- Nov 23, 2015
- 11,862
- 17,576
- AFL Club
- GWS
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- #1
So, round 6 saw us with a heart-stopping win against the Hawks, that was a lot more difficult than it should have been. Which does not bode well for our next round, against the Brisbane Lions who are a much better team. Having said that, the Lions have been a real mixed bag so far this season. A big loss to Port in Adelaide opened their season, before they defeated Melbourne at home, then they lost to the Bulldogs - who, like us, are languishing low on the table - before they beat the previously unconquered Magpies. Indeed, that signalled two home wins but two home losses. Their Gather Round was also technically a "home game", where they smashed the woeful Kangaroos. If the season's pattern were to continue, GWS would win this ... alas, it comes down to a bit more science than that!
GWS also has a terrible recent record at Manuka Oval (or its various names!), not having won since round 7, 2019. We also have a poor recent record against the Lions, with the past 4 games being losses. Our most recent win against them was our heart-stopping semi-final win in 2019 enroute to our maiden Grand Final appearance. And based on their last two games, they are definitely playing better than us at the moment.
It's a bit hard to work out exactly what isn't clicking for us at the moment. At times we look really good, with some end-to-end football and great finishing, and then at other times we scrap and scrap and manage to win a turnover and then someone just kicks it straight to an opposition player who's 30m from any Giants player. And a goal ensues. Maddening. Or we create scoring changes, and they spray it wide from 30 metres in front. We have an uncanny ability at times to play to the level - but just below - our opposition. Play well but still lose to better teams, play poorly and lose to poor teams. Guys like Lachie Whitfield - who used to be our most penetrating kicker - are making more errors, and instead of releasing our attack, are causing the ball to come straight back in.
The Positives
One massive positive is the form of our KPDs in Sam Taylor and Jack Buckley. Sam Taylor has developed into the premier key defender of the competition. So far this season, he has lost only 1 of 18 defensive one-on-one contests, leaving him with an astonishing loss percentage of 5.6%. He's also taken the most intercepts, and is the top-rated key defender in contested marks (equal 4th overall, and only behind McKay, Curnow & Dixon in that stat). Buckley is not too shabby either, ranking 8th in defensive-one-on-one loss rate, as well as being the top-rated key defender for pressure acts, and 8th in 1%ers. Nick Haynes is starting to get back to his best, ranking equal 3rd in total marks, behind Sicily and Weitering. So, a very decent tall defence.
Tom Green is having a superb year having escaped the shadow of Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper, ranking 4th in disposals and 5th in contested possessions. The only downside is probably his disposal, leading the clanger count at the moment. Stephen Coniglio is also having a decent year, but he's equal 6th in clangers. Josh Kelly is also having a pretty decent year.
Up front, Toby is ... well, Toby. Mercurial, gets a lot of shots at goal, pulls off some miracles, but also misses a few too. Jesse Hogan still has the yips, but is clunking a lot of marks - he's equal 4th in contested marks (equal with Sam Taylor!) behind only McKay, Curnow and Dixon for key forwards. Despite the misses, he's equal 14th in goals scored.
The Negatives
Unfortunately, a few. Despite our mids getting a bunch of ball, we give it away far too much, leading to scores against. There's only so much that Taylor, Buckley and Haynes can do! As well, our medium defenders are not as adept as their taller brethren, and don't do as good a defending job. They have also struggled to attack down field with accuracy, and often compound our midfielders' problem in handing the ball back to our opponents. Give the Lions that luxury, and they'll cut us to pieces.
The Game
No doubt that Brisbane's confidence will be up after their last two games. Adam Kingsley will be needing to study the Lions' game plan, and work out what Port and Dogs did so well to quell them. Lachie Neale will be a major factor after his superlative outing against Norths. Having been cut up by Cripps against Carlton, and to a lesser extent by Jai Newcombe on the weekend, he seriously needs to consider tagging someone like Neale. It's not a job for Green - who might cop his own tag - but rather than let Tom run head to head, does he put Cogs or someone like O'Halloran on for a close tag.
The tall defenders will have their work cut out for them against Daniher and Hipwood. However, Norths gave up plenty of marks to them, as they did previously to Curnow and McKay - whereas Taylor and Buckley held the latter pair to just 2 goals in our recent game. So they do have the ability to quell their scoring - if our midfield can prevent an avalanche of forward entries. The main headache that Lions have given GWS in the recent past, though, has been their small forwards with Charlie Cameron and Lincoln McCarthy. This year, Cam Rayner has upped his game and will also be a threat.
And our forward line just has to kick straight this week. Hogan will clunk marks, but hopefully can throw off the yips. If not, we might need to get creative in having him give off some shots to others - such as HH or Toby - but sensibly, not stupidly as he's done in the past. Similarly, Toby needs to have maximum involvement and get goals for us to have a chance. It was good to see Aaron Cadman's game against the Hawks. Certainly not a starring role, but took a couple of great midfield marks, and from one of those a brilliant pass to Hogan.
All-in-all, this will be a pretty difficult game to win, but Brisbane have shown weakness this year, and if we can find the same pressure points as Bulldogs and Port, it is possible to upset them.
As a Canberran, I'll be there cheering on the boys - hopefully we get a good crowd, maybe some Sydneysiders can come down for a weekend in the nation's capital and enjoy the Saturday afternoon game. It's meant to be a pleasant 21 degrees, hopefully no rain, so come on down!
GWS also has a terrible recent record at Manuka Oval (or its various names!), not having won since round 7, 2019. We also have a poor recent record against the Lions, with the past 4 games being losses. Our most recent win against them was our heart-stopping semi-final win in 2019 enroute to our maiden Grand Final appearance. And based on their last two games, they are definitely playing better than us at the moment.
It's a bit hard to work out exactly what isn't clicking for us at the moment. At times we look really good, with some end-to-end football and great finishing, and then at other times we scrap and scrap and manage to win a turnover and then someone just kicks it straight to an opposition player who's 30m from any Giants player. And a goal ensues. Maddening. Or we create scoring changes, and they spray it wide from 30 metres in front. We have an uncanny ability at times to play to the level - but just below - our opposition. Play well but still lose to better teams, play poorly and lose to poor teams. Guys like Lachie Whitfield - who used to be our most penetrating kicker - are making more errors, and instead of releasing our attack, are causing the ball to come straight back in.
The Positives
One massive positive is the form of our KPDs in Sam Taylor and Jack Buckley. Sam Taylor has developed into the premier key defender of the competition. So far this season, he has lost only 1 of 18 defensive one-on-one contests, leaving him with an astonishing loss percentage of 5.6%. He's also taken the most intercepts, and is the top-rated key defender in contested marks (equal 4th overall, and only behind McKay, Curnow & Dixon in that stat). Buckley is not too shabby either, ranking 8th in defensive-one-on-one loss rate, as well as being the top-rated key defender for pressure acts, and 8th in 1%ers. Nick Haynes is starting to get back to his best, ranking equal 3rd in total marks, behind Sicily and Weitering. So, a very decent tall defence.
Tom Green is having a superb year having escaped the shadow of Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper, ranking 4th in disposals and 5th in contested possessions. The only downside is probably his disposal, leading the clanger count at the moment. Stephen Coniglio is also having a decent year, but he's equal 6th in clangers. Josh Kelly is also having a pretty decent year.
Up front, Toby is ... well, Toby. Mercurial, gets a lot of shots at goal, pulls off some miracles, but also misses a few too. Jesse Hogan still has the yips, but is clunking a lot of marks - he's equal 4th in contested marks (equal with Sam Taylor!) behind only McKay, Curnow and Dixon for key forwards. Despite the misses, he's equal 14th in goals scored.
The Negatives
Unfortunately, a few. Despite our mids getting a bunch of ball, we give it away far too much, leading to scores against. There's only so much that Taylor, Buckley and Haynes can do! As well, our medium defenders are not as adept as their taller brethren, and don't do as good a defending job. They have also struggled to attack down field with accuracy, and often compound our midfielders' problem in handing the ball back to our opponents. Give the Lions that luxury, and they'll cut us to pieces.
The Game
No doubt that Brisbane's confidence will be up after their last two games. Adam Kingsley will be needing to study the Lions' game plan, and work out what Port and Dogs did so well to quell them. Lachie Neale will be a major factor after his superlative outing against Norths. Having been cut up by Cripps against Carlton, and to a lesser extent by Jai Newcombe on the weekend, he seriously needs to consider tagging someone like Neale. It's not a job for Green - who might cop his own tag - but rather than let Tom run head to head, does he put Cogs or someone like O'Halloran on for a close tag.
The tall defenders will have their work cut out for them against Daniher and Hipwood. However, Norths gave up plenty of marks to them, as they did previously to Curnow and McKay - whereas Taylor and Buckley held the latter pair to just 2 goals in our recent game. So they do have the ability to quell their scoring - if our midfield can prevent an avalanche of forward entries. The main headache that Lions have given GWS in the recent past, though, has been their small forwards with Charlie Cameron and Lincoln McCarthy. This year, Cam Rayner has upped his game and will also be a threat.
And our forward line just has to kick straight this week. Hogan will clunk marks, but hopefully can throw off the yips. If not, we might need to get creative in having him give off some shots to others - such as HH or Toby - but sensibly, not stupidly as he's done in the past. Similarly, Toby needs to have maximum involvement and get goals for us to have a chance. It was good to see Aaron Cadman's game against the Hawks. Certainly not a starring role, but took a couple of great midfield marks, and from one of those a brilliant pass to Hogan.
All-in-all, this will be a pretty difficult game to win, but Brisbane have shown weakness this year, and if we can find the same pressure points as Bulldogs and Port, it is possible to upset them.
As a Canberran, I'll be there cheering on the boys - hopefully we get a good crowd, maybe some Sydneysiders can come down for a weekend in the nation's capital and enjoy the Saturday afternoon game. It's meant to be a pleasant 21 degrees, hopefully no rain, so come on down!
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