2024 Ladder Predictions

[FootyLad0]

1. Brisbane
2. GWS
3. Blues
4. Pies
5. Sydney
6. Port
7. Saints
8. Gold Coast

9. Dogs
10. Adelaide
11. Melbourne
12. Hawthorn
13. Essendon
14. North
15. Fremantle
16. Richmond
17. West Coast
18. Geelong


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Toe Poke living rent free

 

[Fadge]

This is the best one i've seen.

Soo many here usually just mix the top 8 around slightly and make no changes which never happens.

Normally you have to factor in the guaranteed statistical likelihood that every single year:

2 teams from the previous years top 8 fall out to the bottom 10
2 teams take their place in the 8 with 1 of those teams jumping into top 4 contention from the bottom 10.
Injuries, form and especially strength of schedule factor into this.

He hasn't exactly done this but he's almost done it with the Swans being a fringe Finals team in 2023 making the jump.
I'd swap Crows to 3 and Swans to 6 to accommodate but otherwise nailed it.

I wonder what the probability is of me going back to back with the best Ladder Prediction on BigFooty?

I actually originally had Adelaide higher before my update on Feb 9, but bumped up St. Kilda after more consideration.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

I wonder what the probability is of me going back to back with the best Ladder Prediction on BigFooty?

I actually originally had Adelaide higher before my update on Feb 9, but bumped up St. Kilda after more consideration.

Gotta win it once to go b2b Fudgey!

 

[Orange crush]

Gotta win it once to go b2b Fudgey!

Indeed …. Fadge is such a pickme kind of dude

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Indeed …. Fadge is such a pickme kind of dude

50c bet on all outcomes, claims he’s a big winner.

 

[Fadge]

Gotta win it once to go b2b Fudgey!

Indeed …. Fadge is such a pickme kind of dude

Happy for either/both of you to trawl through the 2023 Ladder Predictions and find one that was closer than mine.

 

[Orange crush]

Happy for either/both of you to trawl through the 2023 Ladder Predictions and find one that was closer than mine.

I’m pretty sure mine was

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

I’m pretty sure mine was

No mine was. Trust me.

 

[Philth]

I wonder what the probability is of me going back to back with the best Ladder Prediction on BigFooty?

I actually originally had Adelaide higher before my update on Feb 9, but bumped up St. Kilda after more consideration.

What's your reasons for having the Tigers so low?

I'm genuinely curious.

Because I have NFI how we'll go this year.

 

[Fadge]

What's your reasons for having the Tigers so low?

I'm genuinely curious.

Because I have NFI how we'll go this year.

13th last year, loss of leadership from Cotchin and Riewoldt. Martin, Grimes, Prestia, etc. not getting any younger. Not a heap of proven young talent.

I can't see how they finish any higher than bottom 4.

 

[Philth]

13th last year, loss of leadership from Cotchin and Riewoldt. Martin, Grimes, Prestia, etc. not getting any younger. Not a heap of proven young talent.

I can't see how they finish any higher than bottom 4.

I think if they have a very good run with injuries the bottom 4 can be avoided.

If not, it's a lock.

 

[Red Bull]

West Coast appear better equipped in the KPD stakes to face scoring onslaughts than North or hawthorn.

Eagles : Barrass McGovern
Roos : Corr Pink
Hawks : Frost DGB

 

[carlton_99]

1. Brisbane: Too good at home and really like the Doedee acquisition - one of the best (and most underrated) intercept defenders in the league
2. Carlton: Getting Zac Williams back plus some extra forward depth in Hollands and Fantasia will help out heaps - expect Harry to get back to his best kicking-wise as well. Need Weitering back ASAP - by far our most important player.
3. Collingwood: Schultz is a great pick-up and is a massive improvement on Ginnivan but do think the loss of McStay and his ability to bring the ball to ground for the crumbers will be hard to cover.
4. Sydney: Another year of experience for a pretty young team full of talent - Grundy also massive for their midfield. Expecting Logan McDonald to have a big year.
5. GWS: Showed how good they can be last year and have a spine as good as anyone's. If Hogan can perform consistently and kicking 50-60 goals they can easily finish top 4.
6. Melbourne: Will be up there again this year off their ridiculous backline led by May and Lever. Gawn back to solo ruck is dangerous for any opposition. Only reason I have them 6th is their forward does look weaker than the teams above them.
7. Adelaide: Love what they did last year and are another team that are incredibly tough to beat at home. Darcy Fogarty

32

Darcy Fogarty

Age

26

Ht

192cm

Wt

100kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.5

2star

K

5.7

2star

HB

2.8

2star

M

3.7

4star

T

1.7

4star

G

1.2

4star

D

6.3

1star

K

4.0

1star

HB

2.3

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.3

3star

G

1.0

4star

D

8.0

2star

K

5.4

2star

HB

2.6

3star

M

3.4

4star

T

2.6

4star

G

1.0

4star

will establish himself as their best forward and kick 45-50 goals in 2024.
8. Western Bulldogs: Too much talent to not have them in my eight. Think Macrae back in the midfield and not playing that weird HF role will be massive for them. Expect Naughton and JUH to hit another level next year as well. Would have them as a top-4 contender if they had another strong key defender next to Jones.

9. Port Adelaide: Was a toss-up between them and the Dogs for 8th. Don't really rate any of their acquisitions that highly and still think their defence may struggle. But with Butters/Rozee firing the main team in my bottom 10 that could make the top-6 and it wouldn't surprise me.
10. Geelong: Midfield is a bit of a concern as most players there are ageing but their forward is very dangerous with Hawkins and Cameron fit. Will still be tough to beat at GMHBA and so expect them to be thereabouts this year.
11. Essendon: McKay is a massive upgrade on BZT and should help the defensive line immensely. Goldstein as well is still playing at a very high level. If Wright can have a good season and Langford remains consistent it wouldn't surprise me if they made the 8.
12. Gold Coast: There is always a boost to a team when they have a new coach but I just don't see them finishing in the top 8 this year. Don't think they have enough players that perform at a high level every week.
13. St Kilda: Ross Lyon's game plan will keep them close enough in most games but still think they lack the A-grade talent required to beat most teams I have in the top-10.
14. Hawthorn: Love what Sam Mitchell has done with this team - the recent injuries will hurt and I probably could have had them higher if it wasn't for that. Will be a nice to see Gunston and Breust in the same forward again and another year into Newcombe/Day.
15. North Melbourne: Have so much first-round talent it isn't funny but so much of it is in the midfield - was really surprised they didn't target more KPPs in the last couple of drafts. Still think they are short a key defender and a key forward to really take the next step but expect them to improve from last year's season.
16. Richmond: Almost felt bad putting Richmond in 16th because they still have so many talented players on the team. For me they were the hardest team to place and it wouldn't surprise me if they finished in the top 10. Only reason I have them this low is their midfield and forward. Seems like there is a lot of reliance on Lynch (coming back from injury) and Taranto/Hopper.
17. Fremantle: They have a lot of good young talent in the midfield but just don't see how they can consistently kick a winning score. Top 3 goal kickers in 2023 were Amiss (gun), Schultz (traded) and Walters (ageing) - need others to step up.
18. West Coast: Can't put them anywhere else at this point but hopefully Reid has a great first year at the level and Yeo can stay healthy and impact in the middle.

 

[tiger_tough]

16. Richmond: Almost felt bad putting Richmond in 16th because they still have so many talented players on the team. For me they were the hardest team to place and it wouldn't surprise me if they finished in the top 10. Only reason I have them this low is their midfield and forward. Seems like there is a lot of reliance on Lynch (coming back from injury) and Taranto/Hopper.

Nankervis, Taranto, Hopper, Martin, Prestia, Baker with Bolton rotating through. Better than majority of teams starting midfield groups I would have thought.

I expect a huge uplift in midfield performance under Yze, given he will actually be proactive around stoppage rather than the outdated plan Dimma and Dimma mk II redused to budge on in focussing purely on winning the ball back post stoppage clearance.

Forward line will contain Lynch, Balta, Bolton, Cumberland and sometimes Dusty. Plenty of forepower there.

No chance were bottom 4.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Nankervis, Taranto, Hopper, Martin, Prestia, Baker with Bolton rotating through. Better than majority of teams starting midfield groups I would have thought.

I expect a huge uplift in midfield performance under Yze, given he will actually be proactive around stoppage rather than the outdated plan Dimma and Dimma mk II redused to budge on in focussing purely on winning the ball back post stoppage clearance.

Forward line will contain Lynch, Balta, Bolton, Cumberland and sometimes Dusty. Plenty of forepower there.

No chance were bottom 4

Is Prestia going to be fit?

Biggest issue for mine is that Richmond were 18th for kicking efficiency in 2023.
16th for centre clearances.
1st for clangers.

They have to turn that around if they want to stay out of the bottom 4.

 

[carlton_99]

Nankervis, Taranto, Hopper, Martin, Prestia, Baker with Bolton rotating through. Better than majority of teams starting midfield groups I would have thought.

I expect a huge uplift in midfield performance under Yze, given he will actually be proactive around stoppage rather than the outdated plan Dimma and Dimma mk II redused to budge on in focussing purely on winning the ball back post stoppage clearance.

Forward line will contain Lynch, Balta, Bolton, Cumberland and sometimes Dusty. Plenty of forepower there.

No chance were bottom 4.

Richmond were by far the hardest team for me to place and like I said it wouldn't surprise me if they finished far higher.

On your midfield it is a bit one-paced with Taranto/Hopper/Martin/Prestia - I think more minutes for Bolton here is key (but then this may hurt your forward). Other than that you lack some depth when it comes to spreading from stoppage and delivering it i50. Prestia is also injury-prone and Martin is starting to get older (but can't doubt his ability).

On the forward line Lynch is just coming back from injury and you will likely need a 50-60 goal season from him to be competitive - hopefully Koschitzke helps out here. I love Balta as a defender but obviously has the athleticism and the kicking/marking-ability to be a good forward in time but not sure if you can count on 30+ goals from him just yet. In terms of medium-sized forwards and smalls it is mainly Bolton who would I prefer get minutes in the midfield and then the likes of Rioli and Cumberland who are still not established at the level.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Nankervis, Taranto, Hopper, Martin, Prestia, Baker with Bolton rotating through. Better than majority of teams starting midfield groups I would have thought.

I expect a huge uplift in midfield performance under Yze, given he will actually be proactive around stoppage rather than the outdated plan Dimma and Dimma mk II redused to budge on in focussing purely on winning the ball back post stoppage clearance.

Forward line will contain Lynch, Balta, Bolton, Cumberland and sometimes Dusty. Plenty of forepower there.

No chance were bottom 4.

Richmond are a reasonable chance of being bottom 4.

No guarantees they will avoid the bottom 4... particularly it Lynch is injured for a significant period of time.

 

[tiger_tough]

Is Prestia going to be fit?

Biggest issue for mine is that Richmond were 18th for kicking efficiency in 2023.
16th for centre clearances.
1st for clangers.

They have to turn that around if they want to stay out of the bottom 4.

I believe so. He hasn't missed much footy the last 2 years despite the public perception. Thomson Dow has been hyped up this pre season more than any other Richmond player so might not be the worst thing is he gets a run at it if Prestia misses. He would add something different to the midfield mix.

Apparently Yze has been focussing on footskills at training. Another thing Hardwick neglected for old faithful. There was a clip from last pre season where Jack was mic'd up and he says to Taranto 'just bang it on the boot, especially in the forward half' or something to that affect. Well Taranto certainly took his advice on board. Clearly gameplan was a major reason why we turned it over so much - gain territory at all cost. Which was to our detriment when we didn't have the team to execute like we did during the flags.

Richmond were by far the hardest team for me to place and like I said it wouldn't surprise me if they finished far higher.

On your midfield it is a bit one-paced with Taranto/Hopper/Martin/Prestia - I think more minutes for Bolton here is key (but then this may hurt your forward). Other than that you lack some depth when it comes to spreading from stoppage and delivering it i50. Prestia is also injury-prone and Martin is starting to get older (but can't doubt his ability).

On the forward line Lynch is just coming back from injury and you will likely need a 50-60 goal season from him to be competitive - hopefully Koschitzke helps out here. I love Balta as a defender but obviously has the athleticism and the kicking-ability to be a solid forward but not sure if you can count on 30+ goals from him just yet. In terms of medium-sized forward and smalls it is mainly Bolton who would I prefer get minutes in the midfield and then the likes of Rioli and Cumberland who are still not established at the level.

Agree with that. I was hoping Bolton would play full time mid and Dusty mostly forward but Yze has gone the other way. Baker has had his first pre season as a legit midfielder though so he could be handy in there.

Agree re Balta. He should be playing back.

There is alot of unknown. We shall see.

 

[tiger_tough]

Richmond are a reasonable chance of being bottom 4.

No guarantees they will avoid the bottom 4... particularly it Lynch is injured for a significant period of time.

Yeah Lynch is the key. Balta **** knows? Could kick 40+, could be back in defence by round 3.

 

[Joao]

1. Brisbane: Too good at home and really like the Doedee acquisition - one of the best (and most underrated) intercept defenders in the league
2. Carlton: Getting Zac Williams back plus some extra forward depth in Hollands and Fantasia will help out heaps - expect Harry to get back to his best kicking-wise as well. Need Weitering back ASAP - by far our most important player.
3. Collingwood: Schultz is a great pick-up and is a massive improvement on Ginnivan but do think the loss of McStay and his ability to bring the ball to ground for the crumbers will be hard to cover.
4. Sydney: Another year of experience for a pretty young team full of talent - Grundy also massive for their midfield. Expecting Logan McDonald to have a big year.
5. GWS: Showed how good they can be last year and have a spine as good as anyone's. If Hogan can perform consistently and kicking 50-60 goals they can easily finish top 4.
6. Melbourne: Will be up there again this year off their ridiculous backline led by May and Lever. Gawn back to solo ruck is dangerous for any opposition. Only reason I have them 6th is their forward does look weaker than the teams above them.
7. Adelaide: Love what they did last year and are another team that are incredibly tough to beat at home. Darcy Fogarty will establish himself as their best forward and kick 45-50 goals in 2024.
8. Western Bulldogs: Too much talent to not have them in my eight. Think Macrae back in the midfield and not playing that weird HF role will be massive for them. Expect Naughton and JUH to hit another level next year as well. Would have them as a top-4 contender if they had another strong key defender next to Jones.

9. Port Adelaide: Was a toss-up between them and the Dogs for 8th. Don't really rate any of their acquisitions that highly and still think their defence may struggle. But with Butters/Rozee firing the main team in my bottom 10 that could make the top-6 and it wouldn't surprise me.
10. Geelong: Midfield is a bit of a concern as most players there are ageing but their forward is very dangerous with Hawkins and Cameron fit. Will still be tough to beat at GMHBA and so expect them to be thereabouts this year.
11. Essendon: McKay is a massive upgrade on BZT and should help the defensive line immensely. Goldstein as well is still playing at a very high level. If Wright can have a good season and Langford remains consistent it wouldn't surprise me if they made the 8.
12. Gold Coast: There is always a boost to a team when they have a new coach but I just don't see them finishing in the top 8 this year. Don't think they have enough players that perform at a high level every week.
13. St Kilda: Ross Lyon's game plan will keep them close enough in most games but still think they lack the A-grade talent required to beat most teams I have in the top-10.
14. Hawthorn: Love what Sam Mitchell has done with this team - the recent injuries will hurt and I probably could have had them higher if it wasn't for that. Will be a nice to see Gunston and Breust in the same forward again and another year into Newcombe/Day.
15. North Melbourne: Have so much first-round talent it isn't funny but so much of it is in the midfield - was really surprised they didn't target more KPPs in the last couple of drafts. Still think they are short a key defender and a key forward to really take the next season but expect them to improve significantly from last year's season.
16. Richmond: Almost felt bad putting Richmond in 16th because they still have so many talented players on the team. For me they were the hardest team to place and it wouldn't surprise me if they finished in the top 10. Only reason I have them this low is their midfield and forward. Seems like there is a lot of reliance on Lynch (coming back from injury) and Taranto/Hopper.
17. Fremantle: They have a lot of good young talent in the midfield but just don't see how they can consistently kick a winning score. Top 3 goal kickers in 2023 were Amiss (gun), Schultz (traded) and Walters (ageing) - need others to step up.
18. West Coast: Can't put them anywhere else at this point but hopefully Reid has a great first year at the level and Yeo can stay healthy and impact in the middle.

Did you know that the Blues kicked less than 1 goal more per game than Freo in 2023? This is with the blues rocking the Coleman medalist whilst our oldest KPF was 21.

I would say the Blues are are better example of a team requiring a lift from multiple players in their forwardline, especially with top 4 aspirations. There's not a lot more Curnow can do.

I'm not remotely worried about our forwards if the team re-learns to defend properly and at least halve midfield battles (hopefully better).

 

[Cleansweep17]

Is Prestia going to be fit?

Biggest issue for mine is that Richmond were 18th for kicking efficiency in 2023.
16th for centre clearances.
1st for clangers.

They have to turn that around if they want to stay out of the bottom 4.

It’s not a big deal to cover Prestia apparently Dusty is going back to 80%+ mid. But I am worried about the fwd line Balta is going up there and Gibcus is replacing him in def. Could be the right move though, Balta’s brain fades cost us too much in def.

 

[carlton_99]

Did you know that the Blues kicked less than 1 goal more per game than Freo in 2023? This is with the blues rocking the Coleman medalist whilst our oldest KPF was 21.

I would say the Blues are are better example of a team requiring a lift from multiple players in their forwardline, especially with top 4 aspirations. There's not a lot more Curnow can do.

I'm not remotely worried about our forwards if the team re-learns to defend properly and at least halve midfield battles (hopefully better).

I agree that Carlton's weakest position in 2023 was clearly the forward line but it is also our most inexperienced line. I think McKay's goalkicking will improve back to his average and he should look at kicking 40-50 in 2024. Motlop in only his second season kicked 24 goals and I expect that to be closer to 30 this year. Similarly, Martin also averaged over a goal a game and think he will be in that 30+ range as well if he stays fit (crossing everything) . Then we added some depth in this area in the offseason with Fantasia who can easily kick a goal a game when fit and Hollands. Owies is just outside my best 23 atm but also averaged 1.5 goals in his 18 games so provides some good depth in that area. Carlton also pretty much got no goals from their midfield in 2023 - an area I expect to improve significantly in 2024.

With Freo my point was mainly down to losing Schultz who was your second best forward last year based on goals scored. Walters (your third highest goal scorer) is only declining and so it leaves a lot to a 20-year old key forward in Amiss. He might go and kick 65+ goals in 2024 and make up for those losses but that is asking for a lot.

Also on your points scored stat Carlton's season was clearly split into two vastly different halves and the points scored varied significantly between the two:
Rounds 1-13: 72.3 pts per game [between Rounds 8-13 it was an anaemic 56.2pts per game]
Rounds 14-24: 98.2 pts per game

Seemed they found some more offensive flair in the second half of the season which will hopefully carry over to 2024.

 

[Joao]

I agree that Carlton's weakest position in 2023 was clearly the forward line but it is also our most inexperienced line. I think McKay's goalkicking will improve back to his average and he should look at kicking 40-50 in 2024. Motlop in only his second season kicked 24 goals and I expect that to be closer to 30 this year. Similarly, Martin also averaged over a goal a game and think he will be in that 30+ range as well if he stays fit (crossing everything) . Then we added some depth in this area in the offseason with Fantasia who can easily kick a goal a game when fit and Hollands. Owies is just outside my best 23 atm but also averaged 1.5 goals in his 18 games so provides some good depth in that area. Carlton also pretty much got no goals from their midfield in 2023 - an area I expect to improve significantly in 2024.

With Freo my point was mainly down to losing Schultz who was your second best forward last year based on goals scored. Walters (your third highest goal scorer) is only declining and so it leaves a lot to a 20-year old key forward in Amiss. He might go and kick 65+ goals in 2024 and make up for those losses but that is asking for a lot.

Also on your points scored stat Carlton's season was clearly split into two vastly different halves and the points scored varied significantly between the two:
Rounds 1-13: 72.3 pts per game [between Rounds 8-13 it was an anaemic 56.2pts per game]
Rounds 14-24: 98.2 pts per game

Seemed they found some more offensive flair in the second half of the season which will hopefully carry over to 2024.

So your players will all improve but none of ours will? Even though our forwards are considerably younger than yours on average?

Why will Walters regress for sure but McKay is guaranteed to improve?

We also got no goals from midfield and I guess we won't but you magically will?

What quality is it that all your unproven players have that ours don't? Why didn't you mention Sturt who is a former 1st rounder that found form at the end of last year but you snuck in Owies?

Our season was clearly broken up into 3 segments as well with vastly different outputs, but you don't get the luxury of picking the parts you like. Why is it you are sure the carry over is to the post bye and not the pre-bye Carlton?

 

[carlton_99]

So your players will all improve but none of ours will? Even though our forwards are considerably younger than yours on average?

Why will Walters regress for sure but McKay is guaranteed to improve?

We also got no goals from midfield and I guess we won't but you magically will?

What quality is it that all your unproven players have that ours don't? Why didn't you mention Sturt who is a former 1st rounder that found form at the end of last year but you snuck in Owies?

Our season was clearly broken up into 3 segments as well with vastly different outputs, but you don't get the luxury of picking the parts you like.

1. I didn't sneak in Owies - he played the majority of the season (18 games) and scored 27 goals (i..e, 1.5 goals per game). I even noted that he wasn't in my best 23 this year so have him there as depth.

2. Not sure how Walters and McKay are in anyway alike - Walters I was expecting to decline given he is 33 years old and McKay is a former Coleman medallist who kicked 29 this year due to inaccuracy. Don't think expecting him to get closer to 40-50ish goals per season is that unreasonable given he kicked 103 goals over 2021 and 2022.

3. Also, never said your players won't improve but once again you lost your second-leading goalkicker so to get better with your offence you need to make up those goals plus add more. We didn't lose any of our forwards so any sort of internal improvement (plus the additions of Fantasia/Hollands) are just bonuses.

4. And on your last point about "picking parts you like" - is this not a prediction thread? Or am I expected to just know 100% what is going to happen? I predict that offensively we are unlikely to go through a 6-week patch where we can barely score 50pts.

 

[Joao]

1. I didn't sneak in Owies - he played the majority of the season (18 games) and scored 27 goals (i..e, 1.5 goals per game). I even noted that he wasn't in my best 23 this year so have him there as depth.

2. Not sure how Walters and McKay are in anyway alike - Walters I was expecting to decline given he is 33 years old and McKay is a former Coleman medallist who kicked 29 this year due to inaccuracy. Don't think expecting him to get closer to 40-50ish goals per season is that unreasonable given he kicked 103 goals over 2021 and 2022.

3. Also, never said your players won't improve but once again you lost your second-leading goalkicker so to get better with your offence you need to make up those goals plus add more. We didn't lose any of our forwards so any sort of internal improvement (plus the additions of Fantasia/Hollands) are just bonuses.

4. And on your last point about "picking parts you like" - is this not a prediction thread? Or am I expected to just know 100% what is going to happen? I predict that offensively we are unlikely to go through a 6-week patch where we can barely score 50pts.

Lets cut to the chase, your basically predicting every unknown factor to go against us and for you. Isn't it obvious why that might seem a little unreasonable?

I know its a prediction thread and I'm just querying your predictions, which as I understand it, is also allowed.