A reality check

[Bluebear]

I think there have been some interesting comments about our team since the start of the year and we have had a reality check.
So lets clear up a few things:

• We are NOT a top 4 side. Scroll down the board and there's a thread about it......if we beat the Pies we ARE a top 4 team......The fact is we fielded the second youngest team in the comp yesterday, younger than the Dees......and the Bombers..........yet their inconsistency is O.K. because they are young.
• 3 of our 6 forwards have less than 20 games experience, and our best forward has played less than 10 games as a forward - the fact we are kicking winning scores is nothing short of amazing and should be acknowledged. The calls for another power forward, drop Henderson, do X, Y, and Z to fix our forward line are misplaced. We are having trouble stopping scores......not creating them.
• Our midfield and small defenders didn't defend well yesterday, and they ARE experienced enough to do better. Judd, Gibbs, Murphy, McLean, Russell, Armifield, Carrazzo, Simpson........must mainatain the same sort of defensive pressure we did vs Cats week in, week out if we are to be a top 4 side. Seeing a "career best" effort and expecting it every week is ridiculous...........does anyone now expect Setanta to kick 100 goals in a season because he kicked a bag of 5 once?
• Two parts of our game plan need to improve if we are to take the next step:

1. Bringing the ball in from a behind.
Continues to be a headache. Why we continue to play a high risk game of hitting short targets by foot in the defensive 50m, when we lack the skills to do it - Russ, Brock......JUDDY......they have all made howlers trying to thread the needle in recent times.
Here's a novel idea. We are a very good clearance side and often do well at stoppages..........so lets push both ruck to the one wing with about 3-4 mids and kick it long to them - outnumber the zone. At worst we lock it on and they then have to break the zone and man up for a stoppage.
I'm no AFL coach, but its just a thought.

2. Team defence.
If we are trying it we suck at it, but to me we seem to be doing what teams did up until the early 00's, where you backed yourself to beat your man, and occasionally you got some help with someone zoning off their man. When things get bad we throw the spare man back.
Not sure if its just a fitness thing, as against the Cats we seemed to run in numbers and pressure the ball carrier, but I just wonder if our midfielders are defensively minded enough to do this week in, week out. Judd, Murph and Gibbs along with the whipping boy in McLeanall got caught out going hard forwards and less so the other way.
I think it is a mindset, and not so much about fitness.
On this, I think at the end of this year, we should move heaven and Earth to get SOS back as a defensive coach. Not only would he be a great mentor one on one for Jammo, Bower, Austin and White, but he holds the keys to the gameplan of the best defensive outfit in the comp.

• We snuck into the 8 last year with a win over an undermanned and injured Geelong, lost our FF (Fev), good ball carrier and skillful mid (Stevo) and CHB (counting Waite out for the first 6 rounds as a CHB). Realistically we weren't going to "take a step" into the Top 4, but we may well go backwards. We are on track to play finals.
• Tempo footy got us back into the game yesterday when the lead was out to 39 points.......STOP BOOING LIKE A MINDLESS IDIOT WHEN THEY DO IT AND ACTUALLY WATCH THE RESULT.

As a young side we will be inconsistent. We played a very well drilled side yesterday and we lost the game in 10 bad minutes of footy at the start of the second and end of the third quarters.

Our best will beat the best, but we need to iron out the worst, and that comes with time and expereince.

Deal with it.

 

[Sin City]

[*]Our midfield and small defenders didn't defend well yesterday

Yep, big factor yesterday.

 

[BlueSnake]

Great post, agree 100%

 

[Chodders]

Top post as always Bluebear. It really was a reality check for the Blues yesterday. The final margin was a bit of a blow out but Collingwood were the better side for most of yesterday and deserved to win.

3-3 for Carlton is not a terrible position and is probably about where many of us would have predicted we would be at the start of the season. I believe if we can win two of our next four, be 5-5 and have a positive percentage, we will give ourselves a great launch pad to the finals.

Here is a thought for you all. In 1999 Carlton lost to Essendon twice during the regular season by a combined total of about 110 points. I think we all know what happened the third time they played that year. The relevance to yesterday is that Collingwood were clearly the better team like Essendon in 1999 but they only need to be a little off their game and I know this Carlton team can beat them. Looking forward to playing the filth later in the year

 

[rampar]

I'm tired of not seeing any affective shepparding. It seems carlton are content to draw the man then handball over the top (risking another turnover) when a simple sheppard would have been sufficient.

 

[HeziBarecket]

Collingwood are champions at the turn-over conversion and we basically let them do it at will.

It also didn't help that the only forward structure we had involved an Irishman who started playing the game in his twenties, while the guys who were born with a footy in their hands were too busy trying to shove it up their arses.

It's becoming bi-polar though - one week our defense is great, the next week they leak 24 goals...

 

[abczyx666]

Turnovers and pressure!

Got to dispose the ball more effectively while under pressure rather than handball the football to another player who is guaranteed of getting tackled.

We were also destroyed in the tackle count, 59 to 88. We do so much better when we get the turnovers and quickly get the ball inside our forward 50 to our small forwards.

 

[gbatman]

Yeah I think you are pretty spot on here Bear. I think getting a few individuals up and going like Austin and Waite are important for us too. That is so players like Bower and White can play on forwards more their own size and spend more time attacking.

There is nothing wrong with dropping a young player for a few games back to the VFL when they are struggling. A result like Robinson is great, he has gone back to the VFL after struggling to find the ball, played midfield in an attacking role, gathered 44 posessions and kicked 3 goals. He'll be back in this week and be all the better for it for his time back. Same with Russell last year, came back a better player after his spell in the VFL last year. I think Henderson might be due for a run back there just to get his hands on the footy, get his confidence up and harden his mentality. Mclean is in the same boat, he needs to go back to the VFL and have some big games to get back in touch. It's time for Mclean and Henderson to go back to the VFL and do what Robinson as done, kill it and get some form back.

Also yesterday when we won the ball we pushed too many numbers forward, when the turn over happened we were exposed out the back.

 

[Faz 2000]

Collingwood are a better side than us at the moment. 3-3 after six is not a disaster... I'd have pencilled in an "L" against the Pies before the season (though, naturally, HOPED for something different). Still the only game I can't emotionally process yet is the Essendon game. I know I keep mentioning that... but win that, we're 4-2, lost only to strong sides, etc, etc.

3-3 and a game against the Saints isn't so great.

We definitely need to steal more games we "shouldn't win" if we're going to drop games we "should" win, if we are to play finals. But if we can do that, making finals this year is a GREAT result.

And yes, to echo the points made up above, we are a young side, and there's a lot of hardness, experience, decision-making and poise that can come naturally over the next 2-3 years which WILL see us be a top 4 side.

 

[Bluebear]

Yeah I think you are pretty spot on here Bear. I think getting a few individuals up and going like Austin and Waite are important for us too. That is so players like Bower and White can play on forwards more their own size and spend more time attacking.

There is nothing wrong with dropping a young player for a few games back to the VFL when they are struggling. A result like Robinson is great, he has gone back to the VFL after struggling to find the ball, played midfield in an attacking role, gathered 44 posessions and kicked 3 goals. He'll be back in this week and be all the better for it for his time back. Same with Russell last year, came back a better player after his spell in the VFL last year. I think Henderson might be due for a run back there just to get his hands on the footy, get his confidence up and harden his mentality. Mclean is in the same boat, he needs to go back to the VFL and have some big games to get back in touch. It's time for Mclean and Henderson to go back to the VFL and do what Robinson as done, kill it and get some form back.

Also yesterday when we won the ball we pushed too many numbers forward, when the turn over happened we were exposed out the back.

McLean out for Robbo I can see.
Why do you cut White so much slack yet are dumping on Henderson at every chance?
Waite in for White.
If we had another forward then I'd send Hendo back. We don't. Wiggins should be left to mentor the two's, Casboult looks good but will get mauled and could be "Livo'd" if we throw him in too early. Hampson is injured, and even if he wasn't isn't likely to do much more on exposed form.
So who do you bring in for Henderson?

 

[Silvagnis]

[*]Tempo footy got us back into the game yesterday when the lead was out to 39 points.......STOP BOOING LIKE A MINDLESS IDIOT WHEN THEY DO IT AND ACTUALLY WATCH THE RESULT.

They boo because they're forum members and have no idea.

 

[ESKIE]

Good opening post their Bear, and agree with most of it, and posted something similar elsewhere, one thins Ido disagree on , is we snuck into the 8 last year, don;t believe we did we won what was it 13 games, we earnt it I believe. Essendon snuck into the 8

We are definitely not a top 4 side, so those carrying on about that need to get some perspective, however, reckon we are a top 8 side and don;t believe we should go backwards this year.

But as we know like everyone it depends on injuries and suspensions, Judd would have been mighty handy against Brisbane and Essendon, and Bower for that matter.

Go Blues

 

[gbatman]

McLean out for Robbo I can see.
Why do you cut White so much slack yet are dumping on Henderson at every chance?
Waite in for White.
If we had another forward then I'd send Hendo back. We don't. Wiggins should be left to mentor the two's, Casboult looks good but will get mauled and could be "Livo'd" if we throw him in too early. Hampson is injured, and even if he wasn't isn't likely to do much more on exposed form.
So who do you bring in for Henderson?

I think White's defficiancies are smarts. He gets out of position and loses his man a bit but he'll get better. To learn AFL you need to play AFL, not VFL. I'm willing to be patient with him, we are playing him on much bigger opposition players so not all his fault, I think this demonstrates how much we need Austin though.

I think if Waite played in a key position up forward, closer to goal, more centeral and more targeted he'd do alright. I don't think he did well as a 3rd tall, he struggled to find the ball, I think he has to be a key forward target or a back man.

Henderson does need to be persisted with, but there are stages in some players development where going back to the reserves can be benificial and I think that's where he's at at the moment.

The Waite for White move I would be happy with also though, I think Waite could bring more to the side than White and White would just have to wait and earn his next chance back in the VFL.

On another note the loss of Walker really hurt us, it was a mental win for them as much as anything.

 

[Blues_Man]

Top thread BB, you are spot on the money.. we are further ahead than expectations in regard to development ...I also believe our list has a far bigger upside than Collingwoods, despite yesterdays result .

 

[Bluebear]

*BUMP*

Not bumping this because I wrote it, but just thought that the key points need to be made again amongst the euphoria of beating the two Grand finalists in the last few weeks.

- Saints were poor. When Goddard is missing a 20m pass by 5m under no pressure you know you haven't got them at the peak of their powers (as we did when we went very close last year). Having said that they are usually good enough to cover that and we didn't let them, so still huge wraps to us.
- We are still very young and WILL be inconsistent. Bank on losing another game soon that you think we should win.
- The fact that with our best efforts we are now capable of beating anyone should be cause for optimism for the future, not an expectation for the present. As our list matures we should expect more of these performances week in, week out, but with Garlett and Yarran in particular, they are learning one of the hardest positions on the ground which usually takes 4-5 seasons to perfect, and doing it well, but they won't do this every week this year.
- Yes, if everything went our way (injuries, form, opposition form) we could do a Hawthorn and "pinch" a flag, but as we have seen with the Hawks since, it wasn't because they were that good......they got lucky.......hence we would need to get lucky too........highly unlikely IMO.

A great result for the club in the last month and puts us ahead of where most pundits would have had us at this point (they aren't talking about our "horror draw" anymore ), but we have some tough games coming up and unless something remarkable happens, I can all but assure you we will drop a game you think we shouldn't.........maybe WCE here, Dees........Roos.......but the future is looking bright.

 

[dane]

killjoy.

 

[Alpha1]

Great thread this one, we have a long way to go to be a top 6 side, we might just scrape into the top 8 again this year, but that's ok. We will have great wins and we will fail sometimes, but we will learn, we are building a good young list but there are still holes to fill and players who are still discovering where they belong/fit in at the club.

Even our coaching staff is discovering a few things about us, like I had mentioned in a previous post, our team and staff are growing together, you could say growing pains, I think we have discovered we play best when we move the ball quickly, and we struggle/suffer when we chip it around and turnover the ball. We don't have players yet with the stamina/skills to chip the ball around or play a slow tempo game, but this will improve in the next 2 seasons. We are blooding kids with great disposal skills in Lucas, Yarran and a few others, to be a great team we need elite skills.

I am quite happy where we are heading, the thing I enjoyed most about the Geelong and Saints win was the fact we gave it 110% right to the end, against the Pies we only played 20 minutes and almost snatched the game, but it also showed the kids in the team that to beat quality sides you need to play 110% and be switched on from go to woe. I don't mind being beaten as long as you can see them give it their all, we have a long way to go yes, but we have also come a long way as well, all credit to the coaching staff and the playing squad. It makes me happy to see players striving to improve, players like JR who has done a complete 360 and is playing great football, I think that is going to be the biggest gain for us this season.

 

[zeeCFC]

Well said Bb, think we are a chance of losing this week's match from the experience of being in an absolute high one week to a devastating low the next. Hopefully we've progressed enough for us to re-write the script again this week

 

[Blueboys11]

If Sydney, Brisbane and Fremantle have designs on being a top 4 side, then I have no doubt Carlton also should have this aim.

After smashing the 2 grandfinalists from last year, the time is now!!!

 

[Blue Bawls]

Great OP and back-up post, BB.

However, I disagree with Alpha's view that we'll just scrape into the eight this year. I think we've shown ourselves to be genuine finals contenders at the least - we've taken a sidestep from last year's structure and rebuilt a new one that appears to be even more effective.

One telling thing that gives me that confidence was the glimpse into the inner sanctum during the coverage on Monday where Riley and Harvey laid down the law re tackles and defensive pressure. They made it clear that that's where they believe games are won and lost, and on Monday it was dog-balls evident that the message sank in.

As BB says, we are young and inexperienced, but we also have pace and heart, and that means we can run down the opposition when we put our minds to it. We saw it Monday and that's where I believe our success this year lies.

That intensity doesn't require years of experience or extraordinary skill (even though we have an abundance brewing in our cooking pot), it just requires endeavour. It's funny how other things fall into place when you try your guts out...

 

[95blues]

I dont think there is a team in the AFL we cant beat when we play our best game. Its just a matter of having all of the players believe in and follow the game plan 100% ie collingwood, who are extremely structured and very rarely deviate from their game plan.

 

[Kramer1]

I don't think we are a long way from being a top four side at all.

Yes the Collingwood game was a reality check, but I don't think we should read any more into than the games either side. Leave that to the main board. Whilst it blew out in the end we were able to get ourselves within 3 points with a 15 minute burst of high intensity football...good sides do that. It's just that intensity and application solrely lacked for the other 85 or so minutes in the match.

We will have disappointing losses...but that happens to all teams. The domination showed by individual teams in recent years, especially Geelong and St Kilda in 09, is not normal. Even our 95 team, certainly one of the finest ever to take the field, copped a couple of reasonable touch ups on the way to the flag.

By the end of next year we will have pretty much all of our key players sitting somewhere between 50 and 150 games. That's when it will start to get interesting.

 

[CrippsonBlue]

Yes, if everything went our way (injuries, form, opposition form) we could do a Hawthorn and "pinch" a flag, but as we have seen with the Hawks since, it wasn't because they were that good......they got lucky.......hence we would need to get lucky too........highly unlikely IMO

So annoying when you read shit like this.

You don't win a flag by simply getting lucky.

 

[parrot]

Seen enough. We can win the flag this year. We've got a few months of the H&A stuff to fine tune things and get some consistency.

 

[chaser1]

Great thread this one, exactly agree we will be inconsistent and drop games that we are favorites for. This week could be one i hope not, when the boys get the 50-100 games up added to the very experinced 130 games up, then you will see if we are going to be a powerhouse.

Stringing 4 or 5 wins now with this group given our injuries,ie bower, walker, fringe players grigg, hadley etc will tell you that we are not far away at all. If we do string 4 or 5 wins together now, barring KEY injuries, then i see no reason why we can't make the top four.

Patience with our supporters is also vital, dont let the Geelong and ST kilda wins fool you. The competition is very even most sides can beat others at any given day irrespective of ladder positions. Look at the improvement on Fremantle and Melbourne so far. Confidence is a big thing in football. LIke Justin Madden said, football is played 90 percent above the shoulders!