No Oppo Supporters 2025 General Discussion

[joeykanga]

Amazing to see that three of five currently unbeaten teams are from the last 4 teams to join the W competition. Hard to explain also. I don't think it was because we got ridiculous amounts of draft concessions. Could it be because we are younger and the younger talent is not just younger but also more talented (on average)? Of course the top 2 teams are well established, more experienced teams and I don't necessarily expect the ladder to look the same way at season's end. Partly I think it's a fluky anomaly but I don't think that entirely explains it.

I didn't watch the Brisbane-Carlton game but what does it mean that Brisbane have lost two out of three? Surely that was an upset? Aren't we expecting them to finish top 4? Perhaps that's now in question?

It looks like the close Carlton win over Collingwood in the earlier rounds stands up as a good form line for bpth teams ... Carlton looked really good and withstood the Brisbane comeback. In the Wshow they compared them to the Swans for entertainment value and they do play a similar style.
Abbie McKay is good value and Erone Fitzpatrick is really
crafty and dangerous up forward. They outplayed Brisbane at the Brisbane style.
And Collingwood did so well against Melbourne albeit Melbourne did have some big injury outs.
Melbourne big players are outstanding.
Hore, Bannon and Tayla Harris.

 

[joeykanga]

The Wrap: 'Box Office Blues' in the eight, injury sours North’s record-breaking feat

The Wrap: 'Box Office Blues' in the eight, injury sours North’s record-breaking feat

Kate McCarthy and Sarah Olle wrap up all the AFLW action following round three

www.afl.com.au

 

[Arwib]

I don't where I've been, maybe living under a rock?- but I had no clue GWS also play at Henson Park.

They're gradually giving up on Western Sydney and trying to just rebrand as a punky alternative Sydney team in general. See also: trying to play games at the SCG.

 

[Ticky009]

Next 2 games (Magpies 13th, GWS 18th) should be enough to cement us in the top 8.

The 4 games after that are against. A bit of travelling and if we can get a win against the Crows and Blues I'll be happy.
Crows 7th (Away)
Norf 1st (Away)
Blues 5th (Home)
Demons 3rd (Away)

 

[joeykanga]

A really nice rendition of the Melboirne song on the ground at the full time siren sang with indigenous vocals

 

[joeykanga]

Apparently it was created a few years back. It's beautiful. You can hear a little at the end.

Theme song gains local touch

It's a Grand Old Flag has been translated into Woiwurrung language

www.melbournefc.com.au

 

[Callipygian]

Why are the pressure ratings so much higher for the women than in the men's? The other day I saw that the average pressure rating for an AFLW game is something like 208 and I've seen ratings as high as the 230s for a quarter (I have no idea how they measure this by the way). Whereas in the men's competition that is almost off the scale high - only in the most intense finals do they get up to 208 pressure ratings. Can anyone explain this?

 

[liz]

Why are the pressure ratings so much higher for the women than in the men's? The other day I saw that the average pressure rating for an AFLW game is something like 208 and I've seen ratings as high as the 230s for a quarter (I have no idea how they measure this by the way). Whereas in the men's competition that is almost off the scale high - only in the most intense finals do they get up to 208 pressure ratings. Can anyone explain this?

Smaller grounds will be one element. Even with fewer players on the ground I reckon there’s less space per player (especially at a venue like NSO).

But I suggest a far better explanation is the relative skill levels of the two competitions. The women aren’t able to mark as consistently (even uncontested marks) nor dispose of the ball with the same accuracy. That means the ball is in dispute for a much higher proportion of the game, thereby providing more opportunities to apply pressure.

Apart from games where both teams show up in the mood for bruise-free footy, in the men’s competition the matches with low pressure ratings tend to be those with lots of short kicks and uncontested marks, which is consistent for my (guessed) explanation above.

 

[Kiama Chris]

Smaller grounds will be one element. Even with fewer players on the ground I reckon there’s less space per player (especially at a venue like NSO).

But I suggest a far better explanation is the relative skill levels of the two competitions. The women aren’t able to mark as consistently (even uncontested marks) nor dispose of the ball with the same accuracy. That means the ball is in dispute for a much higher proportion of the game, thereby providing more opportunities to apply pressure.

Apart from games where both teams show up in the mood for bruise-free footy, in the men’s competition the matches with low pressure ratings tend to be those with lots of short kicks and uncontested marks, which is consistent for my (guessed) explanation above.

Here's the formula. My interpretation is that the players are closer together.

This key stat AFL clubs ‘deeply believe in’. Here’s how it’s calculated and what it actually means

This key stat AFL clubs ‘deeply believe in’. Here’s how it’s calculated and what it actually means

www.foxsports.com.au

Redirect Notice

 

[Callipygian]

Smaller grounds will be one element. Even with fewer players on the ground I reckon there’s less space per player (especially at a venue like NSO).

But I suggest a far better explanation is the relative skill levels of the two competitions. The women aren’t able to mark as consistently (even uncontested marks) nor dispose of the ball with the same accuracy. That means the ball is in dispute for a much higher proportion of the game, thereby providing more opportunities to apply pressure.

Apart from games where both teams show up in the mood for bruise-free footy, in the men’s competition the matches with low pressure ratings tend to be those with lots of short kicks and uncontested marks, which is consistent for my (guessed) explanation above.

Thanks liz . I got a similar response to posting the same query on the main board so that seems to be the consensus answer.

Thanks also to Kiama Chris for posting that article that explains how a pressure rating is calculated. I didn't see the video there but I searched for it and found it here:

 

[Callipygian]

I was in Melbourne this weekend and so unfortunately missed the derby - looked like a great day of footy, pity about the result!

However I compensated by attending a different W game - I went to Demons-Eagles at Casey Fields (who knew that Casey Fields is so far from the centre of town!). Unfortunately it wasn't much of a spectacle, but it was an interesting experience of W footy in Melbourne.

The match day experience was inferior to a typical game at Henson for a number of reasons including:

* the weather - it was a cool, dull day with showers (in fact it started bucketing down just after the match finished). By contrast there was glorious sunshine in Sydney.

* the crowd - there were way fewer people than at Henson park despite footy supposedly being a religion in Melbourne (on the weekend 1557 at Casey Fields v 7171 at Henson even if that was a worse split than usual). I think this has to be partly due to how far out the ground is (it's effectively further than Penrith or Campbelltown is because (a) it takes longer to drive from the CBD; and (b) much of Melbourne is on the other side of the CBD whereas we only have ocean on the side of the CBD so fewer people would have a ridiculously long journey to get there (like travelling to Campbelltown from Northern beaches). Also, I'm not sure if I was imagining it but the crowd seemed to have an older average age than we would. I think the Swans W team has attracted a lot of new eyeballs to footy whereas the Demons are followed predominantly by rusted on hardcore Demons fans.

* the actual venue - I suddenly appreciated how special Henson is to have large grass areas sitting above the playing field. Casey Fields is your typical footy oval which is highest in the centre square, gently sloping towards the boundaries and then surrounded by some low rise seating and a small embankment (comparable to those near Tramway oval outside the SCG but a bit more extensive). Whereas Henson is so fantastic in the way thousands can spread out on the picnic rugs on the hills to watch and enjoy the footy. BISP is comparable in being far removed from the city centre but has way superior viewing, also with significant hills around the ground. I also used to love it when we would have reserves matches at Drummoyne which, as well as having a hill, had views of the harbour and trees etc.

* the vibe - much more low key and less crowd involvement (probably relevant that it was such a lopsided match) even though the home side was winning. There were some of those same sorts of 'activation sites' for kids etc that we have but they looke relatively quiet and miserable. The queues for food and drink were much better at Casey Fields because of the smaller crowds. They probably didn't run out of beer like when I was at Henson for the Freo game.

So, what I learned is how good we have it going to the footy in Sydney. Plus we have a really competitive and exciting team to watch that generally give their all and make us proud.

I didn't learn much about the Eagles. They didn't put up as much resistance as I'd hoped. They didn't really look like scoring a goal for most of the match and indeed they didn't score any goals until junk time in the 4th quarter. I saw scorelines like 48-3 (near halftime) and 64-4 come and go. I think Demons got into the 70s before Eagles finally got a goal.

I learned that the Demons have an extremely potent attack as well as being generally strong across the ground. They have a much taller and more hardened team than we do. Their attack comprises Eden Zanker, Tayla Harris, Alyssa Bannon and Kate Hore plus assorted others and is formidable. They also have talls like Tahlia Gillard (190 cm), Saraid Taylor (183 cm) and Molly O'Hehir (180 cm) running around in defence.

It's not news that we need to get some height into our list and it was interesting to hear Scott Gowans acknowledge in his recent interview on the True Bloods podcast where he acknowledged that while he considered Zippy the at least equally most talented player in last year's draft we might have chosen a different player based on need if we could have had anyone (i.e. Harris and probably Centra - I think he implied that Fish was ranked third on our draft board not because of her talent but more because of our list need (i.e. height) - however I think he started off saying this more clearly and then decided it was more sensible to be less explicit).

 

[Callipygian]

Which teams are going to make finals? Will we?

This article analyses the question: https://www.afl.com.au/aflw/news/1438654/the-run-home-who-makes-aflw-finals-amid-ladder-logjam. However, I'm going to do a deeper dive on our chances.

Probably we need to win 3 of our remaining matches. I'm not confident we will given our recent form. Our match against Carlton this weekend is absolutely critical and hopefully we know that and will come out desperate. I don't like our chances against the Demons away from home - I think their attack is too strong for us. I don't take for granted either of our matches against Essendon or West Coast either. If we can win one of our next two then I think our match against West Coast becomes critical for both teams. If we beat both Carlton and West Coast (effectively 8 point matches), we might be able to make finals even if we lose to the Demons and Bombers.

Currently the top 8 is:

North
Melbourne
Hawthorn
Carlton
Brisbane
West Coast
Adelaide
St Kilda

I think based on form and fixture, West Coast and St Kilda are the most vulnerable teams that could lose their place in the 8.

Then you have

Swans
Geelong
Port
Essendon
Fremantle

Who could potentially contend for the other spots. I think we are the most likely of those, and only Geelong has a semi-decent chance of jumping over us (due to their easier remaining fixture) but I don't think they will because they are points and percentage behind us - that could change if we are destroyed by the Demons.

St Kilda have a similar fixture to us: one they can expect to lose (v North), two they'll be favourites for but can't take for granted (Collingwood, Bulldogs) and a match against Carlton. Who is flakier - us or them? They've got a win in front of us but our percentage is better if we can win an extra match.

West Coast have a really tough remaining fixture. They have no easy games, facing Adelaide, Geelong, us and Carlton.

Accordingly, the remaining matches this season that I think will have the biggest bearing on whether we play finals (apart from our own) are: all West Coast's matches and Saints v Carlton Round 10.

****
Having done this deeper dive, I'm slightly more bullish about our chances than before doing it - but I still think beating Carlton this weekend is crucial. If we lose to both Carlton and Melbourne we're on a wing and a prayer even if we beat West Coast and Essendon.

I also conclude that only us and Geelong are realistic chances of getting back into the 8 of the teams currently outside the 8 and West Coast and Saints are the teams most vulnerable to slipping out.

 

[liz]

It's not news that we need to get some height into our list and it was interesting to hear Scott Gowans acknowledge in his recent interview on the True Bloods podcast where he acknowledged that while he considered Zippy the at least equally most talented player in last year's draft we might have chosen a different player based on need if we could have had anyone (i.e. Harris and probably Centra - I think he implied that Fish was ranked third on our draft board not because of her talent but more because of our list need (i.e. height) - however I think he started off saying this more clearly and then decided it was more sensible to be less explicit).

I was nonplussed when we drafted Zippy last year because, even outside Harris and Centra, there were some decent sounding talls available. But having enjoyed her contributions for half a season, I wouldn’t swap her for anything. Especially after watching our best talls drop simple uncontested marks last weekend, while Zippy can float on air and pluck the ball from anywhere.

 

[Callipygian]

I was nonplussed when we drafted Zippy last year because, even outside Harris and Centra, there were some decent sounding talls available. But having enjoyed her contributions for half a season, I wouldn’t swap her for anything. Especially after watching our best talls drop simple to mcibtested marks last weekend, while Zippy can float on air and pluck the ball from anywhere.

Agreed.

The only other thing is we have to hope we can convince her to stay in Sydney after her two years are up. I'm optimistic but, if not, you'd think we'd get a good trade return (although maybe not great if she's out of contract and wanting out).

 

[Kiama Chris]

I was nonplussed when we drafted Zippy last year because, even outside Harris and Centra, there were some decent sounding talls available. But having enjoyed her contributions for half a season, I wouldn’t swap her for anything. Especially after watching our best talls drop simple to mcibtested marks last weekend, while Zippy can float on air and pluck the ball from anywhere.

A really classy player with talent and tons of effort to make up for her tiny size. I was originally concerned that she might struggle a bit far from home and family but it seems to have worked well and many props to her dad in particular.

 

[Jack Lord]

A really classy player with talent and tons of effort to make up for her tiny size. I was originally concerned that she might struggle a bit far from home and family but it seems to have worked well and many props to her dad in particular.

But what about when her dad goes home? He and Zip seem to be very close. I hope she has the support around her and that she's building friendships that will convince her to stay. I suspect those WA clubs won't be shy about courting our Zippy.

 

[Kiama Chris]

But what about when her dad goes home? He and Zip seem to be very close. I hope she has the support around her and that she's building friendships that will convince her to stay. I suspect those WA clubs won't be shy about courting our Zippy.

We need to trust that Dad has helped her settle, then moves on, as most good parents do. She seems to have blended well into the group, most of whom come from interstate.

 

[liz]

Might help that most of her family aren’t actually in Perth. So even if she were living there, she’d still be a fair way away.

 

[Callipygian]

Might help that most of her family aren’t actually in Perth. So even if she were living there, she’d still be a fair way away.

It's a little bit unclear. She grew up in Newman but relocated to Perth many years ago, presumably not on her own.

 

[Callipygian]

I've heard talk about the AFL opening up an additional list spot for an NGA type player (I think it was on the W show). Any increase in list size is exciting and an investment in improving the game. And doing it via an NGA style program helps to improve diversity which is also desirable for the growth of the game (if that's something you favour).

 

[Kiama Chris]

I've heard talk about the AFL opening up an additional list spot for an NGA type player (I think it was on the W show). Any increase in list size is exciting and an investment in improving the game. And doing it via an NGA style program helps to improve diversity which is also desirable for the growth of the game (if that's something you favour).

Could do it on a state, rather than club basis and the AFL pays for it. Hard to move away from community.

 

[SwansProudly]

2026 Season
12 week home and away
11 May - baseline physical testing – will start, week later full preseason for 3 months
10 Aug - round 1
2 Nov - finals
28 Nov - Grand Final (locked in for the foreseeable future, to provide certainty to clubs and fans alike

AFLW confirms number of rounds, start date for 2026 season

The 2026 AFLW season will begin in August again with finals to start in November

www.afl.com.au

 

[Callipygian]

FWIW, my thoughts about how the 8 is shaping up:

* I think North, Demons, Hawthorn, Brisbane finish top 4, most likely in that order (although if Brisbane can beat Melbourne then they'll more likely finish 3rd);

* I think most likely Adelaide and Saints finish 5th and 6th (this is contingent on Adelaide beating Port in the Showdown next week, which should be a cracker).

Then, if we can beat West Coast, Carlton can beat Bulldogs and West Coast can beat Carlton and we beat the Dons, all three teams will finish level on 28 points and the percentages will determine who finishes 7th, 8th and 9th. Those results are by no means givens but they are possibly the most plausible. If all of that should come to pass (which is about as likely as any multi) then I'd prefer to play Saints than Crows week 1, especially with the injuries Saints have copped. A win there might lead to a semi-final with Hawthorn, which would definitely be the easiest path to a prelim. And that's the limit of what I think we could hope to achieve.

 

[Callipygian]

If we had a random questions and comments thread, this post would belong there. But we don't. So...

I have the impression that there are more unpredictable bounces of the ball in AFLW. Do others agree?

I have the hypothesis that this could be related to the ball being smaller. What do others think?
An alternate hypothesis is that due to the women's skills being less honed than the men's the execution of the kicks contributes to the ball landing and bouncing less predictably.

Thoughts?

 

[Kiama Chris]

If we had a random questions and comments thread, this post would belong there. But we don't. So...

I have the impression that there are more unpredictable bounces of the ball in AFLW. Do others agree?

I have the hypothesis that this could be related to the ball being smaller. What do others think?
An alternate hypothesis is that due to the women's skills being less honed than the men's the execution of the kicks contributes to the ball landing and bouncing less predictably.

Thoughts?

Can't say whether or not the ball bounces less predictably but the smaller ball does give sharper surface angles, particularly at the ends so it's possible. Also, the men have a lifetime judging the bounce, few women do so that may be a factor. Possibly the flight of mens' kicks might be truer. All supposition.