2026 Trade / FA Thread

[Scodog10]

Ed Allan has 18 games in seniors and he's still 21.
Last year we were going all in for the flag so blooding kids wasn't a priority.
I think more than a few of them will get more than 20 games .
Of course we have to wait and see.

In a way this shows the issue with promise. Allan has shown much more than the list you provided and yet the extra exposure has meant that we’ve seen his flaws exposed. The end result he’s more likely than the 11 you named and also unlikely himself… For me 20 games will as likely show they’re not up to it as they are.

 

[granniewolf]

In a way this shows the issue with promise. Allan has shown much more than the list you provided and yet the extra exposure has meant that we’ve seen his flaws exposed. The end result he’s more likely than the 11 you named and also unlikely himself… For me 20 games will as likely show they’re not up to it as they are.

I don't see how you can compare players like that.
Each one is an individual with their own pluses and minuses.
The promise each one shows is different, they're not all cut from the same cloth.
It's just that Ed has had more chances than the rest of them and has been in the system for 2 extra years than most.

 

[Bramax]

Concern about the demographic of our list. We need to be smart not to fall off a cliff right around Tassie time.

Unfortunately if we don’t navigate it well we could be absolutely cooked

Do you mean age demographic?

 

[Bramax]

He is one we need carrying the load but isn’t.

Something is not right with him. He’s a bit off and even seems to be shirking the physical stuff and is not bullocking player he once was.

 

[nickyds35]

Hi guys, just some random thoughts on the state of the list and how we handle this going forward.

I get some of the doom and gloom, and understand we are riding it very thin, however I am abit more positive based in the following.

1. Strong Core: Apart from Naicos, McCreery, Hill, Quaynor, Long who are <26, we also have a solid group of 27 to 30 year olds (Jaicos, Moore, De Goey, Perryman, Houston, Cameron, Maynard, Schulz) which should give us a core of around 12-14 playing to a decent level for atleast the next 3 years atleast (although De Goey could finish up earlier). By itself, this is not enough to compete, but should see us not to drop away significantly.

2. Recent Drafting: Our drafting has been horrendous for the last 15 years, however I am very optimistic about the last 2 years. Will be suprised 2-3 of West, Hayes, Cochrane, Prindable, Swadling, McCarthy or Saxexa arnt in the team by mid-next year. I think West has star potential, but wouldn’t be suprised if any of the others become top 12-23 of the list types. Looking further back, I am bullish Steel and Steene will be in the team for the foreseeable future, and that Harrison/McIness could make this jump by the end of the year with a bit of luck with injury. If we can find 3-4 players to add to the "core" team in point 1, then we are 17-18 deep and well positioned.

3. Lower Age Demographic: This doesnt get talked about much by the media, but we significantly reduced the age demographic of our team at the end of last year, with all of Cox (35), Mitchell (34), Hoskin-Elliott (33), Mihochek (33), Markov (30) and Johnson (28) leaving. You would expect this to drop again this year, with all of Pendlebury (38), Howe (36) and Membrey (33) all odds on to retire this year.

4. Issue Is Class Not Depth: As illustrated above, our issue is quality not depth. We are crying our for an A-grade second banana in midfield alongside Naicos atleast, and a gun kpf or kpd wouldnt hurt also (although we have shown over recent years we can get away without premium KPFs/KPDs). This is the part I hope we can improve in the coming off seasons, particularly as our cap opens up. **(Sidepoint: Over the last 15 years, we have been good at recruiting good players (Treloar, Howe, Adams, Hoskin-Elliott, Houston, Perryman, Schultz, Mitchell, McStay) but never really recruited a star (top 20 in league or top 5 by position). All other top teams since 2010 have been far better at this than us (Sydney - Franklin, Curnow, Tippet), Hawthorn (Burgoyne, Lake, Gibson, Gunston, Mitchell), Geelong (Dangerfield, Cameron, Smith), Brisbane (Neale, Daniher, Beams, Dunkley), Richmond (Lynch).

KEY TAKEAWAY

• While in its current form I don't think our list is good or deep enough to compete for a premiership, I think we have a core group of 13-14 players, which provide good depth (meaning we remain competative) and give us the platform/opportunity to compete if we get everything else right with list management over coming years.
• In saying that, we have gotten somewhat lucky (IMO) over recent years, being able to compete despite some pretty poor drafting and trading over the last decade or so. Take out some rare father sons (Naicos, Moore), some veterans playing top-end footy much longer than anticpated (Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Howe) and some good money-balls trades (Cameron, Hill, Mitchell) and we are prob bottom 4 (let alone winning the flag in 2023).

THE WAY FORWARD

A. IN SEASON: WE NEED TO ELEVATE 4-5 YOUNGER PLAYERS FROM WITHIN

We need to find 4-5 players from within that we can solidify their their place in the team. I see the followng as most likely in the next 10 weeks:

• Steel: Hard running, quick, clean disposal.
• Steene: Ruck dominance, marking
• West: Has too much talent, good at everything.
• Harrison: Quick, powerful, clean (McCreery light). Would likely have cemented his spot by now without injury

Other likely options, but likely later in year or next year: Hayes, Anderson, Parker, Cochrane, Prindable, Swadling, Saxena, McIness and Allen.

B. POST SEASON: FREE AGENCY, TRADING AND DRAFT

1. Best Case Scenario (10% chance): Combination of a premium RFA, UFA and trades/drafting.

- Restricted Free Agent: Butters (or King)​

- Unrestricted Fee Agent: Butts​

- Draft: R1, R2, 3 x R3​

​

NOTE: If we can pull off Butters, then you have 2 of the best/most dynamic players in the league for the next 8+ years. Irrespective of previous mistakes and flaws in the list, having 2 of the most dynamic players in the game means you are competing most years, and can get bargain buys/cheap trades to fill any holes in the list at the end of each season (e.g. 2022 offseason).​

​

​

2. Good Scenario (20% chance): Combination of UFA's and trades.​

​

Restricted Free Agents: None​

Unrestricted Free Agents: Butts, Amartay​

Trades: Humphrey (likely for current 1st and future 1st)​

Draft: Poor draft hand due to trading for a up and coming gun like Humphrey.​

​

3. Base Case Scenario (50% chance): Combination of UFA and draft picks​

​

Restricted Free Agents: None​

Unrestricted Free Agents: 2 - one of Butts/Khamis (KPD) and one of Amartey/Lewis (KPF)​

Trades: None​

Draft: 1st, 2nd, 3 x 4th​

​

NOTE: I think this has to be asbolute base case for us this off season. Allows us to address significant holes at KPF and KPD, without trading out any capital. Also allows us to goto the draft, to build on some of the talent we have built up over the last 2 years. This would give us a very solid starting 23:​

​

FB: Quaynor BUTTS Maynard​

HB: Houston Moore Crisp​

C: Jaicos De Goey Sidebottom​

HF: Hill Mcstay McCreery​

FF: Schultz AMARTEY Elliott​

R: Cameron Naicos Perryman​

I/C: Steele West Steene Long​

Em: Buller, Parker. Lipinski, Hayes, Allen, Ryan Jiath ect ect​

​

C. SUMMARY

1. Core Team: Naicos, McCreery, Hill, Quaynor, Perryman, Moore, Houston Maynard, Jaicos, De Goey, Schultz, Cameron. *(excluding Pendlebury, Howe (likely to retire in 26) and Sidebottom, Crisp, McStay (could retire in 27)).
2. Add to core existing talent: Find 4-5 more core players from within (e.g. West, Steene, Harrison, Steel ect) to build strong core of team to 17-18 deep.
3. Trade/Free Agency to fill Gaps: Add 3-4 players via a combination of RFA, UFA and trades to improve team/fill holes in team. This should increase competitive core in team to 21-22 players deep. Ideally, an A-grader like Butters/King, but can also be smart with 2-3 UFAs/cheap trades (e.g. end of 2022).
4. Goto the draft: Unless we trade out for a <25 gun (e.g. Bailey Humphrey), goto the draft to add to the pool of talent acquired over recent years (e.g. West, Cochrane, Hayes, Prindable, Swadling, McCarthy, Anderon, Saxena).

​

 

[No SPIN]

Hi guys, just some random thoughts on the state of the list and how we handle this going forward.

I get some of the doom and gloom, and understand we are riding it very thin, however I am abit more positive based in the following.

1. Strong Core: Apart from Naicos, McCreery, Hill, Quaynor, Long who are <26, we also have a solid group of 27 to 30 year olds (Jaicos, Moore, De Goey, Perryman, Houston, Cameron, Maynard, Schulz) which should give us a core of around 12-14 playing to a decent level for atleast the next 3 years atleast (although De Goey could finish up earlier). By itself, this is not enough to complete, but should see us not to drop away significantly.

2. Recent Drafting: Our drafting has been horrendous for the last 15 years, however I am very optimistic about the last 2 years. Will be suprised 2-3 of West, Hayes, Cochrane, Prindable, Swadling, McCarthy or Saxexa arnt in the team by mid-next year. I think West has star potential, but wouldn’t be suprised if any of the others become top 12-23 of the list types. Looking further back, I am bullish Steel and Steene will be in the team for the foreseeable future, and that Harrison/McIncess could make this jump by the end of the team with a bit of luck with injury. If we can add find 3-4 plays to add to the "core" team in point 1, then we are 17-18 deep and well positioned.

3. Lower Age Demographic: This doesnt get talked about much by the media, but we significantly reduced the age demographic of our team and the end of last year, with all of Cox (35), Mitchell (34), Hoskin-Elliott (33), Mihochek (33), Markov (30) and Johnson (28) all leaving. You would expect this to drop again this year, with all of Pendlebury, Howe and Membrey all odds on to retire this year.

4. Issue Is Class Not Depth: As illustrated above, our issue is quality not depth. We are crying our for a second banana in midfield alongside Naicos atleast, and a gun kpf or kpd wouldnt hurt also (although we have shown over recent years we can get away without premium KPFs/KPDs). This is the part I hope we can improve in the coming off seasons, particularly as our cap opens up. **(Sidepoint: Over the last 15 years, we have been good at recruiting good players (Treloar, Howe, Adams, Hoskin-Elliott, Houston, Perryman, Schultz, Mitchell, McStay) but never really recruited a star (top 20 in league or top 5 by position). All other top teams since 2010 have been far better at this than us (Sydney - Franklin, Curnow, Tippet), Hawthorn (Burgoyne, Lake, Gibson, Gunston, Mitchell), Geelong (Dangerfield, Cameron, Smith), Brisbane (Neale, Daniher, Beams, Dunkley), Richmond (Lynch).

KEY TAKEAWAY

• While in its current form I don't think our list is good or deep enough to compete for a premiership, I think we have a core group of 13-14 players, which provide good depth (meaning we remain competative) and give us the opportunity to compete if we get everything else right with list management over coming years.
• In saying that, we have gotten somewhat lucky (IMO) over recent years, being able to compete despite some pretty poor drafting and trading over the last decade or so. Take out some rare father sons (Naicos, Moore), some veterans playing top-end footy much longer than anticpated (Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Howe) and some good money-balls trades (Cameron, Hill, Mitchell) and we are prob bottom 4 (let alone winning the flag in 2023).

THE WAY FORWARD

A. IN SEASON: WE NEED TO ELEVATE 4-5 YOUNGER PLAYERS FROM WITHIN

We need to find 4-5 players from within that we can solidify their their place in the team. I see the followng as most likely in the next 10 weeks:

• Steel: Hard running, quick, clean disposal.
• Steene: Ruck dominance, marking
• West: Has too much talent, good at everything.
• Harrison: Quick, powerful, clean (McCreery light). Would likely have cemented his spot by now without injury

Other likely options, but likely later in year or next year: Hayes, Anderson, Parker, Cochrane, Prindable, Swadling, Saxena.

B. POST SEASON: FREE AGENCY, TRADING AND DRAFT

1. Best Case Scenario (10% chance): Combination of a premium RFA, UFA and trades/drafting.

- Restricted Free Agent: Butters​

- Unrestricted Fee Agent: Butts (or King)​

- Draft: R1, R2, 3 x R3​

​

NOTE: If we can pull off Butters, then you have 2 of the best/most dynamic players in the league for the next 8+ years. Irrespective of previous mistakes and flaws in the list, having 2 of the most dynamic players in the game means you are competing most years, and can get bargain buys/cheap trades to fill any holes in the list at the end of each season (e.g. 2022 offseason).​

​

​

2. Good Scenario (20% chance): Combination of UFA's and trades.​

​

Restricted Free Agents: None​

Unrestricted Free Agents: Butts, Amartay​

Trades: Humphrey (likely for current 1st and future 1st)​

Draft: Poor draft hand due to trading for a up and coming gun like Humphrey.​

​

3. Base Case Scenario (50% chance): Combination of UFA and draft picks​

​

Restricted Free Agents: None​

Unrestricted Free Agents: 2 - one of Butts/Khamis (KPD) and one of Amartey/Lewis (KPF)​

Trades: None​

Draft: 1st, 2nd, 3 x 4th​

​

NOTE: I think this has to be asbolute base case for us this off season. Allows us to address significant holes at KPF and KPD, without trading out any capital. Also allows us to goto the draft, to build on some of the talent we have built up over the last 2 years. This would give us a very solid starting 23:​

​

FB: Quaynor BUTTS Maynard​

HB: Houston Moore Crisp​

C: Jaicos De Goey Sidebottom​

HF: Hill Mcstay McCreery​

FF: Schultz AMARTEY Elliott​

R: Cameron Naicos Perryman​

I/C: Steele West Steene Long​

Em: Buller, Parker. Lipinski, Hayes, Allen, Ryan Jiath ect ect​

​

C. SUMMARY

1. Core Team: Naicos, McCreery, Hill, Quaynor, Perryman, Moore, Houston Maynard, Jaicos, De Goey, Schultz, Cameron. *(excluding Pendlebury, Howe (likely to retire in 26) and Sidebottom, Crisp, McStay (could retire in 27)).
2. Add to core existing talent: Find 4-5 more core players from within (e.g. West, Steene, Harrison, Steel ect) to build strong core of team to 17-18 deep.
3. Trade/Free Agency to fill Gaps: Add 3-4 players via a combination of RFA, UFA and trades to improve team/fill holes in team. This should increase competitive core in team to 21-22 players deep. Ideally, an A-grader like Butters/King, but can also be smart with 2-3 UFAs/cheap trades (e.g. end of 2022).
4. Goto the draft: Unless we trade out for a <25 gun (e.g. Bailey Humphrey), goto the draft to add to the pool of talent acquired over recent years (e.g. West, Cochrane, Hayes, Prindable, Swadling, McCarthy, Anderon, Saxena).

​

Your list of 4-5 and “Others” has Allan and Reef omitted?

 

[nickyds35]

Your list of 4-5 and “Others” has Allan and Reef omitted?

Good point, still think both have a decent chance of making it. However, I think the 4 I have noted are more likely (assuming they stay fit).

 

[Drought Break]

Hi guys, just some random thoughts on the state of the list and how we handle this going forward.

I get some of the doom and gloom, and understand we are riding it very thin, however I am abit more positive based in the following.

1. Strong Core: Apart from Naicos, McCreery, Hill, Quaynor, Long who are <26, we also have a solid group of 27 to 30 year olds (Jaicos, Moore, De Goey, Perryman, Houston, Cameron, Maynard, Schulz) which should give us a core of around 12-14 playing to a decent level for atleast the next 3 years atleast (although De Goey could finish up earlier). By itself, this is not enough to complete, but should see us not to drop away significantly.

2. Recent Drafting: Our drafting has been horrendous for the last 15 years, however I am very optimistic about the last 2 years. Will be suprised 2-3 of West, Hayes, Cochrane, Prindable, Swadling, McCarthy or Saxexa arnt in the team by mid-next year. I think West has star potential, but wouldn’t be suprised if any of the others become top 12-23 of the list types. Looking further back, I am bullish Steel and Steene will be in the team for the foreseeable future, and that Harrison/McIncess could make this jump by the end of the team with a bit of luck with injury. If we can add find 3-4 plays to add to the "core" team in point 1, then we are 17-18 deep and well positioned.

3. Lower Age Demographic: This doesnt get talked about much by the media, but we significantly reduced the age demographic of our team and the end of last year, with all of Cox (35), Mitchell (34), Hoskin-Elliott (33), Mihochek (33), Markov (30) and Johnson (28) all leaving. You would expect this to drop again this year, with all of Pendlebury, Howe and Membrey all odds on to retire this year.

4. Issue Is Class Not Depth: As illustrated above, our issue is quality not depth. We are crying our for a second banana in midfield alongside Naicos atleast, and a gun kpf or kpd wouldnt hurt also (although we have shown over recent years we can get away without premium KPFs/KPDs). This is the part I hope we can improve in the coming off seasons, particularly as our cap opens up. **(Sidepoint: Over the last 15 years, we have been good at recruiting good players (Treloar, Howe, Adams, Hoskin-Elliott, Houston, Perryman, Schultz, Mitchell, McStay) but never really recruited a star (top 20 in league or top 5 by position). All other top teams since 2010 have been far better at this than us (Sydney - Franklin, Curnow, Tippet), Hawthorn (Burgoyne, Lake, Gibson, Gunston, Mitchell), Geelong (Dangerfield, Cameron, Smith), Brisbane (Neale, Daniher, Beams, Dunkley), Richmond (Lynch).

KEY TAKEAWAY

• While in its current form I don't think our list is good or deep enough to compete for a premiership, I think we have a core group of 13-14 players, which provide good depth (meaning we remain competative) and give us the opportunity to compete if we get everything else right with list management over coming years.
• In saying that, we have gotten somewhat lucky (IMO) over recent years, being able to compete despite some pretty poor drafting and trading over the last decade or so. Take out some rare father sons (Naicos, Moore), some veterans playing top-end footy much longer than anticpated (Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Howe) and some good money-balls trades (Cameron, Hill, Mitchell) and we are prob bottom 4 (let alone winning the flag in 2023).

THE WAY FORWARD

A. IN SEASON: WE NEED TO ELEVATE 4-5 YOUNGER PLAYERS FROM WITHIN

We need to find 4-5 players from within that we can solidify their their place in the team. I see the followng as most likely in the next 10 weeks:

• Steel: Hard running, quick, clean disposal.
• Steene: Ruck dominance, marking
• West: Has too much talent, good at everything.
• Harrison: Quick, powerful, clean (McCreery light). Would likely have cemented his spot by now without injury

Other likely options, but likely later in year or next year: Hayes, Anderson, Parker, Cochrane, Prindable, Swadling, Saxena.

B. POST SEASON: FREE AGENCY, TRADING AND DRAFT

1. Best Case Scenario (10% chance): Combination of a premium RFA, UFA and trades/drafting.

- Restricted Free Agent: Butters​

- Unrestricted Fee Agent: Butts (or King)​

- Draft: R1, R2, 3 x R3​

​

NOTE: If we can pull off Butters, then you have 2 of the best/most dynamic players in the league for the next 8+ years. Irrespective of previous mistakes and flaws in the list, having 2 of the most dynamic players in the game means you are competing most years, and can get bargain buys/cheap trades to fill any holes in the list at the end of each season (e.g. 2022 offseason).​

​

​

2. Good Scenario (20% chance): Combination of UFA's and trades.​

​

Restricted Free Agents: None​

Unrestricted Free Agents: Butts, Amartay​

Trades: Humphrey (likely for current 1st and future 1st)​

Draft: Poor draft hand due to trading for a up and coming gun like Humphrey.​

​

3. Base Case Scenario (50% chance): Combination of UFA and draft picks​

​

Restricted Free Agents: None​

Unrestricted Free Agents: 2 - one of Butts/Khamis (KPD) and one of Amartey/Lewis (KPF)​

Trades: None​

Draft: 1st, 2nd, 3 x 4th​

​

NOTE: I think this has to be asbolute base case for us this off season. Allows us to address significant holes at KPF and KPD, without trading out any capital. Also allows us to goto the draft, to build on some of the talent we have built up over the last 2 years. This would give us a very solid starting 23:​

​

FB: Quaynor BUTTS Maynard​

HB: Houston Moore Crisp​

C: Jaicos De Goey Sidebottom​

HF: Hill Mcstay McCreery​

FF: Schultz AMARTEY Elliott​

R: Cameron Naicos Perryman​

I/C: Steele West Steene Long​

Em: Buller, Parker. Lipinski, Hayes, Allen, Ryan Jiath ect ect​

​

C. SUMMARY

1. Core Team: Naicos, McCreery, Hill, Quaynor, Perryman, Moore, Houston Maynard, Jaicos, De Goey, Schultz, Cameron. *(excluding Pendlebury, Howe (likely to retire in 26) and Sidebottom, Crisp, McStay (could retire in 27)).
2. Add to core existing talent: Find 4-5 more core players from within (e.g. West, Steene, Harrison, Steel ect) to build strong core of team to 17-18 deep.
3. Trade/Free Agency to fill Gaps: Add 3-4 players via a combination of RFA, UFA and trades to improve team/fill holes in team. This should increase competitive core in team to 21-22 players deep. Ideally, an A-grader like Butters/King, but can also be smart with 2-3 UFAs/cheap trades (e.g. end of 2022).
4. Goto the draft: Unless we trade out for a <25 gun (e.g. Bailey Humphrey), goto the draft to add to the pool of talent acquired over recent years (e.g. West, Cochrane, Hayes, Prindable, Swadling, McCarthy, Anderon, Saxena).

​

nice analysis. I wouldn't include Degoey in Core. He's "running " around like a 50 year old, always injured. hill is still an unknown and McCreery is way to inconsistent for his level of experience.

 

[UltraEgo]

I agree with your assessment of Melbourne, however don't think that we can replicate or follow their model, for the simple fact that we haven't lost the likes of Jackson and Petracca that have netted Melbourne some very good draft hands.

King is a revelation and their drafting has been top notch, both from a national draft and a rookie/MSD/SSP perspective.

Given our list profile, I'd prioritise the following:

• Keeping our first-round pick
• Prioritising the best unrestricted free agents
• Adding any restricted free agents / out of contract players who won't cost the earth but will fill out the list

The restricted free agents/out of contract players that are of interest to me at the end of this season include Zak Bailey (provided Brisbane don't match), Jordon Butts, Sam Berry, Bailey Fritsch (provided Melbourne don't match), Mitch Hinge (UFA), Mark O'Connor (UFA), Tom Sparrow (UFA), Buku Khamis and Calsher Dear.

Note that the names above were taken from a list of restricted/unrestricted free agents published by the AFL in March. Some may have re-signed.

would love any of Bailey, Walter, Sparrow, Khamis, Butts

 

[UltraEgo]

I reckon we should drop Lipinski and give Swadling a debut

 

[UltraEgo]

Hi guys, just some random thoughts on the state of the list and how we handle this going forward.

I get some of the doom and gloom, and understand we are riding it very thin, however I am abit more positive based in the following.

1. Strong Core: Apart from Naicos, McCreery, Hill, Quaynor, Long who are <26, we also have a solid group of 27 to 30 year olds (Jaicos, Moore, De Goey, Perryman, Houston, Cameron, Maynard, Schulz) which should give us a core of around 12-14 playing to a decent level for atleast the next 3 years atleast (although De Goey could finish up earlier). By itself, this is not enough to compete, but should see us not to drop away significantly.

2. Recent Drafting: Our drafting has been horrendous for the last 15 years, however I am very optimistic about the last 2 years. Will be suprised 2-3 of West, Hayes, Cochrane, Prindable, Swadling, McCarthy or Saxexa arnt in the team by mid-next year. I think West has star potential, but wouldn’t be suprised if any of the others become top 12-23 of the list types. Looking further back, I am bullish Steel and Steene will be in the team for the foreseeable future, and that Harrison/McIness could make this jump by the end of the year with a bit of luck with injury. If we can find 3-4 players to add to the "core" team in point 1, then we are 17-18 deep and well positioned.

3. Lower Age Demographic: This doesnt get talked about much by the media, but we significantly reduced the age demographic of our team at the end of last year, with all of Cox (35), Mitchell (34), Hoskin-Elliott (33), Mihochek (33), Markov (30) and Johnson (28) leaving. You would expect this to drop again this year, with all of Pendlebury (38), Howe (36) and Membrey (33) all odds on to retire this year.

4. Issue Is Class Not Depth: As illustrated above, our issue is quality not depth. We are crying our for an A-grade second banana in midfield alongside Naicos atleast, and a gun kpf or kpd wouldnt hurt also (although we have shown over recent years we can get away without premium KPFs/KPDs). This is the part I hope we can improve in the coming off seasons, particularly as our cap opens up. **(Sidepoint: Over the last 15 years, we have been good at recruiting good players (Treloar, Howe, Adams, Hoskin-Elliott, Houston, Perryman, Schultz, Mitchell, McStay) but never really recruited a star (top 20 in league or top 5 by position). All other top teams since 2010 have been far better at this than us (Sydney - Franklin, Curnow, Tippet), Hawthorn (Burgoyne, Lake, Gibson, Gunston, Mitchell), Geelong (Dangerfield, Cameron, Smith), Brisbane (Neale, Daniher, Beams, Dunkley), Richmond (Lynch).

KEY TAKEAWAY

• While in its current form I don't think our list is good or deep enough to compete for a premiership, I think we have a core group of 13-14 players, which provide good depth (meaning we remain competative) and give us the platform/opportunity to compete if we get everything else right with list management over coming years.
• In saying that, we have gotten somewhat lucky (IMO) over recent years, being able to compete despite some pretty poor drafting and trading over the last decade or so. Take out some rare father sons (Naicos, Moore), some veterans playing top-end footy much longer than anticpated (Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Howe) and some good money-balls trades (Cameron, Hill, Mitchell) and we are prob bottom 4 (let alone winning the flag in 2023).

THE WAY FORWARD

A. IN SEASON: WE NEED TO ELEVATE 4-5 YOUNGER PLAYERS FROM WITHIN

We need to find 4-5 players from within that we can solidify their their place in the team. I see the followng as most likely in the next 10 weeks:

• Steel: Hard running, quick, clean disposal.
• Steene: Ruck dominance, marking
• West: Has too much talent, good at everything.
• Harrison: Quick, powerful, clean (McCreery light). Would likely have cemented his spot by now without injury

Other likely options, but likely later in year or next year: Hayes, Anderson, Parker, Cochrane, Prindable, Swadling, Saxena, McIness and Allen.

B. POST SEASON: FREE AGENCY, TRADING AND DRAFT

1. Best Case Scenario (10% chance): Combination of a premium RFA, UFA and trades/drafting.

- Restricted Free Agent: Butters (or King)​

- Unrestricted Fee Agent: Butts​

- Draft: R1, R2, 3 x R3​

​

NOTE: If we can pull off Butters, then you have 2 of the best/most dynamic players in the league for the next 8+ years. Irrespective of previous mistakes and flaws in the list, having 2 of the most dynamic players in the game means you are competing most years, and can get bargain buys/cheap trades to fill any holes in the list at the end of each season (e.g. 2022 offseason).​

​

​

2. Good Scenario (20% chance): Combination of UFA's and trades.​

​

Restricted Free Agents: None​

Unrestricted Free Agents: Butts, Amartay​

Trades: Humphrey (likely for current 1st and future 1st)​

Draft: Poor draft hand due to trading for a up and coming gun like Humphrey.​

​

3. Base Case Scenario (50% chance): Combination of UFA and draft picks​

​

Restricted Free Agents: None​

Unrestricted Free Agents: 2 - one of Butts/Khamis (KPD) and one of Amartey/Lewis (KPF)​

Trades: None​

Draft: 1st, 2nd, 3 x 4th​

​

NOTE: I think this has to be asbolute base case for us this off season. Allows us to address significant holes at KPF and KPD, without trading out any capital. Also allows us to goto the draft, to build on some of the talent we have built up over the last 2 years. This would give us a very solid starting 23:​

​

FB: Quaynor BUTTS Maynard​

HB: Houston Moore Crisp​

C: Jaicos De Goey Sidebottom​

HF: Hill Mcstay McCreery​

FF: Schultz AMARTEY Elliott​

R: Cameron Naicos Perryman​

I/C: Steele West Steene Long​

Em: Buller, Parker. Lipinski, Hayes, Allen, Ryan Jiath ect ect​

​

C. SUMMARY

1. Core Team: Naicos, McCreery, Hill, Quaynor, Perryman, Moore, Houston Maynard, Jaicos, De Goey, Schultz, Cameron. *(excluding Pendlebury, Howe (likely to retire in 26) and Sidebottom, Crisp, McStay (could retire in 27)).
2. Add to core existing talent: Find 4-5 more core players from within (e.g. West, Steene, Harrison, Steel ect) to build strong core of team to 17-18 deep.
3. Trade/Free Agency to fill Gaps: Add 3-4 players via a combination of RFA, UFA and trades to improve team/fill holes in team. This should increase competitive core in team to 21-22 players deep. Ideally, an A-grader like Butters/King, but can also be smart with 2-3 UFAs/cheap trades (e.g. end of 2022).
4. Goto the draft: Unless we trade out for a <25 gun (e.g. Bailey Humphrey), goto the draft to add to the pool of talent acquired over recent years (e.g. West, Cochrane, Hayes, Prindable, Swadling, McCarthy, Anderon, Saxena).

​

A few points:

• Houston is/was most certainly top 5 in his position when we recruited him.
• I still like Frampton as our full back, Butts could be CHB with Moore taking over Howe's role in the back six
• Interchange is 5 now, not 4
• There is no way Sidebottom is a starting wing man in 2027
• I wouldn't mind Amartey but I don't think he's a great full forward. I would rather we go hard for Walter who IMO could become a star

 

[Johno9911]

I think for me I'm not quite as doom/gloom as others about the list - the biggest issue imo has been that stretch roughly 2019~2023 drafting has just been miss after miss - particularly in the National Draft which is the main source of talent. The reason I isolate that period is that players from those years should now be cemented as AFL quality players for us alongside Nick - but we've had hardly any come through with him.

2019
Jay Rantall, Trent Bianco, Trey Ruscoe (All 3 Delisted)

2020
Ollie Henry, Fin Macrae, Liam McMahon (All 3 at other clubs)
Reef Mcinees (?)
Beau McCreery (Hit)

2021
Nick Daicos (Hit)
Arlo Draper, Cooper Murley (Delisted)
Harvey Harrison (?)

2022
Ed Allan (?)
Jakob Ryan (Unlikely)
Joe Richards (At another club)

2023
Harry De Matia, Tew Jiath (Unlikely)

So from 17 selections we've found 2 hits (if you can even include F/S Nick) going at 11% during that period. I know we still hope a combo of Reef, Ed, HH come good but entering seasons 3-5 and still having question marks doesn't instill the greatest confidence (acknowledging there has been injuries woes for 2 of them).

Reality is that we needed at least 2 more of those 17 selections to come on and be bonafide "best 23" AFL players and it just hasn't happened. So we 2 have options as I see it:

Option 1 - target players in these age brackets from other clubs to come in alongside Nick (looking at a Darcy Wilson, Alex Davies, Cam McKenzie for examples) to bridge that gap in talent
Option 2 - Follow last years trend and load up on younger talent with the eye of Nick, at 23, entering his prime in the next few years of 25-28ish, and hope that we strike gold on guys from the 2025-2027 drafts to go with him entering that window.

 

[Robroy22]

I reckon we should drop Lipinski and give Swadling a debut

THIS......Swadling has speed and endurance and just keeps finding the ball. Yeah he makes dumb mistakes 20% of the time, but his ability to find space and to move the ball 50-80 metres every time he gets it is tempting. I'd be looking at him as a winger.

 

[Drought Break]

I think for me I'm not quite as doom/gloom as others about the list - the biggest issue imo has been that stretch roughly 2019~2023 drafting has just been miss after miss - particularly in the National Draft which is the main source of talent. The reason I isolate that period is that players from those years should now be cemented as AFL quality players for us alongside Nick - but we've had hardly any come through with him.

2019
Jay Rantall, Trent Bianco, Trey Ruscoe (All 3 Delisted)

2020
Ollie Henry, Fin Macrae, Liam McMahon (All 3 at other clubs)
Reef Mcinees (?)
Beau McCreery (Hit)

2021
Nick Daicos (Hit)
Arlo Draper, Cooper Murley (Delisted)
Harvey Harrison (?)

2022
Ed Allan (?)
Jakob Ryan (Unlikely)
Joe Richards (At another club)

2023
Harry De Matia, Tew Jiath (Unlikely)

So from 17 selections we've found 2 hits (if you can even include F/S Nick) going at 11% during that period. I know we still hope a combo of Reef, Ed, HH come good but entering seasons 3-5 and still having question marks doesn't instill the greatest confidence (acknowledging there has been injuries woes for 2 of them).

Reality is that we needed at least 2 more of those 17 selections to come on and be bonafide "best 23" AFL players and it just hasn't happened. So we 2 have options as I see it:

Option 1 - target players in these age brackets from other clubs to come in alongside Nick (looking at a Darcy Wilson, Alex Davies, Cam McKenzie for examples) to bridge that gap in talent
Option 2 - Follow last years trend and load up on younger talent with the eye of Nick, at 23, entering his prime in the next few years of 25-28ish, and hope that we strike gold on guys from the 2025-2027 drafts to go with him entering that window.

was 2020 they year we had the firesale but then our muppets in charge said they badly wanted to get into the weakest draft this century?

 

[nickyds35]

THIS......Swadling has speed and endurance and just keeps finding the ball. Yeah he makes dumb mistakes 20% of the time, but his ability to find space and to move the ball 50-80 metres every time he gets it is tempting. I'd be looking at him as a winger.

I think Roan Steele is already pretty much a quicker, cleaner, smarter, better power running Lipinski.

He just needs to find the ball 18-20 times a game rather then 10-12 times.

 

[Robroy22]

A few points:

• Houston is/was most certainly top 5 in his position when we recruited him.
• I still like Frampton as our full back, Butts could be CHB with Moore taking over Howe's role in the back six
• Interchange is 5 now, not 4
• There is no way Sidebottom is a starting wing man in 2027
• I wouldn't mind Amartey but I don't think he's a great full forward. I would rather we go hard for Walter who IMO could become a star

Much better suggestions, Amartey doesn't suit our game plan he's a tall flanker not a key forward. Also like the use of Butts as a key defence piece that allows Moore freedom to intercept and on occasion to even go forward if needed. Sidey just about has to be a forward now...he's not quick enough to run the wings with the young speedsters.

 

[Ugene41]

I think for me I'm not quite as doom/gloom as others about the list - the biggest issue imo has been that stretch roughly 2019~2023 drafting has just been miss after miss - particularly in the National Draft which is the main source of talent. The reason I isolate that period is that players from those years should now be cemented as AFL quality players for us alongside Nick - but we've had hardly any come through with him.

2019
Jay Rantall, Trent Bianco, Trey Ruscoe (All 3 Delisted)

2020
Ollie Henry, Fin Macrae, Liam McMahon (All 3 at other clubs)
Reef Mcinees (?)
Beau McCreery (Hit)

2021
Nick Daicos (Hit)
Arlo Draper, Cooper Murley (Delisted)
Harvey Harrison (?)

2022
Ed Allan (?)
Jakob Ryan (Unlikely)
Joe Richards (At another club)

2023
Harry De Matia, Tew Jiath (Unlikely)

So from 17 selections we've found 2 hits (if you can even include F/S Nick) going at 11% during that period. I know we still hope a combo of Reef, Ed, HH come good but entering seasons 3-5 and still having question marks doesn't instill the greatest confidence (acknowledging there has been injuries woes for 2 of them).

Reality is that we needed at least 2 more of those 17 selections to come on and be bonafide "best 23" AFL players and it just hasn't happened. So we 2 have options as I see it:

Option 1 - target players in these age brackets from other clubs to come in alongside Nick (looking at a Darcy Wilson, Alex Davies, Cam McKenzie for examples) to bridge that gap in talent
Option 2 - Follow last years trend and load up on younger talent with the eye of Nick, at 23, entering his prime in the next few years of 25-28ish, and hope that we strike gold on guys from the 2025-2027 drafts to go with him entering that window.

The "benefit" of not having a core group of 23 year olds to combine with Nick as he enters his prime at 25-28ish is that our salary cap is also not sucked up by a large group of star young players that need big contracts to keep them as they enter FA years. It means if we're smart, and continue to be competitive and an attractive team to be part of, we can top up players around Nick in that age group as we've done with Houston, Schultz, Perryman.

Our secret weapon is being able to extend the high performance years of our veterans well into mid 30s so that our depth and competitiveness is still good without young draftees being forced to fill that gap.

 

[Robroy22]

I think Roan Steele is already pretty much a quicker, cleaner, smarter, better power running Lipinski.

He just needs to find the ball 18-20 times a game rather then 10-12 times.

He maybe, but Roan isn't a dasher like Swadling, he's more of a younger right sided Sidebottom. He's got a bit more "go" in him than Patty L but he still is that depth size winger if you ask me.

 

[UltraEgo]

Potential 2027 team

FB: Moore - Frampton - Maynard
HB: Quaynor - Butts - Houston
C: Swadling - Anderson - Josh
HF: Schultz - Walter - Hill
FF: Elliott - McStay - De Goey

R: Steene - Nick - McCreery

IC: Cameron - West - Harrison - Steele - Perryman

Depth: Sullivan - Buller - Crisp - Long - Allan - Hayes - Prindable

 

[Dtennent94]

I think for me I'm not quite as doom/gloom as others about the list - the biggest issue imo has been that stretch roughly 2019~2023 drafting has just been miss after miss - particularly in the National Draft which is the main source of talent. The reason I isolate that period is that players from those years should now be cemented as AFL quality players for us alongside Nick - but we've had hardly any come through with him.

2019
Jay Rantall, Trent Bianco, Trey Ruscoe (All 3 Delisted)

2020
Ollie Henry, Fin Macrae, Liam McMahon (All 3 at other clubs)
Reef Mcinees (?)
Beau McCreery (Hit)

2021
Nick Daicos (Hit)
Arlo Draper, Cooper Murley (Delisted)
Harvey Harrison (?)

2022
Ed Allan (?)
Jakob Ryan (Unlikely)
Joe Richards (At another club)

2023
Harry De Matia, Tew Jiath (Unlikely)

So from 17 selections we've found 2 hits (if you can even include F/S Nick) going at 11% during that period. I know we still hope a combo of Reef, Ed, HH come good but entering seasons 3-5 and still having question marks doesn't instill the greatest confidence (acknowledging there has been injuries woes for 2 of them).

Reality is that we needed at least 2 more of those 17 selections to come on and be bonafide "best 23" AFL players and it just hasn't happened. So we 2 have options as I see it:

Option 1 - target players in these age brackets from other clubs to come in alongside Nick (looking at a Darcy Wilson, Alex Davies, Cam McKenzie for examples) to bridge that gap in talent
Option 2 - Follow last years trend and load up on younger talent with the eye of Nick, at 23, entering his prime in the next few years of 25-28ish, and hope that we strike gold on guys from the 2025-2027 drafts to go with him entering that window.

Jiath, Ryan and McInness look at least somewhat capable, but they are all competing for positions in our strongest line.

Would make sense to give some of them games and shuffle Jaicos and Perryman into the midfield where we are desperate.

 

[Johno9911]

Jiath, Ryan and McInness look at least somewhat capable, but they are all competing for positions in our strongest line.

Would make sense to give some of them games and shuffle Jaicos and Perryman into the midfield where we are desperate.

I think you're right with Reef - I really liked some of his efforts down back last year and think there's enough to work with going forward with him, just needs a clean run with the body.

I'm less optimistic with Jiath and Ryan - these guys have been in the system now for 3-4 seasons and at present seem not in calculation, even with some of our injuries. Both have shown a bit of glimpse or a "flash" here and there at lower level - but at their stage in career they should really be settled in the 23 or be banging the door down at the 2's level. I know both have had some "good games" at VFL level but neither have strung multiple weeks in a row to demand selection.

I agree we need to get someone in to that line to allow Pez and JD7 to go through the midfield - but it seems that Parker has gone past both TJ and Ryan in the pecking order for small/medium defenders. They might even shuffle further down that queue once Reef is fit and we can look at using Howe as a medium/intercepting type where I think he excels.

 

[Pragmatic Shill]

This goes down as one of the dumbest comments I've ever seen from a Collingwood supporter.

 

[SchuPie]

This goes down as one of the dumbest comments I've ever seen from a Collingwood supporter.

There’s two sides to this

• some supporters think we needed to go for another flag
• some supporters think we should have taken the flag and started the rebuild

Just my opinion, I think we did neither

I think if you go for a flag that we needed other pieces to get there
(Some will say “but we made a prelim and nearly a gf” - but we didn’t)

We have a number of young drafted players on the list
- but we really gave up all our early collateral to obtain the high-end talent to develop alongside Nick

What would SchuPie have done - yeah I’ve got my position but who cares. Just like everyone on BF, it’s my opinion.

What did the club do - well, they kind of went for it / tried to draft - and now we’ll see where it all falls out - have we drafted well enough to threaten for a flag soonish or are we in for a lot of pain?

 

[manicpie]

There’s two sides to this

• some supporters think we needed to go for another flag
• some supporters think we should have taken the flag and started the rebuild

Just my opinion, I think we did neither

I think if you go for a flag that we needed other pieces to get there
(Some will say “but we made a prelim and nearly a gf” - but we didn’t)

We have a number of young drafted players on the list
- but we really gave up all our early collateral to obtain the high-end talent to develop alongside Nick

What would SchuPie have done - yeah I’ve got my position but who cares. Just like everyone on BF, it’s my opinion.

What did the club do - well, they kind of went for it / tried to draft - and now we’ll see where it all falls out - have we drafted well enough to threaten for a flag soonish or are we on for a lot of pain?

I'm happy to wait till the end of the year to see where we stand moving forward. It's too soon to make a definite judgement. Time will tell

 

[SchuPie]

I'm happy to wait till the end of the year to see where we stand moving forward. It's too soon to make a definite judgement. Time will tell

Yep
And make a really good plan once we get there