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I do a lot more than hang out on bigfooty.
EVERYTHING in this thread is speculative. The AFL isnt talking about a 20th team. No one is. Hell we may not even end up with a 19th team yet.
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20th AFL Team
- Thread starter lionshine
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I do a lot more than hang out on bigfooty.
EVERYTHING in this thread is speculative. The AFL isnt talking about a 20th team. No one is. Hell we may not even end up with a 19th team yet.
- Sep 10, 2010
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Big advantage for WA then. I would imagine Arena Joondalup would be getting the training facility upgrade in that case. Fewer Freo supporters and a more marginal seat at both state and federal levels compared to Mandurah.
Okay, then could you please explain what you meant when you said the Eagles and Freo don't have 2/3 of Perth either? I'm a bit confused.
Averaging 18k in a 20k stadium would mean every seat has been sold. I can’t see that happening.
It comes down to supply and demand. Current seating at Optus is nearly sold out every week. By the time WA3 would be rolling out I suspect it will be maxed. This does even take into consideration on premium seating / corporate. If that is maxed already then they are already missing out on revenue right now.
A new team will get people to shift. There will be interstate fans who now consider Perth home who might switch too or at least go to more games since WA3 will have seats available. The Pies probably have 20k supporters living in Perth so big Melbourne clubs might get more supporters to games too. As Perth grows, the 3rd team will grow too as the other 2 will be maxed, even if it’s just attendance to get a seat like some of the Freagles we use to have at games.
Your point on this being the last chance is important as a capped attendance in the 2nd biggest market for 20 years is a dumb idea for the league.
I can.
In a 20k stadium, I think there's a high chance it'd be sold out every game of its first season.
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The_Reaper
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People from Perth will not support a Mandurah side.
You might be able to make a Mandurah/Rockingham side but there is no real push for Peel Thunder to make the AFL.
You might be able to make a Mandurah/Rockingham side but there is no real push for Peel Thunder to make the AFL.
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Yeah thats a real possibility too.
Population of Perth- ~2.4m
Average 2025 attendance - 43k (WCE), 45k (Freo)
Average Perth TV audience (2024) - ~200,000 (FTA/Fox) for matches featuring WA sides
Club Support (assumes all in WA) - WCE 658k, Freo 413k, total 1.1m
Lot of people unaccounted for.
- Sep 10, 2010
- 18,144
- 25,254
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
Okay, thanks. Well I imagine the point Canberra Pear was trying to make was that a third WA team wouldn't capture a third of the AFL interest of Perth in the short term. The statistics suggest the pie is smaller than it may first appear, so WA3s slice of it would be small too in absolute numbers.
Yes, I'm sure, but I was hoping you might point to something in the public arena.
Yes, but specifically we were talking about WA3
Not publicly, but assuredly the AFL are talking about a 20th team along with everything else.
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19 teams is interesting. Gather round impossible as you cant play an odd number of games in the season.
24 rounds, 38 byes so
17 rounds with 1 bye, 7 with 3.
Or 19 with 1 bye, 4 with 3byes , 1 with 7 byes is also possible.
The 7 byes could be the last round, or 2nd last round if week 1 of finals is wildcard weekend ( 7 vs 10, 8vs 9).
Joondalup and Mandurah make no sense what so ever for a new team.
A new team has to identify and own that identity.
That only leaves the NE, E or SE.
He cannot. The Eagles and Freo dhave a shared population catchment area of Perth and beyond.
That means that the Eagles and Freo share most of the people interested in following AFL to various degrees.
AFL have underinvested for years.
West Coast and Fremantle pay royalties to the WAFC for development in WA.
In 30 years Fremantle has the lowest AFL funding of any club.
Having 1 player in the top 30 is a reflection of the lacking of funding the state gets.
Auskicks and junior participation is falling as well.
The cliff is coming unless the AFL and WAFC put an end to the Cold War and comprise on the control of development in WA.
Exactly. WA3 won't just scoop up a third of AFL support.
The majority of those won't budget from Freo or West Coast. The rest have had decades to swap to a local side, but have still stuck fat with their non-WA side.
And the rest of Perth hasn't been that interested in AFL.
WA3 will do fine, but I don't think it's some goldmine just waiting to be mined as some have implied in here.
Yes (but I don't follow the rest of your statement.)
In fact Canberra would initially start ahead of Pth3.
Pth3 has zero public support a.t.m. as there is no team.
Canberra could quite confidently assume the current support for GWS would transfer across to the new team
plus newbies excited at the local representation in AFL.
Pth3 can only expect marginal crowds at best initially if they get the right design, the right model, the right promotion after a sufficient lead in time for the idea to sink in.
In fact, a relocated side might generate higher crowds initially as it'd a known quantity.
I'm sure there is someone somewhere crunching the numbers, costs and projections.
Pth3 could/probably overtake Canberra in the median term but it has stadium cost issues
and is consolidation as attractive as developing a new market ?
Perth can be the name just like the Scorchers, Glory & Wildcats. They can pick up the demand not filled by WC (getting a seat) or Freo (getting a good seat).
It’ll come once the big wigs want a 20th team. WA3 will easily get more than Canberra in attendance from day 1. They only need 12,500 fans plus 2 Derby sell outs a year to average 20k which they will smash based on novelty alone. Canberra getting 18k average attendance would have to sell out all 11 games.
There's no reason to believe this unless the scarcity of seats is the only reason people haven't changed teams, as that's the only thing a generic Perth 3 team has to offer. There's been plenty of of chances for people from interstate to shift over and they haven't, and obviously not many West Coast or Freo fans would. I'm not saying no one would go, but it wouldn't be 1/3 of the AFL interested market, probably not even 1/6th.
At that point you're basically trying to make money from away crowds, which is hard in a 60k seat stadium.
12.5k fans would be a massive loss though at Optus.
WA3 would get higher crowds than Canberra, but they have to. 18k at Manuka is a profit, 18k at Optus is a loss.
Not sure you can count on every derby selling out. Just because a WA team is the opposition doesn't mean it'll sell out.
Freo have played a non-WA team twice and averaged 32k. The novelty and a WA opponent can only do so much heavy lifting.
Manuka would probably be upgraded to about 20-22k but there’s no way Canberra would average close to that. There’s no evidence suggesting they would.
Raiders are in a bit bigger stadium, though it is a poor stadium in a crappy location unlike an upgraded Manuka would be, the best they average is about 16k like this year. In a better stadium in a better location in a good form year they might get 20k. Brumbies get about half that at best.
I think a 15k average in their first few years would be a very optimistic view. 18k no way.
WA3 would get 15k easily for non derbies, plus the derbies 22-24k average.
But the crowds are less of a concern. With WA growing population is freo and WC enough to sustain that growing population for the next 15/20 years? WC is already maxed and Freo will be too in the next 5-10 years. Then what? Perth will have 3m population and a strong afl city with only 2 teams.
Is Canberra appealing enough or underserved enough of a market to risk that? Are the economic upsides of Canberra going to outweigh the upsides of WA3? None of these are likely let alone assured.
It is interesting parallels with the nrl as there is a similar debate, with the locations for team 20 being either Christchurch or brisbane3. Christchurch is equivalent of Canberra for afl, a smaller market with competition but has league support and potential to grow the game further. Economic upsides to the game are more questionable though being a smaller market and in nz. Brisbane3 would be an easy sell and would immediately have fans and drive revenue and the city can support a third nrl team much like Perth with afl.
I think in the case of nrl though there’s more upsides of going to Christchurch than than upsides the afl has to go to Canberra. If it were me though if I was Dill I’d go to WA3 and if I was PVL I’d go Brisbane3.
Raiders are in a bit bigger stadium, though it is a poor stadium in a crappy location unlike an upgraded Manuka would be, the best they average is about 16k like this year. In a better stadium in a better location in a good form year they might get 20k. Brumbies get about half that at best.
I think a 15k average in their first few years would be a very optimistic view. 18k no way.
WA3 would get 15k easily for non derbies, plus the derbies 22-24k average.
But the crowds are less of a concern. With WA growing population is freo and WC enough to sustain that growing population for the next 15/20 years? WC is already maxed and Freo will be too in the next 5-10 years. Then what? Perth will have 3m population and a strong afl city with only 2 teams.
Is Canberra appealing enough or underserved enough of a market to risk that? Are the economic upsides of Canberra going to outweigh the upsides of WA3? None of these are likely let alone assured.
It is interesting parallels with the nrl as there is a similar debate, with the locations for team 20 being either Christchurch or brisbane3. Christchurch is equivalent of Canberra for afl, a smaller market with competition but has league support and potential to grow the game further. Economic upsides to the game are more questionable though being a smaller market and in nz. Brisbane3 would be an easy sell and would immediately have fans and drive revenue and the city can support a third nrl team much like Perth with afl.
I think in the case of nrl though there’s more upsides of going to Christchurch than than upsides the afl has to go to Canberra. If it were me though if I was Dill I’d go to WA3 and if I was PVL I’d go Brisbane3.
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Of all the options I've seen for WA3, that is unquestionably the worst. All you're doing is setting up an identityless team for theatregoers, so as soon as they lose a couple in a row nobody will show up.
Even Joondalup is a better idea, and Joondalup ****ing sucks.
My logic is based on the Gold Coast's first years. It's the closest example of a regional city hosting three games of an interstate team and then going to a team of their own.
Canberra is more pro-AFL than the Gold Coast was pre-Suns. They hosted games for four years. The subsequent first four seasons of them having a team, the average crowds rose 52%.
If this were replicated, Canberra would average 17.5k the first four years. Or 20.7k in the inaugural season (capacity allowing).
Worth noting Canberra's base number is also supressed by sell outs. The Gold Coast also had three "big four" games, and three against the Lions down the road, all of which buoyed the Gold Coast pre-Suns crowds. Our base would be higher if we could've hosted bigger crowds and bigger teams.
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Yes I do think Canberra could average higher with the big victorian fanbases travelling to Canberra and helping to fill the ground. With Canberra being not too far of a drive from Melbourne being another advantage to this.
But if they get 19k with games against Collingwood, Carlton, Richmond and Essendon and 10-12k verse the rest not sure that’s a great outcome either at least in terms of crowds.
But if they get 19k with games against Collingwood, Carlton, Richmond and Essendon and 10-12k verse the rest not sure that’s a great outcome either at least in terms of crowds.
Did you read any of my post? We were averaging more than the Gold Coast pre-Suns and their lowest home crowd in the first season was 14.9k.
Canberra would average way higher than 10-12k for other teams.
The home team factor will elevate crowds. The Giants don't get hometown support, they get AFL support.
We got 11.8k against North this year. And I knew people who rocked up and walked away when the cheapest GA ticket left was $74.
They'd also sell out against the swans and hopefully the giants (given the team wouldn't start till 2030 at the earliest).
Given the giants average more than 10k in Manuka against generally not the biggest drawing teams, I don't why you think a local team at an upgraded stadium wouldn't improve on that.
How many games do they play at Manuka 3? Different than a full season
Don’t think it’s a given they’d sell out against Sydney or gws.
Yes, Perth what ? Where ? Colours ? Underlying theme ?
I am not sold on that premise.
Besides, they'd only be two games at Perth stadium, the derbies.
These people wanting a "good seat" might not like a seat at a lesser oval.
They can get that at the WAFL anytime.
And when will that be ?
We will get a lot more than 12.5k. Who knows on the structure of the stadium deals but I don’t see how more people = less money. Especially since any new deal will get figured out with all parties involved - WAFL, State Government, AFL, WA3.
I don’t understand what you mean by the 32k average for Freo? Are you talking about last season as 2 games is an extremely small sample size.
All games will be at Perth Stadium, that’s the whole point of having WA3. Regions won’t work due to lack of Population.
There was a report recently that the WA football commission are now open to WA3. There will be more money in it for them due to the extra royalty, although I hope they do a deal to fix up the WA junior development pathways.
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