20th AFL Team

[Canberra Pear]

If the AFL grows to 20 teams, then I suggest a 3rd SANFL team being the merger of 2 powerful SANFL clubs in Norwood and Sturt - instant 10000 members but this would probably ruin the SANFL beyond repair. Hence my preferred AFL option is to reduce the AFL to 18 teams with the merger of Melbourne and North Melbourne to become the Demon Roos.

Adelaide's too small for a third club (both by population and economy). It's not even in the top three most likely candidates for the 20th team.

Port is a middling club, and I say that with love for the club. Port is a middling club that has taken decades to get where they are. A third SA club would pale in comparison to Port.

It would be an absolute minnow and its crowds would look tiny at Adelaide Oval and there's no suitable mid-sized ground for them to play at.

 

[MelbourneGWS]

I have always maintained that the choice for the 20th team will be between WA3 and Canberra. To be in contention with the WA3 and Canberra options, NT/North Australia will need a financial boost similar to what our PM Albo gave the NRL PNG team.

 

[RedV3x]

Adelaide's too small for a third club (both by population and economy)

Not really. Distributed evenly there would be 500k per team.

Port is a middling club,

Wrong. port Adelaide is a huge club, the most succesessful club ever.

A third SA club would pale in comparison to Port.

Part of port's problem was that it was too big - big enough to start an AFL team
but so big that every SANFL fan was against them.
.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Not really. Distributed evenly there would be 500k per team.

Do you genuinely believe Adelaide to be a viable contender for the 20th team, or are you just playing devil's advocate for the sake of debate?

Fans aren't going to evenly distribute by thirds just because a new team comes to town.

The battle lines are more or less drawn. A new team would be drawing from a pool much smaller than 500k.

And even if they were, that's still fewer people than what Melbourne has per team. And the general consensus seems to be that Melbourne has too many teams.

Wrong. port Adelaide is a huge club, the most succesessful club ever.

Part of port's problem was that it was too big - big enough to start an AFL team
but so big that every SANFL fan was against them.

You don't have to sell me on the success. I love telling fans of other teams that we've won 37 premierships. That unfortunately in no way makes us a huge club.

Port is 10th by least distribution, 10th in revenue, 11th by members, 10th by home crowds. Incredibly middle of the road numbers. And it wasn't that long ago we were covering seats with tarps.

And a third Adelaide team would be significantly smaller than that.

 

[The_Reaper]

I mean Adelaide3 is behind Perth3 just on population and economics.
And the same argument for Canberra over Perth applies to Canberra over Adelaide.

 

[RedV3x]

Do you genuinely believe Adelaide to be a viable contender for the 20th team, or are you just playing devil's advocate for the sake of debate?

Neither. I try to keep to the facts and stay away from hyperbole.

Fans aren't going to evenly distribute by thirds just because a new team comes to town.

Fans aren't going to evenly distribute by thirds because a new team comes to town.

The battle lines are more or less drawn. A new team would be drawing from a pool much smaller than 500k.

And even if they were, that's still fewer people than what Melbourne has per team.

No. Over 500k per team if evenly distributed.

And the general consensus seems to be that Melbourne has too many teams.

The fact is that the distribution of football fans in Melbourne is wildly unbalanced.
The AFL recognises this unbalnce bewteen teams and has equalisation measures in place
in an attempt to rectify the situation.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Neither. I try to keep to the facts and stay away from hyperbole.

You literally called Port a huge club. As much as I wish it were true, that's a tad hyperbolic.

Fans aren't going to evenly distribute by thirds because a new team comes to town.

No. Over 500k per team if evenly distributed.

The fact is that the distribution of football fans in Melbourne is wildly unbalanced.
The AFL recognises this unbalnce bewteen teams and has equalisation measures in place
in an attempt to rectify the situation.

So we agree that fan distribution will be uneven and a third club would be pulling from a smaller pool of fans than Crows or Port?

 

[RedV3x]

You literally called Port a huge club. As much as I wish it were true, that's a tad hyperbolic.

Port Adelaide is such a huge SANFL club that they entered an AFL team.
Port Adelaide is such a huge SANFL club that people love them or hate them.

So we agree that fan distribution will be uneven and a third club would be pulling from a smaller pool of fans than Crows or Port?

I stated that yonks ago.

 

[rdrdrdrd]

Port Adelaide is such a huge SANFL club that they entered an AFL team.
Port Adelaide is such a huge SANFL club that people love them or hate them.



I stated that yonks ago.

My post 2 days ago simply stated that I would prefer 2 Vic teams to merge (e.g. Nth Melb & Melb) to form an 18-team comp once Tassie gets in. If the AFL must go up to 20 teams, then the SA3 team could be a merged Norwood/Sturt team - 2 very strong powerful and rich SANFL clubs who proposed to merge 30 years ago to join the AFL but were beaten by Port Adelaide's bid which was the right decision at the time. A sizeable number of Adelaide Crows fans were Norwood and Sturt fans and if the merger was done properly, those fans could jump across from the Crows to Norwood/Sturt. Port would be unaffected by this new SA team as I doubt if any Port fans are Norwood/Sturt fans lol. I think a WA3 team would not have much of an initial following as WA people are now rusted onto WC or Freo. The SANFL would suffer huge damage if Norwood and Sturt entered the AFL which I don't want to see as I'm a SANFL loyalist. But my preference is for 2 Vic teams to merge.

 

[RedV3x]

My post 2 days ago simply stated that I would prefer 2 Vic teams to merge

Yes. Nothing has changed.

 

[Canberra Pear]

My post 2 days ago simply stated that I would prefer 2 Vic teams to merge (e.g. Nth Melb & Melb) to form an 18-team comp once Tassie gets in. If the AFL must go up to 20 teams, then the SA3 team could be a merged Norwood/Sturt team - 2 very strong powerful and rich SANFL clubs who proposed to merge 30 years ago to join the AFL but were beaten by Port Adelaide's bid which was the right decision at the time. A sizeable number of Adelaide Crows fans were Norwood and Sturt fans and if the merger was done properly, those fans could jump across from the Crows to Norwood/Sturt. Port would be unaffected by this new SA team as I doubt if any Port fans are Norwood/Sturt fans lol. I think a WA3 team would not have much of an initial following as WA people are now rusted onto WC or Freo. The SANFL would suffer huge damage if Norwood and Sturt entered the AFL which I don't want to see as I'm a SANFL loyalist. But my preference is for 2 Vic teams to merge.

But you’ve framed it as a third SA team or two Victorian teams merging are the only options to keep the teams even.

You’re right that WA3 would struggle with initial support, but they’re still more likely and viable than a third SA team. You’re also missing the obvious one in Canberra, too.

Both Canberra and WA3 are more likely than either SA3 or two Victorian teams merging.

 

[Cunnington Cartel]

My post 2 days ago simply stated that I would prefer 2 Vic teams to merge (e.g. Nth Melb & Melb) to form an 18-team comp once Tassie gets in. If the AFL must go up to 20 teams, then the SA3 team could be a merged Norwood/Sturt team - 2 very strong powerful and rich SANFL clubs who proposed to merge 30 years ago to join the AFL but were beaten by Port Adelaide's bid which was the right decision at the time. A sizeable number of Adelaide Crows fans were Norwood and Sturt fans and if the merger was done properly, those fans could jump across from the Crows to Norwood/Sturt. Port would be unaffected by this new SA team as I doubt if any Port fans are Norwood/Sturt fans lol. I think a WA3 team would not have much of an initial following as WA people are now rusted onto WC or Freo. The SANFL would suffer huge damage if Norwood and Sturt entered the AFL which I don't want to see as I'm a SANFL loyalist. But my preference is for 2 Vic teams to merge.

If you’re proposing radical ideas like mergers, then perhaps you should support them with better rationale instead of arbitrarily calling for the death of two clubs with 150+ years of history. They don’t even make sense as partner clubs considering they have vastly different supporter bases/club cultures.

The NRL is charging ahead towards a 20 team comp. The AFL won’t contract their number of clubs and give their biggest rival an upper-hand when it comes to the amount of content they are able to sell to broadcasters.

But you’ve framed it as a third SA team or two Victorian teams merging are the only options to keep the teams even.

You’re right that WA3 would struggle with initial support, but they’re still more likely and viable than a third SA team. You’re also missing the obvious one in Canberra, too.

Both Canberra and WA3 are more likely than either SA3 or two Victorian teams merging.

Exactly.

When it comes to viability and the league’s strategic outlook, Canberra and WA both have way more advantages over a 3rd SA club.

Gather Round should stay in SA. That’s a huge boon for football in that state and I believe it makes it less likely for them to get a new club in the short to medium term.

 

[baaaall!]

In my opinion the case has well and truly been made in this thread by several posters that Canberra is the unquestionable leader in the race for the 20th team.

At the same time, the AFL would be foolish to not begin planning for a third Queensland side in the next round of expansion.

The current successes off field of the Lions and Suns, such as crowds etc, has been well documented in this thread, with some questioning (rightly so) whether these can be maintained when on field results drop. However, the success of the two QLD sides is not the primary argument as to why the league should plan for a third club.

Last year, footy participation in Queensland passed WA to be the second highest in the nation, behind only Victoria.

Just look at the elite QLD footy talent coming through both the Men’s and Women’s drafts. The footy culture is alive and well in SEQ, there’s no doubt that Queensland is now a footy state. (NRL will always be king, but there’s no reason both codes can’t thrive.)

SEQ is already home to over 4 million people, and is expected to grow to 6 million in the next 25 years to 2050. This is larger than Sydney and Melbourne today.

Unlike Syd/Melb’s growth in population, a much higher share of this growth is from interstate rather than overseas, many of whom are already familiar with and are consumers of AFL.

This growth is expected to be concentrated in areas not currently well serviced by the Lions and Suns, in particular the Moreton Bay region (Brisbane’s outer north, 800k in 2050) and the Sunshine Coast (600k in 2050).

It would be an incredible opportunity for the league to make plans to bring in a side to represent these areas to enter the league around 2040. This would give the Lions a decade to grow into the new stadium and the Suns a full generation (30 years) to cement themselves.

I’d expect the new club would utilise the world class Olympic stadium in Brisbane for 7/8 home games whilst playing a further 3/4 at a revamped Maroochydore ground on the Sunshine Coast.

It feels like we’re entering a golden era of Queensland footy, both at the elite and grassroots levels, and this opportunity shouldn’t be squandered by the league.

 

[Ian Dunross]

In 15 years' time could see QLD 3 being a viable candidate.

Seems highly unlikely a 20th team happens before 2040, Tassie, GC and GWS need time to consolidate.

WA 3 makes sense for WA team travel reasons, but idk enough about WA economics and sports to know if it has legs, whereas arguably QLD3 has more obvious rationale with Brisbane being a 3m pop city and Sunshine Coast up the road with another half million, plus a game or 2 up at Cairns/Townsville.

Far be it for me to say as a supporter of a minnow club and a club with less flags than North, but do North start playing 6 home games a year out of Canberra in a few years' time and GWS become a full time Sydney club?

 

[Canberra Pear]

In 15 years' time could see QLD 3 being a viable candidate.

Seems highly unlikely a 20th team happens before 2040, Tassie, GC and GWS need time to consolidate.

I think it's highly unlikely we don't see a 20th team before 2040.

The AFL has already signalled their intent for a 20th team.

In the past century, the AFL has never gone more than four seasons with odd teams. I can't see it having odd teams for 13-plus seasons.

 

[Coolangatta]

I think it's highly unlikely we don't see a 20th team before 2040.

The AFL has already signalled their intent for a 20th team.

In the past century, the AFL has never gone more than four seasons with odd teams. I can't see it having odd teams for 13-plus seasons.

I think it’ll be 2032 or 2033, coinciding with the new media rights deal or the Giants exiting Canberra.

 

[Coolangatta]

In my opinion the case has well and truly been made in this thread by several posters that Canberra is the unquestionable leader in the race for the 20th team.

At the same time, the AFL would be foolish to not begin planning for a third Queensland side in the next round of expansion.

The current successes off field of the Lions and Suns, such as crowds etc, has been well documented in this thread, with some questioning (rightly so) whether these can be maintained when on field results drop. However, the success of the two QLD sides is not the primary argument as to why the league should plan for a third club.

Last year, footy participation in Queensland passed WA to be the second highest in the nation, behind only Victoria.

Just look at the elite QLD footy talent coming through both the Men’s and Women’s drafts. The footy culture is alive and well in SEQ, there’s no doubt that Queensland is now a footy state. (NRL will always be king, but there’s no reason both codes can’t thrive.)

SEQ is already home to over 4 million people, and is expected to grow to 6 million in the next 25 years to 2050. This is larger than Sydney and Melbourne today.

Unlike Syd/Melb’s growth in population, a much higher share of this growth is from interstate rather than overseas, many of whom are already familiar with and are consumers of AFL.

This growth is expected to be concentrated in areas not currently well serviced by the Lions and Suns, in particular the Moreton Bay region (Brisbane’s outer north, 800k in 2050) and the Sunshine Coast (600k in 2050).

It would be an incredible opportunity for the league to make plans to bring in a side to represent these areas to enter the league around 2040. This would give the Lions a decade to grow into the new stadium and the Suns a full generation (30 years) to cement themselves.

I’d expect the new club would utilise the world class Olympic stadium in Brisbane for 7/8 home games whilst playing a further 3/4 at a revamped Maroochydore ground on the Sunshine Coast.

It feels like we’re entering a golden era of Queensland footy, both at the elite and grassroots levels, and this opportunity shouldn’t be squandered by the league.

Careful, you sound like me with this “next round of expansion” talk.

People aren’t happy with us going to 20 teams, let alone more than that.

Yet I agree, a third side in South East Queensland seems like a no brainer in 25-30 years.

Knowing the AFL, they’d pair a third QLD side with a third NSW side if they went another round of expansion and I think that would come from the Hunter Valley area.

If there’s a couple games hosted in Newcastle in the future, that would help the case.

 

[RedV3x]

If there’s a couple games hosted in Newcastle in the future, that would help the case.

People can discuss as much as they like but unless people, governments and the AFL start doing something it's pointless.

It's pointless saying Pth3 is technically possible unless there's an emotional plan.
Same with Brs3.
It's pointless saying Ade3 is emotionally possible unless there's a technical plan.
It's pointless saying Canberra is possible unless people back up their plan.

 

[Ian Dunross]

I think it's highly unlikely we don't see a 20th team before 2040.

The AFL has already signalled their intent for a 20th team.

In the past century, the AFL has never gone more than four seasons with odd teams. I can't see it having odd teams for 13-plus seasons.

It seems absurd to me that we could have another new team so soon after GC, GWS and Tassie but they are good points.

 

[Ian Dunross]

I think it’ll be 2032 or 2033, coinciding with the new media rights deal or the Giants exiting Canberra.

That makes sense

 

[Canberra Pear]

It seems absurd to me that we could have another new team so soon after GC, GWS and Tassie but they are good points.

I think the early 2030s is most likely for the 20th team. Around 2032.

At that point, Gold Coast and GWS would have both been in for 20 years. For comparison, there was only 14 years between Port and the Suns joining.

2032 will give Tasmania four years as the new kid on the block. That will give a much more even draft compared to the Suns/Giants back-to-back entries. The Devils will be playing out of Mac Point by 2031, so they'll be fine by then.

 

[MelbourneGWS]

I think it’ll be 2032 or 2033, coinciding with the new media rights deal or the Giants exiting Canberra.

Whilst I think you are right about the 20th team coming with the new media deal that will start in 2032, I wouldn’t be too quick to assume the Giants will be leaving Canberra. The Giants, AFL and the ACT Government signed an initial deal in 2010 that was extended for a 10 year term that currently expires at the end of 2032. The AFL, Giants and the ACT Government all seem happy with the deal, so it is likely to be further extended. Unlike Tasmania 19 there is no momentum or public demand for a standalone ACT team 20 by our ACT Government.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Whilst I think you are right about the 20th team coming with the new media deal that will start in 2032, I wouldn’t be too quick to assume the Giants will be leaving Canberra. The Giants, AFL and the ACT Government signed an initial deal in 2010 that was extended for a 10 year term that currently expires at the end of 2032. The AFL, Giants and the ACT Government all seem happy with the deal, so it is likely to be further extended. Unlike Tasmania 19 there is no momentum or public demand for a standalone ACT team 20 by our ACT Government.

You sure about that?

The ACT Chief Minister has spruiked Canberra's credentials multiple times. He's literally said the Giants "are not a roadblock" to the 20th team.

Whereas the NT CM said they're "just not in a position for that at all right now".

And I haven't heard anything from the premiers of the other states discussed.

They're not screaming it from the rooftops, but the ACT government has probably been the most vocally in favour of the 20th team of all local governments.

 

[MelbourneGWS]

You sure about that?

The ACT Chief Minister has spruiked Canberra's credentials multiple times. He's literally said the Giants "are not a roadblock" to the 20th team.

Whereas the NT CM said they're "just not in a position for that at all right now".

And I haven't heard anything from the premiers of the other states discussed.

They're not screaming it from the rooftops, but the ACT government has probably been the most vocally in favour of the 20th team of all local governments.

I would have interpreted what Barr said as not advocating for us having a standalone Canberra AFL team, but rather him being politic and saying it’s possible - stating there’s no roadblock is not very strong support? Barr is not pushing for a Canberra Team 20 or threatening punitive options like the Tassie government did to get Team 19? The ACT4 GWS campaign also had a strong grassroots campaign when the Giants were being formed as Team 18.

As for NT, I honestly don’t think they are in the equation for Team 20, absent a ridiculous amount of government funding - I think there’s more chance of QLD 3 before NT. I believe it is between Canberra and WA3 for a 20th team, but think WA3 has an edge due to various reasons that posters in the thread have said. If the WA Premier ever publicly came out in support of WA3, it would be decisive.

 

[Adelaide Hawk]

There's already too many teams.