AFL 2014 ROUND 2

[Lensen]

with the move for richmond today this definitely has a "richmond letting punters down" feel about it

still a no bet game for me

 

[GROTTO]

This - the higher team SHOULD win but they rarely do.

I have an inherent bias where I am underselling my team, but Port should win here, we are still missing quite a few players.

 

[GROTTO]

The only benefit of this game being on a Thursday night, is the opportunity to at least recoup any potential losses over the remainder of the round.

 

[Lensen]

The only benefit of this game being on a Thursday night, is the opportunity to at least recoup any potential losses over the remainder of the round.

chasing losses is a terrible reason to bet

 

[GROTTO]

chasing losses is a terrible reason to bet

I know it is a cardinal sin of punting, I was being factitious.

 

[chrisdon16]

Call me crazy but I seriously think Essendon are a big chance to knock off the Hawks. They're up and about, all the BS with Hird is over. People are saying North played bad last week, I say Dons just plained owned them, Thompson owned Scott too. Hawks were average at best in the first 3 quarters against a under 21 Lions team. Big chance in my book (Not just saying that because I'm a Dons supporter)

 

[Jatz]

Call me crazy but I seriously think Essendon are a big chance to knock off the Hawks. They're up and about, all the BS with Hird is over. People are saying North played bad last week, I say Dons just plained owned them, Thompson owned Scott too. Hawks were average at best in the first 3 quarters against a under 21 Lions team. Big chance in my book (Not just saying that because I'm a Dons supporter)

Yes but did you see what happened when they turned up for a quarter? If they play even a half of football at that level, I can't see you getting anywhere near them. Just my opinion of course.

 

[_Buffalo_]

Okay Sebastian's, after taking last week off I'm back this week to anal penetrate the bookies once again!!!


I think Carlton wins tonight!!!! Richmond are over rated and despite their good midfield I think Carlton owns them tonight by 1-39.
However we learn from mistakes and this is why I take Carlton SU


3 units ($3000) on Carlton to win !!!!!



Follow my bets and give Tom Waterhouse a facial!!!!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I think taking Carlton tonight has value.

 

[Thedeftouch]

with the move for richmond today this definitely has a "richmond letting punters down" feel about it

I've been on both sides of those, but I'm on the yellow and black team tonight for fairly obvious reasons. Carlton have done pretty well against Richmond but they will be a different side sans Judd, Walker and Betts. It's also a very bad sign that they were completely out of steam in the fourth quarter of round one. Richmond are better rested, playing at relatively full strength, and have a tendency to play opposite to their prior week's form.

 

[Nothing]

I know it is a cardinal sin of punting, I was being factitious.

fac·ti·tious (făk-tĭsh′əs)
adj.
1. Produced artificially rather than by a natural process.
2. Lacking authenticity or genuineness; sham: speculators responsible for the factitious value of some stocks.

fa·ce·tious (fə-sē′shəs)
adj.
Playfully jocular; humorous: facetious remarks.

 

[stewie griffen]

Tigers ht/ft

 

[Jatz]

I've been on both sides of those, but I'm on the yellow and black team tonight for fairly obvious reasons. Carlton have done pretty well against Richmond but they will be a different side sans Judd, Walker and Betts. It's also a very bad sign that they were completely out of steam in the fourth quarter of round one. Richmond are better rested, playing at relatively full strength, and have a tendency to play opposite to their prior week's form.

All valid points except that. They played 3 hours before us in the first week in tricky conditions on the GC. We played indoors. How are they better rested?

Carlton out to 2.60 on sportsbet. With that refunding quarter bet, definitely worth a flutter.

 

[Lensen]

fa·ce·tious (fə-sē′shəs)
adj.
Playfully jocular; humorous: facetious remarks.

fun fact: one of the few words that contains all the vowels in order

All valid points except that. They played 3 hours before us in the first week in tricky conditions on the GC. We played indoors. How are they better rested? .

not that i really agree with "better rested", but it was 24 hours

 

[TheKanga]

2u on Carlton @ 2.40 (sportsbet)

 

[sneak]

1u carl rich under 151 @5.50 earlier today

 

[Jatz]

fun fact: one of the few words that contains all the vowels in order


not that i really agree with "better rested", but it was 24 hours

Ahh yep, my bad. Wiped that from my memory

Two late outs for the Blues btw,

Krezer, Watson out.

Buckley, Rowe in.

 

[lion4life]

Taking the following tonight

2U Carlton H2H @ 2.60
0.5U Ellard FGS @ 26.00
0.5U Vickery FGS Tigers @ 7.00
0.5U Mclean Most Possessions over Grigg, Conca, Curnow, Ellis, Robinson, Lucas, Thomas @ 6.00
0.5U Conca AFL DT over Ellis, Waite, Curnow, Houli, Robinson, Riewoldt @ 5.00
1U Cotchin AFL DT over Deledio, Murphy, Martin, Gibbs, Simpson, Mclean, Grigg @ 4.50
2U Cotchin over 27.5 disposals @ 1.80
0.5U Carlton/under 183.5 @ 4.90
0.25U Carlton 40+ @ 11.00

 

[jefffff34]

Murphy to get 30+ possessions.
Riewoldt to get 3+ goals.
Cotchin to get more possessions than Deledio.

Multied to odds of $14.75.
$10 on to win $147.50

Rationale
Murphy to get 30 possessions or more - whilst admittedly this has only happened once in his last 26 games (and 13 in a row), I expect Murphy to get a bit more inside ball due to the wet conditions in Melbourne this afternoon. He has also reached 30 in three of his last seven matches versus Richmond.
Riewoldt to get 3 goals or more - has gone five games in a row without reaching three goals, this is his longest streak since 2008-09. He is due and has a score to settle vs Carlton, only kicking three goals in his last four games against them.
Cotchin to get more possessions than Deledio - it has happened in nine of the last 11 games that they have both played.

 

[Jatz]

Murphy is playing inside mid with Judd's absence, can't see him collecting that many. I'd guess low 20's.

Riewoldt has never performed on Jamo. Not sure why this would change all of a sudden, especially with Hardwick saying he will play in the 'forward half'.

The Cotchin one should definitely get up you would have thought.

 

[bombers21]

Richmond have a better team, showed much more desire in round 1 and therefore I've loaded up on

Richmond at the line (-8.5)

 

[Lensen]

Murphy to get 30+ possessions.
Riewoldt to get 3+ goals.
Cotchin to get more possessions than Deledio.

Multied to odds of $14.75.
$10 on to win $147.50

did you have any luck with sportingbet allowing the goalkickers h2hs to be multi'd?

 

[jefffff34]

did you have any luck with sportingbet allowing the goalkickers h2hs to be multi'd?

No they said last week it was an error which I cashed in on, I tried Centrebet but it is the same.

 

[happy punter]

Tigers -10.5 over Blues @ 1.93 (2 units)

 

[Lensen]

No they said last week it was an error which I cashed in on, I tried Centrebet but it is the same.

more like you changed how they do things by winning last week. they did a similar thing when i made $$ off the ben reid FGS off Q2,3,4 in the lions game up here last year - the next week suddently no more $41 shots in these markets

 

[TheKanga]

Despite Carlton's late outs i still feel good about a Blues win.
Richmond are overrated on BF
Even in the event of a Richmond win, Carlton should lead at one of the changes.