newman, Pittonet, DC, Young, Philp, Ed, Honey, S.Durdin, & Akuei (not really a factor as a Cat B)

There's 12 which would be under the microscope for one reason or another, though a number of taller backs within which would take some list management hits with our already lower count of KPP. Fingers crossed a lot of them get a good run at it this year and only form guides the end of season ins/outs with an improvement from our review/look into the high performance / injury management pulling through as well.

Wouldn't expect to lose any contracted through trades with the culture/buy-in that we're building but TDK and maybe McGovern, if his contract offer is deemed unders from his current overs, + Dow, Kemp & Philp (opportunity) could be on the OOC trading floor.

 

[bluesDeluxe]

Just looking at our list and who is out of contract for next year (Carlton Football Club Team List and Contract Status), I'm finding it hard to say goodbye to anyone else apart from the players that I've crossed out below:



2023
1. Jack Silvagni
2. Paddy Dow ?
3. Jesse Motlop ?
8. Lachie Fogarty ?
11. Mitch McGovern
12. Tom De Koning
15. Sam Docherty
17. Brodie Kemp
20. Lachie Plowman
22. Caleb Marchbank
24. Nic Newman
27. Mark Pittonett
28. David Cuningham
33. Lewis Young
34. Sam Philp
35. Ed Curnow (Rookie)
36. Josh Honey
38. Sam Durdin (MSD Rookie)
41. Domanic Akuei (2nd Year Cat B Rookie)

IMO gone are Nos;

2, 8, 36.

1 of 20 or 22

1 of 28 or 34

12 will ask for a trade

 

[thylacine60]

honey?

 

[Arr0w]

Think Honey will be safe

 

[Coona Blues]

Think Honey will be safe

Realistically Honey is right in the discussion. Has to stay on the park and cement a role. I would love him to get a solid season and have some auditions up the ground. Strikes me as one that could excel behind the ball. While there is a defensive log jam at the moment, there will be need for generation next in 2-4 years. If we are in the window, we need seamless transition, not reactive trading and drafting. Honey may have trouble obtaining a permanent best 22 position, but could become a robust utility option at the very least.

 

[Arr0w]

Realistically Honey is right in the discussion. Has to stay on the park and cement a role. I would love him to get a solid season and have some auditions up the ground. Strikes me as one that could excel behind the ball. While there is a defensive log jam at the moment, there will be need for generation next in 2-4 years. If we are in the window, we need seamless transition, not reactive trading and drafting. Honey may have trouble obtaining a permanent best 22 position, but could become a robust utility option at the very least.

Agree that he needs to stay healthy, but given his age, I'd say they will at least give him another year.

Certainly easier playing behind the ball, but Honey has that xfactor to turn a game, even though he will never be a high possession player

 

[Blue Flame]

honey?

Yes sweetie?

 

[Coona Blues]

Bloody rain keeping me housebound so let’s take this futures spitballing to another level.

The over riding factor is that we must create three National draft vacancies, or offset with rookie elevations each and every year. Mass changes in any year now creates problems in subsequent years.

We can remove 12 players from any delisting or trading discussions due to contract status AND inherent value.
McKat, C.Curnow, Cripps, Williams (minuscule chance of salary dump if can’t get on park), Walsh, Cerra, Kennedy, Acres, Weitering, Fisher, Hewett, Saad.

Out of contract at the end of 2024 we have in my opinion, required players who will be going nowhere. Headed by C.Durdin, Mirkov, Carroll and this year’s draftees Hollands, Cowan, Lemmey and Binns. Jack Martin will come under scrutiny if his time on ground remains compromised, otherwise will probably revert to a year by year scenario.

This leaves O’Brien, Cottrell, Owies and Boyd in discussions. Popular thought would have Boyd safe, but does have to consolidate in the coming season. Needs to be promoted to the main list, as does Mirkov at the end of this season (assuming mid season draftee year counted as one). Our massive investment in outside midfielders, with even Cowan potentially able to play wing, suggests LOB and Cotts are regarded as more depth than long term best 22. Both have traits that give them a chance of changing that perception. I suggest they have long term value and remain safe going forward providing we do not become desperate for list spots.

Pertinent to discuss management of our rookies here, as we clearly want to retain a model with the maximum six category A rookies. Boyd and Mirkov will need promotion, meaning that ideally we need a minimum of five main list changes. Should multiples of our injury prone, last chance types like Marchbank, Cuningham, Philp, Hiney and even McGovern depart, we may require some creative accounting to enlarge our rookie numbers. We would not want to draft more than a couple of rookies in one go.

I see Nic Newman as a prime candidate to be pushed to the rookie list at season’s end. Still a viable best 22 player, but at the age where he is not attractive for other clubs to poach. He is clearly on a path to the coaching ranks, already on the AFLW coaching panel, as well as assisting the seconds durin injury layoffs. It would be hard to see Marchy rotated to the rookie list as a dummy delisting would surely result in an opposition club snapping him up even after an indifferent year.
It is not inconceivable that possible delistees like Honey, Philp, Cuningham, Fogarty, especially Plowman and even possibly Dow could revert to the rookie list if we have a considerable number of vacancies. The other Cat A rookie for discussion is Sam Durdin. With the demise of McDonald, Durds becomes our mature depth KPP. A mature, solid player without pretension, he will be a valuable back up for the foreseeable future. Highly conceivable we angle to keep him as depth for four or five years while we sort out a progression plan for our key pillars. Not raising Dom Akuei in these possibilities as yet. The kid has plenty of ability, but has a long way to go to advance some nice cameos in to a game making him a viable AFL option. Would love him to elevate and grow our KPP options, but is more possible than probable at this stage.

So, to our out of contract players.

Little or no doubt Docherty, Silvagni, Motlop, Pittonet and Young will be retained on suitable multi year contracts. Newman will be retained in some capacity. S.Durdin and Akuei covered earlier. Ed Curnow already moved down Coast is almost certainly in his last year.

Kemp is the other almost certain retention. If he continues his trajectory will be smashing the door down for a best 22 spot. The strategic sub adjustment will give him a viable path to the top team as well with his versatility. Only leaves if his own choice for opportunity.

McGovern has been covered comprehensively on these pages. Another injury plagued season and he will be gone. A decent output will still result in a reduced offer. A bit to play out yet but best 22 if stays fit.

De Koning remains the big debate. I have preferred to think he is more likely to stay, however I was going to suggest the Cats have some nice young rucks on the list. That back fired as such. Toby Conway a great prospect, but still 19, forward/ruck Shannon Neale is more the Hawkins replacement. Ceglar, Stanley and Blicavs for all intents and purposes start the coming season as 32 year olds. We all know the Cats recruitment is second to none. I hadn’t previously been panicking over TDK’s contract, but have changed my ideas in the last few minutes. Lloyd Meek traded back to Victoria in the off season, but not to Geelong who need a mature ruck. The Cats have something “up their sleeve”, I am suddenly very nervous. Sean Darcy remains in contract until the end of 2024, so be afraid.

So the discussion comes to Dow, Fogarty, Plowman, Marchbank, Cuningham, Philp and Honey. While unlikely, it is not inconceivable that all could be gone if injuries continue to plague some.

Before I individualise let’s establish a minimum of three changes is required each year. Our age demographic suggests Ed’s departure is imminent, however Father Time will not necessarily go past any others on our list within three years. Our next oldest is Newman who turned 30 yesterday. As above, I suspect he will finish his time on our rookie list taking him out of the required main list turnover quota. Doc, Saad, Plow, Williams, McGovern, Martin, Cripps, Acres and Hewett are our 27 plus brigade. How many are we quitting in the next three years? McGovern, Martin and Hewett all have body questions, as does Williams who has a longer contract and absolutely stays the duration barring a massive salary dump.

So on age Plowman enters the discussion. He has at least three third talls in front of him, and we have started on generation next with Cowan and likely Boyd. To me, he only stays if Marchy and Gov fail to come up. Let’s continue with the “sound” players. Paddy Dow’s contract has hurt us, it is minimum $400k and some reports have it higher. Our midfield hierarchy continues to go past him, despite the departure of Setters. For mine he only stays if it is as a rookie or maybe on minimum chips if we can find five or more main list departures elsewhere.

Fogarty is well regarded, but remains an undersized inside mid rather than a small forward option. Has has significant injury down time and currently rehabbing from a back op. Will need a massive year to survive the cut. If Marchbank and Cuningham can get significant game time, they are quality players CM best 22, no debate, if Cuners is not walk up best 22, he DC. The final two for consideration are Philp and Honey. Most supporters would like both to realise their potential and have them smashing the door down for best 22. Their ages would make them excellent to retain. If they can put some quality games together at the lower level, I can see efforts to retain them on the rookie list and some juggling with Cotts and LOB being promoted to make space, rather than waiting a year for a probable/possible promotion. We need “expendable” players on the main list every year, I expect normal attrition and progression to return after the next three off seasons, but until then spots will be at an absolute premium.

My best guess has

Dow, Plowman, Fogarty an Curnow (rookie) as being gone.

We need to promote two rookies, so could at a pinch just make one National draft selection and meet requirements. That is an unlikely scenario. For the record, Mirkov and Boyd require promotion. We would be expected to take at least two ND picks, likely more given the commitment to the draft this year flagged as having a list balancing element.

I also “budget” for two of Cuningham, McGovern, Marchbank, Philp and Honey to be removed from the main list. Rookie list rotations could be in play. The variable is if trades enter the equation, I am talking McGovern and unfortunately De Koning here, with a slim chance of Kemp who I am backing for a breakout of sorts.

If TDK does choose to go, we could be in the market for a high level free agent or trade. I shudder to think of the reaction here, but I have previously discounted the info due to salary cap restraints. I have had two sources strongly suggest that Ben McKay will join his brother next year through free agency. (would release Young to play second ruck if becomes needed)
It would need some exceptionally high level negotiation, given North would have the salary cap to resist offers.

The only practical players (IMO) to add to the list of prospective “delistings” in the following two years (projecting) are out of contract Owies, O’Brien, Cottrell and Martin if his TOG remains low. LOB and Cotts only help statutory requirement if they find their way to the main list, so have flagged rookie “juggling”.

 

[Michael Jezz]

The Club has not been in a position for 30 years to tell it's players to "s*-t or get off the pot", which drives performance accountability.
The players have had the luxury of moving on coaches and starting afresh every 3 seasons for a decade. Mcgovern for example is a cat who has had 3 or 4 lives: 1 each at Adelaide, under Bolton, Teague and now Voss
Delisting or Trading up to 9 players next year based on performance will deliver winning as the only option.

 

[Healer]

Really hope all the talk on various threads about TDK asking for trade or being moved on, or Cats about to jump on him, is just idle speculation.
TDK is a special talent and I would hate to lose him. But if we have to, 3 x 1st rounders and 45 kms of the Great Ocean Road, starting at Anglesea

 

[Doro]

Really hope all the talk on various threads about TDK asking for trade or being moved on, or Cats about to jump on him, is just idle speculation.
TDK is a special talent and I would hate to lose him. But if we have to, 3 x 1st rounders and 45 kms of the Great Ocean Road, starting at Anglesea

Doubt we'd be getting anything more than a late first from the Cats. Nonsensical for him to move from a club on the rise without great depth in the position. We've been doing a good job with the re-signings, reckon he'll be one of the first cabs off the rank.

 

[BigFrizz36]

Doubt we'd be getting anything more than a late first from the Cats. Nonsensical for him to move from a club on the rise without great depth in the position. We've been doing a good job with the re-signings, reckon he'll be one of the first cabs off the rank.

Also strongly suspect that he's going nowhere, both parties seeing what he's capable of this year so that they can determine the correct salary.

However if we use the Henderson valuation method he is surely worth more than a late first?

 

[Doro]

Also strongly suspect that he's going nowhere, both parties seeing what he's capable of this year so that they can determine the correct salary.

However if we use the Henderson valuation method he is surely worth more than a late first?

On what he's produced to date that's about where he sits value wise. We don't have Dodo doing the deal.

 

[The Return of the Paf]

On what he's produced to date that's about where he sits value wise. We don't have Dodo doing the deal.

If Dodo does a deal a particular way, I don't see why we can't. Say what you like about him but hating on him for getting the best possible deal for his club is a bit disingenuous.

 

[Doro]

If Dodo does a deal a particular way, I don't see why we can't. Say what you like about him but hating on him for getting the best possible deal for his club is a bit disingenuous.

Toughest negotiator in the business, it hasn't helped manifest a premiership quality list though. I don't see us turning the screws on any future player exit negotiations. Not necessarily a bad thing.

 

[macky99]

Also strongly suspect that he's going nowhere, both parties seeing what he's capable of this year so that they can determine the correct salary.

However if we use the Henderson valuation method he is surely worth more than a late first?

I believe this is the most likely direction, the Manager of TDK is hoping he has a strong 1st half of the season start to have something to support a uplift in his package rather than just potential.
I would be surprised if he elects to leave the Blues based on the environment that has been created in the past 12 months.

 

[BigFrizz36]

If Dodo does a deal a particular way, I don't see why we can't. Say what you like about him but hating on him for getting the best possible deal for his club is a bit disingenuous.

Surely he is judged by his teams results?

You could only guess how many opportunities never eventuated because clubs didn't want to go through the process of dealing with Dodo and *. For example where is Josh Dunkley playing this year?

You can't seriously be claiming that we should follow the * model. The only reason that Dodo still has a job is because * is so dysfunctional.

 

[thylacine60]

Yes sweetie?

you magnificent idiot......

 

[Healer]

If Dodo does a deal a particular way, I don't see why we can't. Say what you like about him but hating on him for getting the best possible deal for his club is a bit disingenuous.

Yea - Nah,
we get to hate on anything or anyone related to the drug cheats... forever and a day..... and loving it.