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Brownlow 2025 Brownlow - Matt Rowell Wins!

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GC2015

Norm Smith Medallist
May 27, 2013
9,584
12,182
AFL Club
Gold Coast
Just caught a segment on Channel 7's Sunday Footy Feast and they were discussing Noah Anderson's inclusion in the starting midfield of their predicted 2025 All-Australian team. They also mentioned Noz is a sneaky chance to win the Brownlow this year given how many games we've won and how well he's performed this year. Considering Rowell also started the season really well and Touk is working his way into the season, it got me thinking that it could be fun to discuss our Brownlow chances this year and make predictions about who will receive votes and how many they will get week to week. Keeping in mind that we're one game behind other clubs so our players have the potential to get as many as six votes in the final round of the season.

So the AFL website's Brownlow predictor has Jordan Dawson currently leading the count with 17 votes and Max Gawn + Zach Merrett + Lachie Neale in second place with 14 votes as well as Nick Daicos + Hugh McCluggage + Bailey Smith equal fifth place with 13 votes. It currently looks like this for our players:

PlayerORR1R2R3R4R5R6R7R8R9R10R11R12TOTAL
Noah AndersonPP3BYE2-1----33-12
Matt RowellPP1BYE3-3----2--9
Touk MillerPP-BYE1-211---1-6

Our wins and losses are colour coded in the table above. So, hypothetically, Noah could be 2nd in the Brownlow and just 2 votes behind the leader Jordan Dawson if he goes on to get the 3 votes in our postponed home game against Essendon and that would take his current tally to 15 votes. I question some of those vote predictions for our players on the AFL website considering there are rounds in which we won and our big 3 didn't get any votes like round 4 and round 9. Winning the game seems to be a factor that's considered when it comes to who the umpires vote for at the end of each game and I reckon our guys are going to receive more votes than people think for that reason, considering we've won plenty of games so far this season. I'd also say there's some performances in losses that could net votes as well like Noah's 32 disposal, 11 contested possession, 9 clearance, 10 i50, 3 tackle performance against Richmond in round 6.

What do you guys think? Is Noah a genuine chance to win the Brownlow this year? Can Rowell / Touk finish the season strongly and give himself a chance to be up there? We've got lots of home games to come in the second half of the season and I hope that's something that spurs our players on to big performances that will hopefully result in Brownlow votes. Let's discuss it as we go on through the season and feel free to make your own predictions about votes to date.
 
The ESPN Brownlow Predictor has a different take on the Brownlow race so far and they claim to have correctly predicted 8 of the last 11 Brownlow winners. This is what their top 5 looks like after 12 rounds (11 for Noz):

PlayerORR1R2R3R4R5R6R7R8R9R10R11R12TOTAL
Jordan Dawson-32.5-0.5-2-2.5-33-16.5
Bailey Smith-3--1221.52-0.50.5315.5
Noah AndersonPP3BYE1.5-1.51---32.52.515
Nick Daicos-22.5BYE1230.50.5--2114.5
Hugh McCluggage---232--1.5--2313.5

That's more in line with the bookies in terms of the top 4. If this is true then it means Noah is an enormous chance considering he's played one less game than all the players listed in that top 5. The fact that Noz may have secured 9 Brownlow votes over the last 3 weeks means he's absolutely one to watch for the Brownlow this year. Hopefully he keeps up his good form in the second half of the year!

For anyone curious, ESPN has Touk at 11 votes (as opposed to AFL.com.au's 6 votes for Touk) so he's not out of the race either. A big second half of the season could see Touk right up there as well. Rowell is much lower on ESPN's prediction list.
 
The updated ESPN Brownlow Predictor now has Noz (17) just a single vote behind first placed Bailey Smith (18) and equal second with Jordan Dawson (17). Keeping in mind that we've played two less games than Geelong and one less game than Adelaide. So that suggests Noah is in a fantastic position to really challenge for the Brownlow this year. Here's the updated top 5 round for round breakdown at the end of round 15:

PlayerORR1R2R3R4R5R6R7R8R9R10R11R12R13R14R15TOTAL
Bailey Smith-3--1221.52-0.50.53-2.5-18
Noah AndersonPP3BYE1.5-1.51---32.52.5-BYE217
Jordan Dawson-32.5-0.5-2-2.5-33-0.5-BYE17
Nick Daicos-22.5BYE1230.50.5--21-BYE216.5
Caleb Serong---33--1--1.51.51BYE2.5215.5

10 more games to go for Noz and his nearest competition have either 8 or 9 games to go. Can Noah do it? I personally think he's a huge chance considering his current form (likely 10 votes in his last 5 games) AND we're about to play a lot of games at home where he proved many times last year that he plays really well and gets votes at PFS. What do you guys think?
 
Did Noah become the Brownlow favourite after tonight's performance? Nick Daicos wouldn't have received any votes for that game and Noz would've got at least 2.
 

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Interesting time to revisit this thread. AFL.com.au and ESPN have Nick Daicos three votes ahead of Noah and you'd think that lead will remain considering Nick Daicos just dominated against Richmond and Noah put on a masterclass against Brisbane yesterday. Jacob Dawson was also likely a vote or two ahead of Noah going into this round and he definitely was not best on for the Crows yesterday with Siligo and Peatling taking the spoils. So it's possible Noah is currently equal with Dawson in the Brownlow count and they're both 2 or 3 votes behind Daicos. That's essentially where it sits right now and round 21 is going to be crucial considering Collingwood play Brisbane, Adelaide play Hawthorn and we play Richmond. If Brisbane can find a way to keep Daicos quiet next week then look out because Noah is in ridiculous form and may put up some crazy numbers next week against the Tigers. It's also important to point out that we still have a game in hand so Noah may actually be the equal leader in the Brownlow when you take that into consideration and what's likely to happen in that upcoming Essendon game.

There's also the steam train that is Matt Rowell finishing the season really strongly. AFL.com.au's Brownlow predictor has Rowell on 18 votes going into the Brisbane game and it's not a stretch to suggest he took all three votes yesterday. So Rowell may well be on 21 votes right now with a game in hand. Daicos + Dawson are predicted to be around the 23-25 and Noah around the 21-22 vote mark vote mark going into this round so you can see Rowell is very quickly closing the gap and potentially giving himself a chance to win the Charlie considering he probably has 21ish votes with a game in hand. Do we dare to dream of a podium 1-2 finish for Anderson and Rowell in the Brownlow this year?

5 games to go and potentially as many as 15 Brownlow votes still up for grabs for our boys. Let's go!
 
I know Noah gets most of the kudos for his captaincy and possible Brownlow votes but I cannot believe how much of a privilege it has been in the last two home games to watch Matt Rowell live representing my GC team.
 
I know Noah gets most of the kudos for his captaincy and possible Brownlow votes but I cannot believe how much of a privilege it has been in the last two home games to watch Matt Rowell live representing my GC team.
You wonder if the contract issues were playing on his mind a bit because since he signed he has gone nuclear
 
Top 5 in AFL.com.au's Brownlow predictor is pretty interesting now, especially when you consider both Noz and Rowelly have a game in hand and can gain an extra 3 votes when compared to the others. If Brisbane/Dunkley can keep Nick Daicos quiet this week then you'd have to think the race for the Brownlow is well and truly on between Noah and Daicos. Also, Rowelly is the smokey and is finishing the season very strongly. Some may say don't count out Jacob Dawson but you can see he's only predicted to have gained one vote in the last five games so he seems to be falling away in that sense, just like Bailey Smith. The wildcard is obviously Tom Green if GWS can keep winning. Should be a fascinating count on Brownlow night!

1H5U8uA.jpg
 
Rowell Anderson tie please

And daicos for the school pic would be iconic
Three way tie for the Brownlow between the Carey boys Daicos, Anderson and Rowell? Even if they finish 1st, 2nd and 3rd it would be a cool story. No doubt Rowelly will take Jeppo as his plus one and they'll recreate the famous school pic:

lZbjzvG.jpg
 
2nd Brownlow favourite Anderson gets the 3 votes today and Rowell likely gets the 2. Crucially, Nick Daicos will get zero votes tonight. Our boys could be on!
I went Rowell 3 , Noah Anderson 2

Noah with the slightly quieter 1st half. Game was gone by half-time.
 

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I went Rowell 3 , Noah Anderson 2

Noah with the slightly quieter 1st half. Game was gone by half-time.
That's fine. The main point was that Daicos got no votes last night and Anderson + Rowell did. So our boys should be right up there in the count and still have a game in hand. It's not unreasonable to suggest both should poll in our remaining four games of the season, meanwhile Daicos has to play against Hawthorn and Adelaide over the next fortnight and could miss out on votes.

It's exciting to know two of our players have a legit shot at winning the Brownlow with just a few games to go.
 
That's fine. The main point was that Daicos got no votes last night and Anderson + Rowell did. So our boys should be right up there in the count and still have a game in hand. It's not unreasonable to suggest both should poll in our remaining four games of the season, meanwhile Daicos has to play against Hawthorn and Adelaide over the next fortnight and could miss out on votes.

It's exciting to know two of our players have a legit shot at winning the Brownlow with just a few games to go.
Yep Rowell and Anderson will be right up in the count on Brownlow night.

Comms were saying in commentary last night , Noah Anderson would be a contender for All-Australian captaincy this season, and I wouldn't begrudge anyone. Id imagine possibly Dawson from Adelaide would be the other contender.
 
Butters s the bed today and in the last few is massive for Rowell AA too,

Rowell should clearly be in with Noah
 

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Not at all
Would be a chance of polling at least a vote in this match. He was very good in limiting Richmond from scoring at all on Saturday.

People talk up Harris Andrews for All-Australian Full back, but Collins has to be one of the contenders this season.
 

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Brownlow 2025 Brownlow - Matt Rowell Wins!

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