Adelaide: future

[No 1 Draft Pick]

Personally I think it's impossible to argue with your logic.

Common sense says that all things being equal the best draftees these days should come from the top picks, leaving out the human element.

However it's not just Adelaide's way to play for picks as it has a huge markey to try and satisfy which Port Adelaide wpuld dearly love to snaffle.

So I guess we'll just battle our way along doing our best.

Dont disagree with this Macca - the Crows wont play for draft picks. However, people need to see that in general the top draft picks = best players

 

[Blue Red and Gold]

On the other hand.....how would you like Riewoldt at CHF for the Crows? Or Cooney or Ball in the middle? Or Judd on the wing.......

Of course you would love it, but is it worth it?

I do not want Adelaide to be a bottom 4 club on a regular basis.
Look at the Saints, they have some top players and are expected to win the premiership soon and I think they will, but they will have their knockers saying they have only done it because they were ********house for so long. Do you want to win a premiership like that? I sure as hell dont, I have too much pride in the AFC for them to do that. This is why the Brisbane game cut so deep, there was no pride in the club and I do not want to see this again.

 

[Stiffy_18]

Of course you can get good players from 5 onwards and you can rebuild a club. However I would think it is better to take the bottem 4 way for long term success.

You get some fairly solid players:

Deledio
Roughead
Griffin
Tambling

Cooney
Walker
Sylvia
Ray

Goodard
Wells
Brennan
Walsh

Hodge
Ball
Judd
Polak

Geelong have done just fine without ever getting a priority pick

There is 2 ways of doing this, mediocre way or competative way. I know which one I would take.

 

[Stiffy_18]

Grant and Hird situation are rare, but in this day and age its even more uncommen for a 'very good player' to be looked over.

There is just so much people watching and rating the young types.

I agree to a point but Kane Johnson (pick 27), Simon Black (pick 31), Mal Michael (Rookie List), Daniel Kerr (pick 18), Kane Cornes (pick 20), Chad Fletcher (Rookie List) are just some of the players taken lateish who form a very good backbone of a side. Sure your strike rate should be better with a top 4 pick BUT if you look at the stats there are quite a few failures in the top 4-5 picks. I mean Lets look no further than Collingwood picking up Josh Fraser (Pick 1) and you lot picking up Fiora (pick 3). Both of those have been rated EXTREMELY highly in that draft BUT they haven't lived up to the expectations.

Top 4 picks doesn't neccessarily translate into champion players

 

[tinman]

I agree arrowman just look at Lloyd and Hird.

Very late draft picks. Granted you must have a bit of luck in getting such talent late, but no one picked them earlier so who where the top 3 picks in thier draft.

I think a LOT has changed since 1990 and all of the clubs are far more professional in assessing talent and their draft selections. That does't mean some diamonds aren't available late (ie. Johncock).

The 1990 PSD must surely rate as the worst of all time. Pickings were lean indeed. The only players besides Hird to come out of that draft with any longevity were sel. 36 Spider Burton (drafted by WCE but played all his AFL footy subsequently at Freo and Kangaroos) sel. 49 Nick Daffy and sel.92 (after Hird) Jamie Shanahan. The only other noteworthy selection was Allen Jackovich at no.6 to Melbourne.

 

[Stiffy_18]

I think a LOT has changed since 1990 and all of the clubs are far more professional in assessing talent and their draft selections. That does't mean some diamonds aren't available late (ie. Johncock).

No argument there but for as long as there is Draft, good players will be picked up late. There are some very good young players selected recently that have been taken latish based on their talents. Players like Kane Cornes, Mark Coughlan, Daniel Kerr and Dal Santo .... are some names taken with reasonable picks. And some of those players are much better than some players taken earlier than them.

Again I say, Geelong has never relied on priority (top 4) picks to rebuild their team. They have been competative and they have one of the best young teams going around. they are one KF short of being a sensational team.

 

[macca23]

No argument there but for as long as there is Draft, good players will be picked up late. There are some very good young players selected recently that have been taken latish based on their talents. Players like Kane Cornes, Mark Coughlan, Daniel Kerr and Dal Santo .... are some names taken with reasonable picks. And some of those players are much better than some players taken earlier than them.

Again I say, Geelong has never relied on priority (top 4) picks to rebuild their team. They have been competative and they have one of the best young teams going around. they are one KF short of being a sensational team.

I don't think anybody doubts that you can get good players with late draft picks, Stiffy. That will always be the case.

What you can't possibly get are the absolute stand-outs with late picks - players such as Riewoldt, Judd, Hodge, Ball, Cooney and so on. And these will inariably be the gun KPP's and gun mid-fielders.

Just to prove the point Geelong have built up a handy team of mid-fielders, but because they haven't skimmed the bottom consistently, they don't have any gun KPP's other than Scarlett.

 

[Stiffy_18]

Simon Black?????

Also lets not forget that Mark Coughlan was one of the favourites for Brownlow a couple of years back (albeit at the start of the season that was ruined by injury) but he has been slowed down by injuries.

I would rather have a champion team than a team of champions . Who is this gun midfielder that Port had last year????? They were all very good players who played as a team.

You pointed out that Geelong don't have good KPP apart from Scarlett but lets remember back that Cats always selected midfielders and overlooked big fellas for some reason. They have been doing it for yonks. They could have picked up key forwards with their earlier picks but always opted for midfielders.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Again I say, Geelong has never relied on priority (top 4) picks to rebuild their team. They have been competative and they have one of the best young teams going around. they are one KF short of being a sensational team.

Aaaaah the father/son - stories circulating here that Nathan Ablet at 6' 4" could be an absolute star - apparrenty kicked 4 goals last week in VFL and just oozed class.

Where are our father/sons - no-0ne from 20 years of SANFL that can be considered (know the Gibbs and Aishes ) - bit disappointing really.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Just to prove the point Geelong have built up a handy team of mid-fielders, but because they haven't skimmed the bottom consistently, they don't have any gun KPP's other than Scarlett.

Now you see that's a mis-conception, they have opted not to take what have turned out to be gun KPP opting instead for the midfielders.

 

[Stiffy_18]

Aaaaah the father/son - stories circulating here that Nathan Ablet at 6' 4" could be an absolute star - apparrenty kicked 4 goals last week in VFL and just oozed class.

Where are our father/sons - no-0ne from 20 years of SANFL that can be considered (know the Gibbs and Aishes ) - bit disappointing really.

Yeah but thats the luck of the draw. If Gibbs lives up to the hype then we will also have a gun father/son player but reality is you can rebuild withouth being a bottom 4 side.

 

[jo172]

I think the player that proves the strength of mid-draft picks the most is Lenny Hayes. He was taken with pick 11 in the 98 national draft. This is lower than other Saints pick ups such as Riedwvolt, Koschitzke, Goddard, Ball, X. Clarke, R Clarke, Daniel Healy and Michael Frost.

But in 2004 he has been the most sucessful captain of the Saints since 1997. IMHO of the above mentioned players only Riedwolt and perhaps Koschitzke will be equal to Hayes. While players like the Clarke brothers and Goddard have got great athletic abilities and amazing aerobic capacity they will probably never be one of the premier midfielders in the competition such as Hayes.

Look at the Crows. The players that have carried our midfield since say 1999 are Andrew Mcleod (Traded for Chris Groom, pffft), Mark Ricciutto (Zone selectoin at 91?), Simon Goodwin (Pre Season pick 18), Tyson Edwards (Pre Season Pick 21), Kane Johnson (National Draft Pick 27) and Tyson Stenglein (National Draft pick 29) You'll note most of these players came from midrange national draft picks or good use of pre season draft picks.

However our first round picks since 1995 have been Brent Williams (7 Games), Tom Gilligan (3 Games), Lance Piciaone (4 Games), Brett Burton (Still on list), Lawrence Angwin (the less said the better), Brent Reilly (Still on list), Fergus Watts (Still On List)

As that shows backing up my earlier point of the crows first round draft picks of the last 10 years only 3/6 are still on the list which ia about an equal strike rate for our mid range and pre season draft picks

 

[WaynesWorld19]

And to support that argument Cam Wood taken by Brisbane at 18 ??? when predicted in some circles as top 6?

 

[Stiffy_18]

And to support that argument Cam Wood taken by Brisbane at 18 ??? when predicted in some circles as top 6?

I heard Lethal on SEN this morning and he gave the lad a HUGE wrap. He said he is the best skilled young ruckman he has seen in a long time. Really spoke VERY highly of him. Lethal said that in 5 year time he will be a premier ruckman of the comp.

 

[crowsarethebest]

I heard Lethal on SEN this morning and he gave the lad a HUGE wrap. He said he is the best skilled young ruckman he has seen in a long time. Really spoke VERY highly of him. Lethal said that in 5 year time he will be a premier ruckman of the comp.

Interesting Stiffy... I wonder what were our reasons were for not picking woods.. instead picking Meeson?

 

[WaynesWorld19]

I heard Lethal on SEN this morning and he gave the lad a HUGE wrap. He said he is the best skilled young ruckman he has seen in a long time. Really spoke VERY highly of him. Lethal said that in 5 year time he will be a premier ruckman of the comp.

Stiffy I don't think that is surprising - we all rated him very highly pre draft and those predictions were being made by independant people in the know.

What is surprising is that with so many clubs looking for "quality" big fellas how did he drop to 18.

What happened to St KIldas policy of picking best available
They have to walk the walk, not just talk the talk.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Interesting Stiffy... I wonder what were our reasons were for not picking woods.. instead picking Meeson?

Think they rated on a par, Meeson AFL ready sooner but IMO has more agression (which I like in bigmen) and maybe a bit more flexible in terms of positions he could play.

There also had to be a question on who was going to shape up physically the better - bit of a question on Cam given his extremely light frame?

 

[Bentleigh]

Geelong have done just fine without ever getting a priority pick

There is 2 ways of doing this, mediocre way or competative way. I know which one I would take.

Indeed. Geelong have done a great job by not botteming out but most people would grant Saint Kilda have a better list of youth.

However there side is based on the 2001 drat with James Bartel was picked up at 8, James Kelly 17 and Charlie Gardiner + Steve Johnson first (or close to) rounders. Gary Ablett would have gone top 10 but was taken under the f/s.

Joel Corey & Kane Tenace types also went top 10.

I agree to a point but Kane Johnson (pick 27), Simon Black (pick 31), Mal Michael (Rookie List), Daniel Kerr (pick 18), Kane Cornes (pick 20), Chad Fletcher (Rookie List) are just some of the players taken lateish who form a very good backbone of a side. Sure your strike rate should be better with a top 4 pick BUT if you look at the stats there are quite a few failures in the top 4-5 picks. I mean Lets look no further than Collingwood picking up Josh Fraser (Pick 1) and you lot picking up Fiora (pick 3). Both of those have been rated EXTREMELY highly in that draft BUT they haven't lived up to the expectations.

Top 4 picks doesn't neccessarily translate into champion players

Indeed, but like I said, you can get good players late. However the Black, Johnson, Kerr types were still taken fairly high.

I have stated there is, albet a slim chance of a top 4 not making it to the elite tier of player Josh Fraser, Fiora types but at 2 & 4 went Pavlich and Haslbey. You have a much higher strike rate of success with top 5 and to a lesser extent top 10 picks.

But once again, the draft has changed alot. Each year with so much assesment of the players there is less chance of getting gems late.

but reality is you can rebuild withouth being a bottom 4 side.

Of course you can. My point, if you continue to rebuild from midtable rather than bottom 4 surly there is less chance of being as succesful as a side which has had a couple worse years ladder wise.

 

[Bentleigh]

I think the player that proves the strength of mid-draft picks the most is Lenny Hayes. He was taken with pick 11 in the 98 national draft. This is lower than other Saints pick ups such as Riedwvolt, Koschitzke, Goddard, Ball, X. Clarke, R Clarke, Daniel Healy and Michael Frost.

But in 2004 he has been the most sucessful captain of the Saints since 1997. IMHO of the above mentioned players only Riedwolt and perhaps Koschitzke will be equal to Hayes. While players like the Clarke brothers and Goddard have got great athletic abilities and amazing aerobic capacity they will probably never be one of the premier midfielders in the competition such as Hayes.

Luke Ball is a better player than Hayes. Goddard is only in his 3rd year. He will be a better player also one would think. Pick 11 is still rather high. Mid first round you'd expect to get a very solid player.

Look at the Crows. The players that have carried our midfield since say 1999 are Andrew Mcleod (Traded for Chris Groom, pffft), Mark Ricciutto (Zone selectoin at 91?), Simon Goodwin (Pre Season pick 18), Tyson Edwards (Pre Season Pick 21), Kane Johnson (National Draft Pick 27) and Tyson Stenglein (National Draft pick 29) You'll note most of these players came from midrange national draft picks or good use of pre season draft picks.

However our first round picks since 1995 have been Brent Williams (7 Games), Tom Gilligan (3 Games), Lance Piciaone (4 Games), Brett Burton (Still on list), Lawrence Angwin (the less said the better), Brent Reilly (Still on list), Fergus Watts (Still On List)

As that shows backing up my earlier point of the crows first round draft picks of the last 10 years only 3/6 are still on the list which ia about an equal strike rate for our mid range and pre season draft picks

You are using examples from 10 years ago. Once again yes, you had your Grants & Hirds at steals late in the draft but today, and more so in the future it is less lilkly to occur.

And to support that argument Cam Wood taken by Brisbane at 18 ??? when predicted in some circles as top 6?

Wood I beleive is a bad example to use for trying to back the point we dont really know how strong players are rated. First off, he is a ruckman thus normally not drafted in the first handful.

He should be a gun but is 4/5 years away. Alot of clubs would have overlooked him due to wanting a player with a more imidate impace. Next off he is a beanpole ruckman, which may come good yet has abit of risk. Messen types look to have more mongral and will be stronger types.

On top of that he looks like only being able to play ruck while Pattison, Messen types should be able to fill other KPs, CHF espcially.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Yeah but thats the luck of the draw. If Gibbs lives up to the hype then we will also have a gun father/son player but reality is you can rebuild withouth being a bottom 4 side.

As I have ALWAYS said and fiercely supported

And the other "tired" philosophy is that you need 5 years to rebuild - crap!
Not in todays AFL!

 

[Bentleigh]

As I have ALWAYS said and fiercely supported

And the other "tired" philosophy is that you need 5 years to rebuild - crap!
Not in todays AFL!

5 years is about right imo.

Luke Ball is now into his 4th season (same as Hodge + Judd) and is still not into his prime. The Saints captain his 5th.

To use Richmond as an example with 1/2 the list under 22, about 15 under 19 years of age. With this in mind and Deledio now 17 years of age how long untill you want the kid to start taking it to the big boys?

With the current state of Hawks & Richmond how long, if you deny the 5 years rebuilding fan how long untill those clubs should be pushing for finals and then top 4?

Saying that I do agree a few minor changes can be able to help a club alot.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Wood I beleive is a bad example to use for trying to back the point we dont really know how strong players are rated. First off, he is a ruckman thus normally not drafted in the first handful.

He should be a gun but is 4/5 years away. Alot of clubs would have overlooked him due to wanting a player with a more imidate impace. Next off he is a beanpole ruckman, which may come good yet has abit of risk. Messen types look to have more mongral and will be stronger types.

On top of that he looks like only being able to play ruck while Pattison, Messen types should be able to fill other KPs, CHF espcially.

On the contrary good ruckman are normally in high demand.

I can understand your argument and those are probably the same rason we went for Meeson.

But you still cannot escape that Wood was certainly a top 10 pick and certainly better than #18 - Brisbane grand Finalists pick up another bargain!

Question: Pattison was not that highly rated (I mean at the number you took him) hows he shaping up even at this early stage?

 

[WaynesWorld19]

5 years is about right imo.

Luke Ball is now into his 4th season (same as Hodge + Judd) and is still not into his prime. The Saints captain his 5th.

To use Richmond as an example with 1/2 the list under 22, about 15 under 19 years of age. With this in mind and Deledio now 17 years of age how long untill you want the kid to start taking it to the big boys?

With the current state of Hawks & Richmond how long, if you deny the 5 years rebuilding fan how long untill those clubs should be pushing for finals and then top 4?

Saying that I do agree a few minor changes can be able to help a club alot.

Yes but Richmond was run down over such a long period - yet IMO you still have a core of very good players.

My disregard of this tired 5 year rebuilding philosophy is based on Adelaide (who have consistently been around the mark without high picks), Carlton who are thought to finalist material this year, 2 years after being an absolute basket case and with NO draft picks) and Melbourne (who are near the bottom one year and finalist next year ???)

 

[Bentleigh]

On the contrary good ruckman are normally in high demand.

I can understand your argument and those are probably the same rason we went for Meeson.

But you still cannot escape that Wood was certainly a top 10 pick and certainly better than #18 - Brisbane grand Finalists pick up another bargain!

Question: Pattison was not that highly rated (I mean at the number you took him) hows he shaping up even at this early stage?

Wood was passed up by AFL clubs 17 times. Im sure he will come good and would love him at Tigerland.

Pattison looks average by all accounts atm. I didnt see the game today (where the hell is Morwell?) and he didnt get a touch vs the Pies, to be fair he has was only on for literally 90 odd secounds.

He training has sposed to be fair. I heard pre-draft he was rated by some the best tall behind Franklin & Roughead. I would have prefered a Bate, Messen (or even Wood ) but Wallace great love of Darcy; mobile, ruckman with good motors which can also play forward ment he was always likly to come to the club.

Yes but Richmond was run down over such a long period - yet IMO you still have a core of very good players.

My disregard of this tired 5 year rebuilding philosophy is based on Adelaide (who have consistently been around the mark without high picks), Carlton who are thought to finalist material this year, 2 years after being an absolute basket case and with NO draft picks) and Melbourne (who are near the bottom one year and finalist next year ???)

a

Agreed mate. For the Hawks, Tigers types I feel 4/5 years is about right. However, for clubs in a reasonable situation - Crows/Freo etc. only minor changes could bring success.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Wood was passed up by AFL clubs 17 times. Im sure he will come good and would love him at Tigerland.

Pattison looks average by all accounts atm. I didnt see the game today (where the hell is Morwell?) and he didnt get a touch vs the Pies, to be fair he has was only on for literally 90 odd secounds.

He training has sposed to be fair. I heard pre-draft he was rated by some the best tall behind Franklin & Roughead. I would have prefered a Bate, Messen (or even Wood ) but Wallace great love of Darcy; mobile, ruckman with good motors which can also play forward ment he was always likly to come to the club.

To be fair to pattison he's young, first year and realistically you would expect him even to spend some time in the VFL reserves - such is the time required to develop bigmen.

And this is my angst with Richmond - in a year strong on bigmen (who take longer to develop) Richmond go small and next year is mean't to be a midfielders draft and you'll need to get some talls.

IMO Hawthorn had the better strategy although your still better off for talls ATS than Hawthorn, so need may not have been so great.