2024 Lead Up Races

[eth-dog]

I think the fact that Tadej probably can't afford to race between the Giro and Tour and then Jonas and Remco likely won't be doing the Dauphine or Suisse points to Roglic as favourite.

I would say that Bernal's form in Catalunya and Paris-Nice was the best it's been. Geoghegan Hart, S Yates, Carapaz and Mas all probably fancy the podium given the injuries though.

 

[Vader]

I think the fact that Tadej probably can't afford to race between the Giro and Tour and then Jonas and Remco likely won't be doing the Dauphine or Suisse points to Roglic as favourite.

I would say that Bernal's form in Catalunya and Paris-Nice was the best it's been. Geoghegan Hart, S Yates, Carapaz and Mas all probably fancy the podium given the injuries though.

I can't remember a TdF field that was this wide open in a long time. Normally it's easy to identify 1-2 red hot favourites, with the other riders fighting for bronze. This year there doesn't seem to be any individual rider who really stands out.

You may well be correct in calling Roglic. He's a level down on Jonas & Pog, but neither are expected to be at their peak for the Tour this year, so that could make Roglic the pick of the bunch. Even so, he's not exactly head and shoulders above the rest of the pack.

 

[eth-dog]

I can't remember a TdF field that was this wide open in a long time. Normally it's easy to identify 1-2 red hot favourites, with the other riders fighting for bronze. This year there doesn't seem to be any individual rider who really stands out.

You may well be correct in calling Roglic. He's a level down on Jonas & Pog, but neither are expected to be at their peak for the Tour this year, so that could make Roglic the pick of the bunch. Even so, he's not exactly head and shoulders above the rest of the pack.

When you consider that Bernal (if he rides this), Geoghegan Hart, Yates, Carapaz and Mas combined have finished ahead of Rogliç in a GT once (Carapaz in the 2019 Giro) from 2018 onwards when he first became a real GC rider. Carapaz the only one to have gotten within 3 minutes of him in GC in that time too.

The last time was 2011 for me. The top 6 (including Contador) were all incredibly close.

 

[Vader]

When you consider that Bernal (if he rides this), Geoghegan Hart, Yates, Carapaz and Mas combined have finished ahead of Rogliç in a GT once (Carapaz in the 2019 Giro) from 2018 onwards when he first became a real GC rider. Carapaz the only one to have gotten within 3 minutes of him in GC in that time too.

I rate Roglic ahead of those riders... but behind Jonas & Pog. I'd have him roughly on the same level as Remco.

 

[eth-dog]

I rate Roglic ahead of those riders... but behind Jonas & Pog. I'd have him roughly on the same level as Remco.

I have him ahead of Remco because Remco's bad days are 15+ minutes still.

 

[Orange Agent]

I think it takes a miracle for Vingegaard to start TDF. They should probably plan for Jorgensen to be leader. Pog should be unbackable odds for the Giro and a without any hiccups should start the Tour as favourite. Remco should have time to recover but this will be harder than anything he has done before. Roglic is made from cement, which is lucky because his riding skills just aren't good enough to stay upright for 3 weeks, he should podium due to consistency but needs luck to go any better than that.
At the Giro, aside from UAE, AG2R have ridden like a different team this year and the guys going to support O'Connor have been really good for him this year, definitely want to see him podium. I think it's the year Ineos hand over the reins, G has looked pretty average in the lead up and Arensmen or Sheffield if he starts should be their guys.

 

[Vader]

I think it takes a miracle for Vingegaard to start TDF. They should probably plan for Jorgensen to be leader. Pog should be unbackable odds for the Giro and a without any hiccups should start the Tour as favourite. Remco should have time to recover but this will be harder than anything he has done before. Roglic is made from cement, which is lucky because his riding skills just aren't good enough to stay upright for 3 weeks, he should podium due to consistency but needs luck to go any better than that.

The only reason I think Pog may struggle at the Tour is the difficulty of backing up after completing the Giro, which he would be a massive favourite to win. Nobody has won the Giro/Tour double since Pantani, in 1988.

If he gets through the Giro, then he'll have even more miles under his belt than he did last year - and we saw how hard it was for him in the 2023 Tour, with the races he did pre-Tour then.

At the Giro, aside from UAE, AG2R have ridden like a different team this year and the guys going to support O'Connor have been really good for him this year, definitely want to see him podium. I think it's the year Ineos hand over the reins, G has looked pretty average in the lead up and Arensmen or Sheffield if he starts should be their guys.

The support riders might be going great guns, but Ben O'Connor is still Ben O'Connor - a rider who is nowhere near the top flight of GC contenders. Don't get me wrong, he's an honest trier, who should be taking his opportunities whenever he can get into the breakaway. But he's never been capable of going with the main men when the roads go skywards.

The one time he did achieve a podium, it was on the back of taking 6 minutes in a breakaway, as a completely unknown rider. Now he's a known quantity, and they don't let him go unless he's already lost a lot of time (which he invariably does).

 

[eth-dog]

The Giro podium is wide open. There isn't really anyone that is more than a usual top 10 chance. Uijtedbroeks could be the guy

 

[yaco55]

Plapp and Dundar are riding Romandie - Very interested in seeing how Plapp goes in the ITT - There is a possibility that if Dunbar is not at the level he will be reserved for the TDF - Ewan will ride Eisborn Frankfurt three days before the Giro.

 

[eth-dog]

Who wins Romandie? Bernal, Hindley and Carapaz should be favourites IMO.

 

[Vader]

Who wins Romandie? Bernal, Hindley and Carapaz should be favourites IMO.

Not Hindley, if the results of LBL are anything to go by. Bernal & Carapaz finished in the MvdP group, 2:02 behind Pog. Hindley was a looong way behind, finishing in 52nd at 12:11.

 

[eth-dog]

Not Hindley, if the results of LBL are anything to go by. Bernal & Carapaz finished in the MvdP group, 2:02 behind Pog. Hindley was a looong way behind, finishing in 52nd at 12:11.

Hindley has never finished top 10 in a WT one day race ever, so I don't put too much stock in that. He finished 5th in Valenciana around 30 seconds back from McNulty and 3rd in TA around 90 seconds back from Jonas. Bernal has a 3rd in Catalunya (5 minutes behind Pog) and a 7th in Paris Nice (4 minutes back from Jorgensen).

Carapaz only has one top 10 stage race this year haha so might have to rethink that

 

[Vader]

Hindley has never finished top 10 in a WT one day race ever, so I don't put too much stock in that. He finished 5th in Valenciana around 30 seconds back from McNulty and 3rd in TA around 90 seconds back from Jonas. Bernal has a 3rd in Catalunya (5 minutes behind Pog) and a 7th in Paris Nice (4 minutes back from Jorgensen).

Carapaz only has one top 10 stage race this year haha so might have to rethink that

Must admit that I don't pay too much attention to a lot of races. So far this year I've watched Milan San-Remo, Roubaix, Flanders, Amstel Gold, Fleche Wallonne, and LBL. Not sure why I didn't get to see Strade Bianchi.

I don't tend to pay too much attention to the sem-Classics or most of the smaller tours, other than the Grand Tours.

 

[eth-dog]

Must admit that I don't pay too much attention to a lot of races. So far this year I've watched Milan San-Remo, Roubaix, Flanders, Amstel Gold, Fleche Wallonne, and LBL. Not sure why I didn't get to see Strade Bianchi.

I don't tend to pay too much attention to the sem-Classics or most of the smaller tours, other than the Grand Tours.

I tend to follow the WT races and the "better" 2.1 races like Valenciana, Andalucia, Tour of the Alps etc.

Strade maybe because you forgot it's a Saturday night race instead of a Sunday?

 

[Vader]

I tend to follow the WT races and the "better" 2.1 races like Valenciana, Andalucia, Tour of the Alps etc.

Strade maybe because you forgot it's a Saturday night race instead of a Sunday?

Possibly... I suspect I just didn't see it in the TV EPG.

 

[Orange Agent]

Who wins Romandie? Bernal, Hindley and Carapaz should be favourites IMO.

Someone from UAE. It will come down to whoever is leading after the TT.