A tip

[Falchoon]

Mrs came home with a "tip" on CSL.

I'm not about to trade in the BHP shares but one to keep your eyes and ears open on.

Currently $38.90. The tip might be a bit late as their chart has already been on the up and up. Apparently the only manufacturer of an Avian flu virus.

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[R00StaR]

They are working on a vaccine, if it works and if they can produce quick enough is another matter.

ATM the World Health Organisation recommends governments stockpile Tamiflu and Biota’s Relenza manufactured by GlaxoSmithKline. While most orders have been for Tamiflu so far its expected neither of the companies can met demand of world stockpiling.

Biota (BTA) trades on the ASX, i been holding for a few weeks

 

[morgoth]

Stick to stats Felcher, went long at about $20.

 

[Falchoon]

Stick to stats Felcher, went long at about $20.

hence me not investing. It might have been a "Rivkin" tip, eyes and ears is all

 

[morgoth]

Nah mate, that is what is pushing it along at the moment, prior to that it has been a recovery story after over-supply in the plasma markets. Cash is king and they have great cash flow which is what attracted me in the first place.

In this sort of market valuations are going to be stretched on the upside.

 

[Easterner]

Fellas get on Intermoco bout 5 cents ready to rock and roll.

 

[R00StaR]

BTA up 25% so far today chaps (38% since posting), don’t say you didn’t get fair warning

 

[R00StaR]

Another lazy 44% added today

 

[Ghostwriter]

Their chart is extraordinary, I hope you are into them big as you would be sitting on some big gains, how high do you think they will go?

 

[R00StaR]

Yes Jozeph, very large gains indeed . I had played with a smaller position from 52c to 70c-ish then loaded up big time around 70c where my TA signals gave me an extremely bullish signal.

How far will it go? That’s a tough one mate. At the moment the market is speculating how much of the world stockpiling pie Relenza will get and how their litigation might go. To date some governments including Australia’s have only stockpiled Tamiflu, however demand is expected to outstrip available supplies of both drugs. Already its near impossible to buy your own stockpile, most if not all chemists are sold out! Only 15 out of 120 Governments have stockpiled according to WHO.

Recently in scientific circles there has been argument that Relenza is the better drug. Also in Vietnam and Hong Kong its been reported that a strain of bird flu is resistant to Tamiflu. On the other strains the number of dosages required of Tamiflu to be effective may have been grossly underestimated. This all points to a much larger than first expected market for Relenza.

Diluted with the recent SPP BTA are capped at roughly AUD$350m atm. Biota is suing GlaxoSmithKline for allegedly failing to promote and support Relenza after the drug's launch and is seeking damages of up to A$430 million. The mediation phase is due in November and there is speculation GSK will settle for a substantial amount.

For an idea of the size of the market: The U.S. Senate voted to provide US$3 billion to stockpile Anti-virals, which means Tamiflu and Relenza. BTA receive a 7% royalty from Relenza sales. There have been reports that GlaxoSmithKline will boost production from about 1 million units of Relenza to about 40 million units which usually sell for around $40-$50 per unit. Even without an outbreak of human to human bird flu stockpiles need to be built and replaced over time.

So what was the question again? Oh how far can it go Well that’s anyones guess, the ingredients seem to be there for more to come. Chart wise there is little resistance (TA talk) to about $3. Its seems feasible it could test that price range and possibly exceed it.

 

[Former]

Looking at todays trading - opened at $1.92 and dropped $0.365 to about $1.57. Profit taking or a real plunge?

 

[R00StaR]

Considering the rise its had, many people would’ve been sitting on large profits and rather nervous. I expected volatility to creep in and locked in part profits @ 1.93 yesterday to take advantage of any pullbacks. The trend is clearly up, birdflu is still there and a damages settlement could easily match or exceed BTAs current market cap. Imo its just a shake out, but one can never be 100% sure about anything in the market.

 

[DoubleA]

Looking at todays trading - opened at $1.92 and dropped $0.365 to about $1.57. Profit taking or a real plunge?

Also saw that, and could only think of this thread.

 

[R00StaR]

Also saw that, and could only think of this thread.

Well its still up over 50% in 7-8 trading days since mentioned. Ill let you in on another tip, stocks never go up in a straight line.

 

[DoubleA]

Well its still up over 50% in 7-8 trading days since mentioned. Ill let you in on another tip, stocks never go up in a straight line.

Roostar mate I ain't baggin u or ur tip, infact I'm watching it because of you mentioning it, and especially in this climate a company such as this would be due for a rise.

 

[R00StaR]

Roostar mate I ain't baggin u or ur tip, infact I'm watching it because of you mentioning it, and especially in this climate a company such as this would be due for a rise.

No worries mate, theyre sure worth keeping an eye on imo. Ive bought quite a few back now as this was exactly the kind of move i sold some for. Now hopefully she can kick on from here

 

[R00StaR]

And kick on she has, currently trading at $2.40. 145% in 11 trading days

 

[Smokin]

geez, BTA was a nice pick. well done.

What program and indicators do u use for your TA Roostar?

Anyone keeping an eye on the syringe happenings? Somethings going on with RTL - got a please explain today. Had a sudden increase in stock price and volume. Watching this one carefully.

 

[R00StaR]

Gday Smokin, thx mate im rather pleased as you could imagine. When I first bought I was very very bullish due to the chart and circumstances, but its rocketed far faster than I ever thought.

I use Bullcharts with their live data feed. Indicator wise not much more than RSI, trading bands that I made myself (I could tell ya then id have to kill ya ) then of course price and volume. Nothing complex, the bands just help me confirm overbought/oversolds to trade shorter term swings in combination with candles. Otherwise I follow very simular rules to Weinstein, Bedford and Guppy.

Sold some more around 2.65 today and bought some of those back at close around 2.40. Still have more to buy if she drops, if not ill have plenty (which are all free carried now) to ride the longer term trend.

 

[Deej]

how these shares going now?

 

[Crow-mosone]

Mrs came home with a "tip" on CSL.

I'm not about to trade in the BHP shares but one to keep your eyes and ears open on.

Currently $38.90. The tip might be a bit late as their chart has already been on the up and up. Apparently the only manufacturer of an Avian flu virus.

Home Page

the only maunfactuer of avian vaccine is Roche, and that trades at all time high.

 

[Embers]

Fellas get on Intermoco bout 5 cents ready to rock and roll.

What makes you think this??

 

[Falchoon]

how these shares going now?

Mrs came home with a "tip" on CSL.

I'm not about to trade in the BHP shares but one to keep your eyes and ears open on.

Currently $38.90. The tip might be a bit late as their chart has already been on the up and up. Apparently the only manufacturer of an Avian flu virus.

Home Page

Just re-visited this thread whilst searching for something else.

It certainly wasn't a "bad" tip at 259% in nearly 2 years.
BHP at 185% over the same period.

 

[johnnyhoward]

Safe option, but any time is as good a time as any to jump on BHP or CSL.