A question to the knowledgeable :)

[Danger Mouse]

The scene, horse racing...

Single bets vs Backing mutiple horses in said race...

Not dutching, just put the same wager on each horse and let them go with the worst result looking to break even if any one of them get in.

So the question is for someone who doesnt do the tapes and put the study in BUT follows them enough to know most runners pretty well would it be more profitable long term looking at races with value and putting in what you consider say the 3 best horses in (one of them at least 10-15/1) versus liking said horse, backing said horse and hoping it wins.

The reason i'm asking this is because i have been getting brutally unlucky in the last few weeks. Had a couple of 50/1 shots get nosed out on the line when my other fancy beat it while also having to put up with the pitfalls of horse racing... missing the start, speed battle in front where each jockey butchers there chances, the list goes on.

Streamlined question, back one horse vs backing long shot with 2 savers to cover your arse when the inevitable happens?

Do the pros (no i'm not even close) ever do this by the way?

Hope i made sense, if not, move along..

 

[frantelle]

ok the true value of what a horse is worth is like...if u bet one dollar on every single horse in every single race...in the long term u would end up even. no odds are ever anywhere near this figure so u have higher risk for less return

i hate to burst ur bubble there is no such thing as an abitrage profit for horse racing punting...it cant be done

 

[Captain_Knowall]

Personally I never back multiple horses... If i'm keen on a longshot, usually back it e.w, then would take a boxed quinella or exacta with other horses I fancy...

 

[sethlad]

i hate to burst ur bubble there is no such thing as an abitrage profit for horse racing punting...it cant be done

I think you may have a different understanding of arbitrage to me.
In its purest form it is simply taking advantage of a price fluctuation & this can be done on every horse in every race....if done well.

Can you make a book so that no matter which horse wins,you win...YES
Do most punters have the patience or funds to do it.....NO

Back to the original question....some serious punters back multiple horses in a race,Sean Bartholomew is one example,heres a very interesting i/v he did for racenet
www.racenettv.com.au/default.asp?f=08A20.asx&h=Sean.wmv&a=6

seth

 

[Danger Mouse]

Excellent fellas and thanks for the link Seth, enjoyed the clip immensely, gave me some new insights..

 

[sethlad]

No drama,that is the sort of i/v that everyone who punts should see....whether you agree with him or not.
Its vital to know what the top guys are doing but its rare that they are so candid.
Now he's got his own agency I guess he's a bit less concerned.

Theres a follow up discussion on another forum (which I wont post here) but if you wanna read more,PM me sometime

seth

 

[frantelle]

I think you may have a different understanding of arbitrage to me.
In its purest form it is simply taking advantage of a price fluctuation & this can be done on every horse in every race....if done well.

Can you make a book so that no matter which horse wins,you win...YES
Do most punters have the patience or funds to do it.....NO

Back to the original question....some serious punters back multiple horses in a race,Sean Bartholomew is one example,heres a very interesting i/v he did for racenet
www.racenettv.com.au/default.asp?f=08A20.asx&h=Sean.wmv&a=6

seth

i couldnt watch that video for some reason

anyway ive been punting keenly for several years and am currently doing a statistics course at uni

my understanding of arbitrage is a guaranteed return for no risk

i dont no if anyone has done it, id imagine a professor of statistics would have a better understanding

for it to work u need to know everything about everything in horse racing and urself be able to calculate accurately a horses % chance of winning (which is near on impossible to do without having over 100000 sets of data, eg the TAB)
u would also need to shop around for hte best prices because even a 50cent difference in the price makes a massive difference long term

im sure if u did it like 10 times (over a year) maybe once or twice u will end up in the black

what u must remember when betting on multiple horses is that if u win...ur profit is quite small...but if u win nothing..then ur loss is massive

TAB and the bookies never give odds that are proportionate to the chances of winning
eg 50% chance of winning should be odds of $2
10% chance of winning should be odds of $10
1% chance of winning should be odds of $100

look at footy odds as an example
if the game is a close game and both are even chances of winning

the odds for both teams is $1.80 odd
meaning if u bet the same amount on both teams u r a guaranteed loser
50% chance of winning for the TAB equates to odds of around $1.80

i suppose if u really knew statistics inside and out and were able to accurately calculate the chance of a horse winning (which would be near on impossible) then shopped around everywhere for odds that reflect what UR throughts on the % chance of winning are then i suppose it might be able to be done (i couldnt say yes or no without actually doing it, and i know i am no where near capable of doing it)

 

[sethlad]

I think we are on different paths,I hear what you're saying but Ill give you a very simple example from today.

Kilmore Harness R6:Betfair

Back Just Glorious150 @ $1.77 for a $115.50 profit
Lay Just Glorious 160 @ $1.63 for a $100.80 loss

If it wins,profit is $14.70 (minus your max 5% commission)
If it doesnt,profit is $10 (minus your max 5% commission)

These were actual prices,IMO this meets the definition of guaranteed return for no risk.

seth

 

[frantelle]

I think we are on different paths,I hear what you're saying but Ill give you a very simple example from today.

Kilmore Harness R6:Betfair

Back Just Glorious150 @ $1.77 for a $115.50 profit
Lay Just Glorious 160 @ $1.63 for a $100.80 loss

If it wins,profit is $14.70 (minus your max 5% commission)
If it doesnt,profit is $10 (minus your max 5% commission)

These were actual prices,IMO this meets the definition of guaranteed return for no risk.

seth

i havent looked at betfair before
does a lay mean any place other then a win?

 

[sethlad]

i havent looked at betfair before
does a lay mean any place other then a win?

Yes

seth

 

[Daytripper]

With Betfair operating at around 104% most race days, it is possible to back all horses in a single race and get your own market below 100%.
A lot of work but you should be able to back every single horse in the race for a guaranteed profit (albeit small).