Analysis 2026 - The Way Forward

[rustycrate]

Buddy also came on top of the Tippet trade the year before. It didn’t fulfil a need. We should have not traded for Tippet and only got Buddy (but we didn’t know how interested Buddy was at the time).

Buddy’s contract was also much larger as a proportion of the cap, as well as longer as you point out. I have no idea of salary levels, but I reckon we come out ahead on the cap by losing Florent and Hayward and gaining Curnow.

I think Buddy was paid a lot out of that other bucket. Each club gets a million or so for promotion or whatever. It is not part of the cap.

 

[Dubai Quacker]

The Tippett trade was planned and executed, then damaged by the shenanigans by Adelaide with their cap that saw him suspended. It was a good piece of recruitment.
The Franklin trade was like Adams - fell into our lap - but as you say made the Tippett acquisition redundant. Mucked us up for years, despite the value he added as a player.
The Curnow trade is nice and straightforward, even if the price was a bit high, but we shouldn't count Florent into that equation, just Hayward. He's incidental, but the overall effect is probably as you say.

I feel like Curnow was needed to make us a genuine flag threat, whereas Buddy was perhaps also about publicity and revenues. As you pointed out, we already had Tippett & I didn’t feel like we needed another big rooster in the henhouse at the time.

But if Curnow can stay healthy, I reckon he’s going to be a huge boost - because our forward line has been pretty toothless for years & we can’t always rely on the mids to outperform in the goal kicking aspect of the game.

I’m pretty hyped to see Charlie in red & white.

 

[bloodsbigot]

I’m not quite sure why - but when we signed Buddy I thought “oh no, we’ve sold the farm”.
But when we signed Curnow I thought “worth a try”.

I think it’s the length of contract that worried me with Buddy.

Well there are big differences.

For example, we're not particularly breaking the bank to get Curnow like we did with Buddy, since Curnow was even willing to take a paycut to get out of Carlton.

And WE selected the players to get rid of, similar to the Dempster/Schneider trade, whereas with Buddy we didn't really have much choice who we lost.

And like you say Buddy's contract was 10 year and Curnow's is... What? 3?

 

[bloodsbigot]

Imo Cox won’t and isn’t good enough, hopefully this bites me

I'm not sold either.

 

[Kiama Chris]

As I'll be missing all of February (returning just in time for Round 0 ) I've been giving a lot of thought to what I think our best team mid-season would look like. Of course it assumes no injuries. In some cases (eg Ladhams for Grundy) the replacement is obvious. Others less so. Not going there, it's just too hard. Maybe another day. It also assumes that no-one's form falls in a hole. .
Defence: 7 one on bench
Lockdown Tall: Melican, Edwards
Interceptor: McCartin
Exit Medium: Blakey
Medium: Serong
Lockdown Small: Cunningham, Wicks
Pluses: Defence orientation, tall enough, internal versatility (bench or injury cover).
Minuses: Exit options, leadership/organisation, possibly too tall.
Alternatively Rampe, Bice or Roberts replace Edwards and Serong plays tall.
Attack: 7 one on bench
Tall Forward: Curnow, McDonald
Relief Ruck/Tall Forward: McLean
Small Forward: Papley, Rosas, Dattoli, Campbell
The big debate is two vs three tall forwards. I favour two. Others will differ and will need to leave out one of the small forwards.
Pluses: more active, fast, unpredictable, hopefully better forward defensive pressure
Minuses: can we get enough goals from the smalls? Will we be too easily beaten in the air?
Ruck: 1
Grundy duh!
Inside: 4
Mills, Heeney, Rowbottom, Sheldrick
Outside/Wing: 4
Gulden, McInerney, Warner, Jordon
Roles will probably vary quite a bit.
A midfielder (eg Cleary) could replace a small forward to take a more defensive stance.
You will note the absence of Rampe and Lloyd. IMO the future players need to learn to work together and hopefully Rampe will act as a mentor through training and VFL or if things go awry. I think the team is stronger without Lloyd.
Smokey (not mentioned): Snell, Hanily, Cleary as a mid, Cootee as a small forward.
Others only single games to cover injury.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

Well there are big differences.

For example, we're not particularly breaking the bank to get Curnow like we did with Buddy, since Curnow was even willing to take a paycut to get out of Carlton.

And WE selected the players to get rid of, similar to the Dempster/Schneider trade, whereas with Buddy we didn't really have much choice who we lost.

And like you say Buddy's contract was 10 year and Curnow's is... What? 3?

Also at the time our contract was unheard of and the cap was what 7 million less?

Then came the collateral from Franklin inclusion we had to shed 7-8 players and had to give away Mumford to a rival for nothing(contract not offered).

Where as Curnow we lost 2 best 22 starters who Cox deemed expendable to the side(rightly or wrongly) and draft picks which are heavily compromised due to a expansion side.

 

[Jewelsbon]

Time will tell

Definitely think will have to get a flag in the next 2 years otherwise we are cooked

Imo Cox won’t and isn’t good enough, hopefully this bites me

Tough call after one season in the big chair with virtually one hand tied behind his back.
He talked a big game at the end of last season and (in my opinion anyway), went a fair way in the off season to putting his money where his mouth is. Let's give him one more year with a full compliment of assistants and hopefully a better run with injuries before we turn the knife.

 

[rustycrate]

I actually cannot wait for this season to start. I am excited by Kyle and his 188cm.
I am driving the Cootee bus and my anticipation is through the roof.
Edwards I want to see him dominate down back.
Gulden I want to see captaincy stamped on every thing he does. Everything.
Mills I want to see hardness and smarts.
Heeney just do what you do. You are better than 95% of players in second gear.
Wicks to be the best lockdown defender in the league and suprisingly an outlet to scoring chains.
Bice to be devastatingly great off halfback causing problems evry week for opposing teams. A weapon.
Sheldrick to be the best finder of a ball and distributor of same.
Curnow to kick the most and put mud on every Carlton supporters face. May their supporters realise their mistake.
Rampe to climb another goalpost. The final salute to us all.
Debuts to a few newbies. We all like newbie debuts.
I want to see Plan A work. Then Plan B. Then Plan A.
I want the Swans to be 1 step ahead of every team in their mind and in general play.

 

[Wheresbuddy]

I actually cannot wait for this season to start. I am excited by Kyle and his 188cm.
I am driving the Cootee bus and my anticipation is through the roof.
Edwards I want to see him dominate down back.
Gulden I want to see captaincy stamped on every thing he does. Everything.
Mills I want to see hardness and smarts.
Heeney just do what you do. You are better than 95% of players in second gear.
Wicks to be the best lockdown defender in the league and suprisingly an outlet to scoring chains.
Bice to be devastatingly great off halfback causing problems evry week for opposing teams. A weapon.
Sheldrick to be the best finder of a ball and distributor of same.
Curnow to kick the most and put mud on every Carlton supporters face. May their supporters realise their mistake.
Rampe to climb another goalpost. The final salute to us all.
Debuts to a few newbies. We all like newbie debuts.
I want to see Plan A work. Then Plan B. Then Plan A.
I want the Swans to be 1 step ahead of every team in their mind and in general play.

If 75% of this happens, we will win the flag

 

[Kiama Chris]

I actually cannot wait for this season to start. I am excited by Kyle and his 188cm.
I am driving the Cootee bus and my anticipation is through the roof.
Edwards I want to see him dominate down back.
Gulden I want to see captaincy stamped on every thing he does. Everything.
Mills I want to see hardness and smarts.
Heeney just do what you do. You are better than 95% of players in second gear.
Wicks to be the best lockdown defender in the league and suprisingly an outlet to scoring chains.
Bice to be devastatingly great off halfback causing problems evry week for opposing teams. A weapon.
Sheldrick to be the best finder of a ball and distributor of same.
Curnow to kick the most and put mud on every Carlton supporters face. May their supporters realise their mistake.
Rampe to climb another goalpost. The final salute to us all.
Debuts to a few newbies. We all like newbie debuts.
I want to see Plan A work. Then Plan B. Then Plan A.
I want the Swans to be 1 step ahead of every team in their mind and in general play.

Absolutely love your optimism. I'll be delighted to see half of it!

 

[Dubai Quacker]

My one wish for 2026: if 4 goals up, don't go into "defend the lead, down-the-line slow play mode".

It NEVER works & absolutely does my head in.

But we always do it.

 

[RUNVS]

My one wish for 2026: if 4 goals up, don't go into "defend the lead, down-the-line slow play mode".

It NEVER works & absolutely does my head in.

But we always do it.

We are also a team that very much takes our foot off an oppositions throat. We get 50 points up and decide that is good enough. We just have not had the killer instinct needed to really bury another team.

 

[bloodsbigot]

My one wish for 2026: if 4 goals up, don't go into "defend the lead, down-the-line slow play mode".

It NEVER works & absolutely does my head in.

But we always do it.

It's the John Longmire special.

 

[The King!]

I hope we have a good range of premiership merch

 

[Kiama Chris]

I'm disappointed by Cox's statement that Mills will play across half back. IMO it will make our defence less balanced, probably slower, while robbing our midfield of a big body which we have said over and over is something we need.
I could see Mills playing a midfield role where he rests in defence that could be beneficial but not where he's primarily a defender.
Does he play instead of Rampe? Cunningham? Serong? Does he prevent us playing an attacking player like Bice?
Or is this finding him a role because his body can't stand up to playing in the midfield?

 

[Punts]

I'm disappointed by Cox's statement that Mills will play across half back. IMO it will make our defence less balanced, probably slower, while robbing our midfield of a big body which we have said over and over is something we need.
I could see Mills playing a midfield role where he rests in defence that could be beneficial but not where he's primarily a defender.
Does he play instead of Rampe? Cunningham? Serong? Does he prevent us playing an attacking player like Bice?
Or is this finding him a role because his body can't stand up to playing in the midfield?

Moth have to do with his body

 

[zyzzbruh]

I'm disappointed by Cox's statement that Mills will play across half back. IMO it will make our defence less balanced, probably slower, while robbing our midfield of a big body which we have said over and over is something we need.
I could see Mills playing a midfield role where he rests in defence that could be beneficial but not where he's primarily a defender.
Does he play instead of Rampe? Cunningham? Serong? Does he prevent us playing an attacking player like Bice?
Or is this finding him a role because his body can't stand up to playing in the midfield?

The liability being his body serves us more of a risk in regards to balance if he is played as a midfielder. Our midfield needs to be set and forget with a consistent mix. Can't afford to have him be a main midfield ingredient only to be absent every few games.

Mills is an odd predicament because if it weren't for the whole captaincy thing, he'd be the text book salary dump - gun injury prone player without a real place in the side. He's going to need to have an unbelievable and clean year to change that rhetoric. And yeah i do worry we're burning a better gameplan by not playing someone like Bice just to fit Mills in.

 

[Dubai Quacker]

I'm disappointed by Cox's statement that Mills will play across half back. IMO it will make our defence less balanced, probably slower, while robbing our midfield of a big body which we have said over and over is something we need.
I could see Mills playing a midfield role where he rests in defence that could be beneficial but not where he's primarily a defender.
Does he play instead of Rampe? Cunningham? Serong? Does he prevent us playing an attacking player like Bice?
Or is this finding him a role because his body can't stand up to playing in the midfield?

I was actually happy to hear it.

I think sometimes is easy to forget how good Mills is when fit. And my view is that half-back is his best position.

 

[McGowan3]

I was actually happy to hear it.

I think sometimes is easy to forget how good Mills is when fit. And my view is that half-back is his best position.

When our pressure is up, he is masterful at playing a Luke Hodge role down back.

 

[joeykanga]

When our pressure is up, he is masterful at playing a Luke Hodge role down back.

He kind of plays an interceptor role. He then just has to quickly dish it off to a dashing Blakey as often as possible. I like him back there and its a good spot for a captain to play.

 

[Dan87]

Mills is good overhead, reads the play well, and will put his body in the spot

Has the disposal to hit targets and rebound with some speed

It's something we don't really have so I'm all good with it

 

[Ehswan]

Mills is good overhead, reads the play well, and will put his body in the spot

Has the disposal to hit targets and rebound with some speed

It's something we don't really have so I'm all good with it

Still think he gets burned off one on one by all the quick forwards these days. Better in the mids i reckon

 

[RedOrWhite]

Still think he gets burned off one on one by all the quick forwards these days. Better in the mids i reckon

I'd agree with that. It may be that as Mills builds match fitness, he plays more time in the mids. His overhead marking is elite tho and frees up the Lizard a bit.

 

[ErrolisGoldun]

I'm disappointed by Cox's statement that Mills will play across half back. IMO it will make our defence less balanced, probably slower, while robbing our midfield of a big body which we have said over and over is something we need.
I could see Mills playing a midfield role where he rests in defence that could be beneficial but not where he's primarily a defender.
Does he play instead of Rampe? Cunningham? Serong? Does he prevent us playing an attacking player like Bice?
Or is this finding him a role because his body can't stand up to playing in the midfield?

It sounded like due to Mills run of injury they are taking a softly softly approach with him. He will start in defence was what Cox said, which my take was they are looking to build continuity and hopefully get a run of games. This will build consistency, trust in his body and match fitness.

If they are able to get majority of games into him in first part of the season, they may then look to move him further forward.

He is a brilliant half back, I agree, I think he is a better midfielder, but he offers a lot to our defence as stated in a few others posts, is underrated in his creativity, clean disposal, one grab and great mark.

Let’s hope he plays vast majority of games, will add quality to our defence.

 

[The King!]

I'm disappointed by Cox's statement that Mills will play across half back. IMO it will make our defence less balanced, probably slower, while robbing our midfield of a big body which we have said over and over is something we need.
I could see Mills playing a midfield role where he rests in defence that could be beneficial but not where he's primarily a defender.
Does he play instead of Rampe? Cunningham? Serong? Does he prevent us playing an attacking player like Bice?
Or is this finding him a role because his body can't stand up to playing in the midfield?

Cox could be playing 3d chess. Mills to full forward.