Expansion A third team in Queensland? AFL acknowledges QLD3 as a 20th licence option

[LordLucifer]

Been saying it for years .................

AFL overtaking NRL in QLD

Membership is not the inherent part of rugby league culture that it is in AFL. Attendance is not the inherent part of rugby league culture that it is in AFL.

www.bigfooty.com

VIC - 7
NSW - 5 (add in Central Coast/Newcastle, North Shore & Illawarra)
QLD - 4 (add in 2nd Brisbane team, relocate Melbourne club to Sunshine coast)
TAS - 1
SA - 2
WA - 2
ACT -1 (relocate Melbourne club)

22 clubs play each other once in a 21-round season with no byes, 10 club finals series.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Agreed. The AFL won't want an uneven amount of teams for too long and if it hasn't already happened, then it will definitely be on the agenda by the time we reach 2035. In reality, Queensland is becoming too enticing for the AFL to ignore and that looks like it's only going to intensify with both the Lions and Suns having young + talented lists. Plus, they wouldn't want the NRL to get too much of a hold on the northern Brisbane / Sunshine Coast market now that the Dolphins have been around for a few years already.



The Sunshine Coast currently has a population of around 400k people and is growing really fast (more than double the rate of Canberra). Canberra has a population of around 450k. The Sunny Coast is very likely to overtake Canberra in terms of population in the next 10-20 years. Then you've got the 1 million+ people who live in northern Brisbane and an extra 450k in between Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast in an area called Moreton Bay. So you're essentially dealing with a market of around 2 million people for a QLD3 team.

2 million people in northern corridor Brisbane vs 450k people in Canberra. It's a pretty easy decision from my perspective.

Do you have those stats on growth?

Because the ACT has literally been the fastest growing state/territory for the past two censuses. Projections continuously underestimate ACT growth, so there's a good chance we will be the fastest growing again in the 2026 census.

You're also counting just the ACT. Our city flows over the border. Within about an hour, we've got about 600k people.

 

[Colonial]

Been saying it for years .................

AFL overtaking NRL in QLD

Membership is not the inherent part of rugby league culture that it is in AFL. Attendance is not the inherent part of rugby league culture that it is in AFL.

www.bigfooty.com

VIC - 7
NSW - 5 (add in Central Coast/Newcastle, North Shore & Illawarra)
QLD - 4 (add in 2nd Brisbane team, relocate Melbourne club to Sunshine coast)
TAS - 1
SA - 2
WA - 2
ACT -1 (relocate Melbourne club)

22 clubs play each other once in a 21-round season with no byes, 10 club finals series.

NSW.
Newcastle have one of the oldest clubs out there in Australian Rules with Newcastle City.
Bears (Bombers original name) to join in an expanded North Sydney oval.
Giants to change their name to Western Sydney and play only up here.
Illawarra? Nah. That whole south area can be Swans, especially as they no longer would have the West or North.
Canberra deserve their own spot. Allows the Giants to grow in the west.

 

[Cleric]

Been saying it for years .................

AFL overtaking NRL in QLD

Membership is not the inherent part of rugby league culture that it is in AFL. Attendance is not the inherent part of rugby league culture that it is in AFL.

www.bigfooty.com

VIC - 7
NSW - 5 (add in Central Coast/Newcastle, North Shore & Illawarra)
QLD - 4 (add in 2nd Brisbane team, relocate Melbourne club to Sunshine coast)
TAS - 1
SA - 2
WA - 2
ACT -1 (relocate Melbourne club)

22 clubs play each other once in a 21-round season with no byes, 10 club finals series.

If you want crowds of 3,000 people and a financial drain on the AFL and other teams, sure.

 

[LordLucifer]

If you want crowds of 3,000 people and a financial drain on the AFL and other teams, sure.

The Saints & North are already a financial drain on the AFL :

St Kilda president Andrew Bassat says his club needs to “get off welfare” but maintains it is only partly to blame for its financial position.

The Saints received $26.1 million in AFL funding in 2024, behind only North Melbourne ($26.4 million) among Victorian clubs.

Time to move them both interstate where they can build a new future.

 

[GC2015]

Nope.

View attachment 2241569

View attachment 2241572

At least make an effort to look up the stats before making claims like this.

You'd be surprised at how much thought I did put into those numbers.

So there's a few factors going on here. That census took place in August 2021 (nearly four years ago) and Covid skewed a lot of data back then. Interstate migration numbers were certainly inflated in some areas because people were desperate to get out of the NSW/Victoria lockdowns at the time, so I was trying to account for that. My understanding is Queensland's migration numbers continued at a high rate beyond the Covid period and other states/territories did not. Admittedly, I haven't researched that extensively and could be wrong. Anyway, if you assume a similar growth rate of 10k per year for the Sunny Coast, then it should be sitting around 390-400k population now. It could be even higher considering migration to Queensland has been immense in the last five years.

My understanding is Canberra's growth rate had dropped once we moved on from the Covid period and was something like 1.2% annually. So again, apply the same logic of trying to predict growth, but account for the lowering of the growth rate (just my basic understanding of Canberra, I could be wrong) and you're probably looking at around an extra 15k people living in Canberra. So maybe around 480k total now? Obviously we don't know true population numbers without the census, but it's a rough prediction for the sake of a BF post.

To be clear, what I was really trying to point out was that the northern Brisbane + Moreton Bay + Sunshine Coast has a population of approximately 2 million and how it would be a no brainer to put a team there over the 450-500k people living in Canberra.

Do you have those stats on growth?

Because the ACT has literally been the fastest growing state/territory for the past two censuses. Projections continuously underestimate ACT growth, so there's a good chance we will be the fastest growing again in the 2026 census.

You're also counting just the ACT. Our city flows over the border. Within about an hour, we've got about 600k people.

Nothing official from the government, but when I Google 2024 population growth in Canberra, there are lots of sites suggesting between 1-1.3% growth. Obviously none of those are great sources without government confirmation, but I did see a few government related posts that suggest they believe the ACT will hit 500,000 in 2030. So we at least know that Canberra doesn't have a population of 500k (yet).

Well, if you want to talk about border populations then you've got another city of 500k in Moreton Bay right below the Sunshine Coast as well as 1 million+ northern Brisbane residents within 40-60 mins from the Sunny Coast. Then there's lots of tourists staying there at any given time. The Sunshine Coast is like the Gold Coast in that sense e.g the amount of people on the GC balloons to over 1 million during summer because so many people holiday here and the Sunshine Coast would also have that going on because it's a very desirable holiday destination.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

You'd be surprised at how much thought I did put into those numbers.

So there's a few factors going on here. That census took place in August 2021 (nearly four years ago) and Covid skewed a lot of data back then.

You're right, I'd be extremely surprised, since the numbers I gave are from 2022 and 2023, not from the census. The ABS does things other than the census too.

Admittedly, I haven't researched that extensively and could be wrong.

I think that would be a very good thing for you to do before continuing this line of argument.

To be clear, what I was really trying to point out was that the northern Brisbane + Moreton Bay + Sunshine Coast has a population of approximately 2 million and how it would be a no brainer to put a team there over the 450-500k people living in Canberra.

They are not a contiguous area and you should know better than to lump them together. I expect this level of ignorance of the area from a Victorian, not a Queenslander.

 

[LB#16]

A team in the capital city caps off the national competition nicely. It has to be Canberra.

 

[Nugett]

Bring back Fitzroy, Brisbane can go back to being the bears…

 

[Colonial]

Bring back Fitzroy, Brisbane can go back to being the bears…

No, there’s more than enough Victorians in this national comp.

 

[Philhawk]

Is the plan to ever have a non compromised draft? All this does is push back the dream of a fully equalized competition back another decade (or more).

 

[strand_victor]

Maybe so. It's obviously something they haven't ruled out. Just remember, Brisbane is the only major capital city in Australia that doesn't have two AFL teams and we know a new world class oval stadium is on its way for the Olympics. I'm sure the Queensland government would like the idea of having weekly events at the new stadium.

Lions were a Basket Case not long ago. Another Team in Brisbane will Cannibalise the Lions Supporter Base. The Last Thing we need is another Club being a Financial Drain on the AFL, and while the Suns remain a Huge Financial Drain it's Hard to see the Clubs voting in favour of another Team in Queensland.

 

[GC2015]

You're right, I'd be extremely surprised, since the numbers I gave are from 2022 and 2023, not from the census. The ABS does things other than the census too.


I think that would be a very good thing for you to do before continuing this line of argument.


They are not a contiguous area and you should know better than to lump them together. I expect this level of ignorance of the area from a Victorian, not a Queenslander.

Alright mate. If you want to argue semantics about exact population numbers then let's just make it really simple. Brisbane is bigger than Canberra. We can agree on that. Half of Brisbane is also bigger than Canberra. I think we can agree on that.

Does Brisbane's 1 million+ population in the northern half of the city jump the expansion queue ahead of Canberra's 500k population? That's really what we're discussing here. The Sunshine Coast and Moreton Bay are just add ons. Brisbane is the main target.

I think I already know your answer because you're a Lions fan and virtually every Lions fan I've spoken to has pushed back on the idea of a second team in Brisbane one day. So it's probably hard to get an unbiased response from you anyway, but we'll see what you have to say.

Lions were a Basket Case not long ago. Another Team in Brisbane will Cannibalise the Lions Supporter Base. The Last Thing we need is another Club being a Financial Drain on the AFL, and while the Suns remain a Huge Financial Drain it's Hard to see the Clubs voting in favour of another Team in Queensland.

That's a fair concern. Do you think the AFL were worried about GWS cannibalising the Swans fanbase when they let them in?

Is the plan to ever have a non compromised draft? All this does is push back the dream of a fully equalized competition back another decade (or more).

In truth, the AFL probably wants an even amount of teams more than they do an even playing field at the draft.

 

[GC2015]

They are not a contiguous area and you should know better than to lump them together. I expect this level of ignorance of the area from a Victorian, not a Queenslander.

I did point that out. I stated that Moreton Bay was in between. Also, that's not how the NRL viewed it when they started their newest expansion team. The Dolphins played home games in Brisbane, Moreton Bay and the Sunshine Coast when they entered the NRL. They clearly view it as a combined area for the one team. They've averaged almost 30k at Suncorp since they entered the league so it seems to be working for them.

 

[Colonial]

Is the plan to ever have a non compromised draft? All this does is push back the dream of a fully equalized competition back another decade (or more).

A fully equalized competition is impossible as it is.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Alright mate. If you want to argue semantics about exact population numbers then let's just make it really simple.

Semantics are about the meanings of words. You're trying to claim the statistics I provided are invalid based on them being from 2021 when I had the relevant years in the screenshots. It leaves me thinking you don't read things properly before writing replies.

Brisbane is bigger than Canberra. We can agree on that. Half of Brisbane is also bigger than Canberra. I think we can agree on that.

And Shanghai is bigger than Brisbane but that doesn't mean it's a good idea to prioritise a team there.

I think I already know your answer because you're a Lions fan and virtually every Lions fan I've spoken to has pushed back on the idea of a second team in Brisbane one day. So it's probably hard to get an unbiased response from you anyway, but we'll see what you have to say.

Good grief, I thought the last time we had this disagreement, it would have taught you to not be condescending, but it doesn't look like you've learned yet.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

I did point that out. I stated that Moreton Bay was in between. Also, that's not how the NRL viewed it when they started their newest expansion team. The Dolphins played home games in Brisbane, Moreton Bay and the Sunshine Coast when they entered the NRL. They clearly view it as a combined area for the one team. They've averaged almost 30k at Suncorp since they entered the league so it seems to be working for them.

They've played one game in two years on the Sunshine Coast and couldn't even crack 9000. And their average at Lang Park is significantly boosted by two sellout crowds against the Broncos. Regardless, following everything the NRL do is silly. The NRL think it's a good idea to promote their game in the United States and make the Dolphins play a game while their families are enduring a cyclone.

 

[GC2015]

Semantics are about the meanings of words. You're trying to claim the statistics I provided are invalid based on them being from 2021 when I had the relevant years in the screenshots. It leaves me thinking you don't read things properly before writing replies.

No, you accused me of not putting in an effort to show accurate data and attempted to correct my 2025 population estimations by showing stats from 2022-23. I then tried to give my logic as to why I thought the numbers had changed in the last few years based on what I saw in the 2021 census data and my general understanding of population growth.

I never suggested that your statistics were invalid (go back and read it if you don't believe me) and I also stated multiple times that I could been wrong. I'm not a statistician and I think arguing over whether the Sunshine Coast has a population of 380k or 400k in 2025 is rather meaningless. However, you do seem to keep ignoring my overriding point about Brisbane being the main destination for a third QLD club as per the Herald Sun/Code Sports report from yesterday.

And Shanghai is bigger than Brisbane but that doesn't mean it's a good idea to prioritise a team there.

How is Shanghai in any way comparable to Brisbane in terms of a suitable fit for an AFL expansion club? Brisbane are the literal premiers of the AFL that sold out 9 of their 11 home games at the Gabba last year and Shanghai has hosted a few low drawing games during a old venture that has been mostly regarded as a massive failure by the footy community. Apples and oranges.

Good grief, I thought the last time we had this disagreement, it would have taught you to not be condescending, but it doesn't look like you've learned yet.

So you call me ignorant, suggest I should know better for something you claim I didn't do (even though I did) and compare me to a Victorian in terms of knowledge of my own home state - and I'm the condescending one because I respond by pointing out that you may have a bias towards the team you support? Righto.

You STILL haven't responded to the question about whether Brisbane's northern corridor should be prioritised ahead of Canberra in terms of AFL expansion, which just makes me think I was right about you potentially holding a bias and that you just want to create a distraction to steer the conversation away from a topic that could heavily affect your club.

They've played one game in two years on the Sunshine Coast and couldn't even crack 9000. And their average at Lang Park is significantly boosted by two sellout crowds against the Broncos. Regardless, following everything the NRL do is silly. The NRL think it's a good idea to promote their game in the United States and make the Dolphins play a game while their families are enduring a cyclone.

Considering the Sunshine Coast Stadium has a capacity of 10k, I'd say a crowd of 8821 is a pretty good outcome. Context is important when discussing these things

No doubt the Broncos games pull their average up, just like how the Magpies would pull Melbourne's MCG crowd average up each year, but the Dolphins have also drawn 30k+ Suncorp crowds against the Roosters, Cowboys and Warriors in their short NRL existence. It's not like they're playing in an empty stadium whenever it's not against the Broncos. I think they're going just fine for a team that's yet to play finals.

I'm not advocating for the AFL to follow everything the NRL does. In fact, Andrew Dillon stated publicly that they aren't going to follow suit with the Las Vegas venture and will instead focus on growth areas within Australia (like Queensland). I strongly agree with that policy and think the AFL will get far more out of focusing on growth in Queensland than they will overseas. Hence, why I think starting a second AFL team in Brisbane could be a good idea if it's executed correctly.

 

[theboxmike]

Third qld team seems early before Canberra team

 

[oak79]

We need less teams, not more.

Should be heading back to 12-16 team comp, less teams in 1 one market, less talent dilution and a full home & away fixture

More teams also means likely multiple decades between premierships for most clubs

 

[oak79]

Been saying it for years .................

AFL overtaking NRL in QLD

Membership is not the inherent part of rugby league culture that it is in AFL. Attendance is not the inherent part of rugby league culture that it is in AFL.

www.bigfooty.com

VIC - 7
NSW - 5 (add in Central Coast/Newcastle, North Shore & Illawarra)
QLD - 4 (add in 2nd Brisbane team, relocate Melbourne club to Sunshine coast)
TAS - 1
SA - 2
WA - 2
ACT -1 (relocate Melbourne club)

22 clubs play each other once in a 21-round season with no byes, 10 club finals series.

Crazy - no way you should be adding teams to NSW or QLD before WA or SA - both secondary teams in NSW and QLD have low supporter bases.

Vic - 5
NSW -2
QLD - 2
SA -2
WA - 2
Tas - 1

14 clubs, 26 round season, shorter games, no pre-season, extended squad for player management

But it's all about $$ - which is so wrong. If $$ are what matters most, AFL should pay full business taxes.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

No, you accused me of not putting in an effort to show accurate data and attempted to correct my 2025 population estimations by showing stats from 2022-23.

Your estimations are heavily based on your "understanding" of population trends, meaning they're unscientific. I prefer to use actual data instead of guesstimates.

I never suggested that your statistics were invalid (go back and read it if you don't believe me)

Yeah you did. I brought up numbers from 2022 and 2023 and you started talking about the 2021 census and how it was four years ago and skewed by Covid.

I'm not a statistician and I think arguing over whether the Sunshine Coast has a population of 380k or 400k in 2025 is rather meaningless.

Straw man argument. My contention was with your claim that the population growth rate on the Sunshine Coast is more than double the rate of Canberra, and I showed evidence that the claim was incorrect.

However, you do seem to keep ignoring my overriding point about Brisbane being the main destination for a third QLD club as per the Herald Sun/Code Sports report from yesterday.

I don't care what Murdoch's clickbait merchants have to say.

How is Shanghai in any way comparable to Brisbane in terms of a suitable fit for an AFL expansion club?

It's using an example to show that population isn't the sole factor, there are many other things that go into it.

Brisbane are the literal premiers of the AFL that sold out 9 of their 11 home games at the Gabba last year

And are soon to get a stadium with around 20 000 more seats.

So you call me ignorant, suggest I should know better for something you claim I didn't do (even though I did) and compare me to a Victorian in terms of knowledge of my own home state

Okay, I see you're pretending you didn't say "To be clear, what I was really trying to point out was that the northern Brisbane + Moreton Bay + Sunshine Coast has a population of approximately 2 million and how it would be a no brainer to put a team there over the 450-500k people living in Canberra".

and I'm the condescending one because I respond by pointing out that you may have a bias towards the team you support? Righto.

Yes. The paragraph you wrote was dripping with condescension.

You STILL haven't responded to the question about whether Brisbane's northern corridor should be prioritised ahead of Canberra in terms of AFL expansion,

I already made my stance on that clear in the first post I made in this thread. I'll quote it again for you and bold the relevant parts so it's clear to you this time.

Brisbane is also the only major capital city in Australia with a city of 700 000 people next to it that already has a team. I think Canberra should be the priority.

So there's your answer.

which just makes me think I was right about you potentially holding a bias and that you just want to create a distraction to steer the conversation away from a topic that could heavily affect your club.

I'm amused that you think conversations on Bigfooty are that influential on real life that I'd feel the need to steer the conversation away. You can talk about a second Brisbane team to your heart's content, but don't post nonsense and expect it to not be responded to.

Considering the Sunshine Coast Stadium has a capacity of 10k, I'd say a crowd of 8821 is a pretty good outcome. Context is important when discussing these things

Except that's BS because three matches at the ground have had crowds over 10 000. In fact the ground record of 11 912 was set by two teams who are not from Queensland. If the Sunshine Coast was such a great place for the Dolphins to play, perhaps they wouldn't have played more home games in Perth than on the Sunshine Coast.

No doubt the Broncos games pull their average up, just like how the Magpies would pull Melbourne's MCG crowd average up each year, but the Dolphins have also drawn 30k+ Suncorp crowds against the Roosters, Cowboys and Warriors in their short NRL existence. It's not like they're playing in an empty stadium whenever it's not against the Broncos. I think they're going just fine for a team that's yet to play finals.

Wonderful! But this is Queensland where rugby league is the dominant game. This means nothing for a potential second AFL side, particularly if it doesn't have the Dolphins' decades of history.

 

[Joose]

Perth is the 4th largest city in Australia (pop 2.3 million) and is footy - mad. But it only has two teams.

Put in very crude statistical terms, that is 1.15 million per team. Melbourne has teams per 5.2 million for 9 teams. Roughly 0.5 million per team. Forget Brisbane and Sydney in this equation as they are not AFL states.

Any extra club must be in Perth. The Weagles are basically central Perth , Freo the south while the northern suburbs should be home the new team. Joondalup? Balcatta? South Geraldton?

 

[Cmarsh]

Been saying it for years .................

AFL overtaking NRL in QLD

Membership is not the inherent part of rugby league culture that it is in AFL. Attendance is not the inherent part of rugby league culture that it is in AFL.

www.bigfooty.com

VIC - 7
NSW - 5 (add in Central Coast/Newcastle, North Shore & Illawarra)
QLD - 4 (add in 2nd Brisbane team, relocate Melbourne club to Sunshine coast)
TAS - 1
SA - 2
WA - 2
ACT -1 (relocate Melbourne club)

22 clubs play each other once in a 21-round season with no byes, 10 club finals series.

And which clubs are you relocating to Canberra and Queensland?

 

[Cmarsh]

Crazy - no way you should be adding teams to NSW or QLD before WA or SA - both secondary teams in NSW and QLD have low supporter bases.

Vic - 5
NSW -2
QLD - 2
SA -2
WA - 2
Tas - 1

14 clubs, 26 round season, shorter games, no pre-season, extended squad for player management

But it's all about $$ - which is so wrong. If $$ are what matters most, AFL should pay full business taxes.

So which five Victorian clubs are you cutting from the comp?