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Training 2024 training updates.

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How many of those players have had their team make the PF and GF in the past 2 seasons?

Reef looks to be really coming on this pre season. Let's not forget that Fin had next to no pre season last year and still put up great numbers throughout 23.
7 of the 36 come from teams who have played off in grand finals in the 3 years these kids have been in the system.

If you used the teams that have played in the last 2 year GFs and PFs it would be 10 players.

if you used both the GF and PF in the last 2 years its only us of course.

I like the look of Reef as I have said, but he has to fire up soon, same for Finn
 
How's Jakob Ryan travelling?
Wasnt long ago, that he was pushing and eventual did break into the team as an 18 year old
Is he still being developed in defense?
Is it fair to rank the next general defenders to come in the side as Nobel, Ryan, Harry
 
How's Jakob Ryan travelling?
Wasnt long ago, that he was pushing and eventual did break into the team as an 18 year old
Is he still being developed in defense?
Is it fair to rank the next general defenders to come in the side as Nobel, Ryan, Harry
He's been in the rehab group, so has some type of injury.

Injury report 23/1/24

Young half-back Jakob Ryan experienced some discomfort with running on his return to training after the three-week break, with scans revealing minor bone bruising in his lower leg. The 19-year-old will look to start re-running this week and will be assessed on how quickly he can return to training.
 

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The problem with GC's theory is that it is tautological, that is, we define "good players" by the number of games they play, and the number of games you play in a career will be proportional to how many you get each season from the get go.

Of course the best players form day one will get games, and of course if they stay fit and continue to be good players they will get more games than a player that comes in after a longer apprenticeship.

The player who is a late bloomer will, again pretty much by definition, be rare, in comparison to the player who is good from the start, and they will, again pretty much by definition, end their careers on average with far fewer games when compared to a player who played games from year one, that's all just basic math.

So your comparing apples with oranges using GC's metrics, what you need to make a fair comparison is to define what a successful "late bloomer" looks like stats wise (i.e half the number of games as a "good player" etc) and then work out what the base probability is for such a player, i.e, they are definitionally rarer than the players who are good from day one.

The other problem with the argument is that it uses evidence that is again more or less definitional to attempt to make a prediction about individual players that is simply not warranted. Saying that a player is unlikely to make it because late bloomers are rare is just mixing up the question, which is; "what are the chances that, say, McInnes, is one of these, acknowledged to be rare, late bloomers?" You can't use the fact that late bloomers are rare compared to fast starters to tell you anything about the likelihood that a given player is a late bloomer, we already know they are not in the fast starter category, the question is if we have any reason to think that they might belong to the other category.

The third thing is that there are always players in a given team, even a premiership team, that no one would claim are "good players" in the career sense, Frampton has a medal, and did a decent job in his role, Jarryd Blair has a premiership medal, a good honest player nothing more, so the real question is whether or not some of these kids can play a role in an AFL side, long enough for us to find the next star in that position, not that they are that star.

In our current team a good example is Cameron, no star, but a pretty good role-player for us now, so much so that Begg and Steene get to develop their craft in the 2's for longer (which by GC's logic makes them less likely every week to make it as players), He was drafted by the Swans in 2016, managed 1 game in 2 years, then played about 10 for us in year three and frankly looked a likely bust, then in 2021 was a solid contributor as a second ruck and is now a premiership player.

At the end of his career will people put him in the class of "good players"? probably not, but those players will usually make up about 5-10 of a given 22, rising to maybe 12+ for sides winning flags and dominating eras.

You need to recruit both sets of players, the ones who are stars from day one and end up commanding 3/4 of your salary cap, and the ones who can play a role and who not too many will remember when they hang up the boots.

Fewer than one in 5 players that play an AFL game make it to 100 games. fewer than 1 in 10 make it to 150 games.

that means that any given player on debut is PROBABLY not going to make 100 games.

but PROBABILITY is an unreliable way to manage your list.

From a random reddit post:

As a point of reference for those interested 12581 people have played at least one AFL game.

Game MilestoneNumber Of Players To Reach MilestonePercentage Of Players To Reach Milestone
10771561.323%
50396831.540%
100221317.590%
15011439.085%
2005604.452%
2502341.860%
300830.660%
350150.119%
40040.032%
I found this information quite interesting in the end as less than a third of all players who ever play a game will reach the 50 game milestone that is often not highly regarded. In fact the median number for games played is just 19 games.

so if you manage to play 20 games of AFL you have played more games than most players in the history of AFL.
 
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Anyone at training see if the SSP's all there after they watched on from the last training session?
 
Anyone at training see if the SSP's all there after they watched on from the last training session?

I’d be keen to know as well. That said I don’t see any reason why the club would sign anybody two weeks ahead of the deadline…. In case of a serious injury or other setback may as well keep the options open for as long as allowable.

No doubt those players at the bottom of the list may have got the word that they probably won’t be listed unless something drastic changes. So seeing if there are any absentees might be noteworthy.
 
I’d be keen to know as well. That said I don’t see any reason why the club would sign anybody two weeks ahead of the deadline…. In case of a serious injury or other setback may as well keep the options open for as long as allowable.

No doubt those players at the bottom of the list may have got the word that they probably won’t be listed unless something drastic changes. So seeing if there are any absentees might be noteworthy.
Apparently all present today.
 
It's a good point. I don't know why I put "inside" in there, as I was also thinking of guys like Lippa, Adams and Pendles. Last year we ran with Lipinski, Mitchell, Adams, Sidey, even Josh doesn't fly.

I think that pace being a necessity isnt yet a midfield thing. You'd love them to all be able to run like Jordy, but there's definitely still a place in the midfield for blokes who are excellent at other things. I think game sense, awareness, skill and endurance are still king for mids.

Basically, I don't think a young Lippa or Tay would have gotten games in our current team. However, like you I'm a Macrae skeptic, just not to do with number of games played. Last year when I watched VFL, like Hustwaite, Finn looked like a good solid VFL player to me.
I can see the thinking, but I don’t see Macrae’s profile matching Lippa’s because Lippa is a proper runner just without the top end speed. Pendles is a good shout though and whilst I think he’ll be gunning to play week in week out I’d only be planning for 20 matches out of him ditto Mitchell. That would leave 10ish opportunities inside the best 23 for one of Macrae/ Sullivan/ Bytel barring other injuries which are of course inevitable, but will need to come from the midfield.

I tend to agree on an 18/19 yo Adams or Lippa breaking in, but I think the 22yo version of both were more likely than Macrae in much lesser teams. I also can’t shake the feeling that the train on guys can beat him out because they have outperformed him at VFL level. Overall I think those two are being undervalued in the discussion I’ve seen.
 
Only mcstay and Josh Daicos were not out there. But otherwise a full squad.


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IQ got a knock, limped off but luckily it was minor as he came back out with tape on his shin and finished the session. Looked concerning initially


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So Annabel must have gone back to training after missing some and here is a long report from Fb.

There was a bank of white cloud covering when all the coaches and Howe graced the arena at 9.15, but the sky was hardly glowering with shards of bright blue penetrating. Shortly thereafter, most of the remainder of the squad emerged.

The report from casualty reads as follows:
Clearly Josh Daicos was an in-patient today as he did not make an appearance, even to check out the weather which was favourable - the vista evident to fans, was alternately bathed in sunshine, or covered in slightly duller light.
Jakob Ryan participated in all of the early drills and became kicker for one which involved one on one duels. Later he undertook a lot of agility work with a trainer. He was wearing a bandage on his lower right leg.
Oleg spent the session running laps and doing some individual work with a trainer. Clearly he is nursing a niggle.

There were some near misses to alarm the reasonable number of fans who’d arrived to monitor training. About halfway through proceedings, IQ went down in a drill. He was assisted to his feet by teammates but was hobbling appreciably when upright. He started hopping and then was aided by a physio to leave the ground. When he was near the pavilion, he was explaining how the injury occurred and there was some speculation that it may be a PCL injury the way his knee banged into the turf. Fortunately, he re-entered the arena in time for the next major drill, after the whole group had been ushered inside, clearly for some instructions. He sported a square of tape just below the left knee. With the number of incidents occurring at training around the venues, his temporary absence was enough to give the onlookers pause.

Beau copped a heavy knock during stoppage training and remained on the ground before gingerly regaining his feet. Howe also was inconvenienced when knocked in a drill with the ‘big boys’ at the river end but resumed after a breather.

The SSP crew was in attendance again and striving hard as we move inexorably towards the decision deadline. There is some talk our call on these players may be imminent.

The long whistle for the commencement of training sounded at 9.25 and the first three groups reprised all recent sessions. The outer side was reserve for a high-octane warm-up which today featured aggressive jumping and hopping. In the middle there was tackling and evasion work taking place between two fluoro green poles. As it progressed there were two tacklers grappling with each target accompanied by a high volume as players screamed “Take him!” The coaches constantly asked them to reset. The third group at the John Cain Arena end honed their handball skills between yellow cones, with half the players donning yellow vests to create the competitive edge.

The groups rotated to provide exposure of the range of activities to all players.



This protracted phase of training was called warm-up fundamentals
As per usual, the whole squad reunited and sprinted between strategically placed cones, with the latter running tougher by virtue of the start being from a prostrate position which is clearly aimed at warming up the muscles even further and simulating match situations.

Therein followed an assembly of four groups with some undertaking tackling, some handballing, with those at the far end, mixing their skill base with some shots for goal. It is patently obvious that shooting for goal is one of the players’ favourite indulgence.
The players in the middle where there was a stoppage focus were likely suspects; Cox, Allan, JDG, Crisp and Pendles, with Cameron and Cox competing for the ruck. The smaller players would shark the hit outs and burst away with the ball.

At the JCA end there was an emphasis on spoiling, practising leading for the ball and competing in one-on-one duels.

The next stoppage group which rotated through the middle included: Begg and Steene who battled it out in the ruck, Sullivan, Nick, Pendles, Lippa, and Hustwaite who fought for the crumbs.

While this segment of training took place, the scoreboard illuminated the word FIGHT which appears to signify that everything has to be hotly contested, and the players put inordinate pressure on their opponents with even some latent aggression on display from WHE.

The combined groups all met in the centre and the whiteboard was held aloft for everyone’s perusal.

They then cleaved into two main groups with players at both ends paired with another – one had to be a forward, while one did the defending. They competed with gusto and there were some interesting match-ups, including: JDG/Mitch, Moore/Ash, Richards/Beau, Cox/Begg, WHE/Sofrinidis, Reef and Murphy. Ryan was the kicker to the river end.

Following this the players took a rehydration break some seemed overcome with lassitude as they were blowing hard and audibly gasping. Howe was down on his haunches, spraying jets of water over his head and saying “Suck it up!”

The players stood in a line facing McRae who showered praise on some, commending the efforts of individuals in training and imparting some pearls of wisdom for them to contemplate as they attacked their next bracket of drills.

The next was some mini-match play captained by six players who aren’t the putative leaders as three teams opposed each other and rotated. The alternative to the black or white tops were yellow, blue and green vests. It was here where IQ sustained his ‘false alarm’ injury.

This was willingly contested and profanities were borne on the wind as players battled for supremacy. When IQ walked from the ground, he showed the physio how the mishap occurred with his arms splayed explaining how he was pushing and then …

The scores were called by the coach overseeing each ‘match’ and very long whistle brought about the cessation of this energetic display.

Three groups again assembled with more focus on stoppage play in the middle and again the likely participants were: Beau, Crisp, Fin, Sidey, Allan Nick, Carmichael, Mitch and Hustwaite, w3ith Cox doing the bulk of the rucking. These stoppage set-ups appear to offer a preview of how we will be setting up once things get super serious.

At either end, the taller players competed for marks in packs with some occasional leading. There was then some half ground ball movement featuring overlapping groups.

The frequent wardrobe changes much to the chagrin of onlookers rendered identifying all the players at given moments an occupation fraught with vexation and laced with a liberal dose of mystery. Not only did they frequently change tops, from black to white, but they constantly mixed up the numbers on their backs.

Thereafter there was match simulation. Again the centre square configuration offered clues to our plans for the season but it was interesting to see Carmichael opposed to Sidey on a wing.

Cox rucked against Steene and Begg while it was instructive to see the likes of Fin and Allan getting so much practice in the middle, working with seasoned extractors like Mitch.







Random observations of players:

Q – it was great to see him rise – Lazarus like to move freely in the match simulation and play his defensive role with aplomb.
TJ – such a lissom athlete who glides over the turf and in the drills, he shimmied his way around targets. He is a paragon of elusiveness and in the match play he got the ball and used it with precision.
Nick – again shone in the match play, dobbing a long goal and impressing with his ubiquity and utility. If his popularity index was tested on the footy fan Stock Exchange, he would be more highly rated than most, with perhaps only Jamie at Collingwood threatening his top dog mantle.
Eyre – again looked solid and he nearly nailed a specci at the river end.

Sullivan – looks some chance of being listed and he’s clearly earmarked for the Adams role of being the high forward – the conduit between the middle and forwards, if he gets the gig.

Sofrinidis – thought he did all right in a spirited one on one duel with WHE in the marking and leading duels but he was relatively inconspicuous in the match simulation.

Begg – has to be rated as one of the big improvers this off-season. He is looking physically robust, is marking well but really showing out in rucking contests whereby he wins taps, some very accurately palmed, and on some occasions he follows his work up to impact the next contest.

Hill – moving like a treat, and manifesting that innate ability to know where the goals are but also execute well by foot.

Allan – while he fumbled one ball, his recovery was good and he continues to be prominent in the way he attacks drills and is involved in the match play.

Cameron – looks fitter than when he returned from injury halfway through last season. He’s manoeuvring his body well and his hands are vice-like.

Mitch – he has to be commended for how often he positions himself well to receive or hunt the ball, his footy nous is top notch.
Pendles and Sidey – evergreens who continue to approach training so professionally in their twilight years and show youngsters how to win the ball and dodge opponents.

Steene – takes the odd good grab and is learning the caper in the ruck but showing promise.
Checkers was pleasing to see him return to the fray and fit in seamlessly; he dobbed a major and was his customary unflustered presence.
Lippa – is unobtrusively show3ing that maybe some of his indifferent form last year may have been aberrant. He looks super fit and is running tirelessly, linking up with others and often kicking crisply.

After match simulation, it seemed to be a bit of players’ choice as they sauntered in desultory fashion to various sectors of the ground. Usually at this point, captain and coach have a lengthy conversation which perhaps is debrief of the morning’s proceedings.
 
Lots of comments last week about various people around the club talking up reef.... it crossed my mind when I read this a minute ago.
Not that I'm saying the reef doesnt deserve some credit but this kind of "positive reinforcement" has been around even in the good ol days when we werent so scientific with the psychology...

 
Imagine thinking that a future end of second round pick was too much to pay at the trade table for him 🫣 (guilty as charged)
Im not 100% sure but I believe it ended up being the 2023 pick 43 (Richmond) and we got a 3 pick upgrade from 43 to 40 in 2022 as well.
 
Training report: January 31st

Wednesdays are generally known as 'fight day' and that's what this morning was focused upon.

Fight.
Stoppage.
Contest.
Fight.
Fight.

Fight with your own.
Fight with those you are against.
What do you have in you? Let's find out.

It was more of a less a full squad on deck for a session in cool and windy conditions. Only Dan McStay and Josh Daicos were absent from this morning's festivities.

Back from his minor accident on the weekend, Maynard was free to resume full training, and he participated in every drill. Even match sim, so back from his shoulder injury he has been cleared to do it all. Good signs for the upcoming pre-season games which are not too far ahead of us now.

Ash Johnson too was back from whatever ailed him the last few sessions.

Jakob Ryan continued to work himself back from his shin issue he had previously been dealing with. He did some running, change in direction and helped out with some drills. He wouldn't be too far away from resuming.

Markov, I noticed just did a running session away from the squad. He didn't seem to be worried about anything physically, so maybe just a bit of deloading more than anything that's wrong with him.

-- >

They worked through some rotations, and one of them near me was stoppage work including the likes of Lippa, Carmichael, Bytel, Hustwaite, Allan, even the likes of Beau was included in this specific drill.



The group also separated in 2-3 individual teams where they would work through a handball game, that required running through a 20-30 metre passage from one end to another, you must handball to your teammate without getting caught out by the opposition.

In between drills and before and after match play the talls would have to do 1v1 fight drills against one another. Sometimes it was forwards v defenders, and sometimes it was forwards v forwards and defenders v defenders.

Then there was around 15-20 mins of match play to end the session. The teams were mixed up, I assume they have been doing this all pre-season so to make the teams even on both sides so not to have a one dominant side and one who cant' score.

The teams went as follows:

Black forwards:
Teakle
Reef
Kreuger
Schultz
Richards
Beau.

v

White Defenders.

Eyre
Frampton
Dean
WHE
Maynard
TJ


Midfield

Black:
Sullivan
Pendles
Nick
Carmichael & Allan on Wing.
Cox


White:
Jordy
Fin
Mitchell
Sidey & Hustwaite on wings
Steene ruck

White forwards:

Jamie
Johnson
Hill
HH
Bytel
checkers

Black defenders:
IQ
Noble
Crisp
Sofronidis
Moore
Howe


I thought Lachie Sullivan looked really impressive. What he can do an an extractor, and then push forward. He's big body physic He's able to push through packs and through contests.
I've really started to notice him a lot more post xmas.

IQ had a minor issue when he got a knock during the handball game, I was initially concerned, but thankfully he was able to come back on and finish off the season; abeit with tape around his shin.

Kreuger did some good things, you start to have hope he can have some sort of impact this season, but then you always worry he'll get injured any moment now.

Noble was active in defence, and around up and around the midfield.

Allan I thought was really good. Minus a couple mistakes, but thought his use of the footy and his run along the wing was really strong.

Harrison is looking good. The way he'll just speed past any opponent and ran into F50 with ease, it's a sight to see sometimes. He's one to look out for.

Eyre was solid and almost took this huge mark over the top of a couple players as it came into D50, but given the ball basically landed in between his hands and forearms, when he came down to ground, it spilled out of his hands. But geez it was exciting to watch at the time.











 
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