List Mgmt. 2023 List Management

[HereComesJuddy]

When I heard Voss talking about hard decisions I thought it would mean Marchbank and Cunners were done. These guys have played 41 games and 52 games in 7 and 8 years respectively - their bodies just cannot hold up - so these aren’t cases like Doc and Charlie where they’d shown they could play full seasons and just had bad luck with serious injuries.

It means we are 2 down before the season starts, 4 if you consider Akeui and a Mirkov are nowhere near Afl ready. Even 10% of your list unable to play puts a lot of pressure on the list to cover injuries and the coaches plans, the flow on effect is guys like Kemp training all pre season as a forward then being pulled down into defence in the season to cover injuries.

A line in the sand has to drawn somewhere otherwise we will never be successful.

There's also the other side to it...

If we had of delisted Marchbank and Cunners (can't remember if he was contracted or not), we probably would have taken 2 more very late picks at the draft. Now this isn't definite we would have, but list spaces still needed to be used.

Now a draftee no matter how late from my understanding is offered a 2 year contract. There's every possible chance we have looked further into our list planing than just last year and I would believe we would have been very happy with just the 4 draft picks and Acres during that period.

It's one thing to cut a player who has had a fair few injuries and say it's best for the team, but is it though without looking at the big picture?

 

[Coona Blues]

We’re stuck with Williams and his contract … full stop !!
Wasn’t it the word that, Cain Liddle was VERY keen for Austin to bring Williams on board no matter what ?
I believe Martin might be contracted for 2024 as well so like it or not, these 2 will likely be around.
That leaves the injury prone Marchbank Cuningham McGovern Philp and Honey absolutely in the crosshairs.
The club can’t wait any longer for these guys, it’s gotta be this year or goodbye …

The question is what defines “it’s gotta be this year”?

McGovern remains on a lucrative contract so is different from the others. It relates heavily to salary cap impact. There is even a scenario where a good or even great year will not keep him. Assuming TDK stays on decent money, it is hard to see even average wages being available for Gov.

What does the year need to be for Marchy and Cunners? If they get on the park for double figures game tallies and end the year healthy, we will be obliged to retain them. Surely their current contracts will not be much higher than draftee money, with decent match payment incentives.

It remains risk versus reward calculations. Both of D.C. and C.M. would arguably be commanding ~$500k salaries if they had continuity in their careers. If we can have them on the list with a decent prospect of playing games, it remains worth an element of risk. Not a guaranteed clean out there. A tough decision. We are definitely unlikely to keep both Gov and Marchy on good money. The added factor will be the trajectory of Brodie Kemp who is possibly on the cusp of a significant break out. Thinking we are unlikely to throw the baby out with the bath water.

We have a deep enough list to continue partially “carrying” a couple of players.

Philpy sadly will almost certainly not be with us. He will be unable to plead a case on the inactive list. Josh Honey has had a chequered run as well and absolutely must forge a path to the top team during the year to be retained. Not necessarily established best 22, but demonstrably capable and playing good footy in the twos. Odds probably against, with more players entering the system, but ball is in his court.

I am still hopeful Zac Williams becomes a Carlton premiership player. I struggle to get a handle on Jack Martin, contracted until the end of 2024. His best is spectacular and walk up best 22. We don’t get to see much of that, and clearly his soft tissue dramas are a constant companion. His body has declined to the point that he is probably not as capable of the highlights he once was. Has a hard edge and can “find a way”, but no guarantees.

There will be a reckoning, but it may not be as profound as some think.

 

[Stamos]

McGovern remains on a lucrative contract so is different from the others. It relates heavily to salary cap impact. There is even a scenario where a good or even great year will not keep him. Assuming TDK stays on decent money, it is hard to see even average wages being available for Gov.

I can't imagine Gov is still on that much given we needed to hit the cap floor when he was signed, but his next contract will be significantly less when what he's been on.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

The one worry for me is that Doc, Newman, Kemp and Williams have all done knees. Boyd is getting a couple of injuries. Gov and Marchbank we all know about. That is a lot of defenders and makes the Cowan pickup look smart. In saying that, that group also should be replaceable with some smart recruiting.
it’s crazy to look at the talent of our HB’s and third tall defenders and think we might actually be targeting those types of players in 6 months if we aren’t lucky.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

This is McGovern's last year of his contract. I think a bad year or injured year will see him gone, but equally I think a good year will see him gone. Jeremy McGovern

20

Jeremy Mcgovern

Age

33

Ht

197cm

Wt

97kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.7

4star

K

10.1

4star

HB

4.6

3star

M

6.8

5star

T

1.5

3star

MG

238.7

4star

D

12.4

3star

K

8.6

3star

HB

3.8

3star

M

6.4

5star

T

2.0

3star

MG

183.4

3star

D

11.0

3star

K

8.8

4star

HB

2.2

2star

M

7.2

5star

T

1.4

4star

has made it clear he wants to play with his brother before their careers end. I think the Eagles will gladly try to obtain what Sydney have done with the McCartins.

 

[carlton_99]

Tom De Koning

21

Tom De Koning

Age

26

Ht

201cm

Wt

102kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.0

2star

K

3.0

1star

HB

5.0

4star

CL

0.5

2star

HO

1.5

4star

No current season stats available

D

8.0

2star

K

3.0

1star

HB

5.0

4star

CL

0.5

3star

HO

1.5

5star

’s manager says the exciting ruck-forward is finally ready to capitalise on his first injury-free summer but is in no hurry to consider a contract with the club. Connors Sports manager Robbie D’Orazio helps represent both De Koning and his rucking partner Marc Pittonet

27

Marc Pittonet

Age

29

Ht

202cm

Wt

107kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

7.7

2star

K

2.9

1star

HB

4.8

3star

CL

3.1

5star

HO

22.3

5star

D

8.6

2star

K

4.6

2star

HB

4.0

3star

CL

3.7

5star

HO

25.9

5star

D

5.8

2star

K

1.2

1star

HB

4.6

4star

CL

2.4

5star

HO

16.6

5star

in a year where both players come out of contract. D’Orazio confirmed on Thursday the 23-year-old was brimming with enthusiasm about the season ahead in a year where he is likely to play more ruck than key forward.

https://archive.is/tP3r9

 

[My Hat]

From the TDK article:

"The AFL’s salary cap might creep up by another five per cent this year despite the AFL’s revenue exploding by $131.8 million last season."

Man I hate it when people do this. Give me numbers I can compare. Two dollar amounts or two percentages, either is fine. The above sentence communicates nothing useful unless I do my own legwork to figure it out. All it really tells me is that the writer of the article is trying to push a particular angle.

/rant

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

From the TDK article:

"The AFL’s salary cap might creep up by another five per cent this year despite the AFL’s revenue exploding by $131.8 million last season."

Man I hate it when people do this. Give me numbers I can compare. Two dollar amounts or two percentages, either is fine. The above sentence communicates nothing useful unless I do my own legwork to figure it out. All it really tells me is that the writer of the article is trying to push a particular angle.

/rant

Based on 2022, it's approximately $665k more across the team.

 

[I bleed Blue]

No one is taking Williams off our hands. Forget about it. We've got him for 3 more years after this. Just need to hope and pray like hell that he comes good.

Something needs to be done about our chronically injured list though.

We can't keep having seasons with 1/4 of our players unavailable (usually the same guys).

Need to be ruthless with getting this sorted.

Having so many injuries each year just puts you so far behind the 8ball it's not even funny. Could genuinely cost us a flag.

 

[thylacine60]

is one of the elephants from the herd in the room the fear that we might delist an injury prone player only to have him rebuilt and star for another team?

 

[I bleed Blue]

is one of the elephants from the herd in the room the fear that we might delist an injury prone player only to have him rebuilt and star for another team?

I think that could be part of it.

Or the sunken cost theory. We've put so much time and money into them, we have to give them another year because if they come good they will be a gun.

 

[TENACIOUS]

IMO... Think we will have a large cleanout of injury prone players at the end of this year...
Yes, they have great talent... However, they just cannot get on the park...

Historically injured players are
Williams, Martin, Pittonet, McGovern, Marchbank, Philp, Cuningham, Honey, Fogarty & Boyd...

Contracted Staying
Martin - 2024
Williams -2026
Boyd - 2024

Likely Recontracted (* Reduced $$$ Deal)
McGovern*
Pittonet

Likely Gone (Unless they can turn it around this year)
Marchbank
Philp
Cuningham
Honey
Fogarty

Re-Sign
DeKoning, Motlop, Young, Durdin, Docherty, Newman, Kemp & Silvagni

Likely Re-Sign (on short term deals... Unless we need the list spots)
Plowman, Curnow, Cincotta, Dow, O'Keeffe & Akuei

Delist	Marchbank Philp Cuningham Honey Fogarty
Add	O'Keeffe Cincotta
=	3x National Draft Picks

 

[HereComesJuddy]

IMO... Think we will have a large cleanout of injury prone players at the end of this year...
Yes, they have great talent... However, they just cannot get on the park...

Historically injured players are
Williams, Martin, Pittonet, McGovern, Marchbank, Philp, Cuningham, Honey, Fogarty & Boyd...

Contracted Staying
Martin - 2024
Williams -2026
Boyd - 2024

Likely Recontracted (* Reduced $$$ Deal)
McGovern*
Pittonet

Likely Gone (Unless they can turn it around this year)
Marchbank
Philp
Cuningham
Honey
Fogarty

Re-Sign
DeKoning, Motlop, Young, Durdin, Docherty, Newman, Kemp & Silvagni

Likely Re-Sign (on short term deals... Unless we need the list spots)
Plowman, Curnow, Cincotta, Dow, O'Keeffe & Akuei

Delist	Marchbank Philp Cuningham Honey Fogarty
Add	O'Keeffe Cincotta
=	3x National Draft Picks

I think only 5 gone from the list this year is generous. I'm expecting approx 8

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

I think only 5 gone from the list this year is generous. I'm expecting approx 8

Plowman, Dow, Ed, would be more likely gone than not imo.

TDK up in the air.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Plowman, Dow, Ed, would be more likely gone than not imo.

TDK up in the air.

Agree. I'd be beyond surprised if Dow is in Navy Blue in 2024 and the whispers of TDK and Geelong are getting bigger by the minute but a few clubs will wave some big dollars at him also.

My early take: gone or will need to have a very good year to stay on
Dow
Ed
Philp
Fogarty
Cuningham
Marchbank
Honey
McGovern
Newman

Up in the air
TDK
Pittonet

 

[Stamos]

I think only 5 gone from the list this year is generous. I'm expecting approx 8

8 is a lot for a youngish list in contention and missing a 2nd & 3rd round picks

 

[HereComesJuddy]

8 is a lot for a youngish list in contention and missing a 2nd & 3rd round picks

Plenty of moving parts this year. Number will be higher than most think

 

[JJBagger]

IMO... Think we will have a large cleanout of injury prone players at the end of this year...
Yes, they have great talent... However, they just cannot get on the park...

Historically injured players are
Williams, Martin, Pittonet, McGovern, Marchbank, Philp, Cuningham, Honey, Fogarty & Boyd...

Contracted Staying
Martin - 2024
Williams -2026
Boyd - 2024

Likely Recontracted (* Reduced $$$ Deal)
McGovern*
Pittonet

Likely Gone (Unless they can turn it around this year)
Marchbank
Philp
Cuningham
Honey
Fogarty

Re-Sign
DeKoning, Motlop, Young, Durdin, Docherty, Newman, Kemp & Silvagni

Likely Re-Sign (on short term deals... Unless we need the list spots)
Plowman, Curnow, Cincotta, Dow, O'Keeffe & Akuei

Delist	Marchbank Philp Cuningham Honey Fogarty
Add	O'Keeffe Cincotta
=	3x National Draft Picks

Little stiff putting Boyd on this list seeing as he’s had the same injury twice and it was a fracture in his foot. Same sort of deal with Pitto. If someone’s injury prone, that more refers to soft tissue or stress-related injuries, rather than contact injuries

 

[Arr0w]

8 is a lot for a youngish list in contention and missing a 2nd & 3rd round picks

8 is pretty much average, expecting 7-9 changes again this year

 

[JJBagger]

8 is pretty much average, expecting 7-9 changes again this year

Is the controversy going to come more from the names being moved on?

 

[katmanblue]

I think we need to be absolutely ruthless with our injury prone players at the end of this season. We can't keep going to a dry well.

Well hopefully, this time next year, we can look at this post and think



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[katmanblue]

This just isn't practical.
Unless you want to dish off a first rounder with him, nobody is going to eat enough of his salary for it to be worth it for us.

Youd have to pay a fair chunk, ala Treloar. Which would defeat the purpose. Though that hasn't wound up too bad for that mob.

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[katmanblue]

I don't think Pitto is on that list.
Philp obviously is

Surely Philp is way past in the gun.

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[Bletch]

<Checks calendar> It's February, right?

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Youd have to pay a fair chunk, ala Treloar. Which would defeat the purpose. Though that hasn't wound up too bad for that mob.

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That’s what I think. We would probably have to pay ~$300k, so I’d prefer to just keep him and hope he becomes a $500k a year player.