Position 2024 Fantasy Rookies

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I’ve just had another look at cadman

For those worried about Campbell scoring with needing 2 goals to get to 60, are you not concerned Cadman needed 2 goals to get to 47?

And re job security/sub risk, it feels stronger but after playing 12 games last year and 4 of those subbed off, how different is it in reality now? Better surely but by how much?

And in those games he averaged 24, rebatable his average in unvested games is the same as vested.

His 47 is 10 points better than his 2023 season high so that st least points to a player with n the up but I’m not sure if that stat is a positive or a negative!

And he’s still a key forward!

I’m considering him but it’s lot of faith in backing the fact he was a pick 1, natural development and in reality the next 2 weeks hoping he can jag a 4 goal haul or 2 as without that draw I doubt anyone would be giving him much thought based on the evidence
 
I’ve just had another look at cadman

For those worried about Campbell scoring with needing 2 goals to get to 60, are you not concerned Cadman needed 2 goals to get to 47?

And re job security/sub risk, it feels stronger but after playing 12 games last year and 4 of those subbed off, how different is it in reality now? Better surely but by how much?

And in those games he averaged 24, rebatable his average in unvested games is the same as vested.

His 47 is 10 points better than his 2023 season high so that st least points to a player with n the up but I’m not sure if that stat is a positive or a negative!

And he’s still a key forward!

I’m considering him but it’s lot of faith in backing the fact he was a pick 1, natural development and in reality the next 2 weeks hoping he can jag a 4 goal haul or 2 as without that draw I doubt anyone would be giving him much thought based on the evidence
I currently have him but i feel awful about it, i think his scoring potential sucks and banking on the two easy match ups is dangerous. He is no guarantee to kick 3+ and he might need that just to get to a respectable score.

Him and Gibcus are the two i am currently only going to use and an absolute last resort. Surely we get better in round 1 than those 2? SURELY!
 
More of Cadman, I’ve just looked at the comparable players that come to mind recently who were high key forwards getting games early.

There’s actually a lot to benchmark with which is nice.

Looking both at what may be reasonable to expect as a average as well as the progression year 1 to 2 (and included 3rd)

Max king
- 41, 54, 62

Thilthorpe
- 51, 57, 52

Ben King
- 39, 38, 50

JUH
-42, 44, 60

McDonald
- 43, 48, 54

It’s been a pretty good exercise to do with takeaways being
  • year1-2 change is minimal to none with an average of 5, this is inflated even by M Kings 13
  • a mid 50s Ave puts him in the upper echelon, mid 40s more realistic.
  • Cadman is well below any of these as a base so you’d hope he improves by more than the average of 5 (placing him
At 29) but can you really expect him to go more than 40s based on this?

It’s really again coming back to a 2 week reliance on this fixture but even then what’s the ceiling?
 
Can't pick Campbell now, IMO. Last listed on the bench, and prime candidate for either being subbed in, or subbed out.
I'm not going Campbell either. He is a classic trap. But last listed on bench? Not sure that means much. Midget Baker is listed at CHF.
 
Burgess scoring history is horrific though too

The 1 year it doesn’t make you puke he was Rick in a ruck injury crisis. Otherwise he can’t crack a 30 either

You’d think he now has opportunity and he’s developed more with 2 string vfl seasons but can anyone shed light on how he managed only 22 in his 1 game… a full game against north Melbourne?! The fact it was rd 24 and they lost comfortably the only saving grace I can see to give any excuse

Banking the price rise from Campbell 60 is increasingly appealing!
 
Burgess scoring history is horrific though too

The 1 year it doesn’t make you puke he was Rick in a ruck injury crisis. Otherwise he can’t crack a 30 either

You’d think he now has opportunity and he’s developed more with 2 string vfl seasons but can anyone shed light on how he managed only 22 in his 1 game… a full game against north Melbourne?! The fact it was rd 24 and they lost comfortably the only saving grace I can see to give any excuse

Banking the price rise from Campbell 60 is increasingly appealing!
Cadman at F8 for me, will be a slow burn with the possibility of a spike score in rnds 1 & 2, Scored a 59 in the praccy with only 1 goal but interestingly 4 HO's. His JS looks pretty solid with others like Wehr/Taylor/McMullins looking much more likely. If Cadman scores a fifty in rnd 1 he'll go up by $50k
 
Campbell looked really good from my perspective last week. Shining light in a pretty average game for the Tigers.

I would say Mansell as the sub is more likely tomorrow night.

In saying that he's not currently in my side but I think he'll be a decent rookie, albeit might be a bit of a slow burn. But a couple of 60's will get that cash gen going.
 

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Happy enough to have Campbell at $200k with a 61 locked in already.
All he has to do is breathe on field this week with a negative break even and he'll lock in a $60k increase from his 2 game price rise.
Anything more than a zero is money in the bank on top of that $60k
 
With everything being said about how slim our (mainly) forward rookie options are- who do we actually think are the best bench options outside of Wilson/Windsor/Clark/Lazarro/Howes/Sharp (when named)?
 
With everything being said about how slim our (mainly) forward rookie options are- who do we actually think are the best bench options outside of Wilson/Windsor/Clark/Lazarro/Howes/Sharp (when named)?
Those plus I’m happy enough with Reid now as my other defensive one

I’m not picking Windsor so it’s really just that 1 spot I’m grappling with.
 

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